The Friday card has two cracking novice events which should prove very informative with the Festival in March very much in mind, plus an intriguing seasonal debut from one that might prove a good deal better than his current mark.
The Kennel Gate Novice Hurdle is a Grade 2 over 2m and is an opportunity for a really smart novice to stamp themselves on the Supreme at the Festival. The favourite for that race in March is at 10/1 which shows how open it currently is. Everything we have seen so far (Steps To Freedom, Prospect Wells, Montbazon and others) have looked beatable, but one yet to have his colours lowered in 5 starts (a Point, two Bumpers and 2 Hurdles) is Hazy Tom. He has yet to be tested at a high level and this represents the acid test of his ability. The form of his two hurdle victories is working out exceptionally well, with the 2nds winning a very good novice race at Newbury (It's A Gimme) and looking every inch the winner at Cheltenham last week before tipping up at the last (Sea Of Thunder). He is definitely going the right way and if he is to develop into the Supreme candidate that connections hope he would be expected to take this. His main opponent looks to be the Henderson trained Molotof, who ran well as a juvenile without winning, the highlight being a good 2nd to subsequent Triumph winner Zarkandar at Kempton. He has won two lesser events already this season and he will provide a formidable opponent for the first named. Next in the betting is Peckhamecho, but he has always come up short against the best in the past. Heather Royal has made a pleasing start to her hurdling career despite unseating last time but it Molotof is the choice of Barry Geraghty. It looks a straight match between the two at the head of affairs and it would be disappointing if one or the other were unable to win. It is difficult to call (they are both rated 143) but Hazy Tom is receiving 4lbs which might just make the difference. Both look smart and the advice is to watch and learn on this occasion.
The 2nd race of interest is the 2m3f Grade 2 Noel Novices' Chase for which a quality field of 6 have assembled. It looks a really competitive race with it impossible to rule anything out with confidence (the 4 with ratings are rated 142, 142, 142, and 150). Pacha Du Polder heads the market with most firms but I'm not convinced his nose beating of Eradicate is the best form on offer. How he is rated as high as 150 is beyond me. He is held in high regard, and was considered for the Sandown Grade 1 that Al Ferof won, but comes here instead. He is respected but at the head of the market he is passed over. Next best is Chablais who has always looked a horse of huge potential. He won easily first time up this season at Kempton but jumped markedly left handed. That will not be a help here and that trait will need to have been ironed out for him to win this, unless his engine is exceptional. Kumbeshwar, another 4 year old, with good hurdles form having finished 2nd at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown, is next. His chasing debut was most taking as he jumped very pleasingly. This is a big step up in grade but he receives the handy 4yo allowance (as does Pacha Du Polder) which will help. Micheal Flips was a good 2nd to Cue Card and then won easily last time. This is a step up in class and he is one that possesses perhaps a little less potential than some of the others. Zaynar has chased home two decent sorts in Walk On and Grands Crus the last twice and seems to be gradually recapturing his form that saw him antepost favourite for the Champion Hurdle at one stage. Frascati Park has won two on the bounce, but as with Micheal Flips is perhaps more exposed than some of these. It really is very hard to come to any definitive conclusion but the two I like are Chablais and Kumbeshwar. I would take the former who has always been rated very highly if his jumping has improved sufficiently because he clearly possesses a more than useful engine but if you were looking for a bet, at the prices, it might be worth chancing Kumbeshwar (7/2) to continue his winning start to his chasing career. For me, it is more a race to watch and learn than to bet.
The 3.05 looks a very decent handicap but the one of interest is Our Father. There has been a lot of talk about this one as a handicap blot for this season and he gets his first chance to show whether that is the case in seemingly ideal conditions. It looks a competitive affair but it is pleasing to see support for him in the market with him blue across the board on Oddschecker, plus £3,512 of the £3,698 currently matched on the race in the Betfair market is on this horse (mostly at 4.6 or 4.7). This will be no penalty kick but the 4/1 should be taken if you can get it.
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