Trials And Tribulations

Trials Day looked to hold Festival clues aplenty, with the 2nd tier Gold Cup contenders doing battle in the Argento to see if anything could throw down a serious challenge to Long Run and Kauto Star, Big Buck's attempting to see off all-comers for the 15th successive time, a terrific Triumph Hurdle trial, a few promising prospects in the Neptune Trial, plus three competitive handicaps.

The Triumph Hurdle Trial provided a thrilling finish, with Pearl Swan just getting the better of Grumeti at the line, only for the result to be reversed in the Stewards' Room. Whether he should have lost the race and whether Ruby Walsh should have got a three day ban are issues for another debate, though Walsh did indicate that he would appeal the ban which rules him out of Betfair Hurdle day at Newbury and the Irish Hennessy.  What is for certain is that he improved hugely on his previous form, a novice hurdle win just nine days ago. Nicholls also appears confident that there is more to come, with this very much a fact finding mission, and he will go straight to the Triumph now. Grumeti was bidding to atone for his mishap at Newbury ten days previously and looked to be travelling the best until Pearl Swan came to challenge. He battled well and connections suggested that a sounder surface would suit him better. He will have one more run before re-opposing in the Triumph. Hollow Tree ran an honourable race and he is likely to give another good account of himself in March, if falling just a little short of the very top level. The disappointment was Baby Mix, so impressive at the course back in December, who trailed in last of the six runners. It is possible that he is flattered by that performance and he has questions to answer now. Both the front two remain open to improvement but my suspicion is that both might find a couple too good in March. Dildar makes his long awaited debut at Taunton on Tuesday, and there is still the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton, the key trial in recent years, to come. It is entirely plausible that we have yet to see the Triumph winner on the track. Given that Pearl Swan is now favourite in places, and that Nicholls appears to regard Dildar as the best of his, the last named might be the one to 'do a Zarkandar' this year.

In the 2m5f Novices' Handicap Chase Bless The Wings ran out a convincing winner. In the process he gave a big boost to the form of Our Mick, who had him well beaten at Kempton over Christmas last time. Our Mick has since gone on to claim a Grade 2 at Haydock so the form was there for all to see. The only surprise was that he was allowed to start as big as 13/2. Favourite was the Nicholls trained That'lldoboy, who came to grief three out when making progress on the outside. He had fallen at Kempton behind Our Mick last time too. It was a race marred by jumping errors with two other fallers, and three unseated riders. It is possible that a few of these will have a say at the Festival in the 2m5f Novices' Handicap Chase but very hard to come to any firm conclusions with so many unknown quantities.

The Giant Bolster won the preceding race 12 months ago and provided something of a demolition job in the 2m5f Grade 3 Handicap Chase this season. His chasing career has been blighted by fencing mishaps but he jumped adequately at the head of affairs for an impressive success. He had always promised to win a handicap of this nature, and I had backed him to do so in the past, but, needless to say, he was free from the weight of my money this time and fairly bolted up! This win was off a mark of 145 and a significant rise in the weights will be in the offing. His likely mark will put him in the picture for graded races given that he must go up at least 10lbs (quite possibly more). He was given quotes of 66/1 for the Gold Cup but I would be more interested for the Ryanair for which he was currently unquoted. If he could find a nice rhythm in front, and so long as his jumping held up, he could well run a nice race. It is worth remembering that Great Endeavour won the Paddy Power off a 2lb higher mark of 147 by 7 lengths and is no bigger than 14/1 for the Ryanair. I have no idea what the plan would be, and no idea whether he was hugely flattered by the result, but the manner of victory was hugely impressive, and his jumping was still only adequate, meaning there might yet be more improvement to come. The honourable Poquelin ran another brave race in defeat at his favourite track, showing he is still no back number but the rest were largely disappointing (mainly due to the hugely impressive winner). Aerial, as I suspected, looks a bit high in the weights.

The Argento Chase promised to throw up a potential rival to Kauto Star and Long Run's vice-like grip on the Gold Cup. The defection of Grands Crus was a disappointment and one I was struggling to explain. By far the best reason I have heard is that a convincing success would have forced Pipe's hand into running him in the Gold Cup. I have always maintained that the Gold Cup idea appears more to do with the owners than the trainer. This would fit in nicely with the explanation above. In his absence I was fairly confident that Captain Chris could beat the remainder. In the end that proved about as wide of the mark as it is possible to be, with the Hobbs horse putting in possibly the strangest performance I have ever seen. He jumped big at the first, but thereafter hurled himself right handed at his fences in the manner of a horse that had completely lost the plot. He was pulled up as if something was amiss, but later reported to be fine. I find that very hard to believe because that was surely the performance of a horse with problems, whether they be physical or mental, and I will need to see a much improved effort before I could back him again. It was a little concerning that connections were eyeing up the Ascot Chase, just 3 weeks away, for his next start because if he were mine a thorough investigation would be of paramount importance. And by thorough I mean bone scans/x-rays and anything else the vets could throw at him. His Arkle success promised so much because I felt certain he would be seen to better effect over further. His King George run was adequate, if a little disappointing, but his performance here was alarming and worrying in equal measure. I can only hope that he gets back on track to fulfil the potential that I am sure he has. With Captain Chris out of the race it turned into a race between those who had already proven themselves not up to the task (in my opinion of course because plenty of others would argue that Captain Chris had done the same in the King George). Diamond Harry looked light in the paddock and the argument that he would improve for the run looked as fanciful as I suggested. I suspect he will always be seen best when fresh given that he doesn't hold his condition well. If he were mine I would be priming him for a repeat bid in the Hennessy in November first time out. Time For Rupert has always been overrated on the back of chasing home Big Buck's in the World Hurdle back in 2010 and his bubble was finally burst good and proper in this. Connections even suggested that they might give up on the Gold Cup idea with the horse clearly some way below the required level. He is slow and soft ground and a proper test of stamina will see him to best effect. Knockara Beau ran his usual honest race in 3rd, staying on strongly past beaten horses. He seems to stay all day, and handle good ground. His mark of  140 (assuming he doesn't get raised but he might well do) would make him attractive in the 3m Festival handicap and in the Scottish National. Tidal Bay briefly looked threatening but two awkward jumps at the last two fences put paid to his chances. A bid at the Bowl at Aintree was suggested with connections certain he is not good enough for the Gold Cup. Any Currency and The Sawyer were outclassed. That leaves us with just two more to discuss, the winner Midnight Chase, and Little Josh. Midnight Chase is an honourable horse but is at best a 160 (or thereabouts) performer which leaves him with a good deal (20lbs on official ratings) to find to challenge the market leaders in the Gold Cup. He is worth his chance in the field but 16/1 or even 20/1 makes little appeal for me. I can see him filling 4th or 5th as he did last year. The eyecatcher in the race was undoubtedly Little Josh. He travelled best of all until his stamina blatantly gave way rounding the home turn. He is one to consider for the 2m5f Handicap at the Festival, or even the Ryanair (33/1). With any luck the Gold Cup and Grand National ambitions voiced by his trainer will be long forgotten by now given he was as blatant a non-stayer as your are ever likely to see. This race is supposed to be a Gold Cup Trial and I suppose it was to a certain extent. In my opinion it just proved that none of these are up to the required level for chasing's Blue Riband. However, it did provide plenty of clues for other, lesser, Festival targets. 

Broadbackbob was a warm order for the Neptune Novices' Hurdle but had to give best to the Alan King trained maiden Batonnier. This success completed a treble on the card for the King/Hutchinson combo and no doubt Choc Thornton is cursing his luck on the sidelines. He is fast improving but had been no match for the sidelined Barbatos on New Year's Day, who in turn had been no match for Fingal Bay and Simonsig at Sandown (admittedly on unsuitable soft ground). This race did more to strengthen the appearance of that form than anything else. Secret Edge ran a pleasing race in 3rd as a juvenile and might be one to consider for the Fred Winter at the Festival. The winner is on an upward curve but I suspect he still has a bit to find with the market principles in the Neptune at the Festival. That fact is reflected in his odds, with him a best priced 20/1 for that race. Hard To Swallow ran another pleasing race in 4th but lost a few lengths on the winner from the New Year form behind Barbatos. I still think that the Sandown form with Fingal Bay and Simonsig is the best on offer and fancy that the 2nd that day might give the favourite something to think about on better ground. He looks a fantastic EW price at 14/1. This is still his intended target, even if I would fancy him strongly for the Supreme as well. I'll be backing wherever he goes.

Next up the Cleeve Hurdle. I can add very little to what has already been said about the unbeatable Big Buck's. He is astonishing, brilliant, clinical, delightful, extraordinary, fantastic and so on. I could easily complete the alphabet but I am sure you get the idea. I am quite sure we will not see his like for a very long time. He idles along until Ruby actually asks him to go and win his race, then proceeds to pick them of with consummate ease to win going away and full of running. It is to his and our advantage that he takes little more than necessary out of himself meaning his career should be prolonged for a season or two yet. It will be one almighty upset if he loses his World Hurdle crown in March. In all the well deserved hysteria as the Big Buck's bandwagon rolls on, the performance of the runner-up has been largely forgotten. However, be in no mistake that Dynaste ran an absolute cracker in defeat. Tom Scudamore adopted more patient tactics than had been employed at Ascot and gave his mount every possible chance. He came well clear of the rest but was ultimately no match for the winner. You take Big Buck's out of the race and he would have been a hugely impressive winner. He remains a really smart prospect and will likely be in the shake-up in the big one in March. But he is one to watch when he goes novice chasing next season.

In the concluding 2m Handicap Hurdle I thought High Storm was overpriced at 25/1 and invested a few pennies EW. He made a bold bid (traded as low as around 5,0 in running) but faded close home to finish 7th. He looks on a fair mark and a similar prize could well be within his grasp. The winner Module did it well and looks a smart recruit for Tom George. It will be interesting to see where they go next. Hinterland travelled well but didn't pick up as expected and stayed on at the one pace into 3rd. He looks like he would appreciate a step up in trip already given that he seems to lack a change of gear but remains a useful chasing prospect for the seasons ahead. He is worth his place in the Triumph (or Supreme, as Nicholls said he was considering that option) when it would not be the biggest surprise to see him run on into a place off a strong pace. The huge eyecatcher was Sivola De Sivola who ran on powerfully from the rear to take 4th. This was a big step back in trip after an extended 3m handicap win at Newbury and he looks primed for a bid at the Pertemps Final in March. His current mark of 132 (assuming he remains unchanged for this effort, though he may not) would have had him on 10-2 last year but missing the cut by 1lb. He might need to go up a couple to ensure a run but is one to keep an eye on and it was no surprise to see him shortened into 10/1 favourite for the race.

Plenty of clues on offer but my immediate impression was that any winners would come in the handicaps at the Festival, Big Buck's aside. Did I see a Gold Cup winner? Definitely not (unless Big Buck's is switched to fences that is). Did I see a Neptune winner? Probably not. Did I see a Triumph winner? Possibly, but probably not. A very competitive card and a few conclusions to be drawn with the Festival drawing ever nearer.

A Grade 1 At Last

The Victor Chandler Chase promised to hold any number of clues about the 2m Championships at the Festival with Finian's Rainbow representing the more established division (though himself only a second season chaser) and Al Ferof the much vaunted crop of novices. Nicky Henderson's charge was the favourite on the back of 5 wins over fences, with his only defeat coming in the Arkle at last year's Festival. Al Ferof was next best for the young pretenders. However, this was no two horse race with established Grade 1 performers in Somersby, Gauvain, Wishfull Thinking and Forpadydeplasterer all taking their chance. However, I hoped that one of the favourites would win because the rest had an 'exposed at the top level' look to them. In contrast Finian's Rainbow was a potential threat to Sizing Europe's Champion Chase crown, and Al Ferof fancied to upset Arkle market leaders Sprinter Sacre and Peddlers Cross. In the end the result was something of a disappointment in my opinion, with Somersby, so often the bridesmaid, finally able to win his first Grade 1.

Somersby has been consistently exposed at the top level before and I cannot believe that he has improved to win this. I have him down as a 160 rated horse (or thereabouts). I definitely think that his 166 Official Rating is too high anyway. That was largely achieved on the back of his defeats to Master Minded, another who has been consistently overrated for a couple of seasons. However, he seems to like Ascot so I think it is fair to say that he has run up to around this level.

Finian's Rainbow is rated 157 and, with him being beaten by 1 1/4 lengths, it would appear that he has run to a fairly similar level to take 2nd in this. I suspect that he was a little below his mark at Kempton (for obvious reasons) and he has probably improved a few lbs here but certainly not enough improvement for him to be a Champion Chase contender.

I had Al Ferof rated 152 (in my Arkle piece) for his first win at Cheltenham, and similar at Sandown. He was a further 3 and 3/4 lengths behind so it seems that he has run to a broadly similar level too, maybe a few lbs improvement. He was outpaced virtually from the word go and looks for all the world like a step up in trip is what he wants. He won the Supreme with his stamina last year and he will need a similarly fast pace to have any chance in the Arkle.

You could easily rate the race around some of those in behind and push all these ratings up but I don't think that is justified. It is relatively easy to argue that contrary view, and I'm sure some people will, but it's not for me. In my opinion the ratings fall in very nicely using the logic I have applied above. 

Festival Clues

First and foremost, Sizing Europe is starting to look a banker for the Champion Chase. I think his Tingle Creek win his head and shoulders above any other 2m form seen this season and he seems sure to be seen to better effect back on good ground round Cheltenham, his ideal conditions. 

Big Zeb has been beating Forpadydeplasterer by less than he was beaten today and the impression I have got is that Big Zeb isn't the horse he was in his prime. He was beaten in the Champion Chase by Sizing Europe last year by a comfortable 5 lengths and I see no reason why that form should be reversed, especially when Sizing Europe is a year younger. His defeat of Sizing Europe at Punchestown should be largely ignored because it is a track where Sizing Europe has been consistently below his best . This view is confirmed by connections, in particular Andrew Lynch who has said that the track doesn't suit his style of running.

Finian's Rainbow was the only danger I could see purely because of his scope to improve significantly on what he had previously shown. He had every opportunity to put himself firmly into the picture today but failed to do so and couldn't even win the race. This was certainly not the performance of a potential Champion Chaser and his weakness at the finish, both in the Arkle and today (though strangely not at Kempton last time) remains a concern, especially when encountering the Cheltenham hill. He has a lot to prove now and the quotes of 6/1 look far far too short. He has 20lbs to find with Sizing Europe on official ratings and I think that is about right.

I couldn't fancy Somersby for the Champion Chase because he still has a mountain to find with Sizing Europe and I see no reason why he should improve on his 12 1/2 length beating in the race last year. I also think that he will be vulnerable in the Ryanair which will surely be his intended target. He did not need to improve today to win so there is no reason why he should have shortened up in my opinion. He has just run to his usual (admirably consistent) level and that will always leave him vulnerable at the very top, regardless of the trip. Whether there is anything to beat him in the Ryanair is a different matter but I will be keen to find something to take him on with.

Wishfull Thinking was hugely disappointing again and he looks a shadow of the horse that was so impressive at the back end of last season. Connections find themselves between a rock and a hard place in that he will not settle in front and yet his relentless galloping and slick jumping from the front were what won him races last season. It is back to the drawing board after this.

The race obviously had an impact on the Arkle market and I must say that I was surprised to see Al Ferof shorten up into 5/1 in places after this result. Coral were the standouts who pushed him out to 8/1. To my eye he was never travelling and showed that he needs further than 2m. He looked outpaced right from the off. To be fair his jumping held together well until the home straight when it started looking just a little ragged. I have seen comments in quite a few places that he did his Arkle hopes big favours with this performance but I would disagree. I don't for a minute think that he did his chances any harm but I don't think that he improved greatly on anything he has previously shown. I had him rated 152 and he might have improved a few lbs but nothing significant. I just think he will be seen to much better effect over further. Indeed, his trainer Paul Nicholls has tweeted "Dont usually like getting beat but delighted with Al Ferof. Great prep for Arke. Will appreciate further nxt season". I actually thought it was a little disappointing that he couldn't put up more of a race to the leading duo (who are not up to the very top level on what we have seen) but would agree on the second point but I think he would appreciate further this season, let alone next. I know I keep saying that the Arkle is a race that suits stayers and it is. However, the problem that Al Ferof has is that I think Peddlers Cross has more pace than him and will stay just as strongly. Sprinter Sacre has the most pace but after his Supreme effort, the hill remains a concern for me. If Sprinter Sacre does get up the hill then he will be mighty hard to beat, and he might be so far in front that it is irrelevant too. However, I remain of the opinion that if Peddlers Cross runs his race then I think he will win. Provided that he jumps like he did at Bangor, I think it will take a huge performance to beat him in the Arkle. Sprinter Sacre might be capable of that huge performance, but I now don't think that Al Ferof is at 2m.

Conclusion

 

I would be delighted if the form was rated highly by the majority because I don't like it at all. I was disappointed with both Finian's Rainbow and Al Ferof, and, consequently, could not fancy them for their respective Cheltenham targets. Similarly Somersby has been shortened up but without showing any improved form and he will surely be worth opposing in the Ryanair too. Both Finian's Rainbow and Al Ferof had the opportunity to stamp their mark on their Festival targets but both failed to do so. The very fact that Somersby was finally able to win his first Grade 1 at the 8th time of asking, or that this was just his 2nd Graded success in his career (only other in December 2009) tells you all you need to know. Somersby has always been exposed at the very top level so there is no reason to think that the same fate will not befall the horses he has beaten today. His success is thoroughly deserved but I am sure that there are no 2012 Festival winners to take from the race unless there are significant target changes. As for the future, Al Ferof remains a horse of potential when he is upped in trip. 

Why Peddlers Cross Can Win The Arkle.

Since my Arkle preview I have been asked a few times how I could possibly think that Peddlers Cross will be able to reverse his comprehensive defeat at the hands of Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. I was confident that he could in my own mind but the doubts of others prompted me to take a thorough look at the formbook to either confirm that belief or prove myself wrong. I must first apologise for the crude and easily criticised analysis. However, I hope you can appreciate the points that are being made. This is what I found.

First up Peddlers Cross. His first performance is worthless as far as a rating goes with a near 5 length beating of a horse rated 120 worth little more than 130 with a big '+'. His second effort offers a greater insight. Minella Class was rated 148 over hurdles. It was his first start over fences but he jumped very well so there is no reason to think that he recorded a figure much below that. Let us say that he ran to 140 which I think is entirely fair. Peddlers Cross was giving him 10lbs and won easily by 8 lengths. It is not hard to think he is worthy of a rating 20lbs superior to Minella Class leaving him on a figure of 160. I would, therefore, be in agreement with the official handicapper here.  

The easiest way to work out the other form is to use Al Ferof as the benchmark. On his first chase start he beat Astracad by an easy 7 lengths. Astracad has since gone on to win a good handicap at Cheltenham off a mark of 138 and is now rated 145. So Al Ferof would be worthy of a rating around 152 for that first performance at Cheltenham for an easy 7 length beating of a 138 rated horse who is now rated 145. There doesn't seem to be any obvious reason why he should have improved hugely between then and Sandown, indeed he might have recorded a lower figure given that the pace and ground did not suit. He had the 137 rated Lancetto back in 3rd beaten 13 lengths. That would leave the 2nd For Non Stop on around 150 (he's actually rated 151 by the official handicapper), and Al Ferof on 1lb more. This would fit in perfectly with the Sandown performance being a touch below his effort at Cheltenham given that conditions were less in his favour. The Cheltenham race was on good ground with a fast pace which suited ideally. Therefore, that leaves Al Ferof on a peak figure of 152. The handicapper has yet to give him a rating so I cannot see how we compare!

For Non Stop then went on to finish 2nd at Newbury behind Cue Card. But first I must assess the 3^rd that day, Walkon. On his first start at Exeter he had easily beaten the then 142 rated Zaynar by 6 lengths. I should think putting him 8lbs clear would be fair, and would leave him with a figure just 3lb shy of his hurdles mark of 153 on 150. Zaynar then went onto Ascot and showed undoubtedly improved form to beat the 141 rated Frascati Park by 10 lengths. Everything seemed to fall right for him that day and a figure of around 150 appears about right (the handicapper agrees). This once again puts him onto the same mark as he is over hurdles. Notus De La Tour is a little trickier to rate with the only viable handle coming from the 135 rated Lucky William who finished 4th in the Racing Post Novice Chase. He was beaten nearly 7 lengths so that gives Notus De La Tour a figure of around 142. At Exeter he was carrying an 8lb penalty when beaten by Walkon and was nearly 3 lengths behind Zaynar. That would put him on around 140 leaving his weight adjusted figure for that performance at 148. The handicapper has him on 146 and I think it is reasonable to downgrade this form slightly given the subsequent exploits of both Walkon and Notus De La Tour. If I use the handicappers figure of 146 for Notus De La Tour then Walkon drops to 148 and Zaynar to 140 for this effort. I still think his Ascot rating of 150 is fair.

We then come to the Cue Card race. Cue Card beat For Non Stop by 4 lengths giving him 7lbs which would suggest a bare rating of 162. My gut feeling is that is on the high side. Walkon was disappointing after two bad mistakes in the home straight. He lost his form a little last season after a promising start so his running to around 140 (8lbs below his first time out figure) seems fair enough, especially given that he was eased when beaten, and it is easy to see why the official handicapper has him on 150, and I think a 2lb drop would be sensible seeing as I have him only on 148 at Exeter. This all falls into place and lends validity to Cue Card's official figure of 155.

However, given my misgivings about the rating I think it sensible to looks at some of Cue Card's earlier form. On his first start Cue Card beat the 142 rated Micheal Flips by a comfortable 3 and 1/2 lengths. Let us give that performance a rating in the region of 149 (having him value for double the winning distance). I think it is safe to ignore Silviniaco Conti from this analysis because he was unfit. Cue Card then unseated at Cheltenham before just getting touched off by Bobs Worth, giving him 7lbs. They had the 135 rated Mad Moose 35 lengths back in 3rd but he is not a viable yardstick given that he was not ridden out. So here we must return to hurdles ratings. Bobs Worth was rated 152 and Cue Card 155. I think it is fair to say that neither horse ran to their peak with the trip short of Bobs Worth's best. I feel confident in awarding Cue Card a rating of 149, the same he recorded when winning first time, leaving Bobs Worth on 150. If this in then adjusted for the weights Bobs Worth is left on 143. This looks fair seeing as he was beaten just over 5 lengths by the 159 rated Grands Crus up in trip next time who was eased slightly close home. This would give him a figure of around 150 (handicapper has him on 151), meaning he showed 7lbs improvement for the run and the step up in trip.

Cue Card seems to have recorded a new best at Newbury next time when beating For Non Stop and Walkon. The bare form could warrant a big rating (possibly as high as 162 if you believe For Non Stop ran to his official mark of 151) but given the performance and his previous chase form I would be happier with a more conservative appraisal of the form. An improved rating is perfectly plausible given that the trip was more suitable on this occasion. Cue Card's current official mark is 155. If he ran to that level in this then that would push For Non Stop down to a mark of around 145. Given his mistakes a lower figure than his Sandown effort is believable but that does seems a big drop seeing as he looked to appreciate the step up in trip. Walkon was a further 11 lengths behind and I am sure that he was below his Exeter form. His performance here would warrant around 140 which is exactly as I would expect lending a sense of authority to the ratings. I have Minella Class running to a figure of 140 in defeat behind Peddlers Cross but given the way he travelled in this race it is possible he is worthy of more. I suspect this trip was ideal and he might well have gone close. However, he departed too early to be confident about assigning the performance a rating.

It is trickier trying to put a figure on Sprinter Sacre. My gut instinct is about 165. In his first start at Doncaster he beat a 135 rated horse that was eased by 24 lengths with ease. Given both horses were eased to a certain extent I think a figure of round about 155 is the right way to go (already a 6lb improvement on his hurdles peak of 149). This would be supported by the Wayward Lad market which made Peddlers Cross a slight favourite as they would have gone into that race with figures of 160 and 155. The Wayward Lad itself is virtually impossible to rate. If you believe Peddlers Cross ran to form (160) then Sprinter Sacre's easy 16 length beating warrants a huge rating. Both were eased near the finish, possibly Peddlers Cross more, but Sprinter Sacre was not extended either. I think it is therefore reasonable to suggest that the 16 length winning margin is a true reflection of Sprinter Sacre's superiority on the day. If Peddlers Cross ran to his mark of 160 then that makes Sprinter Sacre worthy of a figure of around 175. For all his brilliance, I find that very hard to believe. What is more likely (and this is my opinion now) is that Peddlers Cross was roughly 10lbs below form. That would leave him with a figure of 150, and give Sprinter Sacre a figure of 165, incidentally exactly my gut instinct mentioned earlier. This is open to interpretation but I think that is a fair reflection.

If we look back at past running of the Arkle a figure of 165 would have been sufficient to win 9 of the last 10 renewals. Recent winners were rated after the race; Captain Chris 160, Sizing Europe 160, Forpadydeplasterer 156, Tidal Bay 166, My Way De Solzen 159, Voy Por Ustedes 162, Contraband 153, Well Chief 146, Azertyuiop 161 and Moscow Flyer 159. Interestingly Peddlers Cross' figure of 160 means he has already recorded a figure good enough to win (or dead heat) 7 of the last 10 too. Just goes to prove that this year's novices are as exceptional as they look.

By this analysis I have the list for the Arkle as follows (some are unlikely to run):

Sprinter Sacre - 165
Peddlers Cross - 160 
Cue Card - 155
Al Ferof - 152
For Non Stop - 151
Zaynar - 150
Walkon - 148
Notus De La Tour - 146

As I suggested in my Arkle preview, If you look at the last 5 winners of the race it is apparent that the ability to stay further than 2m is essential:

Captain Chris 160 - Winner over 2m5f over fences.

Sizing Europe 160 - Winner over 2m4f on heavy ground over fences.

Forpadydeplasterer 156 - Only chase win was over 2m on heavy ground but had finished 2nd in two Grade 1s over 2m4f and 2m5f.

Tidal Bay 166 - Grade 2 hurdle winner over 2m4f. Chase winner over 2m4f (twice) and 2m5f. Only chase defeat before the Arkle came over 2m1f at Doncaster.

My Way De Solzen 159 - World Hurdle winner and chase winner over 2m4f and 2m5f on heavy ground. 

With this in mind, If I then factor this in to my ratings which I have derived from the formbook, with my own opinions about each horse’s suitability for the test that the Arkle presents, I arrive at the following figures (only potential Arkle candidates included this time):

Peddlers Cross - 160 (+5lbs for improvement for the track) - 165
Sprinter Sacre - 165 (-5lbs for question marks about the hill) - 160
Al Ferof - 152 (+5lbs for improvement for the track) - 157 
For Non Stop - 151 (Stays the same but doubtful runner) - 151
Cue Card - 155 (-5lbs for finding little off the bridle and the hill) - 150

It has been hyped up to be the best renewal in years and I think it is worthy of all the acclaim. Given the phenomenal strength of this season's novices, I fully expect the 10 year high rating of 166 to be broken in this year's renewal. By my reckoning Sprinter Sacre has already achieved a mark of around the 165 mark, good enough to win 9 of the past 10 renewals, and that was unextended. Furthermore, both Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof recorded their high ratings unextended too, giving an indication of just what might be to come. From the figures above I would think that improvement of 5lb all round would not be inconceivable. It would be no surprise to me if the winner broke the 170 barrier this time around, in fact, I would go so far as to say that I expect it to happen.

At this stage I would conclude that Peddlers Cross wins by 5 lengths (170) from a tiring Sprinter Sacre (165) and a fast finishing Al Ferof (162).

This analysis might be open to interpretation, criticism and even ridicule but one thing cannot be doubted. It does show just what an exceptional crop of 2m novice chasers we have to enjoy, with at least three horses who would have the ability to win most renewals of the race. 

Whatever you think, whichever side of the fence you sit, whoever you want to win, just one thing is of paramount importance. That is that we all enjoy what is a remarkable crop of novice chasers who promise so much for years to come. The three leading contenders all look well capable of recording a figure that would comfortably win virtually any previous renewal of the race. Whatever the outcome it is a race to savour. At this stage I can only hope that they all turn up ready to fight for their lives. Then we can look forward to one hell of a race. 

Jewson Novices' Chase

This race was run for the first time last year with Noble Prince getting the better of Wishfull Thinking. The intermediate trip and its current Grade 2 status can lead to it being considered a bit of a consolation race but I think that is a little unfair, even if there is an element of truth in it. If it gets upgraded to Grade 1 status then I can see it becoming a prestigious heat with the demands of the RSA very taxing on young and inexperienced horses. There are plenty currently quoted who look set to miss the race, especially those at the head of the market, which hopefully leaves the race ripe for some antepost value.

Peddlers Cross (6/1) - I have covered him in depth in the Arkle preview and that is his target. I'd be surprised and disappointed if he came here.

Grands Crus (7/1) - Connections are considering running in either the Gold Cup (70%) or the RSA (30%). A run in this seems unlikely.

Al Ferof (8/1) - He is another with the Arkle as his primary target, and the Champion Chase looks a more likely alternative than this.

Silviniaco Conti (8/1) -  He is shorter in the betting for this than for the Arkle or the RSA. I have backed him for the latter heat at 20/1 so am hoping that he goes there. Trainer Paul Nicholls suggested in the aftermath of his 2nd place in the Feltham that he might even miss the Festival this year. At that time Grands Crus looked to be headed for the RSA Chase, and Nicholls was keen to avoid a rematch. However, with Grands Crus seemingly more likely to run in the Gold Cup, and Sonofvic disappointing in the Dipper, I am very hopeful that Silviniaco Conti will be allowed to take his chance in the RSA. Would have a strong chance in this but I think he will bypass it.

Cue Card (10/1) - Was favourite for this race for a time but after his win at Newbury he looks set for the Arkle. He has always promised to be better for a step up in trip but I am not so sure. He was weak at the finish in the Supreme, weak when beaten by Bobs Worth at Newbury over 2m4f, and being closed down all the while when winning last time over 2m3f. He does not find a lot off the bridle in my view, he jumps poorly and I would be keen to oppose him wherever he goes.

Sir Des Champs (12/1) - Unbeaten since switching to jumps. That run has included two hurdle races, a handicap hurdle win at the Festival and two chases, jumping well on both starts. However, he looks sure to benefit from a step up in trip. He was a long way back in the Martin Pipe before staying on really strongly. I don't think that was a strong race and I suspect he got away with it at the trip. The RSA looks the more obvious target but Gigginstown do have other contenders for that race so he might come here instead. Worthy of respect but think the 2m5f on good ground will be a quick enough test for him.

Solix (12/1) - A smart hurdler last season but was just biding time until he went chasing. Made an adequate start at Ascot but his jumping left a little to be desired and it was the same story back at Cheltenham next time. However, he jumped much better in defeat behind Champion Court last time and looks to be getting his act together. This looks the ideal race for him, a comment which applies to very few of the others.

Bog Warrior (12/1) - Also a possible for the Arkle and the RSA and I should think one of those will be his target if he comes across from Ireland. Very talented but suffered a fall last time and reportedly took a bit of time to get over that. Back on the go now but a doubt for the Irish Arkle which may come too soon. Trainer thinks he needs soft ground.

Walkon (14/1) - Really good first time at Exeter but disappointing last time at Newbury behind Cue Card. Questions to answer now and likely to be stepped up in trip for a tilt at the RSA. If that doesn't come off then he might come back in trip for this. However, his form tailed off last season and it might be the same story this time around.

For Non Stop (14/1) - Yet to win over fences but has twice run well in defeat, finishing 2nd to Al Ferof and filling the same spot behind Cue Card last time. This looks the ideal test for him as he has been staying on strongly on both occasions over shorter trips, plus he showed his best hurdles form over 2m5f too. He seems to jump well enough (though did make mistakes in the home straight at Newbury), and he already looks a better chaser than he was hurdler. One worrying statistic is that he has won just once in 13 starts. Not certain to run at Cheltenham.

Hidden Cyclone (14/1) - Always held in high regard and his only defeat remains a very close 3rd behind First Lieutenant in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle. He made a pleasing start to his chasing career with a comfortable victory at Leopardstown. The RSA is a more likely target but he is by no means certain to travel.

Mossley (14/1) -  Beat Champion Court but behind Join Together at Cheltenham and I must say he was a little disappointing. His jumping has been nothing better than adequate on both starts and he might just fall a little short of the top level over fences. He did find only stablemate Bobs Worth too good in the Albert Bartlett last season and the staying test of the RSA looks more likely.

Champion Court (16/1) - Only 3rd behind Join Together but seemed to relish the drop back in trip and a return to forcing tactics when a good winner of the Dipper. Trainer stated that the RSA will be his target if Grands Crus does not run but if he does then he will go down the handicap route. That seems a perplexing choice with this race, the obvious target in my opinion, not even mentioned. I would like his chances in this and 16/1 is a very good EW price if he were to run. Trainer apparently has other ideas.

Zaynar (16/1) - A one time top class hurdler and he was favourite for the Champion Hurdle at one stage before that infamous defeat at odds of 1/14. Made a fair start to his chasing career and signs that he was returning to something like his best. Those signs were confirmed with an impressive all the way win at Ascot. This trip will suit and if returning to his best (rated 168 over hurdles) then he could go well.

Invictus (20/1) - Started his chasing career with two impressive wins, most notably at Plumpton when he quickened impressively to leave his rivals for dead round the home turn. Slightly disappointing when only 3rd in the Dipper but he was found to have lost a show after the race which might explain that effort. It was no disgrace and that might be as good as he is. He was only rated 122 over hurdles so he has already found significant improvement for the step up to fences.

Minella Class (20/1) - Second to Peddlers Cross at Bangor which was a pleasing effort and was then travelling well when an unlucky slip on landing unshipped David Bass at Newbury. I fancy he would have gone close in that race won by Cue Card. A Grade 1 winner over hurdles and not disgraced when 6th in the Neptune at the Festival. Just suspicion that he might be trip-less with him lacking the toe for 2m but not quite seeing out the 2m5f round Cheltenham.

Notus De La Tour (20/1) - Won two minor races before finishing only 3rd to Walkon at Exeter. A good second to Blackstairmountain in an Irish Grade 1 subsequently but looks to appreciate soft ground. Eligible for the big bonus having won at Plumpton and a handicap may be the chosen route. His current mark of 146 looks fair enough given that he looks set to make a better chaser than he was a hurdler.

Poungach (20/1) - Stays over hurdles for the rest of this season with chasing the aim next term. He is a lovely individual and will make a cracking chaser next season.

First Lieutenant (20/1) -Winner of the Neptune and looked sure to take high rank in the staying chasers this season. Things have not gone entirely to plan with only two wins from five starts. Still shown some very decent form and set to go straight to the RSA when the good ground will suit him better. An unlikely runner here.

Lambro (25/1) - Second to Flemenstar last time over 2m and this 2m5f trip would be more to his liking. A decent horse without looking exceptional and no idea what Mullins' plan is for him. Suspect he might find a few too good here.

Call The Police (25/1) - Very strongly fancied for the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival and was sent off the 7/2 favourite. In the end he trailed in 11th, beaten 25 lengths and was then pulled up at Punchestown. Got back on track with an easy win at Gowran on his fencing debut and looks capable of better. He looks more the type for a handicap.

Kumbeshwar (25/1) - Winner of two from 3 over fences and another eligible for the big Plumpton bonus. Trainer has suggested that the Grand Annual will be his target.

Solwhit (25/1) - Yet to be seen over fences but was very near the top level over hurdles, with only Hurricane Fly too good in Ireland. Also has the Arkle as a possible target but will need experience.

Conclusion - An open looking race and one that is difficult to assess with so many doubts about who will run. I would be keen on Champion Court at 16/1 EW if he were a likely runner but his trainer Martin Keighley has said it will be either the RSA or a handicap for him. Therefore, I think the best bet lies with the horse that was second to him in the Dipper, and came off best at the weights anyway. That horse is Solix. He looks the one ideally suited by the likely conditions and remains open to improvement with his jumping getting better with each start. He has course experience which will stand him in good stead for this. At 12/1 he looks a good EW price seeing as he looks a certain runner barring mishaps. The same cannot be said for many of the others (if any, remarkably) and he seems certain to go off a far shorter price on the day, if not favourite. There is still time for other candidates to emerge, either stepping up in trip from the Arkle or down in trip from the RSA but he looks to hold a strong form chance on current evidence. At the price the risk looks worth taking.

The Arkle

One of my very favourite races and this season's renewal looks right out the top drawer. I was convinced that I knew who the winner was before any of them had even jumped a fence. The answer to the problem was surely Peddlers Cross. He looked the ideal candidate in every possible way, but, after his crushing defeat at the hands of Sprinter Sacre, I must admit to being a little less confident than I was. That is not to say that I think he is a lost cause. Far from it, and I still believe there are plenty of reasons to think that the form can be reversed in March.The Henderson horse looked exceptional that day and he will be a tough nut to crack but there is one potential weakness in particular that I think might count against him in this.

When assessing a race, I like to treat each horse on their merits, rather than being too tied up with 'stats' and 'trends'. I am very much from the 'they are there to be broken' camp. However, when looking back at past winners of the Arkle one crucial similarity immediately jumps out. The last 6 winners are Captain Chris, Sizing Europe, Forpadydeplasterer, Tidal Bay, My Way De Solzen and Voy Por Ustedes. The attribute that links these 6 is stamina. They are all effective at 2m but all of them stay further. Last season I am quite sure Finian's Rainbow was the best potential 2m chaser around, but he was not able to win the Arkle. Instead the stronger stayer Captain Chris was triumphant up the Cheltenham hill. This is maybe overlooked, but its importance cannot be doubted given the overwhelming evidence in support.

Sprinter Sacre (5/2) - Always held in the highest regard at Seven Barrows, and always seen as a chaser in the making. He travelled ominously well in the Supreme but tired late on, blundered at the last, to finish only 3rd. He has jumped extravagantly well on both chase starts, particularly at Kempton when he destroyed Peddlers Cross. He has pace and scope to burn and looks a hugely exciting prospect. In the main, his credentials are difficult to fault but, and I had this view even before he had jumped a fence, he potentially falls down in the one crucial area outlined above. He was a weak horse last season and has no doubt strengthened over the summer, but, nevertheless, his finishing effort in the Supreme and how he came up the hill, or rather how he didn't come up the hill, simply must be a concern to his supporters. It was inconceivable that he would finish a 7 length 3rd coming round the home turn. He went from travelling apparently strongly to treading water in a matter of strides. I have watched the replay many times and he loses in excess of 10 lengths on Al Ferof from the second last to the line. Al Ferof was outpaced in the race so it was not Al Ferof finishing quickly, it was Sprinter Sacre stopping in front. Another doubt is that he has yet to face a battle. He has either won on the bridle or been beaten and his stomach for a fight is at best untested. He found little off the bridle in the Supreme and, because of his free running nature, might always appear to have more in hand than he actually does. On the Kempton evidence he might be good enough to win this without coming off the bridle, but that question mark, plus the much more significant concern about the hill, mean he is opposable at a short price.

Peddlers Cross (6/1) -After his fantastic effort in defeat behind Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle I was utterly convinced that he would win the Arkle this season. The strongly run 2m, with an emphasis on stamina as well as speed, looked tailor made for him. I was also confident that his jumping would be good. And, on both starts at Bangor he looked very good too. He jumped quickly and efficiently, far less flamboyant than Sprinter Sacre, but very satisfactory indeed. That was no surprise because he strikes me as an intelligent horse who knows where his legs are. That all went to pot at Kempton when he belted the first and I think he lost the race there and then. He was always playing catch up as Sprinter Sacre blazed away in front and was never able to bridge the gap. That sharp speed test was never going to play to his strengths and he lost confidence after the first fence mistake. I am sure he jumped the first at Kempton exactly like he jumped at Bangor but was caught out by the stiffer fences. In hindsight it might be suggested that running twice at Bangor was a mistake. He was rattled by that mistake and a bit big and cautious at a few thereafter. He still jumped adequately when he was spot on, but lost ground when he was wrong. That does not concern me greatly because I am sure he will learn from the experience. With that behind him I see no reason  why he cannot jump as fluently as he did on both occasions at Bangor. His Festival form is exceptionally strong, winning the Neptune and finding only Hurricane Fly too good in the Champion Hurdle last season. He relishes the test that the Cheltenham hill provides. The Arkle should, therefore, suit ideally, which cannot be said for his main rival Sprinter Sacre. That one might simply be too good for him, but I find it hard to believe that he is even 10 lengths superior and the Cheltenham hill will give Peddlers Cross every chance of bridging the gap. Furthermore, Donald McCain has since reported that a few issues came to light after the Kempton race. Once those are dealt with I am sure we will see a different horse at Cheltenham.

Al Ferof (7/1) - He is another who fits the stayers profile after finishing strongest of all in the Supreme. He has taken well to fences, jumping with aplomb on both occasions at Cheltenham and Sandown, two of the most difficult tracks. Although he won the Grade 1 Henry VIII at Sandown it was not in impressive fashion. He was made to work hard by For Non Stop, but what was pleasing was the way he negotiated an infamously tricky course. Paul Nicholls originally suggested that the Jewson over 2m5f might be his target but it now appears that the Champion Chase is the main alternative. He is entered in the Victor Chandler at Ascot where he will face Finian's Rainbow. That will tell us more about both where he stands, and where the novices in general stand against the older horses. He, like Peddlers Cross, will be suited by the fast pace, good ground and stiff finish that Cheltenham will most likely provide. However, I think Peddlers Cross has a touch more pace, and will be staying on at least as well at the finish. If he jumps well then he can definitely be in the shake-up but I'm not sure he quite has enough pace for this. I can see him staying on strongly but all too late.

Cue Card (11/1) - Well fancied for the Jewson before a decent effort in a good race at Newbury persuaded connections to target this race. I think the 2m trip will suit him here but my I have one huge concern with him, and that is his jumping. He is awkward at his fences, and even when on a perfect stride, does not jump fluently. More worrying still is that both trainer and jockey appear happy with his current fencing. If they acknowledged that it was an area of weakness then at least you could have confidence that steps were being taken to remedy the quite obvious flaws. The Arkle is a race that puts pressure on jumping and I can see it letting him down in a big way. He also tends to find little for pressure and I am sure he is not good enough to win this without coming off the bridle. I see no reason why he can beat his Supreme conquerors (Sprinter Sacre and Al Ferof) when both of them jump far better.

Menorah (12/1) - Unseated at Exeter when sure to win with a clear round. He was then put back over hurdles but finished a disappointing 5th in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham. Regained the winning thread at  Taunton but again showed jumping frailties when attempting to take the last home with him. He did jump well in the main and has a decent engine. He came up just a little short against the very best over hurdles (5th in the Champion) and my suspicion is that he might find it tough against the very best over fences too. He is another who will relish this test and is worthy of great respect, and ranks above Cue Card for me, but others are preferred.

Blackstairmountain (16/1) - A good hurdler with a Grade 1 win at Punchestown as a novice but short of the very top level in open company thereafter. Has made a smooth transition to fences with two wins from two starts, the last in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase. He looks likely to improve for better ground but you would have to think that a few of these might have too much for him.

For Non Stop (25/1) - Still a maiden over fences but has put up two good efforts in defeat. The first of those was when pushing Al Ferof all the way in the Grade 1 Henry VIII at Sandown, the second behind Cue Card in a good race at Newbury. He is a lively contender but his best hurdles form was over 2m4f and the Jewson looks the obvious choice given the strength of this field. He is good but not exceptional (remarkably only 1 win in 13 starts under rules) and this will take a career best to go close.

Bog Warrior (25/1) - As his name would suggest he relishes the mud and was hugely impressive when running away with the Grade 1 Drinmore. He destroyed a good field that day. He then crashed out early back in trip in the race won by Blackstairmountain, but was travelling strongly at the head of affairs when departing. His form looks strong with Flemenstar (easily beaten into 2nd on his first start) winning twice since. Clearly very talented (unbeaten when completing and held in the highest regard by his trainer) and a really exciting prospect. However, his preference for soft ground is a concern. Indeed, his trainer has suggested that he may not travel if the ground is too quick. Reported to be under the weather after his latest fall and that puts a further doubt on his participation. Also has the option of the RSA if he comes over.

Flemenstar (25/1) - No match for Bog Warrior on his chasing bow but has scored twice since, once by a wide margin. A decent horse no doubt but not the quality of some of these. Trainer has said he will not run because he is a poor traveller.

Solwhit (25/1) - Spent much of last season looking at the back end of Hurricane Fly. He was no match for that one but that is no disgrace at all given The Hurricane is a warm order to retain his hurdling crown. He has yet to be seen over fences but certainly has the ability to excel. He suffered a setback in November which delayed his fencing debut until this month at the earliest. The Arkle might come soon enough for him with no experience over fences yet under his belt.

Walkon (33/1) - Really impressive first time up when smashing Zaynar and Notus De La Tour at Exeter. Those two rivals boosted the form in no uncertain terms by winning a good race at Ascot and finishing 2nd in an Irish Grade 1 respectively. However, the horse himself was a disappointing 3rd behind Cue Card and is now set to be upped in trip with the RSA as a possible aim. Even before that defeat the Jewson was more likely so hard to think this will be on the agenda now. He ran well first time up last year and then his form tailed off a little and it might be that he is best caught fresh.

Salden Licht (33/1) - Another yet to make his fencing debut but was a good hurdler without threatening the top rank. Looks the type to make up into a fair chaser but will need to find a bit to trouble this field.

Kumbeshwar (33/1) - A smashing horse who enjoyed an excellent, if frustrating, juvenile campaign finishing 2nd at all three major Festivals. Made a seamless transition to fences at Hereford and then got closest to Zaynar at Ascot before winning again at Plumpton. That puts him in line for a big bonus and a tilt at the Grand Annual was mooted. Seems unlikely to come here.

Conclusion - I was certain that Peddlers Cross was the ideal type for this race and nothing has happened to change my opinion. What has happened is that Sprinter Sacre has announced himself as a chaser of enormous potential. He looks by far the best prospective 2m chaser of these but this is not necessarily a race that falls to the best 2miler. We need only look back to last season when Finian's Rainbow was outstayed by Captain Chris for evidence of that. Sprinter Sacre has pace and scope, and a fair dash of brilliance too, on what we have seen this season. He will be tough to beat in this but that is by no means an impossible task with concerns over his ability to handle the hill and his stomach for a fight. He was undoubtedly weak up the hill in the Supreme and that is the biggest concern for me. The fact that he is a free running extravagant jumper means that Barry Geraghty does not have the option to sit in quietly to conserve energy. He will most likely pull or jump his way to the front and I can see him doing too much at the head of affairs. That will set the race up for a strong stayer when they hit the rising ground. It is not impossible that Sprinter Sacre will be so far in front that this will be irrelevant but he will need to be truly exceptional to string out a field as good as this. Both Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof will be staying on strongly at the death and preference remains for Peddlers Cross who has just a touch more pace. Cue Card does not jump well enough for me and Menorah might just find a few too good again, as he did over hurdles. The rest look either short of the required level, unlikely to run, or both. I have backed Peddlers Cross already at 9/1, and a bit more at 6/1. I am still happy with those bets but would perhaps suggest I would rather they were EW than win only! Sprinter Sacre is the one to beat but I remain to be convinced about his suitability for this test. I can see him setting this up for one of the others and I fancy Peddlers Cross can prove the Kempton form all wrong and take this. He was talked of as one of the most exciting chasers for many a year before his Kempton defeat. With excuses to explain that performance it is best forgiven and we know he will relish the track, I think he can jump well and he also goes well after a break, so, whilst not being ideal, the fact that he may go their without another run is no disaster. At 6/1 he looks good EW value because even if Sprinter Sacre proves too strong I struggle to see him out of the first three. Is it worth backing him now? A very good question. Since Donald McCain confirmed that this remained his target, his position in the market has strengthened a good deal but I'm not sure his price will contract too much more. Both he and Sprinter Sacre may go straight there, so the sticking point is Al Ferof. His performance in the Victor Chandler will determine possibly his target (with the Champion Chase an alternative) but certainly his price. If he runs poorly there then Peddlers Cross might shorten but with slight doubts about his well being he is probably best left alone for the time being especially if, like me, you already hold an extensive collection of antepost vouchers. I was convinced he was the right type for the race and still think that he is. He might yet again come up against an exceptional adversary, as he did with Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle last year, in the shape of the hugely exciting Sprinter Sacre. However, back at Cheltenham, I fancy he can prove the Kempton run all wrong and win the Arkle this season. I was very confident before Christmas, I am less confident now, but I still think he can do it.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle

After the running of the Tolworth Hurdle today the market for the Supreme has changed a good deal but still no stand-out contender has emerged from the chaos that currently persists. The current formlines suggest that there are any number of horses that are all very similar in ability and that is reflected in the market with the current favourite, Steps To Freedom, a best priced 10/1. That makes this race one of the most open antepost race, apart from the handicaps. Trying to come to any firm conclusions is a tricky business but I think a worthwhile one because if the winner can be unearthed then a handsome price will be the reward.

Steps To Freedom (10/1) - In my opinion he is a very shaky favourite indeed because his form looks none too strong now. I thought he was a little fortunate to beat Prospect Wells at Cheltenham back in November but the subsequent exploits of that horse have done little to enhance his claims. Ericht was back in 3rd and he has since been well beaten behind Colour Squadron and Montbazon at Newbury. He has not been seen since and the last I heard was that he was going straight to Cheltenham. Unless he has improved significantly I think he looks very vulnerable at the top of the market.

Waaheb (12/1) - A very promising individual indeed with 3 facile Bumper success before losing his unbeaten tag at the hands of the ill fated Lovethehigherlaw in the Punchestown Champion Bumper. He has not been seen since and if he takes to hurdling then he must surely hold every chance. However, given he has yet to be seen over hurdles in public he is impossible to recommend at 12/1. His return is something to look forward to because he could well add the star quality that this race currently lacks.

Simonsig (16/1) - Hacked up in two Points in Ireland before running away with the Champion Point-to-Point Bumper at Punchestown. He was then transferred to Nicky Henderson and was well touted for the staying novice races. He absolutely hacked up at odds of 1/5 on his first start, literally pulling Barry Geraghty's arms out the whole way up the straight. He then travelled all over the unbeaten Fingal Bay before tiring close home on testing ground at Sandown. Geraghty said he would improve for a sounder surface and it is impossible to think that a stronger pace will not be in his favour given how strongly he travels. Although he comes from a pointing background he looks to have abundant speed and to my eye this race looks there for the taking. Henderson has ruled out the 3m race (sponsored by his owner) and has said it will be between the Supreme and the Neptune, with preference for the Neptune. I think that is madness because he will meet Fingal Bay there. Depending on conditions I might fancy him to overturn the form but I think he would hold a favourites chance in this contest, with nothing of any great note yet to throw down a challenge. He looks really fast, is clearly very very good indeed and the Supreme test looks ideal. I hope he runs and as soon as connections (if they ever do) give any indication that they are aiming him at the race I will be on in a flash.

Galileo's Choice (16/1) - Ran most pleasingly when finishing best of all to be 2nd to Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal bond Novices' Hurdle. The winner did little for the form when beaten at odds on next time but that should not detract from his chance. He was held up that day and the winner got first run on him. The fact that he was able to get as close as he did, with 16 lengths back to the rest, is a testament to his ability. He seems to hurdle well, and considering he is rated 110 and is a Group 3 winner on the flat, he must command respect. He looks to be improving all the time and it will be interesting to see where he goes next. He seems sure to appreciate a sounder surface and rates an interesting contender.

Colour Squadron (16/1) - Threw away the Tolworth by hanging violently left handed near the finish. He is a decent horse having hacked up in a bumper and beaten the well regarded Montbazon on his second hurdle start. The first time he was beaten by It's A Gimme, who had just been beaten by Hazy Tom the time before at Aintree. His talent is there for all to see but I would be surprised if this test is what he wants. He appears more of a grinder than anything else and would surely appreciate a tougher test than he is likely to encounter in this.

Oscar Nominee (16/1) - Only quoted by Ladbrokes on the back of a ridiculously easy success at Southwell a few days ago. The form probably doesn't amount to much (the 2nd had previously been beaten further by both Prospect Wells and Molotof but it was certainly visually impressive. He was easily beaten on both Bumper starts and unless he has improve dramatically, which is not impossible, then he should have a bit to find with the principals. He remains one to watch for the time being.

Captain Conan (16/1) - Yet another for Nicky Henderson and this one the winner of the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle on his first start for the trainer. He has winning (albeit weak) form in France and kept on pleasingly at Sandown

Montbazon (20/1) - The apple of Alan King's eye and fancied by a few for this. He was a good bumper horse, winning the valuable Doncaster Sales race, and finishing 2nd behind subsequent Champion Bumper scorer Cheltenian and in the Aintree race behind Steps To Freedom. However, he was then beaten at Cheltenham first time this season, and then found Colour Squadron too good at Newbury on his hurdling bow. He is a talented horse but he just seems to be one for whom there is always an excuse. The test will suit him with good ground and a fast pace right up his street but he has not always looked the toughest and there might be a few too good.

Cinders And Ashes (20/1) - Just beaten by Broadbackbob on his hurdling bow after a costly mistake. Has since recorded two easy wins on soft ground but looks sure to be suited by better. He was a decent bumper a horse and will be a decent hurdler too but maybe a few too good.

Cash And Go (20/1) - Winner of the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, beating the well touted Sous Les Cieux in the process. However, that was not a particularly taking performance and I suspect that another big step is required.

Darlan (20/1) - Still unbeaten after a bumper and two hurdles but hugely unimpressive at odds on when winning at Cheltenham. AP suggested that he is perhaps not as good as they had hoped and that looks the harsh truth.

Tetlami (20/1) - A winner at Sandown and Kempton in two starts over hurdles and the form has worked out fairly well with Knight Pass winning a handicap, albeit over 2m5f and off a mark of 125. He is thoroughly likeable but just appears to lack a touch of class. I may be wrong but he does not grab me at this stage.

Prospect Wells (25/1) - Easy winner at Chepstow when he really impressed me and then enhanced his reputation in defeat at Cheltenham. I thought he was possibly the best horse in the race that day and it is significant that his conqueror still heads the market, not a position he deserves in my opinion. He then won easily from subsequent scorer All The Aces at Newbury. However, I thought he looked a bit light that day and he has disappointed twice, running fairly in The Ladbroke, but very poorly in the Tolworth. That was an afterthought and I think it can be forgiven. I am not sure he is good enough to win a Supreme but he strikes me as the type to run well at a big price. His Tolworth effort has not put me off him at all but it has enhanced his price no end. In my book he remains one to consider, but probably on the day. 

Sous Les Cieux (25/1) - A Grade 1 winner when beating Galileo's Choice but put in his place at odds on last time behind Cash And Go. He looks like he wants a step up in trip and he is more interesting for the Neptune.

Distant Memories (25/1) - A very smart performer on the flat (Group 3 winner) and made a smooth transition to hurdles when winning easily at Limerick on heavy ground. The form is not worth a great deal but he is a horse with the potential to excel in this sphere. He is difficult to assess until we see him take on better horses.

Dylan Ross (25/1) - Winner of a maiden hurdle but beaten into 2nd on three subsequent starts upped in class. Not sure he is quite up to winning this.

Samain (25/1) - Racked up a hat-trick in bumpers and looked a really smart prospect last season. Has yet to be seen this season and his trainer Willie Mullins has suggested that he might be more of a Neptune type. The potential is there but it remains to be seen how he tackles the hurdles.

All The Aces (25/1) - No match for Prospect Wells on his hurdling bow at Newbury but easily scored next time at the same course. Would need to improve on that evidence and is another who might be headed to the Neptune.

Molotof (25/1) - A decent campaign as a juvenile last year, the highlight being a fair 2nd to Triumph winner Zarkandar at Kempton. Has scored three times this season, including a Grade 2 but just looks a little short of the top level. Barry Geraghty also suggested he would appreciate a step up in trip.

Mono Man (33/1) - Another for Nicky Henderson and an interesting one. I backed him on his first start at Newbury and he looked all over the winner before making a hash of the last. He took a while to pick up but was coming right back at the front two, It's A Gimme and Colour Squadron at the line. Has not been seen since but has the potential to improve.

Allure Of Illusion (33/1) - Another unknown quantity for Willie Mullins. Good bumper form (3rd at Aintree behind Steps To Freedom and Montbazon) but yet to be seen over hurdles.

Hazy Tom (40/1) - Unbeaten in 4 before finishing 3rd behind Molotof on ground softer than ideal. Back on good will see him to better effect but not sure he's quite good enough and might appreciate further.

It's A Gimme (Unquoted) - He is not quoted by any bookmakers and I'm not sure why. He has not been seen since November and can only assume he has suffered a setback. Horses that he has beaten are short in the market (Colour Squadron) so he deserves a quote at the very least, for all that I think he's not quite up to the task. 

Conclusion - A very open looking race and this fact is reflected in the prices with the bookies betting 10/1 the field. However, I cannot help but think that this is a race where there is scope for unearthing the winner if the right conclusions can be drawn. A lot of the form ties in together and I do not like any of it. Either this is a very weak renewal of the Supreme, which is entirely possible, or we have not seen the winner yet either at all or over the trip. I fancy it is the latter because I think Simonsig has an outstanding chance in this if he is allowed to take his chance. He is a 3m Point winner in Ireland but has looked all about pace since arriving on these shores. He stays 2m5f but looks to have pace to burn so I cannot see the drop in trip posing any problem at all. He travels really strongly meaning the strong pace is likely to suit and he will certainly get the trip well. He also looks a really classy prospect and on the current evidence looks a cut above the rest. The 16/1 available with Coral looks outstanding EW value if he runs, but that is the problem. In a recent At The Races interview trainer Nicky Henderson ruled out the 3m race and stated a preference for the Neptune over the Supreme. Fingal Bay has been pointed towards the Neptune since then so I am hoping that might lead to a change in course. I am not saying that Simonsig cannot win the Neptune because I'm sure he could, but the Supreme looks a very winnable race. The Fingal Bay form looks rock solid and he was cantering all over him before being outstayed on testing ground at Sandown. The better ground and fast run 2m of the Supreme look ideal. I am not sure he is a betting proposition until Henderson gives some indication of where he might be headed. If anything does suggest he is coming here then the advice is to get on and get on quickly. I think he will take all the beating. Prospect Wells has doubled in price since his Tolworth defeat but I think that is an overreaction. back on good ground after a break he is entitled to go well again and might reward EW support. Montbazon is well regarded but needs too many excuses for my liking but the race should suit him well. But perhaps the main danger will come from one we have yet to see over hurdles. There are a few lurking in the stable of Willie Mullins (Samain and Allure Of Illusion) and he could well have the Supreme winner sitting in his yard ready to be unleashed in the coming months. The same comment might apply to Dermot Weld's Waaheb. However, it is impossible to judge their merits until we have seen them over hurdles and from the current evidence available Simonsig rates a strong fancy. If he were a definite runner then I would be most bullish about his chances. As it is, I await with great eagerness for the news that Henderson has finally seen the light and will run him in the Supreme. It might be that he has a better candidate amongst his string of contenders but I find that hard to believe on what we have seen so far. Of his others I think Mono Man is the most interesting at 33/1. He should have won first time up in a good race and remains open to improvement. He looks sure to have this as his target and is the EW value at this stage. However, it is advisable to wait until he is entered again before committing any cash. Simonsig does not run then a rethink is required because I cannot fancy anything else at this stage. If he does then he rates a strong selection.

World Hurdle

Much like with the Champion Hurdle, this market looks exactly how we might have expected. The defending Champion Big Buck's a very warm order to retain his crown and make it an historic, and unprecedented, 4 wins in a row. 

Big Buck's (4/7) - He is the best staying hurdler I have ever seen, of that I am sure, and he might well be the best that anybody has ever seen. His dominance in this division is absolute. Each year a new young pretender emerges to threaten his crown, and each time he dismisses them with contemptuous ease. He only does enough to win so wide margin victories are never going to happen but his superiority cannot be doubted. The impression one gets is that he always has any amount in hand at the finish. He stays exceptionally well and has more than enough pace to cover anything else he is likely to face. His jumping is now assured and the occasional flat spots that characterised his early efforts now seem thin on the ground too. It appears and impossible task to beat him because the stronger the pace the easier he wins, and he showed last season that he has the tactical versatility and the ability to deal with a slower pace that does not play to his strengths. He has shown himself to be better than ever this season with a facile success at Newbury before demolishing his field at Ascot. He actually looked in trouble (very) briefly that day but as soon as Ruby awoke him from his slumber, he picked up Dynaste with embarrassing ease and fairly stormed home to win unchallenged. There are very few horses in the history of the game who would have legitimate claims in a World Hurdle, a Champion Hurdle (both Ruby and AP are adamant he has the pace for it), a Cheltenham Gold Cup (poor jumping or not his ability is phenomenal) and an Ascot Gold Cup on the level (would anything be able to touch him on the flat over 2m4f?). He rates absolute banker material. At this stage it is a re-mortgage the house job and just lump it on. Keep it simple, keep it big and count the winnings afterwards.

I heard the other day that if you had put £100 on him from the start of his 14 race winning streak and continued to reinvest your winnings each time you would have now surpassed the £1million mark. I have been with him right from the start and wish that I had taken advantage of that opportunity! 

Oscar Whisky (6/1) - The Nicky Henderson trained Oscar Whisky is the obvious challenger. He is the dominant force over 2m4f but challengers are thin on the ground in that division. He was 3rd in the Champion Hurdle last season, before winning the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f. This season he fell on his first start when upsides Overturn at the last in the Ascot Hurdle. It remains open to debate whether he would have won that day but whatever the result it would have been close. He has since recorded two facile successes at Cheltenham, never coming of the bridle on New Year's Day to account for the promising Poungach. He has yet to try 3m but there appears every chance he will get the trip. However, for me he is a very very good horse but not a brilliant one. He is thoroughly likeable but my suspicion is that he will always come up just a little short against the very best. This view is backed up by his record in that the only times he has been beaten (excluding his fall) are at the Cheltenham Festival when 4th in the Supreme and 3rd in the Champion. As such he has an almighty task on his hands trying to dethrone the colossus that is Big Buck's. He is not just the very best around, he is arguable the very best there has ever been. It will take a monumental effort to beat him, and whilst he is a worthy challenger, I would be surprised if he were to be treated any differently to anything else that has taken on the same task.

Thousand Stars (10/1) - Filled 4th place in the Champion Hurdle, and then a close 2nd in the Aintree Hurdle, both times just one place behind Oscar Whisky. He then went on to France and won the French Champion Hurdle over 3m2f at Auteuil in June. He has proven stamina and is still a horse on the upgrade in my opinion. I have had a little on him EW for the Champion Hurdle at 33/1 and I suspect that will be his Cheltenham target. I get the impression that his main aims are the Aintree Hurdle and the French Champion again. Therefore, connections would rather take the easier 2m route at Cheltenham than bottom him out over 3m in this.

Voler La Vedette (16/1) - Remarkably now the highest rated mare in Ireland, surpassing the mighty Quevega after a facile success in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown over 3m. She has form over 2m, 2m4f and now 3m so her target at Cheltenham is difficult to determine. I would imagine the Champion Hurdle is highly unlikely and completely off the radar but both the Mares Hurdle (2m4f) and this race must be under consideration. However, there is some doubt about whether she will even make the trip at all. That doubt is reflected by her being a best priced 16/1 with Sporting Bet but only 7/1 with Ladbrokes who are NRNB.

So Young (20/1) - Yet another challenger for Willie Mullins and a very interesting one too. He was backed like defeat was out of the question when sent of favourite for the Neptune. The rumour I heard was that he had demolished Quevega (who had hacked up in the Mares hurdle the previous day) in a gallop giving her a stone. That is almost certainly utter rubbish, or at least an exaggeration and in the end he could only finish 3rd but would undoubtedly been a lot closer without a mistake at the last. He then disappointed at Punchestown but that can be forgiven. This season he has scored impressively in two weak events, however, the strength of the form is impossible to determine. On the bare figures he has 25lbs to find with Big Buck's but I am sure that he is better than his current mark. I was most impressed with him last time (even if he was 1/8), showing a smart turn of foot over 2m. He has yet to try 3m but Mullins appears confident that he can excel over any trip. He is clearly held in high regard but remains something of an unknown quantity and it will be interesting to see how Mullins campaigns him in the lead up to the race.

Mikael D'Haguenet (25/1) - He looked to have the racing world at his feet when he completed a brilliant novice season (unbeaten in 6) with victory in the Neptune (then the Ballymore Properties) and at Punchestown. His chasing career never really took off, however, such was the regard in which he was held that he was still sent of 15/2 for the RSA despite being a maiden over fences. He then took a while to regain his sparkle back over hurdles but has recorded two straightforward victories this term and looks to be back on the road to a certain extent. He has yet to fulfil his early potential and he still has questions to answer but he would undoubtedly be dangerous if returning to his very best.

Mourad (25/1) - Beaten twice this term by Voler La Vedette and it is hard to see him improving upon his 3rd place finish in this last year. He is almost certainly flattered by his proximity to Big Buck's that day and whilst the return to good ground will suit it is hard to see him putting down a serious challenge.

Zaidpour (25/1) - Hugely impressive when winning the Royal Bond last year and was installed as favourite for the Supreme afterwards. Things subsequently fell apart as he was twice beaten as favourite in Ireland and then trailed in 7th in the Supreme. Mullins is adamant that he wasn't quite right at the end of last season and he has bounced back with two easy successes. He is obviously talented and the way he won his Royal Bond was so striking that it is difficult to forget. One downside is that it might be that he needs soft ground to show his best.

Dynaste (33/1) - Most impressive when winning the Fixed Brush Hurdle in a canter but only 4th when pitched in against Big Buck's at Ascot last time. His finishing position does not do justice to his performance as he was quite obviously second best. He set a frantic pace and ultimately paid the price. He is another who would prefer a bit of cut.

Restless Harry (33/1) - Ran away with the West Yorkshire Hurdle on his first start this year but has since been beaten twice over fences and put in his place when 3rd behind Big Buck's at Ascot. He was 9th in the World Hurdle last season and the good ground will probably prevent him faring much better this time around.

Fiveforthree (33/1) - Yet another Mullins inmate who was quietly fancied for the race last year. He finished only 8th but suffered a recurrence of an old injury and might be out for the season. He is talented but fragile and he must be doubtful to make the line-up. At the age of 10 his injuries might be catching up with him.

Five Dream (40/1) - Has twice finished 2nd to Big Buck's this season but hard not to think that there might be a few more filling the gap between them come Cheltenham. He is an honourable performer but limited and seems sure to be exposed in this. 

Conclusion - Big Buck's stands very tall indeed over this field and defeat seems unimaginable. Oscar Whisky is the obvious danger but he has fallen just short at both Cheltenham Festivals and it is hard to see that trend being reversed against a horse of the calibre of Big Buck's. The rest of the contenders are dominated by the Mullins trained battalion (Thousand Stars, So Young, Mikael D'Haguenet, Mourad, Zaidpour and Fiveforthree). For all the strength in numbers it is hard to think that any of them could dethrone the reigning Champion. However, given the strength of his team it will surely be sensible to take note of whoever he decides to send into battle here. As far as betting goes there seems little point getting involved antepost in this race. It is hard to fancy anything against Big Buck's and at 4/7 he is already short. He actually drifted on the day last season and the same might happen again this year. Unless things change dramatically between now and then it is surely a case of gathering as much as you can afford and lumping it on. He is a money machine, and the more you put in the more you get out. Perhaps the best EW value at this stage is Dynaste who I think is far better than the Ascot result would suggest. He is perhaps overpriced at 33/1. But I think it just a case of waiting until the day and lumping on the unbeatable Big Buck's to retain his crown.