Celebrate At Cheltenham

What better way to bring in the New Year than a terrific day's action at Cheltenham. It promises to be just the first of many brilliant cards throughout the year, a year that promises oh so very much. We have Kauto Star v Long Run to look forward to in the Gold Cup, an historic attempt at an unprecedented 4th World Hurdle by Big Buck's, and on the flat the prospect of Frankel tackling 10f for the first time in a bid to enhance his standing in the list of the finest to have graced the turf.

12.30 - Novice Hurdle (2m4f)

A really decent looking novice hurdle with an unusually big field., and with plenty of runners full of promise. Barbatos was 2nd and 3rd behind Fingal Bay with Jump City filling 4th behind the same rival  last time. Jimbill won a weak race at Fakenham last time but in very easy fashion, and was a good 2nd in a Listed bumper the time before that. One Term won that bumper but was beaten first time up over hurdles but is entitled to improve. Hard To Swallow was in the process of running a decent race in the Persian War (again won by Fingal Bay) and has had a long time to get over that fall. It must be assumed that he suffered some sort of setback as a result given the time he has had off. If he's over that then he looks capable of going well. Down the bottom is the Henderson newcomer Master Of The Game. The fact that he is pitched straight into decent company is significant and he was also the subject of a favourable report from jockey Barry Geraghty in his At The Races blog ("he’s a horse that I like a lot"). Very hard to come to any conclusion and this is very much a race that falls into the watch but not bet category.

1.05 - Dipper Novices' Chase (2m5f) Grade 2

Traditionally a strong race and this year looks no exception with a number of exciting horses set to line-up. Solix heads the field under a double penalty after wins at Kempton and Cheltenham. He clearly has some engine but his jumping has left a little to be desired. It will take a good performance to give weight all round to these rivals. Champion Court is dropped back in trip and that should suit after tiring up the hill over 3m last time. Invictus won in really taking style at Plumpton last time. This is a whole lot tougher but he quickened really smartly that day and is well worth the rise in class. Sonofvic pushed Grands Crus all the way on his chase debut at Newbury, jumping well and keeping on well. He drops back in trip which might not suit him all that well but he has no penalty and that must give him a chance with the Grands Crus form boosted in no uncertain manner in the Feltham at Kempton. I am confused as to why Saint Are and Sybarite are running at this trip. Both look out and out stayers and are likely to find some of these having too much pace. This looks a top quality race and I would be prepared to give Sonofvic as a tentative selection at the trip. The run at Newbury might have been over 3m but Grands Crus, a horse with bundles of pace, didn't make him look slow and, therefore, the step back in trip, whilst not ideal, shouldn't inconvenience him too much. He is well regarded and in receipt of weight from his main rivals can take this. I was expecting him to be favourite but had hoped for better than 11/8 but he rates the most likely winner in my book. Solix is the one best suited by conditions and if his jumping improves then he is capable of a big performance. He is worth a saver at 4/1.

1.35 - Handicap Chase (3m2f)

Not a veteran's race but remarkably nothing younger than 9 lines-up, with 10 of the 15 already hitting double figures. My first thought was that this should be an easy race to sort 'the wheat from the chaff'. After a look I have arrived at the conclusion that there is no 'wheat'. If pushed I would probably side with Minella Theatre. He showed some sparkle last time when a close enough 5th behind Hey Big Spender and he wouldn't be the first horse that Lawney Hill has rejuvenated. The extra 2 furlongs will help and so will the hill, plus he has the benefit of a first time tongue-tie.

2.10 - Handicap Chase (2m5f) Grade 3

A far more competitive handicap with a few holding solid claims. The presence of The Nightingale at the head of the handicap gives the race a slightly skewed look with a few down the bottom just out of the weights. His stablemate Ghizao will be popular but he is becoming disappointing and I think he would prefer softer ground. Hidden Keel is held in high regard by upcoming trainer Charlie Longsdon. He's been beaten both starts this season but could go well on his handicap bow. Two novices making their handicap debuts are Duke Of Lucca and Micheal Flips. Both have been given marks lower than their hurdles ratings which gives them chances. In particular Duke Of Lucca looks to have solid claims with him really looking like he was at home over the bigger obstacles last time. However, despite the fact that he is a few pounds wrong at the weights I thought Micheal Flips was a big price. Another from down the bottom is Havingotascoobydo. He has shown decent form over 2m this season but looks sure to improve for the step up in trip. I would have Havingotascoobydo (7/1) and Micheal Flips (16/1) as my two against the field.

 

2.45 - Handicap Hurdle (3m)

Tidal Bay heads the weights in his first start for Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls. Ruby Walsh rides his other runner Oscargo who will be a warm order to repeat his course and distance success of last month. A 12lb rise, whilst hardly generous, looks within his compass. Get Me Out Of Here tries 3m for the first time. He ran very well in defeat behind Oscar Whisky last time and if staying the extra distance will be the major threat. Whether 6/4 'value' about the favourite is a different matter altogether. Given the fact that his profile is most progressive and that most of his rivals fall into the exposed category it is probably fair but no better.

3.20 - Cheltenham And Three Counties Club Hurdle (2m4f)

Oscar Whisky was 3rd in the Champion Hurdle and winner of the Aintree Hurdle last season and is the premier 2m4f hurdler around at the moment. He is expected to take this en route to challenging Big Buck's in the World Hurdle in March. Even giving away weight all round he should prove a class apart from these rivals. Best of the rest is Poungach, a most striking individual, who is definitely one to keep on the right side of, particularly when he is faced with a fence. His win at Sandown, whilst impressive, was won with stamina and I would be surprised if the drop in trip on better ground will suit. 8/15 looks a good price about the favourite.

3.50 - Bumper (1m6f) Listed

A whole heap of winners/placed horses that could be anything. The best of the lot looks to be Trespasser for the all conquering Ferguson/Quinlan team. He bolted up on his debut at Taunton and it will take a good one to beat him here. The drop in trip should not inconvenience him because he looked to have pace in abundance last time. 

Best of luck to one and all for a happy and prosperous 2012.

Champion Hurdle

Three of the first four in the betting have yet to show their faces this campaign. Two definitely by design, but the reigning Champion Hurricane Fly has missed a couple of engagements with trainer Willie Mullins reportedly not happy with his charge. Those that have appeared have yet to deliver anything that suggests the Hurricane's crown is in danger come March, so long as he is able to defend it. That must be a small worry but I get the impression that this season is all about Cheltenham. Last season they did not know how good he could be so were happy mopping up the Irish Grade 1s. Now he has shown what a brilliant horse he is, and with the Champion Hurdle looking at his mercy, Mullins will be doing everything he can to get him there on the day that matters most. Nothing else matters, it is all about Cheltenham. The main challenge looks to come from those that we have yet to see.

Hurricane Fly (13/5) - A brilliant winner of this race last year when he quashed the notion that the hill would hold any fears for him with authority. After a spate of average looking Champion Hurdlers he finally looked a horse worthy of the illustrious crown. He went on to destroy the opposition at Punchestown and, given his versatility in pretty much every regard, it is very hard to see him getting beaten if he turns up in good order in March. He seems happy on good or bottomless ground or anything in between, off a fast pace or a slow pace, he jumps well, has more pace than any of his rivals and stays very well. In short he looks the complete package. The one minor concern is that he could get lit up by the preliminaries. He coped well last year and the way he was so keen through his race suggests there might be more to come. The one major concern is whether he will be able to line-up, especially considering he has missed two of the last three Festivals. If he does I find it hard to see him being defeated, unless one of Spirit Son or Zarkandar can do something exceptional. Everything we have seen so far look a level below what the Hurricane is capable of.

Grandouet (6/1) - A very smart juvenile last year and has really progressed pleasingly this year, the highlight being a taking win in the International Hurdle. That day he had Overturn and Brampour in 2nd and 3rd and despite the fact that he won easily he was hardly flying away from them up the hill. I think both of those rivals are short of the top level (and he was receiving weight from Overturn) so would liked to have seen him dismiss them more readily. He is well worthy of his place in the field for certain but he makes no appeal whatsoever at 6/1. 

Spirit Son (10/1) - Only 2nd in the Supreme but absolutely demolished a good field at Aintree the last time we saw him. Barry Geraghty reported that Cheltenham just came a year too soon for him and he is expected to be a different proposition this term. He has yet to make his seasonal reappearance but that is slightly by design, though there were reports of a minor hold-up earlier in the season. He will need to progress but that looks likely, and the rumours suggest that he is the best of Nicky Henderson's trio (Grandouet and Binocular being the other two). That alone means he warrants great respect. Is he worth backing now? Possibly. The 10/1 looks vulnerable and he is unlikely to face much opposition when he does see a racecourse. I would expect him to win impressively and then he could easily be a 5/1 chance. My inclination would be to refrain at least until where he will be reappearing and what he will be facing. In my opinion he looks one of the more likely challengers to the reigning Champion.

Zarkandar (10/1) - Almost exactly the same comments apply to Zarkandar as to Spirit Son. The Triumph that he won looks exceptionally strong form with the 2nd that day Unaccompanied winning the Grade 1 Istabraq Hurdle this week, the 3rd Grandouet winning the International, the 9th Brampour winning two good handicaps (including the Greatwood) and running well in 3rd in the International and the 14th Molotof looking a really smart novice hurdler. The form could hardly be working out any better and if Zarkandar can find the same improvement as the horses that he beat, and there is no reason to think he cannot, then he will be a force to be reckoned with. The exploits of stablemates Rock On Ruby and Brampour have further strengthened his claims with Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls adamant that he is his best ever chance of winning that elusive Champion Hurdle. The other factor to consider is he has had the benefit of a breathing operation which should enable him to find yet more improvement. I backed him for the Triumph and would be disappointed if he were not in the shake-up come March. As for backing him, the same comments apply as for Spirit Son.

Binocular (12/1) - Hailed as a brilliant Champion back in 2008 but in hindsight the form looks very poor indeed with Khyber Kim in 2nd and Zaynar and Celestial Halo filling 3rd and 4th. He did win it well but has done little since to suggest that he is capable of mixing it with the very best around, being comprehensively thumped by Hurricane Fly at the Punchestown Festival. The strong pace and the hill play to his strengths but he is far too inconsistent to recommend at this stage. He has his fans but I am not one of them. He is nearly always deeply unimpressive in his prep races so there appears no reason to back him now.

Rock On Ruby (12/1) - Never considered as a Champion Hurdle prospect until he demolished a very competitive handicap field in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury off top-weight. Stablemate Empire Levant was unpenalised for a 29 length win just two days previously and, whilst he was comfortably clear of the rest, he was no match for Rock On Ruby. The form of that race looks very strong indeed with the 3rd and 5th, Raya Star and Alarazi going on to fight out the finish (1st and 3rd) in the valuable Ladbroke Hurdle. His credentials were tested at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle and I think he ran with great credit. If he had jumped the last well I fancy he would have won and considering conditions were hardly in his favour that must entitle him to respect. I doubt whether he can challenge Hurricane Fly (especially as Nicholls considers him his second string) but he must have place prospects back at a stiffer track. He went down by just a short-head in the Neptune. His run at Aintree behind Spirit Son can be forgiven as he was most likely over the top by then.

Unaccompanied (14/1) - A good 2nd in the Triumph after being hampered round the home turn but ultimately she was no match for the winner who was well on top at the line. She has shown good form this year including a defeat of Thousand Stars in the Istabraq Hurdle last week. Her hurdles form reads 112411, mostly at Grade 1 level. She came to Cheltenham with an apparent preference for soft ground, and yet Dermot Weld suggested that the rain at Leopardstown was against her given she has so much speed. She certainly handled good well enough in the Triumph but for whatever reason I can't see her winning the Champion. No real reasoning behind it, just a gut feeling.

Thousand Stars (20/1) - 4th in the race last year and seems to be improving all the while. That tend was arrested somewhat when he was beaten last weak at Evens behind Unaccompanied. However, I think there were valid reasons for that, including an unusually poor ride from the master himself, Ruby Walsh. He allowed the race to turn into a speed test, then got boxed in, and despite his mount rallying close home was never quite getting there. I think he's better than that and actually quite like him for place prospects in the Champion Hurdle. I have had a very small EW bet at 33/1 on him and provided he takes his chance, which I think he will, I can certainly see him getting involved. He is tough and consistent, stays further, and you know he'll give you a run for your money.

Oscars Well (25/1) - A possibly unlucky 3rd in the Neptune but I'm not convinced he would have won, regardless of whether he slipped at the last or not. This season he has yet to get on the scoresheet, finishing 3rd, 2nd and 3rd, and behind Thousand Stars on two occasions. The Champion test should suit more but he doesn't look a Champion Hurdler to me. 

Oscar Whisky (25/1) - 3rd in the race last year but I'm not so sure he would confirm placings with Thousand Stars 12 months on. Anyway, that is likely to be irrelevant with connections setting their sights on the towering colossus that is Big Buck's in the World Hurdle.

Overturn (33/1) - I keep saying but he is the very definition of a 'cracking little horse'. He is game, consistent and tough, but just short of the very top level. He will give his running once again, and good spring ground will suit him well, but once again he'll find a few too good.

Brampour (40/1) - Won two competitive handicaps, including the Greatwood, early in the season and then finished a creditable 3rd in the International. The fact that he ran just a week later to take advantage of a favourable handicap mark tells you all you need to know about his Champion Hurdle aspirations. If he was a genuine contender then you can be damn sure that Nicholls wouldn't have been running him there. 

Conclusion - Hurricane Fly is a formidable opponent to all his potential challengers and if he returns to defend his crown then it will take an almighty performance to lower his colours. I have yet to be convinced by any of the horses that have run yet this season (Thousand Stars and Rock On Ruby are perhaps the best of them) so would therefore look towards the unraced duo of Spirit Son and Zarkandar to present the biggest threats. They rank very similar in profile, ratings and so on, and it is no surprise to see the bookmakers pricing them up identically as well. Both trainers think they are their best hopes and that must put them near the top of the tree given the exploits of their less vaunted stablemates. If pushed to choose between the pair I would side with Zarkandar. He is open to any amount of improvement, has had a breathing operation, will relish the strong pace and the hill, and Nicholls appears bullish about his chances. A late start was always the plan so that is of no concern at all. The pair appear closely matched on all known evidence but both will need to produce something special to defeat the reigning Champion, who looks right out of the very top drawer. I have backed Hurricane Fly at 3/1 (Boylesports 12 Days of Christmas special offer) and am happy with that. If he misses the race then it suddenly looks very open but from what I have seen I would be siding with the potential rather than the proven, purely for the fact that the proven does not look good enough.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

The biggest race of them all and the market looks very different to what we might have expected a few months back. I am sure that most, myself included, did not expect Kauto Star to be sitting pretty as the 2nd favourite for the Gold Cup at the turn of the year. Perhaps even more surprising is the recent news that Grands Crus, the outstanding staying novice, is expected to take his chance in the race. 

Long Run (11/4) - 2nd in both the Betfair Chase and the King George to the great Kauto Star. He is looking evermore the out and out stayer as he ages and the Gold Cup looks to be his race. I said after the Gold Cup in 2011 that I suspected he might be vulnerable in the King George, but that he would win the Gold Cup. I have been vindicated on the first part of that prediction and think there is every chance that the second will come true. He just lacks a bit of pace and he was never quite getting to Kauto Star round the flat 3m at Kempton. The extra 2 and a half furlongs and Cheltenham's uphill finish are just what he needs. That is no secret and he remains a solid favourite at a best priced 11/4 despite not getting his head in front this term. Some have suggested the Gold Cup is a formality for him but I would not go that far. He is the most likely winner but I can envisage circumstances that would favour Kauto Star. He drifted to as big as 3/1 after the King George and that price was snapped up. It is easy to think that the 11/4 might not last long either. The worry is that he is due to have a prep race at Newbury and I can easily envisage a less than impressive performance from him in that. That could lead to his price drifting a little. That said I think I would rather back him on the day.

Kauto Star (9/2) - Not many would have put him forward as a Gold Cup contender a few months back but it goes to show just how quickly things can change. He is a general 4/1 chance but Sportingbet and William Hill go 9/2, with Ladbrokes, already non-runner-no-bet, at 3/1. My initial impression when looking at the odds was that the 9/2 looks excellent  value. He will not race again between now and the Festival, and provided he lines-up on the day there is simply no way he can be any bigger than 3/1. His adoring public will pile in once again, and for good reason. As his trainer Paul Nicholls said, if he were an 8 year old he would be favourite for the Gold Cup, and he has a point. It must be remembered that, whilst the stamina sapping contest that is the Gold Cup does not necessarily play to his strengths, he is a dual winner of the race. It is also easy to argue that he should have won more. He is one of the outstanding steeplechasers of all time and it would be ludicrous to write him off for anything. He has already made fools of many this season. I am his biggest fan and definitely think he can win the Gold Cup in March. A few factors will be more in Long Run's favour but there are a conditions which can redress that balance. For example, a small and weak field with no front runners on good ground will play right into Kauto Star's hands. That scenario looks entirely plausible at this stage and my final opinion will depend on conditions. Like many I have Long Run as the most likely winner, but only just.

Grands Crus (8/1) - The outstanding staying novice chaser this season with wins at Cheltenham, Newbury and Kempton. In particular his win on Boxing Day in the Grade 1 Feltham was most taking. He jumped to the front and readily put the race to bed some way out. It was then a case of maintaining the gallop which he did with ease. The one question mark for me is his stamina. This might seem surprising given he has a lot of form over 3m, including a 2nd in the World Hurdle, but he has so much pace that it must at least be a small worry. In the Feltham both Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth were closing at the finish but that may be misleading given that Grands Crus was being eased close home. I had my doubts about his jumping but he has proven me wrong on that front. My chief concern was his build but his physical development over the summer has been quite striking. He is clearly very good indeed and it is not impossible that he has found significant improvement over the summer. The current plan is to run in the Argento on Trials Day at Cheltenham and that might tell us more. The owner is favouring the Gold Cup and if allowed to take his chance is certainly worthy of consideration. He is a general 8/1 chance, but is available at 7/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes. If he wins the Argento well, and there is no reason why he shouldn't, then that might look a decent price. 

Synchonised (14/1) - A good winner of the Lexus Chase but I can only think that had more to do with the weakness of the Irish Staying Chasers than his own ability. Rubi Light looked to stay but not relish the trip, whilst Quito De La Roque is slow. I though the same comment applied to Synchronised but he made them look pedestrian in behind. However, I have my doubts about whether he is a proper Gold Cup horse and the likely good ground will not be in his favour. Worthy of his place in the line-up but not one for me.

Time For Rupert (20/1) - Was all the rage at this time last year (very similar to Grands Crus) but I have always been of the opinion that he is hugely overrated. Nothing he has done this season has changed that. Finished 2nd in the Charlie Hall but well and truly put in his place by Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase. Won at weak race at Newbury last time but hardly in impressive fashion. He will need it to be soft if he is to have any chance. I have never seen him as a Gold Cup contender and nothing this season has persuaded me otherwise. 

Weird Al (25/1) - Won the Charlie Hall and finished a fair 3rd in the Betfair Chase. He ran really poorly on both starts last season but if you take those two starts out of the equation then his record looks quite impressive. He likes Cheltenham, he has handled good ground, and he stays well but is not devoid of pace. I think he has a few things in his favour, especially as he is being targeted at the race by his excellent trainer Donald McCain. He goes well fresh so I think he is perhaps a little overpriced. Why Time For Rupert is shorter than him is beyond me. 

Captain Chris (25/1) - I am a big fan of this horse and he ran much as I expected in the King George. He has always been best in the spring on proper good ground and after seeing him in the paddock at Kempton I am convinced the same will happen this season. It must be remembered that he failed to get off the mark over fences until February last year before taking Grade 1 prizes at Cheltenham and Punchestown. In that context his 3rd in the King George, albeit well adrift of the leading pair, is hugely creditable. I think he stayed OK but just tired in the closing stages. It is perhaps the case that his interrupted preparation told. He would still have finished 3rd but with one more race he might have been a bit closer. He looked to lack a bit of experience in places and his jumping was a little rusty. I think back on spring ground, round a big galloping track, with a touch more experience he can go well again.

Diamond Harry (25/1) - As has been the case before he missed the King George after being lame just before the race. He is fragile and his ability to make the race, let alone win it, must be doubtful. His best form has been first time out on flat galloping tracks. His one race at Cheltenham was in the RSA when he ran a real clunker. The fact that he was beaten in the Betfair Chase in ideal conditions tells me he's not quite up to this level. His supporters have said he will improve for the run but he has never done that in the past so I see no reason why that should be the case this time around. His next target is likely to be the Argento. 

Quito De La Roque (33/1) - The main hope for Ireland but his bubble was burst when only 3rd in the Lexus Chase. He is slow and will need soft ground and a relentless pace for him to stand any chance in this. He is not one for me. 

Rubi Light (33/1) - One place in front of Quito De La Roque in the Lexus but whilst he stayed OK I am of the opinion that a drop back in trip will help him out. The Lexus probably was not the strongest of races so the fact that he could not win that leaves him with a bit to find. Connections also suggested that the ground was plenty quick enough for him and that must be a concern whether he comes here or goes for the Ryanair. I did quite like him as a lively outsider but not any more. 

Jessies Dream (33/1) - Yet to be seen this season but trainer Gordon Elliott thinks he can be a danger in the Gold Cup. I am less convinced. For one he was 2nd in the RSA and the form of that race is truly appalling. In his last two starts he finished a close second to Magnanimity (a 50l 8th in the Lexus) and Bostons Angel (who could only finish 3rd behind Golan Way at Sandown last time) in the RSA. That form looks incredibly weak and unless he shows otherwise he is very difficult to fancy.

Conclusion - At this stage it is hard to see beyond the established duo of Long Run and Kauto Star. I think Long Run a rightful favourite but, as at Kempton, I am uncertain whether there should be such a price discrepancy between the two. If you followed the advise to back Kauto Star for the King George then you could certainly do worse than reinvesting your stake for the Gold Cup. Grands Crus is interesting but novices have a poor record and I get the feeling that it is the owner who wants to run in the Gold Cup, and not David Pipe. Weird Al is perhaps a little overpriced, and the same comment applies to Captain Chris. I would have the race between those 5 at this early stage, with preference, as the betting would suggest, with the established duo. The only price that looks worth taking is the 9/2 about Kauto Star because I would be surprised if that lasted very long.

Half Term Report

It is hard to believe that half the season has gone already, but gone it has. After the Festive action the last week a few conclusions can start to be drawn with the Festival in March just over 10 weeks away. A few big names are still yet to appear but most have shown their faces and the Festival markets are starting to take some sort of shape. As the New Year dawns the time seems ripe to reflect on what has happened and in particular look forward to what might happen in March. I will be having a look at the key contenders in the key races and hopefully arrive at a few tentative conclusions. With any luck these might prove correct come March but, as Kauto Star has shown, in racing things can change very quickly indeed.

First of all I must reflect on a wonderful King George VI Chase. From a personal perspective it could hardly have gone any better with Kauto Star, Long Run and Captain Chris coming home as predicted. It was a terrific result both financially and emotionally. There is little more that I can add to the praise heaped upon Kauto Star after another quite magnificent performance. He is something else and if he can add a 3rd Gold Cup to his incomparable record then perhaps Arkle's long established position at the top of the tree might be under threat. I think most would agree that this season he has put distance between himself and the rest in the 'Greatness Stakes'. What is certain is that we will not see a horse with his record for a very long time, if ever. It really is remarkable. A brilliant horse, a brilliant race and a brilliant day. It was a privilege to be there.

I will include reviews of the other key events within the relevant races. I think it is dangerous to get too set in your views this early on but it is most definitely worthwhile to take an early look at the races to see what conclusions can already be made. Things can change so quickly that whilst strong opinions are invaluable, the ability to change is essential.

So many races to look forward to over the coming year. The Cheltenham countdown begins in earnest, and once the Champions are crowned at Cheltenham, Aintree and the Punchestown signal the end of the jumps season. We then have the fantastic prospect of seeing the mighty Frankel tackling 10f for the first time, plus a new Classic generation to enjoy. 2012 looks like being as good as ever.

Here is the list of posts;

1. Cheltenham Gold Cup
2. Champion Hurdle
3. Champion Chase 
4. World Hurdle
5. Supreme Novices' Hurdle
6. Arkle Trophy
7. Jewson Novices' Chase

Irish Action - 26th and 27th

Leopardstown 26th, 2.20 - Racing Post Novice Chase (2m1f) Grade 1

The exciting Bog Warrior will be a warm favourite after demolishing his field in the Grade 1 Drinmore last time. This is a drop back in trip but on his favoured soft ground that is not expected to inconvenience him greatly. Chief amongst the opposition is the Mullins trained Blackstairmountain who was a smart horse over hurdles, winning the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival. He recorded a facile success on his fencing debut and it is significant that Mullins pitches him straight into the top level here. Notus De La Tour runs for David Pipe and he will give us an idea where out chasers stand. He was comfortably put in his place by Walk On last time and it hard to see him troubling the very best the Irish have to offer. The favourite will be very hard to beat but at the prices a little on Blackstairmountain EW at 5/1 might be the bet.

Limerick 26th, 2.10 - Greenmount Park Novice Chase (2m3f) Grade 2

The unbeaten Sir Des Champs comes here rather than taking on the same owners Bog Warrior at Leopardstown. He seems to have been found a nice opportunity to make it two from two over fences and it would be disappointing if he was beaten. He is not much of a price at 1/2 but he looks impossible to oppose.

Leopardstown 27th, 1.20 - Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase (2m1f) Grade 1

Big Zeb heads the market as he seeks a hat-trick in this race. He will be a warm order to oblige (8/11 currently) but he has the beating of these on all known form. He beat Noble Prince and Forpadydeplasterer last time giving them weight and meets them on level terms here. Golden Silver was fortunate to win last time and would perhaps be the biggest danger if returning to his best. He gets on particularly well with Paul Townend so his return to the saddle would be a positive. That said, anything but a Big Zeb win his hard to foresee.

Leopardstown 27th, 1.55 - Paddypower.com Future Champions Novice Hurdle (2m) Grade 1

Yet another short priced favourite, this time for the all-conquering Willie Mullins yard. Sous Les Cieux won well last time even if he was being closed down at the death by Galileo's Choice in the Grade 1 Royal Bond. He had Il Fenomeno back in 5th that day and a form reversal is hard to see. There are a couple of unexposed ones lurking and whilst Sous Les Cieux should win I'm not sure I'd want to be taking 1/2 about him in this.

4 short priced favourites who all look hard to oppose. On all known form they should be winning these races but as we all know only too well there is no such thing as a good-thing in racing. I would nominate Big Zeb and Sir Des Champs as the best of the bunch. Bog Warrior should win but I think Blackstairmountain could be smart also and with Sous Les Cieux there are too many unknown quantities to be getting involved at a very short price.

A Festive Feast At Kempton

Forget Christmas, Boxing Day is what the festive period is all about. The King George is the obvious highlight, but there is a terrific supporting card headed by the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle and the Grade 1 Feltham Novices' Chase; a trio of races that wouldn't look out of place at the Festival in March. 

2.00 - Williamhill.com Feltham Novices' Chase (3m) Grade 1

Bobs Worth - A banker at the Festival in the 3m Albert Bartlett Hurdle. He won as many expected, comfortably without being impressive. He is never a horse that is particularly pleasing on the eye and this means he might be underrated. However, whilst he won on his fencing debut I wasn't particularly taken with the performance. I might be falling into the trap I just mentioned but he seemed to lack a bit of size and scope that day. Also, not convinced the track will play to his strengths.He has won 6 on the bounce so it's hard to dismiss him.

Grands Crus - Only Big Buck's was his superior over hurdles last season and he has looked decent over the bigger obstacles this term. I had my doubts about him as a chaser because he was slightly on the small side and rather downhill in build last season. However, he looks a different horse this season and I have changed my position on him completely. He looked a little 'guessy' in places at Cheltenham, most notably at the ditch at the top of the hill, but was really impressive when holding of Sonofvic at Newbury last time. That rival might well be a very good horse in his own right but I was most taken by his fluent and clever jumping that day. Clearly has the engine and it will take a good one to stop him.

Mr Moonshine - A wide margin winner of two Novice races before a more than respectable 3rd in the Peterborough Chase behind Gauvain and Somersby. I suspect he might be slightly flattered by the result since he never looked like winning but the step up to 3m looks to be in his favour. He might not have the star quality of some of these but I thought 20/1 looked too big.

Silviniaco Conti - A horse that I am quite keen on. He was talked of as a potential Champion Hurdler at one time but a fair 3rd in the International put paid to those fanciful ambitions. He was always likely to prove better for a fence and a trip and I still think that is the case. He was beaten first time up but the slow pace would not have suited and he was unfit. Next time he showed what he was capable of when slamming a decent field in a Grade 2 at Wincanton. On both occasions his jumping was excellent. He has a bit of class and I think he will stay. 

Teaforthree - He got off the mark over fences at the 3rd time of asking at Chepstow a few weeks back. That win came on heavy ground and stamina appears to be his strong suit. I suspect a few of these might prove a touch too classy for him round this much sharper test.

Emmaslegend - Just the one chase start to her name when hacking up by 24 lengths at Folkestone. As a result she is already rated higher over fences than she was over hurdles but still has a fair bit to find with the principles. her weight allowance will come in handy but this is a tough ask. 

Conclusion - A really top quality renewal which will provide some invaluable pointers ahead of the Festival with many of the key contenders for the Jewson/RSA taking their chance. Grands Crus has looked good so far and is hard to oppose. I wasn't particularly impressed with Bobs Worth first time but he is game and consistent and always workmanlike. I am a big fan of Silviniaco Conti and the sharp 3m here might be just perfect. I think he will stay, but couldn't be certain, and he might be worth a chance. At 4/1 I think he only fair value because this is a tough ask. At the prices, the 11/8 about Grands Crus is perhaps the best on offer. The other of interest is Mister Moonshine who looks far too big at the 22/1 available with Victor Chandler. The question is whether you could actually fancy him to get in the first two, and that looks unlikely. 

2.35 - Williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (2m) Grade 1 

Binocular - The winner of the race last year but I have him down as just short of top class, despite an impressive win in the Champion Hurdle. I firmly believe he will never be a match for an on song Hurricane Fly but whether he faces anything of that calibre in this field is a different matter altogether. He's renowned for his inconsistency and it is hard to recommend him with any confidence. Connections were undoubtedly disappointed by his reappearance and I would avoid him in this.

Clerk's Choice - The dark horse in the International Hurdle a few weeks back but trailed in a disappointing 7th of 8 beaten 52 lengths. Hard to recommend him on the back of that poor effort.

Overturn - A cracking little horse who has given connections a brilliant time both on the flat and over the sticks. Already a winner of the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle, the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth and 2nd in the Grade 2 International this season. Was intended to have a nice break but the favourable ground has tempted them towards this prize. He was 2nd last year, but had Binocular, his conqueror that day, back in 2nd at Newcastle in November.

Rock On Ruby - Always thought of as more of a stayer and the 2m trip and sharp track might, therefore, be a disadvantage. However, since finishing 3rd on his bumper debut his form over 2m or 2m1f reads 11111, and over further reads 223. That might have more to do with the opposition than the trip but there can be little doubt that he is useful over 2m as well. Interestingly the Neptune (as it now is) has thrown up a few decent 2m hurdlers, none more so than triple winner Istabraq, but there is also Hardy Eustace and most recently Peddlers Cross. However, of most interest is that Rock On Ruby was just beaten in a manner that suggested that a drop to 2m might be beneficial. This race is the acid test and will show whether he is Champion Hurdle class and I think he might be up to it given how well the form of his Newbury Handicap win has worked out. Given that the opposition have more than their fair share of question marks I just think he might be worth the chance.

Sanctuaire - A bit of an enigma and I thought he might go well in the International. He looked to be travelling well into the home straight but found precisely nothing when asked. Might outrun his odds once again but hard to see him beating them all home. He has only ever won with Ruby on his back so the lack of his assistance is a big negative. 

Conclusion - A race that looks a tight three way battle between Binocular, Overturn and Rock On Ruby. The odds reflect that; 2/1, 2/1 and 5/2. Binocular is entitled to improve for his reappearance but I'm not convinced that will be enough to beat Overturn if he gets his favoured good ground. That said it looks very close between the two and it might be worth chancing Rock On Ruby. I'm not convinced that the track will suit entirely but he hasn't looked short of pace, and, with Overturn sure to set a good gallop in front, it shouldn't be a sprint. He might fall short but he might be better than them both too.

3.10 - William Hill King George VI Chase (3m) Grade 1 

Eight have been left in at the final forfeit stage and there are no surprises. The field may be select but the quality is exceptional. It will take a very good performance to take this year's crown and, on paper at least, it looks a race to savour. I think a performance of at least 180 will be required and with that in mind it looks a two (maybe three) horse race. I can't say my view on the race has changed a great deal since I posted my antepost thoughts but a few views have firmed up, a few altered slightly.

Tom Segal in this week's Weekender said that Master Minded has "absolutely zero chance of winning". I would be inclined to agree and will lay him for a place. On the bare form he is probably 3rd best of these (behind Long Run and Kauto Star) but I don't see him staying the trip, and there are others open to plenty of improvement. I don't think he has run to much more than 170 for the past two seasons, including his romp in the Melling Chase. Therefore, he will need to improve by 10lbs for the trip and I just don't see that happening. Far more likely is that he is 10lbs below his best and with that in mind I can't see him much better than 5th; I suspect Somersby, and possibly Diamond Harry, might be in front of him at the trip. He was a solid enough 5/1 but is already drifting like the proverbial barge and can see him hitting double figures on the day.

In contrast the confidence around Captain Chris is infectious. He is now shortening all the while and is now a best priced 7/1, although as short as 6/1 in places. If he had a smooth run into the race I would be bullish about his chances EW, but his price would most likely be shorter as a result. I think it is still very fair and I am happy with my 8/1 and 9/1 EW. Richard Johnson seems most positive about his chances and that is pleasing to see.

Paul Nicholls has issued positive bulletins about Kauto Star and I see no real reason why he can't run to the Betfair form. If he can it will take a good performance to lower his colours. With Ruby back in the plate this year, the stage is set for an historic 5th King George. I think he has an excellent chance brining the house down.

Somersby is perhaps the dark horse and whilst I would be astonished if he were to win he looks the most likely to pick up the pieces if any of Kauto Star, Long Run and Captain Chris disappoint. He falls into a similar category to Diamond Harry but my preference would be for the Knight runner.

The favourite Long Run heads the market entirely on merit and his claims are there for all to see. He will be many people's banker on the day and it is easy to see why. That said his lack of a gear is a concern and would be enough to put me off at the price. The way connections were rattled at the Betfair still rankles with me. There is no way they were expecting to be put in their place like that. He must surely improve for the run, but improve he must, and I don't think the form reversal is anything like as inevitable as the odds suggest.

I think the ground will be around good to soft and with that in mind I think the top 3 is as follows: 1. Kauto Star 2. Long Run 3. Captain Chris. I find it hard to see anything else getting in the three, barring mishaps, and would advise a few nice tricasts and forecasts involving the three of them to support any single bets.

Win, lose or draw, it is a fantastic race to look forward to.

Saturday Review

There had been some small rumours circulating that the Ditcheat stable of Paul Nicholls was 'out of form'. How fickle this game can be as he banged in a big race treble as his championship rival Nicky Henderson was conspicuous by his absence from the winner's rostrum. As the Champion trainer has shown time and again it pays to side with him on the big Saturday afternoons. This was a pleasing outcome with so many hopes riding on Kauto Star at Kempton in just 9 days time.

The banker of the day was Big Buck's. I decided to have a wager sufficient to cover all my other bets for the day, plus a little bit. Assuming that Big Buck's won I would be in profit whatever happened elsewhere. He didn't disappoint, though I must admit that it wasn't as smooth a ride as I would have liked. Dynaste set a ferocious pace at the head of affairs and down the side of the course into Swinley Bottom looked like he might have the champion in trouble. However, appearances can be deceptive and once Walsh asked the question Big Buck's fairly sauntered to the lead, eye-balled the young pretender, and swiftly asserted to record the comfortable victory that we had all expected. He seems the finished article nowadays and it is very hard to imagine defeat any time soon. A 4th World Hurdle back at Cheltenham in March seems a formality, even with 3 months still to go.

Big Buck's is well clear at the last to make it 14 consecutive wins.

Others have suggested that Dynaste was a disappointment but I think this criticism is wide of the mark. He might have finished a tired and well beaten 4th in the end but he ran with great promise for a long way. He tried to put it up to Big Buck's from the front, which is a near impossible task, but against less supreme opposition he is well capable of registering a graded success in the near future.

The Minack and Reve De Sivola, the two I liked in the 3m Handicap Chase nearly managed to bring up the forecast. Both seemed to benefit to a certain extent from the blunder of Vino Griego two out. That is another I have had my eye on but I wasn't sure the 3m trip on soft ground would suit. And so it proved with him tiring in the last half mile and I suspect he would have been caught even without the mistake. The winner looks a progressive stayer and is one to respect in the big Handicap Chases when the ground is on the soft side of good. Nicholls seems to hold him in some regard, especially as he purposefully bypassed the Welsh National for fer of bottoming out his young chaser. There appears every chance that his faith might be rewarded. Reve De Sivola again ran his customary frustrating race with a series of slow jumps costing him ground before he stayed on very strongly at the death. He is definitely fairly weighted and I'm sure that Nick Williams will win a valuable race with him at some stage, the question is when.

The Ladbroke was as competitive as it looked on paper with about 6 in the air together at the last. In the end the Alan King trained Raya Star battled to victory with the Tim Vaughan trained outsider Rigidity in 2nd and Alarazi a short head 3rd. The hot favourite Prospect Wells ran a pleasing enough race in 4th without ever looking like winning. Back on a sounder surface he is entitled to run well in the Supreme at the Festival. The form of the race was a big boost to another Nicholls Festival challenger in Rock On Ruby. This one has outside Champion Hurdle aspirations and his credentials are set to be tested in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He had both Raya Star and Alarazi a long way behind him when winning the Gerry Fielden and looks a smart prospect. I doubt the Christmas Hurdle will play to his strength but it will be interesting to see how he fares. Sailors Warn ran a fair race but could never quite get on terms. The unusually slow pace might not have been the biggest help. Another not helped by the pace was the 3rd horse Alarazi. He travelled very keenly for a long way after finding himself with little cover. I thought he might drop away as the rest came to challenge but he kept on really nicely and looks capable of winning another big handicap. His next target will be the Totesport Trophy at Newbury. I am sure he will meet a few of today's rivals there.

Things were less of a success up at Haydock and this just reaffirms my belief that it is best to leave racing on heavy ground well alone. Wymott was disappointing and never really got into it at all. Jason Maguire wasn't hard on the horse and I'm sure his day will come. Reindeer Dippin was a lot closer to a return in 4th but I am disappointed that he wasn't at least in the frame. He plugged on past beaten horses but to be honest never looked dangerous. In those conditions it is hard to make up ground and he never threatened those in front. He is still a horse to keep on side when the mud is flying.

Saturday Racing

I hope some of you managed to get some of the 4/1 about Our Father today. This is a horse going places and he is well worth following, providing the handicapper is not excessively harsh. Today was ideal because he didn't win by far, but it showed just how good he could be because he was the only one to get anywhere near Shoreacres who was a clear second having slipped the field. I wouldn't be surprised to see him reappear under a penalty, and if he doesn't then that might be even more of a hint that the Pipe team still think there is another big race in him of his revised mark. He is well worth following for the time being. In the two novice races, Zaynar was an impressive winner of the chase. He jumped well and had the rest at it from a long way out. This was a big form boost for Walk On and Grands Crus who have both firmly put him in his place at Exeter and Cheltenham respectively. No doubt he showed improved form here but those two were far superior to him and I find it hard to imagine the form being turned around. In the hurdle Molotof was the winner but had to fight hard to beat Peckhamecho. Hazy Tom was slightly disappointing back in 3rd but the ground went against him and he will be seen to better effect on a sounder surface. My immediate impression was that there were no Cheltenham Festival winners in the race. The likes of Fingal Bay and Simonsig look some way clear of these.

Now on to Saturday's racing. Big Buck's is the obvious highlight as the finest staying hurdler of this, or any other generation, goes for win number 14. He has looked imperious for quite a while now and it is very hard to see his colours being lowered on Saturday. Dynaste is the fly in the ointment but, whilst his Haydock handicap rout was most taking, this is whole different game altogether. The same stable took on Big Buck's twice last year with Grands Crus but were dismissed with the usual contempt. Dynaste looks exciting but I see no reason why he will not be treated in the same manner. One small concern is that this will be Big Buck's first attempt right handed since arriving on these shores. That is no great worry though and it would be astounding if it brought about his downfall. He could absolutely despise it and still run out a comfortable winner such is his superiority. At the current 3/10 he looks a value bet, despite the prohibitive price.

In the Silver Cup the two I like are The Minack and Reve De Sivola. The first named has looked a progressive horse and a mark of 150 looks within his compass. He won the Badger Ales in good style last time and I think the course and ground will suit. Reve De Sivola has always promised to win a nice handicap and a mark of 139 looks lenient considering he was a Grade 1 winning hurdler. He is another who appreciates a bit of cut and with a clean round of jumping, and the cheekpieces back on, can go close. At 6/1 he is worth an EW bet.

The Ladbroke, Europe's most valuable handicap hurdle, is a more competitive affair. It is another Nicholls inmate that heads the market in the shape of exciting novice Prospect Wells at 4/1. He has looked good on three occasions this season already and it would be a disappointment of he were not better than a mark of 142 in time. His chance is obvious, especially with stablemate Brampour at the head of affairs to keep the weights down. It is not hard to see him winning, and it would be nice if he did win well. Brampour is entitled to run another big race but he has been busy this season and both the handicapper and his punishing schedule might be starting to catch up with him. Nicky Henderson, 3 times a winner of this race in recent times, seems to have Gibb River as his main hope. He was a close 3rd at Sandown a couple of weeks back and should come on for that which would put him in the mix. Sailors Warn also found Steps To Freedom too good back in October but he was giving 8lbs leaving him better off at the weights compared to Prospect Wells. He also has form on soft ground and should go well, especially as he showed his ability to handle a big and competitive field with a good effort in the Triumph. 4yos don't have the best record in this race but last year's crop have looked a cut above average. The Ellison pair of Marsh Warbler and Abergavenny could both go well. Raya Star will be popular after finishing 3rd behind the Nicholls pair of Rock On Ruby and Empire Levant in the Gerry Fielden 3 weeks ago. Another from that race is Alarazi who was back in 5th after running no sort of race at all but is reported to have come on for the run. He needs to return to form but he was an impressive winner of the Imperial Cup and might still be capable of better. Ciceron has won off a higher mark than this and could surprise a few at a big price. It looks as tough as you might expect, but Prospect Wells, who connections clearly think is well handicapped, could be a cut above them. The 4/1 looks reasonable but I'm uncertain that the testing conditions will be in his favour. Therefore, I think it is worth taking a bit of the 10/1 about Sailors Warn EW. I will also be having a small EW bet on Alarazi because I would be livid if he won and I hadn't backed him, and I keep coming back to Ciceron too who has shown his best form right handed and has won from a 3lb higher mark. The horse and the stable have been out of form but at 50/1 the price more than compensates for those doubts and he is worth a small EW play. There are any number with chances and you could pick out 6 and still not have the winner. 


Over at Haydock I can't let Wymott go unbacked in the Tommy Whittle. I'm sure that he is on a fair mark and whilst he would appreciate a bit of cut, I'm not sure the heavy ground is ideal. He is a thorough stayer and after a promising run in the Hennessy this looks an ideal place to get back to winning ways. 


Earlier on the card Reindeer Dippin should be backed EW at 9/1. He has won 5 times under rules, 3 times on heavy ground and once on soft. When the mud is flying he is one to have onside. The ground at Haydock should be right up his street and he will still be going when many have cried enough. He was a fair second at Aintree last time, and not disgraced behind Dynaste the time before that and rates a confident selection. 


If I get a chance I will try and have a look at some of the other races and see if anything jumps out. Best of luck to all who play.

Friday Action At Ascot

The Friday card has two cracking novice events which should prove very informative with the Festival in March very much in mind, plus an intriguing seasonal debut from one that might prove a good deal better than his current mark.

The Kennel Gate Novice Hurdle is a Grade 2 over 2m and is an opportunity for a really smart novice to stamp themselves on the Supreme at the Festival. The favourite for that race in March is at 10/1 which shows how open it currently is. Everything we have seen so far (Steps To Freedom, Prospect Wells, Montbazon and others) have looked beatable, but one yet to have his colours lowered in 5 starts (a Point, two Bumpers and 2 Hurdles) is Hazy Tom. He has yet to be tested at a high level and this represents the acid test of his ability. The form of his two hurdle victories is working out exceptionally well, with the 2nds winning a very good novice race at Newbury (It's A Gimme) and looking every inch the winner at Cheltenham last week before tipping up at the last (Sea Of Thunder). He is definitely going the right way and if he is to develop into the Supreme candidate that connections hope he would be expected to take this. His main opponent looks to be the Henderson trained Molotof, who ran well as a juvenile without winning, the highlight being a good 2nd to subsequent Triumph winner Zarkandar at Kempton. He has won two lesser events already this season and he will provide a formidable opponent for the first named. Next in the betting is Peckhamecho, but he has always come up short against the best in the past. Heather Royal has made a pleasing start to her hurdling career despite unseating last time but it Molotof is the choice of Barry Geraghty. It looks a straight match between the two at the head of affairs and it would be disappointing if one or the other were unable to win. It is difficult to call (they are both rated 143) but Hazy Tom is receiving 4lbs which might just make the difference. Both look smart and the advice is to watch and learn on this occasion.

The 2nd race of interest is the 2m3f Grade 2 Noel Novices' Chase for which a quality field of 6 have assembled. It looks a really competitive race with it impossible to rule anything out with confidence (the 4 with ratings are rated 142, 142, 142, and 150). Pacha Du Polder heads the market with most firms but I'm not convinced his nose beating of Eradicate is the best form on offer. How he is rated as high as 150 is beyond me. He is held in high regard, and was considered for the Sandown Grade 1 that Al Ferof won, but comes here instead. He is respected but at the head of the market he is passed over. Next best is Chablais who has always looked a horse of huge potential. He won easily first time up this season at Kempton but jumped markedly left handed. That will not be a help here and that trait will need to have been ironed out for him to win this, unless his engine is exceptional. Kumbeshwar, another 4 year old, with good hurdles form having finished 2nd at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown, is next. His chasing debut was most taking as he jumped very pleasingly. This is a big step up in grade but he receives the handy 4yo allowance (as does Pacha Du Polder) which will help. Micheal Flips was a good 2nd to Cue Card and then won easily last time. This is a step up in class and he is one that possesses perhaps a little less potential than some of the others. Zaynar has chased home two decent sorts in Walk On and Grands Crus the last twice and seems to be gradually recapturing his form that saw him antepost favourite for the Champion Hurdle at one stage. Frascati Park has won two on the bounce, but as with Micheal Flips is perhaps more exposed than some of these. It really is very hard to come to any definitive conclusion but the two I like are Chablais and Kumbeshwar. I would take the former who has always been rated very highly if his jumping has improved sufficiently because he clearly possesses a more than useful engine but if you were looking for a bet, at the prices, it might be worth chancing Kumbeshwar (7/2) to continue his winning start to his chasing career. For me, it is more a race to watch and learn than to bet.

The 3.05 looks a very decent handicap but the one of interest is Our Father. There has been a lot of talk about this one as a handicap blot for this season and he gets his first chance to show whether that is the case in seemingly ideal conditions. It looks a competitive affair but it is pleasing to see support for him in the market with him blue across the board on Oddschecker, plus £3,512 of the £3,698 currently matched on the race in the Betfair market is on this horse (mostly at 4.6 or 4.7). This will be no penalty kick but the 4/1 should be taken if you can get it.

Another take on the King George

Tom’s biblical preview of the King George is an excellent overview of the Christmas showpiece, but I will add my opinion into the mix as we disagree, and have done fervently for the last six weeks or so, on a couple of key issues. Although Tom’s analysis is usually far superior to my own, I think he has been a little bullish regarding Master Minded and the stamina question. Whilst there certainly has to be a degree of doubt regarding the trip, I don’t believe he is a definite non-stayer. Agreed, his victory in the Melling Chase was over rivals who had felt the pinch much more at the Festival, but he put the race to bed with the minimum of fuss and certainly wasn’t stopping at the finish. I also agree that his stride was shortening the last time out when defeating Somersby and Medermit at Ascot. But I’m certain he was no more than 85% fit for the race, as his trainer Paul Nicholls has stated the King George to be his target since the start of that campaign. Ascot was designed to be the final building block in a bigger picture, so his victory was more than adequate enough for me. I was also impressed with the way he cruised past Somersby and made Henrietta Knight’s gelding look distinctly average. Granted, that rival was a little disappointing in the Peterborough Chase next time out, but the sharp nature of the Cambridgeshire track might not have played to his strengths. And as Tom has already mentioned, Medermit ran a blinder the last day at Cheltenham off a mark of 157. If he ran roughly to that figure at Ascot, Master Minded can’t have been far off 165. And that was when he wasn’t fully fit. If he can wing Kempton’s fences with his usual zest, and Daryl Jacob adopts the positive tactics that he stated he would on Wednesday, then Master Minded will have too much speed for the entire field if there is still something in the tank turning for home.

That was my head talking. Although I’m sure Tom will beg to differ. But my heart, as is the case with most racing fans, yearns for one more Christmas where we can all follow the Star. He is, without a shadow of a doubt, my favourite racehorse and will be as long as I watch the game. I’ve grown up with Kauto Star, and it would make my year to see him record his fifth victory in the race. Although his performance at Haydock was scintillating, I’m a little concerned about his overall preparation. I genuinely believe the Ditcheat team had no intention of running Kauto Star in the King George before last month; I reckon they expected him to finish in the frame in the Betfair Chase and then planned to freshen him up for one final showdown up the Cheltenham hill. Regardless of what Nicholls, Smith, Walsh, or Baker were saying, Kauto’s performance must have come as a reasonable surprise. And because he was so well tuned for the race last month, I’m uncertain whether he can reach that peak again in a reasonably short space of time. Of course I want him to, but my money won’t be on his back.

In terms of the other runners, I share largely the same views as Tom. I’m a little sceptical about Long Run, particularly his tendency to give the odd fence a proper belt. I think Captain Chris has plenty of potential, although I can’t see Kempton being his day and I don’t hold in the same regard as Tom does. Somersby is still a young horse with a plenty of talent himself. He looks to have been crying out for a step up in trip. So it will be him, and Master Minded, that carry my Christmas cash this year.

Antepost King George

With the Christmas spectacular just 12 days away the anticipation is building ahead of what looks an excellent renewal of the William Hill King George VI Chase. The race has long been established as the 2nd most prestigious chase race of the calendar, behind only the Cheltenham Gold Cup. In recent years the race has been dominated by the legendary Kauto Star, who emerged victorious 4 times from 2006-09, but last season it was the young challenger Long Run who emerged triumphant on January 15th, when the race was postponed from its usual Boxing Day slot. This season the race looks better than ever. Kauto Star is the headline act as he seeks to win the race for the 5th time but Long Run will bid to retain his crown. Further interest is added by the dual Champion Chaser Master Minded attempting the 3m trip for the very first time, plus exciting young chaser, and last season's Arkle winner, Captain Chris finally steps up to 3m, a trip which he has appeared to by crying out for. 

Long Run (6/4) - The winner last year and holds strong claims this time around too. He went on to win the Gold Cup, no mean feat at just 6 years of age, and might still be on the upgrade. That said he is a precocious type and he was put in his place behind Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month. He is expected to improve for the run but there can be little doubt that connections were shocked at the manner of his defeat. He was off the bridle a long way from home and just kept plugging on. He has looked increasingly like an out and out stayer in his races and it might be that this speedier test will not play to his strengths. This is a stronger renewal than last year, and, whilst his claims are obvious, I fear he might get done for toe at a crucial stage of the race, especially with three horses with Grade 1 winning form at 2m in the race. It would be no surprise to see him record back to back victories but at the prices he is worth taking on.

Kauto Star (9/2) - Already a four time winner of this race but lost his crown in no uncertain terms last season when a 19 length 3rd to Long Run. He was then 3rd in the Gold Cup, before pulling up at Punchestown. The calls for retirement were louder than ever but he made such suggestions look positively silly when winning the Betfair Chase from a quality field. He was supposedly cherry-ripe for that engagement and the 2nd that day, Long Run, is expected to improve. Nevertheless, an 8 length deficit means that plenty of improvement is necessary for the gap to be bridged. There is no doubt in my mind that he was well below par in this race last season and, knowing that it suits his unique talents exceptionally well, it is no folly to suggest that history might be in the making come Boxing Day. So long as he is over his Betfair exertions then he has an outstanding chance in my book. Only Paddy Power quote 9/2 with 4/1 being the general offering elsewhere. He looks a certainty for a place baring disasters and that looks a very fair price for an EW bet to nothing. He has the support of Pricewise on this occasions and can only get shorter as the race approaches. Once the public gamble begins in earnest the bookies will be running scared. Everyone will be cheering him home come Boxing Day, myself included. I want him to do it, and I think he can too.

Master Minded (11/2) - A very classy performer on his day, never more so than when pulverising the Champion Chase field as a 5 year old back in 2008. That was an exceptional performance and he showed signs of his old self up in trip in the Melling Chase at Aintree last season. However, I think he might have been flattered that day because he had an easier time than most at Cheltenham, having been allowed to cruise home in his own time after a catastrophic blunder 2 out. His reappearance was poor, but I can forgive him that, and he was back to form at Ascot last time when accounting for Somersby. That rival did the form no favours in the Peterborough Chase but 3rd place Medermit ran a cracker in the Spinal Research Atlantic 4 Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last weekend. He has the ability to trouble the best but my massive concern with him is the trip. He was always considered a specialist 2 miler, and it is only since his stranglehold on that division has loosened that the step up in trip has been considered. To my eye he has looked to be running on fumes over 2m4f, and his stride was certainly shortening at Ascot last time. For me his a huge doubt to get the trip, and, even if he does, his form has been consistently around the low 170s mark for a couple of seasons now and that will not be good enough to win this. I am happy to rule him out, but would not be too disappointed to see him win because he would make a most exciting addition to the staying chase division if he does get the trip. However, in my opinion he is a definite non-stayer, so, until I see it, I will not believe it.

Captain Chrisattritional contest. Unlike Master Minded, this is a horse that has always looked to be certain to improve for the step up to 3m. Connections have always felt that this would be his best trip and conditions should be ideal for him in this race, provided the ground is not too soft. It is a testament to his raw ability that he was able to win the Arkle (2m) and a Punchestown G1 over the same trip. His reappearance left a little to be desired but he looked the winner before unseating Richard Johnson at the last. If he can find a fluent rhythm then I would be pretty sure that he will stay, he can definitely travel and he will battle, and that will make him go very close indeed. I think he is a horse with any amount of untapped potential and the step up to 3m should allow him to show his true colours. I would be bullish about his chances if his preparation had been less interrupted. The unseat at Exeter was hardly ideal, but of more concern is the fact that he has missed two subsequent engagements (Amlin Chase and Peterborough Chase) after reportedly scoping badly. I think he might be the type to benefit from a recent race to remove any lingering rustiness, but that opportunity has now been missed. It is no disaster, and, if he is there fit and well on the day, then I would expect an enormous run from him. However, my enthusiasm for his chance is slightly tempered by his interrupted build up.

Somersby (14/1) - He has been a consistent Grade 1 performer, knocking on the door, without ever getting his head in front. He was again beaten in the Peterborough Chase and my feeling is that he just a 165 horse. To win this he needs to improve considerably and I just don't see it. The step up in trip might help but I find it hard to see him fighting out the finish. He might just stay on into a place but I think there are others who present more attractive EW prospects given that I cannot see him winning.

Diamond Harry (16/1) - He has always been best when fresh and has never run right handed. Those two obstacles stand in his way in this. I have heard in some quarters that he is entitled to improve for the run after finishing 4th in the Betfair Chase but I don't buy it. I cannot have it that a horse who has always shown his best form first time up will suddenly improve for the run. He is a classy animal on his day but I felt he was exposed at the very top level in the Betfair Chase and it is hard to see him any closer in this.

Riverside Theatre (25/1) - 2nd last year but an unlikely runner this time around. If he took his chance then he is sure to shorten dramatically in the betting and, at this stage, his price reflects the fact that he is not expected to be in the line up come Boxing Day.

Noble Prince (25/1) - Another who is unlikely to take his chance and his price reflects that. He would be a good deal shorter if he did make the field. His trainer reported him as on target for the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase on 27th December at Leopardstown.

Weird Al (25/1) - All but certain to miss the race with Donald McCain suggesting he will be saved for a spring campaign.

Planet Of Sound (50/1) - He was a good 2nd in the Hennessy but, aside from winning a weak Grade 1 at Punchestown in 2010, has always been exposed at the top level. I see no reason why that should change but it is not entirely impossible that he might be staying on into a place if things fall in his plate.

Noland (50/1) - After the retirement of his stablemate Denman he is expected to take his chance in the Grade 1 Lexus Chase on the 28th December instead.

Nacarat (50/1) - His trainer has suggested that he might take his chance but it is hard to see him getting involved at the business end. He is a consistent performer at around 160 but far more is needed in this and the necessary improvement seems unlikely at the age of 10.

Golan Way (66/1) - A lively outsider after winning the Future Stars Chase at Sandown earlier in the month. He still has a lot to find and he seemingly lacks the ability of some of these.

Medermit (Not Quoted) - Trainer has said that he will not run.

Tartak (66/1) - Will not run. 

Conclusion - I think, as the betting suggests, this race revolves around the 4 at the top of the market; Long Run, Kauto Star, Master Minded and Captain Chris. They have no fewer than 30 Grade 1 wins between them, a quite remarkable statistic. Each represents an entirely different group with Long Run at the head of the young staying chasers, Kauto Star atop the older guard, Master Minded as the older horse stepping up in trip, and Captain Chris the young pretender trying 3m for the first time. For me, this is what makes this year's renewal such a fascinating race. My own opinion is that Master Minded will definitely not stay the trip, and for that reason I am happy to eliminate him from my calculations. That leaves Long Run, Kauto Star and Captain Chris as the three that I expect to fill the places. Deciding in what order is a little trickier. At the prices, and with my own doubts about him, I am happy to pass over Long Run for betting purposes. I think the prospect of improvement is possibly being slightly overplayed, and Nicky Henderson's reaction after the Betfair told its own story. It is clear to me that his connections were a little shell shocked at that result. As a consequence I think Kauto's terrific victory is being underplayed. He was comfortably the best horse on the day and his official rating of 174 is lower than I would give him. The handicapper rated the race through Weird Al, but he was ridden to get a place, so therefore gives a misleading rating for those ahead of him in my view. I think if Kauto Star can reproduce his Betfair form then he has an outstanding chance of adding a 5th King George to his unprecedented roll of honour. At 9/2 I wouldn't put anyone off a little EW bet. I think he will place and I think he might win, and at that price, I think it is worth the chance. The unknown quantity is Captain Chris. He hasn't shown anything like the level of form required but he has always looked a staying chaser in the making. His wins at shorter trips owe more to his natural ability than the fact that 2m suited him. He seems sure to improve for the extra mile and I would be confident of a big run from him if his preparation had been smoother. All is not lost, and I was heartened to read the positive bulletin from connections this afternoon. I have heard that he was consistently destroying Wishfull Thinking on the gallops last season, and whilst that one hasn't done a great deal for the form this season, he was a very good animal last term. I think he is at least a 175+ rated horse in the making over this trip and that puts him right in the mix. He might well win, but, as with Kauto, I think he will place. Therefore, he is a good EW bet at 8/1. However, unlike Kauto, I would advise people to wait until the day before investing. He looks like he will line up but it is not yet 100% certain. He has nothing like the public following that Kauto Star commands and his price is unlikely to collapse like Kauto's might. He might shorten a little but an EW bet on the day seems the best policy.

My own position on the race is Kauto Star EW at 9/2 and Captain Chris EW at 9/1. I am very happy with that, so long as both make it to the race in good order!

Whatever the outcome it looks a race to savour, with so many different angles all coming together in one Christmas spectacular. I cannot wait for the Christmas Day festivities to be over so the real Winter highlight can begin. All I want for Christmas is King Kauto to light up Kempton on Boxing Day one final time. An historic 5th King George would be quite something to behold, right up there with the very finest moments in our great sport. My ticket is booked and I cannot wait. Bring on Boxing Day.

While you are waiting for the big day to arrive, take the time to enjoy Kauto Star's display of utter perfection back in 2009 - video. Absolutely magnificent.