Spring Double

The Spring Double is one of the oldest wagers and one of the most difficult. Trying to find the winner of the Lincoln or the Grand National on their own is hard enough, but trying to find both of them together is a near impossibility. However, I always view the Spring Double with a good deal more confidence than the Autumn Double (Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch). I suspect this is because I am primarily a National Hunt fan, meaning the Grand National feels like a 'home fixture'. That does not make the task any easier but it has to be worth a go.

Lincoln

My selection in this race comes with a good deal of risk attached. This is a horse that could win, but could finish last as well. His name is Fury (7/1). It might seem madness to be tipping up a horse that has failed to beat a single rival in his last three starts, but the advantage is that he has slipped to an attractive mark of 98, provided that he can recapture his best form. He was a smart juvenile, winning his maiden and the valuable Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy (beating Pisco Sour now rated 115, Formosina 112,  Measuring Time 102, Questioning 107, Auld Burns 102, and so on) in his only two starts. He then headed to Newmarket for the 2000 Guineas after an interrupted preparation. He was no match for Frankel (but neither was anything else) but kept on well enough to finish 5th. He then went to Sandown for the Heron Stakes and was just caught by Tazahum. That rival is now rated 115, and he had Neebras (now 117) and Pausanias (now 110) in behind. Then things took a turn for the worse as he was twice beaten at odds on (last on each occasion), and then was again last of 7 at Newmarket in October. However, his form both as a juvenile and early last season indicate that he is much better than 98. If he can recapture his best form then he will take all the beating.

There are a few reasons why he could do just that. He has been gelded since last season and it was reported that a twisted testicle was discovered which could explain why his form tailed off. Another is the very fact that the excellent William Haggas has kept him in training. He has no room for dead wood so must think that there are races to be won with him. He has (supposedly) been working well this spring ahead of this assignment, one in which his trainer has a fine record. And, finally, my own observations at the Guineas last year mean that I have to give him a chance. I wrote the following:

"The other to take from the race is Fury. I am in little doubt that he will be a very smart animal but he is still in need of more time to develop fully. He was unbalanced, being much higher behind than in front, suggesting that he has quite a bit of growing to do. He also looked like the run would bring him on. Indeed William Haggas did make it apparent that his preparation has been less than ideal, missing his intended prep race and ultimately that lack of experience and fitness told. In the race itself, he ran like he was lacking in experience. He seemed unbalanced and very green under pressure, particularly coming into the dip, and it was to his credit that he ran into 5th, albeit a long way behind the winner. I am by no means suggesting that he will ever scale the heights of the brilliant winner but he is certainly a horse who I am sure will find some nice races in the future, either later this season or as a 4yo and beyond. He would be the horse I would pick out as the most likely improver from what he looked like in the paddock"

I might be wrong of course but a horse of his ability, off a mark of 98, in a race that Haggas does well in, is a tempting proposition. I can well understand the people who think he is a mad selection (and he probably is) but in an open race with few obvious improvers he is one that could be far better than his mark and is worth chancing.

Grand National

I have narrowed this contest down to four (though a late change of mind is not beyond the realms of possibility). They are: Cappa Bleu, Prince De Beauchene, Sunnyhillboy and Becauseicouldntsee. I would not normally make a selection this early, preferring to wait until ground, riding arrangements and so on are known. However, I am not afforded that luxury on this occasion. 

Cappa Bleu (16/1) was a budding star on the Point-to-Point circuit back in 2009 and confirmed that promise when staying on strongly to land the Christies Foxhunters at the Cheltenham Festival. It is fair to say that his subsequent switch to Evan Williams for a rules career has not been plain sailing. He disappointed when beaten in a novice chase at Aintree first time up, then fell when beaten in the Hennessy. He then switched back to hurdles but was beaten at Taunton before being pulled up in the Albert Bartlett back at the Festival. That effort was in March 2010 and he then wasn't seen again until November 2011. He made light of the absence to win a decent handicap chase at Haydock. He then went to the Welsh National where he was a creditable 3rd behind two renowned mud larks in Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross. That ground wouldn't have suited at all and he was seen to much better effect at Ascot next time when giving a notably quiet ride by Paul Moloney. He was settled in rear but travelled strongly and made smooth progress to challenge nearing the last. He met the last wrong and could never quite get on terms but it was a pleasing effort nevertheless and will have set him up nicely for a tilt at the big one. Although he is a 10yo he is relatively lightly raced compared to most in the field but he has had plenty of experience in competitive big field handicap chases so I would not be concerned about that. He has had a nice break since Ascot and looks to have been trained with this day in mind all season. He jumps and stays well, handles good ground and he could finally fulfil his abundant promise from his early career.

Prince De Beauchene (9/1) has been the antepost favourite since winning the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last month. He jumped and travelled well, and stayed on strongly for a comfortable success. He might not have beaten much (a lot were out of form) but it was the way in which he did it that impressed. He has since been raised to a mark of 155 but races off of 143 here. I am not sure he is as well in as that would suggest but definitely think that he is handicapped to win. He won the 3m handicap chase at the meeting last season when in the care of Howard Johnson off of 138 and there can be little doubt that he is a better horse now. Willie Mullins has laid him out for this and it was telling that the impressive Bobbyjo effort came 10 days after the weights were announced. His win at the meeting last year also proved that he can handle the likely good ground well making his credentials look rock solid. He has yet to tackle the fences but is a big horse so would look to have every chance of taking them in his stride. Similarly he has yet to try a marathon trip but has not been stopping at the end of his races over 3m and stayed on resolutely to win the 3m handicap last year. They are small question marks but he looks capable of providing the answer. It is likely that he will be the mount of Ruby Walsh who has an excellent record over the fences.

Sunnyhillboy (16/1) caught my eye when the weights were released on 15th February. He was trading at around 40/1 at the time and I very nearly asked for him to be added to the 'Grand National Favourite' market. Regrettably I backed him in neither. My reasoning was that he could win at the Festival before coming here and AP McCoy would ride because Synchronised would not run. Those two factors combined meant he would be far shorter than the 40/1 available at the time. I was right on the first account but it looks like the Gold Cup winner might be allowed to take his chance. Whether he does or not is neither here nor there because I much prefer the chances of Sunnyhillboy anyway. He proved in the Irish National and at Cheltenham this year that he is a strong stayer which would give him every chance of seeing out the extended trip. The two question marks he has are the fences and the hard race at Cheltenham. He isn't the biggest horse around and has been liable to make the odd blunder during his career. That could mean that the Aintree fences present a problem for him. He did have a hard enough race at Cheltenham but stayed on really strongly after the last to go right away. If he can overcome those two doubts then he is a very well handicapped horse who can go close. 

Becauseicouldntsee (22/1) finished 2nd behind Sunnyhillboy in the Kim Muir at the Festival and in many ways his credentials are similar. He is a proven stayer (good 2nd in the 4m National Hunt Chase in 2010), handles good ground, and looks to be on an attractive mark. The question he has to answer are again the fences and whether he is over that Cheltenham race. He has fallen 3 times in his chasing career, including at the 2nd in the National last year when well fancied. However, in the main he is a good jumper so I think he will have every chance of negotiating the course so long as things go his way. He has run well on the back of similar breaks in the past so that would not be a big worry. He looks the right type for the race and I think he has a great chance of making up for last year's mishap.

That is the shortlist of 4 but narrowing it down to one selection is difficult. I think Sunnyhillboy and Becauseicouldntsee are riskier propositions because of their potential jumping frailties (most notably the former), Prince De Beauchene has solid claims, but the same comment applies to Cappa Bleu and, at best prices of 9/1 and 16/1 respectively, preference is for the last named. I will add the other Grand National fancies nearer the race once the bookies start competing on offers should they still appeal.

1pt EW Double Fury (7/1) and Cappa Bleu (16/1) with Paddy Power paying 5 places on both races.

To Retire Or Not To Retire. That Is The Question.

Should Kauto Star be retired? The answer is a simple one. I don't know. And nor do you. Unless, of course, your name is Paul Nicholls, Clifford Baker, Ruby Walsh or Clive Smith. 

The Kauto Star camp has put a lot of egg on a lot of faces this season after the extensive calls for his retirement at the end of the last campaign. In many ways that laboured Punchestown effort and his effort in the Gold Cup last week are comparable in that they both fall into the 'too bad to be true with valid excuses' category. For some reason it seems people forget very quickly that this horse stormed home to win the Betfair Chase by 8 lengths with the reigning Gold Cup winner and the best of the up and comers trailing in his wake. He then went on to win a historic 5th King George in December with a quality field well beaten. I am sure we will all agree that those are two of the finest moments in our great sport but if Nicholls et al had listened to the uninformed this time last year then none of that would have happened. And what a crying shame that would have been.

Who is to say that he couldn't return again? I am not saying he can, and I am not saying he will, but the Kauto Star team, who know him so well, should be left to make the decision. It helps not at all to have uninitiated people saying 'he should be retired' when the evidence they have to support their view is so limited. On the racecourse evidence available to us he 'should' have been retired after that lifeless display at Punchestown but Nicholls et al knew he was capable of better, they knew he was flying at home before Haydock, they knew he wasn't ready to be retired. We didn't. 

He has been a great horse, he still is, and he has given many of us our finest memories. But I can only imagine the gratitude and affection that those connected with the horse feel. For some inexplicable reason people seem to think that connections wish to exploit him when the horse owes them nothing and he deserves a long and happy retirement. They are correct in that he owes nobody anything and he deserves a happy retirement, more than any other horse that has gone before, but they are as wide of the mark as it is possible to be if they seriously think that the horse's best interests are not paramount to their thinking.

I find the idea that stumps should be drawn after one explicable poor run a strange one. This is, after all, officially the highest rated chaser in training at the present moment, the winner of the Betfair Chase and the King George. He is no back number and one below par effort (with excuses aplenty) should not mask that fact. Moreover, he looks to love the game as much as ever. His antics in the paddock before his pre-Gold Cup racecourse gallop at Wincanton were testament to that, as was the way he strolled round Cheltenham as if he owned the place (and he nearly does) soaking up the applause. If Nicholls et al are happy with him and he is enjoying himself when he returns from his summer break then I see no reason why he should not continue.

The decision to retire or not is one for connections, the people that have looked after his every need for years, the people that see him everyday, the people that know him inside out. They will know when the time has come. It might be that he never races again, it might be that he turns up at Haydock Park on November 17th to strut his stuff again.

The horse owes nobody anything, but we, the racing public, owe connections plenty. They have given us this great horse, campaigned him boldly, and maintained him at the peak of his powers for a scarcely believable period. We owe them the time and space to make the correct decision on this question. Let us give it to them.

Cheltenham Review - Friday

Triumph Hurdle

This was a race that didn't excite me greatly beforehand and doesn't excite me greatly afterwards either. They had all been beating each other throughout the season with no clear outstanding candidate emerging. In the end, the race itself produced exactly the same result with Countrywide Flame beating Hisabaat by 3 lengths, who had beaten Countrywide Flame by 3 lengths in the Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown. Shadow Catcher who finished 2nd that day was back in 12th in this. Grumeti had beaten Dodging Bullets an easy length and half in the Dovecote but was only a head in front here. Baby Mix had comfortably beaten Sadler's Risk in the Adonis but the form was reversed here. The list goes on. In short the form looked a muddle before the race and it looks more of a muddle afterwards. The one that had caught my eye before the race was Dodging Bullets and he did so again in the race. He travelled ominously well and looked like the winner at one stage before tiring late on. This was only his second hurdles start and he remains open to significant improvement. However, it is hard to think that any of these will have the same impact in open company as last year's renewal. My instinct is to draw a line through the lot in terms of genuine Grade 1 contenders, much like the RSA last season.

Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

The potato race was the chosen destination for Irish hotpot Boston Bob but in the end it was the relatively unconsidered but unbeaten (in hurdles) Scottish raider Brindisi Breeze who took home the prize. He had been labelled as a soft ground plodder by many, myself included, but he proved here that he is nothing of the sort. He sat handy, took it up a fair way out and kept on finding. Where he goes next is a matter of some debate. I gather from others that he isn't the biggest (regrettably didn't see him in the paddock myself) which would cast a small question mark over him as a potential chaser. He is already a Point winner so it is possible that such fears have been overstated. However, the other alternative is the World Hurdle where the phenomenon that is Big Buck's stands in his way. What is certain is that he deserves far more respect than he was afforded in most quarters this year wherever he ends up. I would probably lean towards the chasing option because his running style will suit Big Buck's perfectly. Big Buck's has been forced to make his own running from some way out in the past two World Hurdles which has not been ideal. As we have seen in the past (most notably at Aintree last year) he is far more impressive when another horse brings him clear of the pack. I fear that Brindisi Breeze would perform that role to perfection.

My concern with the form is that I find it difficult to accept that Boston Bob is as slow as he looked here. I had backed him at 7/2 a week or so before the race and was convinced that he was a 6/4 shot if he turned up. In the end he was backed into an SP of 6/5, too short, but an indication of the regard in which he is held. It is not the fact that he was beaten that is a concern but the manner in which he was beaten. For a horse for whom the Neptune was under strong consideration, he displayed a worrying lack of pace throughout the contest, never really travelling with any great fluency. He made up his ground from the rear despite not having the best of runs to challenge at the last, slightly missed it, and was never going to get on top from there on in. I am not saying that he definitely is better than this, but I would be surprised if he isn't. It might be that he needs softer ground to show his best (and therefore looked outpaced on good) but I just wonder whether he was a little below par. Some have suggested that he didn't look fantastic in the paddock (again I didn't see him myself) which may be one answer. It seems strange that a horse that had supposedly worked so well with the likes of Hurricane Fly and Quevega, and was strongly considered for the 2m5f Neptune, was made to look a bit slow by proper stayers in a 3m contest such as this. However, it is important not to detract from the winner, who was ultimately well on top at the line, but I wouldn't be dismissing Boston Bob just yet either.

Gold Cup

I had this one down as a two horse race for a long time with Long Run and Kauto Star seemingly comfortably clear of the pack. After the late injury scare with Kauto Star, which could hardly have come at a worse time, and Long Run being only workmanlike in his prep (and having a hard enough race as a result) there was a sense that a shock might be on the cards. I had no opinion strong enough to justify a bet but equally I was sufficiently deterred not to be piling into the favourite and was instead happy to let my post King George bet (optimistically) ride on Kauto Star. 

The very fact that Kauto Star was there to take his chance was probably the highlight of the race. He was applauded into the pre-parade, he was cheered into the paddock, clapped around the paddock, cheered onto the course and down to the start. Everywhere he went the vocal praise from his adoring public followed. But the race did not go to plan. I, like many, felt predominantly a crushing sense of anti-climax. Kauto Star was sensibly pulled up early by Ruby Walsh which robbed the race of its star attraction and I must confess to spending longer watching Kauto Star canter steadily back to the horsewalk than watching the rest of the race unfold. This sense of disappointment was only increased post race when I am sure I was not alone in thinking 'if only'. If Kauto Star had been able to reproduce his Betfair or King George form a 3rd Gold Cup would have been his. If. 

As the race developed, Long Run appeared to be moving as well as anything but The Giant Bolster and Time For Rupert still being at the head of affairs turning down the hill was a strange site to behold. It certainly didn't quite evoke memories of the fantastic sight of Kauto Star, Denman and Imperial Commander storming down the hill together with Long Run in hot pursuit just 12 months ago. Nevertheless, there they were and there The Giant Bolster would stay. Time For Rupert dropped away and Long Run looked to have the race at his mercy once more. However, clinging on to their coat tails under an inspired AP McCoy was the rather uninspiring Synchronised. He was outpaced throughout but kept on fighting and kept on finding for McCoy's urgings. I commented that he would win coming down the hill as he was still in touch and was sure to come back up it strongest of all, and so it proved. Long Run didn't storm away as he had done last year, The Giant Bolster kept on but a slow jump at the last opened the door for Synchronised who stormed up the hill to win going away. 

It is hard to argue that it was a vintage renewal with horses all over the place to hold the form down. However, if we were not going to be treated to a vintage renewal to match those of previous years then I am delighted that AP McCoy, Jonjo O'Neill and JP McManus were treated to Gold Cup glory. It would be impossible to name a jockey, a trainer and, in particular, an owner who deserve it more. The fact that the three could do it together (as they had with Don't Push It in the Grand National) was a marvellous result.

There can be little doubt that the era of great staying chasers is drawing to a close, and might even be at an end should Kauto Star not reappear next season, but more of that later. In many ways, the result merely emphasised just how good the likes of Kauto Star and Denman have been. It has become the norm for the Gold Cup winner to record a rating in excess of 180 in victory but this is not 'the norm', and nor should it be treated as such. These are exceptional horses that we have enjoyed over the past few years and a return to normality was an inevitability. Their like do not come around very often and the fact that we have been blessed with two (possibly more) of them at once is a special thing. We cannot expect to have another ready to take their place when they bow out.

It is hard to see Synchronised as a dual Gold Cup winner, especially as he doesn't have age on his side (will be 10 next year). The questions for next year's Gold Cup appear to be will Long Run recapture his form at 8? Can The Giant Bolster improve again? Or will the novices led by Sir Des Champs and Bobs Worth be the key contenders? The market has the answer to the last question answered as an emphatic yes already with Sir Des Champs the general 6/1 favourite and Bobs Worth next best at 8/1. I am inclined to agree and my personal preference would be the former who looks a touch classier and promises to stay well, though that is a question he still has to answer definitively. As a result, there appears little value in his price. 

Next season looks an open renewal at this stage and it is quite possible that we are entering a lull in the staying chase division. After the efforts of Denman and Kauto Star, two legends of the game, this is hardly surprising. It might be that something emerges from the pack to stake their claim but I wouldn't count on it. The law of averages says we are due a period of moderate winners. I don't begrudge him his success (in fact quite the opposite) but Synchronised is possibly the first name on that list. There may be at least a couple more to follow.

Champion Chase 2013

I mentioned a fancy for a horse in the Champion Chase at 50/1 when I wrote my Wednesday Review a couple of days ago. I see that others are looking along the same lines, and, with 66/1 now available in a place, the time looks right to take advantage. This does come with a health warning and is undoubtedly a bet fraught with risk. It is just as likely (if not more) to be down the drain before the start of the season than it is to be a winner. 66/1 shots without question marks don't exist and, all things considered, this one is worth a chance.

The 2m division is widely regarded as weak, but that could all change next season when potential superstar Sprinter Sacre steps into open company. He has already proven himself up to the task with facile wins in the Game Spirit and the Arkle, and is a warm order to follow up in the Champion Chase in 2013. However, odds of no bigger than 11/8 are hardly tempting at this stage, especially as so many things can go wrong and so quickly. The clear favourite aside, the division lacks strength in depth but an alternative that I like at this stage is Sanctuaire. He is the last name quoted with both Coral and Stan James, and can be backed at 66/1 with the latter. Of those above him in the market (the favourite aside), there are reasons to oppose them.

Finian's Rainbow - Reigning Champion but may step up in trip with yard preference for Sprinter Sacre. He'll be 10 next season too.

Sizing Europe - He will be 11 and whilst he can still go well, age might start catching up with him.

Peddlers Cross - He will be going back over hurdles according to trainer Donald McCain.

Flemenstar - He has shown his best form on soft ground and his future surely lies over further. He'll be 'Gold Cuppin' according to his infamous trainer Peter Casey.

Cue Card - No match for Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle and another who looks set to step up in trip.

Al Ferof - Same comments apply as for Cue Card with targets such as the King George looking more likely.

Somersby - A possible but appears tripless and tends to get outpaced down the hill at the minimum.

Big Zeb - Too old this year and will definitely be too old next year. Also unlikely to travel.

Wishfull Thinking - Form has deteriorated since a brilliant novice season. He might get back on track but has questions.

Menorah - Miles behind in the Arkle and needs to improve considerably.

Kauto Stone - Another possible but probably lacks a gear to win such a race, but may have place prospects. Possible that his future is over further as well.

Sanctuaire himself is hardly devoid of question marks but at 66/1 that is factored into his price. He was a high class hurdler (rated 150), he has Festival form (bolted up in the Fred Winter, albeit off a lenient mark), and, most importantly, looks to have taken to fences very well indeed. On his fencing debut at Taunton he went off like a scalded cat in front, never saw another rival, and stormed home in a fair time. It was the same story at Sandown next time where he had the 130 rated Gracchus a legless 41 lengths behind, with the 120 rated Prince Buster another 16 lengths in arrears. It is difficult and dangerous to read to much into the bare form but it would be impossible to argue with the manner of vicotry especially as, on both occasions, he has impressed greatly with his exuberant jumping. He is a good looking animal, very classy and very speedy. His downfall is his temperament which has posed Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls a number of headaches through his career. He has been very strong (and still is), has virtually refused to race, and so on. However, he has looked a happier horse since going chasing and it could be that fences are the making of him. 

He is due to contest the Maghull Novices' Chase at Aintree next month where he will likely face Sprinter Sacre. If he were to do the unthinkable and beat that one then his price would collapse. If that one didn't turn up and he won in his absence then his price would collapse. If that one did turn up and he ran him close then his price would collapse. You get the picture.

He isn't there yet but he just could be better than anything else that Sprinter Sacre will have to face next season. He might flop in the Maghull but he might line up at Cheltenham in March 2013 as the 5/1 second favourite as well. It is a risky proposition but one I am prepared to take a chance on at the price.

0.5pts EW Sanctuaire at 66/1 with Stan James

Cheltenham Review - Thursday

Jewson Novices' Chase

The Jewson was a frustrating race in that I had backed Peddlers Cross for the Arkle and was very keen on Sir Des Champs for the RSA. In the end I wasn't madly enthusiastic about either in this race, but for differing reasons. Peddlers Cross had had the Arkle as his target all season and the late switch was a concern. McCain stated that he hadn't been able to school him as thoroughly as he would have liked as his reasoning. That is understandable but this was definitely Plan B. Sir Des Champs looked likely to head here (strong Gigginstown representation in the RSA) but that seemed to have changed with a flood of money for the 3m race as a result of the injury to leading contender Last Instalment. Mullins also appeared to have the RSA as his first choice throughout, but, in the end, this race was his chosen destination. I am convinced that this horse is crying out for a step up in trip and will be a much improved animal at 3m. I was, therefore, happy to leave him alone in this race, fearing that he might find the pace hot before staying on late. Cristal Bonus was another potentially smart young chaser who came here on the back of a win at Kempton. The form didn't amount to much but the manner of victory was impressive. Champion Court and Solix had strong course form to their names from the Dipper, and For Non Stop had the rearranged Grade 1 Scilly Isles already in the bag.

The race itself slightly fell apart at the seams with Cristal Bonus never going at all (pushed along after one fence), Solix disappointing and Peddlers Cross never travelling. Champion Court set the pace and jumped well, running a fine race in defeat. However, the race was all about one horse and that horse was Sir Des Champs.

My fear about him getting outpaced  mid race proved wide of the mark as he travelled supremely well. He quickened smartly after the last to put the race to bed in a matter of strides in impressive fashion. He still has to improve to win a Gold Cup but I feel certain that he will be seen to even better effect up in trip. He finished his races so strongly over 2m5f that it is hard to think otherwise. He has the class and ability to travel at 2m5f pace, jumps well, stays powerfully, he has an excellent trainer and a good man in the saddle in Davy Russell (assuming he will choose him in the Gold Cup next season), all the ingredients you would want in a potential Gold Cup winner. He still has a lot to prove (has yet to run further than 2m5f for example) but he looks one of the more likely types for glory at Cheltenham next year. His performance has hardly gone unnoticed and prices of no bigger than 6/1 aren't hugely tempting at this stage. 

Peddlers Cross ran a very disappointing race and was beaten from some way out. He jumped OK, not exceptionally well but adequately, and was still being pushed along as early as the back straight. McCain said that he isn't the same horse over fences but I'm not convinced that he just isn't the same horse full stop. He was a favourite of mine with his tenacious never-say-die attitude but I do wonder whether his battle with Hurricane Fly in last season's Champion Hurdle has left its mark. He might return to his best but I will be watching him even over hurdles for the time being. I hope he comes back as good as before.

Ryanair Chase

This looked to be one of the races of the Festival and so it proved with Riverside Theatre just getting up on the line under a fine ride from Barry Geraghty. The vanquished both deserved to win with Medermit yet again finding one (or two) too good, and Albertas Run so brave in defeat in his bid for a Festival four-timer. 

There was a suspicion beforehand that Cheltenham wasn't Riverside Theatre's track and it could easily be argued that he confirmed that impression despite winning. He never travelled or jumped with any fluency but I would argue that he would benefit from a step up in trip. It would be no surprise to see him take in the King George and Gold Cup route next season, especially as Henderson no longer has Long Run sitting pretty in that division, and possibly has Finian's Rainbow forced up in trip to the Ryanair by the presence of Sprinter Sacre. 

Albertas Run ran another splendid race but it is hard to see him winning again at 12 next season. Conditions do suit him well and he could pick up some place money but you fancy (and hope) that one or two would have improved past him by then.

Medermit took his Grade 1 record to 2741423 in this. He is forever knocking on the door but rarely does it open for him. If he puts in a perfect round of jumping (blunders in both the Ascot Chase and the Ryanair) then he will surely have his day. Alan King is convinced that 3m will be his trip and it will be interesting to see how he fares if allowed to take his chance in the Bowl at Aintree, or in the King George next season. However, the suspicion remains that he is always likely to find a couple too good at the very highest level.

In 4th was Captain Chris, another favourite of mine. I backed him for the Arkle last season at 10/1 for a very nice win, and have followed him ever since. He looked sure to beat Medermit and giving him weight in the Haldon Gold Cup before a final fence departure, and then ran a respectable race in 3rd in the King George. He went completely off-track in the Argento at Cheltenham back in January and it was pleasing to see him run I slightly more normal race here. He still jumped right handed, markedly at times, and it is a testament to his ability that he was able to finish as close as he did, especially since he lost his position after a slight mistake at a crucial time. Indeed, the Racing Post comments in running state "plenty to do 3 out". He was only beaten 6 lengths and I feel sure that there is still better to come from him. Whether he will ever show his full potential is another question altogether because he looks a horse lacking in confidence to me. If Hobbs can get him to the King George happy and in peak form then I am sure he will make odds of 16/1 look very silly indeed. He has more ability than most and can win a big one if everything clicks into place.

World Hurdle

How foolish I was. All season I had taken the simple 'lump on' approach with regard to Big Buck's and it had paid dividends. But not this time. In Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars he was facing two speedy horses with Grade 1 form at the minimum trip. Stamina was a question mark for both but with no obvious pace angle I was worried that a slow pace and sprint finish might play into their hands against the great champion. With that in mind, I was tempted into backing both EW with Ladbrokes who were offering 1/2 the odds a place. That appeared an excellent offer, and it would have been had I managed to get one horse in the places! My other concern was the apparent poor form of the Nicholls stable with Rock On Ruby (not in the main yard) the only winner to emerge, and plenty of others running very poorly indeed.

Cross Kennon and Five Dream helped set a decent clip which immediately made Big Buck's a near certainty. The only question to answer was whether he was affected by the 'Ditcheat plague'. He wasn't. Ruby took it up leaving the back straight to ensure no sprint finish materialised with all the pretenders lined up to challenge in behind. But none proved up to the task. Oscar Whisky failed to stay, Thousand Stars travelled far too keenly and paid the price, and Voler La Vedette swooped late but to no avail. Whatever jockeys try, whatever horses he faces, the result is always the same. He is an absolute machine.

You can hardly describe him as impressive in victory but yet again it appeared that there were gears to spare, pricking his ears before and after the last as concentration flicked briefly from what was behind him to what was in front, and back again. It is very rare for a horse to treat rivals of this quality with such disdain and to do it time and time again.

Superlatives get used frequently, and loosely, but there can be no doubt that this horse is one of the greats. He is the greatest staying hurdler there has been, and one of the greatest horses we will ever see. He has already equalled Sir Ken's 16 race winning streak and it looks a formality that he will add a 17th to his tally with a 4th Liverpool Hurdle next month. Don't take him on, just back him, or if the short price is a deterrent, just watch this great horse strut his stuff. You won't see another like him. He is truly magnificent.

Cheltenham Review - Wednesday

National Hunt Chase

Another open looking race on paper to start the card, and another in which I relied on paddock appearance to point me in the direction of the winner. The trick had worked a treat with Cinder And Ashes in the Supreme the previous day and I thought I was going to strike again with Four Commanders leading at the last. In the end, a slight blunder cost him valuable momentum and he was to finish 3rd to reward the EW support at 12/1. In front of him were Teaforthree, the favourite, and Harry The Viking, my long term fancy for the race. Only 10 of the 19 to face the starter managed to complete the course, with both of the well fancied Willie Mullins contenders notable departures. Allee Garde fell at the 12th, bringing down stablemate Soll in the process. However, that aside, the result looked fair and there can be little doubt that three promising stayers came to the fore. I do like Harry The Viking and feel sure he can win a big staying race in the future. Something like the Scottish National would look ideal and, although a rise in the weights from 137 to 143 will make things tougher, that should be within his compass. Any marathon on good ground and he will be worthy of support. And the same comment applies to the 3rd Four Commanders too. I see that the Irish National is his intended target and I would certainly be looking to support him there should the ground be near good.

Neptune Novices' Hurdle

After the late injury to Fingal Bay and the defection of Boston Bob to the Albert Bartlett Simonsig was a warm order to finally give trainer Nicky Henderson a first winner in the race. Truth be told, there was never a moment's worry for his backers during the race, although the same cannot be said of the bumpy ride to Cheltenham! 

I had backed him antepost at 14/1 after a visit to Seven Barrows in January. I was already a fan of his (admittedly favouring the Supreme) and I was pleased to find that they held him in the highest regard too. I was, however, assured that the Neptune was his intended target so felt compelled to invest at what looked a sensational price. A facile win in the Morebattle Hurdle, and a growing consensus that the Supreme was the easier race, put his target into some doubt. In the immediate aftermath of the Kelso race it seemed inevitable that he would run in the Supreme but it later emerged that Geraghty favoured the Neptune and from there on in, the longer race appeared favourite. 

If the build-up had been an emotional roller-coaster, the race itself was anything but. He travelled with all his usual zest, absolutely hacked down the hill as everything else started to feel the pinch, was then left in front (far too early) by the departure of Cotton Mill, but from there on was always in complete command. Foolishly (in hindsight) at least, I had put in an in-running lay at 2.0 to recover my stake (some were doubting his ability to stay and battle, if required) so was cheering him home without a worry from a long way out. He made smooth and effortless progress through the field down the back straight and it was noticeable that as everything else was starting to be niggled along, Barry Geraghty was still taking a pull on the winner. It was an exceptional performance, leaving good horses trailing in his wake, in a very fast time, and all unextended. 

Whilst the race was diminished by the absence of Fingal Bay and Boston Bob, I find it hard to believe that the result would have been any different. It was after all the best novice hurdling performance (162 RPR) since the brilliant but ill-fated Monsignor (164 RPR) had won the same race back in 2000. 

Some have suggested the Champion Hurdle but I find it very hard to believe that Nicky Henderson will waste another year over hurdles with him. He looks like his jumping will improve for a fence (hurdles seem to get in his way) and I cannot wait to see him try. Assuming he will adjust to the bigger obstacles, and I think he will, he will take some stopping in the Arkle next season. He has a potent blend of speed and stamina and one hell of an engine to go with it. His trainer has already christened the brilliant Sprinter Sacre as the 'black aeroplane' and did suggest that this one might be the 'grey aeroplane'. Their free-going brilliance is certainly comparable and I can only hope that the grey follows in the footsteps of the 'black' next season. He is already a far superior hurdler (OR 157 for Simonsig and OR 149 for Sprinter Sacre), so he has every chance of being something a bit special in whichever direction they choose to go. Henderson did even suggest that he has the pace for the flat and he'd be a tough nut to crack in the Ascot Gold Cup. Rite Of Passage could only finish 3rd in the Neptune (OR 144) before winning the Royal Ascot showpiece so you would think that Simonsig has the ability. However, I somehow suspect connections will be dreaming of Cheltenham in 12 months time rather than Ascot this summer.

The one disappointment is how no bookmaker is prepared to offer anything bigger than 4/1 for a horse that has yet to fun over fences (Points excluded) and has yet to run over 2m. As you can no doubt tell, I am his biggest supporter, and have been for some time, but even I can't be tempted at that price. Hopefully somebody will offer something a little more tempting at some stage.

It was a performance of such dominance that it is hard to see anything in behind getting close to him in the future. Cotton Mill was probably the paddock pick and I would have been tempted with an EW wager at 14/1. But, by that late stage, the money had already come and he was no bigger than his 8/1 SP. He was in the process of running a fine race before unshipping Denis O'Regan at the 2nd last but the winner was travelling far better on his outside at the time. Felix Yonger proved best of the Mullins trio, not particularly surprising in itself. Monksland was in the process of closing when hampered by Cotton Mill but Carberry was niggling away so you fancy he would have been playing for place money regardless. Yet again Sous Les Cieux ran a curious race, appearing outpaced before plugging on. I am surprised that connections have persevered with the hold up tactics as he seems to lack any change of gear. I know he flopped when asked to make all in the Future Champions over Christmas but I would have thought that settling him handy would have seen him finish closer. There are no doubt a number of smart prospects lurking in behind but the winner looks a cut above and could be very very good indeed.

RSA Chase

I couldn't have got this one more wrong if I'd tried. The stats were heavily against Grands Crus, but stats are there to be broken, right? Wrong, as it happens. Grands Crus flops in 5th, and the slow boat, poor jumper, but trends horse Bobs Worth puts in an immaculate round of jumping to win convincingly. I backed Grands Crus to win (in a double with Sizing Europe) but am now glad he ran because I would have laid Bobs Worth all day long at a short price in his absence. I couldn't have had him at all after some moderate jumping throughout his fencing career. For the paddock pick I would have just sided with First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris again to add to Four Commanders). He looked primed to the minute and improved greatly on anything he had previously shown over fences, probably as a result of the good ground he relishes. He travelled very keenly through the race and I wonder whether a return to 2m5f (Neptune winner last year) for the Ryanair might be his aim next season. I think he stays alright but he travelled too strongly in this and the extra quarter mile might be too much. The winner is now no bigger than 8/1 for the Gold Cup next season but I can't see any value in taking that price because, like this season, it might be that he arrives at Cheltenham on the back of a string of defeats in unsuitable circumstances. This was an impressive win but I still doubt whether he is genuine Gold Cup material. He might be entering a weak division but there are others that I prefer at this stage. One who was no bigger than 8/1 for this year's Gold Cup was Grands Crus. He came with the exact opposite profile to Bobs Worth, with a string of impressive wins to his name. Whether he failed to fire, whether he failed to stay (as some had suggested before the race) or whatever, he must now have questions to answer. I find it hard to believe that this was his true running given that he beat Bobs Worth in convincing fashion in the Feltham on Boxing Day. It might be that he was suited by that test, and it seems certain that Bobs Worth was unsuited at the very least. He still has huge potential but it will be interesting to see where connections go with him now.

Champion Chase

The Champion Chase was the easiest race to sort out of the entire week. Big Zeb was too old and had lost his form, Finian's Rainbow was always exposed by a strong gallop and finished weakly, Wishfull Thinking was out of form, and I'm So Lucky, Gauvain and Realt Dubh were not good enough. That left the first two from the Tingle Creek in December to fight out the finish once again. Wrong again. Kauto Stone was a first fence faller, disappointing in itself but made significantly worse by the gaping distance between the front two and Big Zeb back in 3rd. I still think he would have had a decent chance of filling it. 

I must confess that I found it impossible to envisage defeat for Sizing Europe, however, after burning half my fingers on Hurricane Fly the previous day, decided against 'lumping on'. That was a good decision. I was hurt much less financially than might have been the case but I was still absolutely amazed at the result, and I still am in all honesty. 

The final fence fiasco (FFF) quite clearly didn't help but Finian's Rainbow was ultimately well on top at the line and I find it difficult to accept that Sizing Europe was an unlucky loser. I'd be much happier if I thought he was because that would at least give me some consolation that 'I was right' but was robbed by pure rotten misfortune. I don't think I was though. The FFF did cost Sizing Europe ground but I am not convinced it was the difference between victory and defeat. 

For followers of my antepost advice it was a bit of a result. I said the following on the 4th January "8/1 [about Finian's Rainbow] might look a big price if he wins [the Victor Chandler], but it might look pretty poor if he doesn't. However, if he doesn't win that would make Sizing Europe look like banker material. It is hard to see Sizing Europe getting any bigger (indeed 11/4 looks more than fair and unlikely to last long) and Finian's Rainbow will either shorten or be a write off after the Victor Chandler. Therefore, a dutching win bet would be the best advice. Whatever the outcome in the Victor Chandler a strong position will be guaranteed". Did I follow my own advice? No. Should I have done? Yes. I hope you were more sensible.

The race was unsatisfactory, the division looks weak, and the time is ripe for a new superstar to emerge. Finian's Rainbow will be 10 next season, Sizing Europe 11, so it is some good fortune that Sprinter Sacre is waiting in the wings. He might be just the standard bearer that the 2m chasers need. The only danger I can see in any antepost lists is Sanctuaire. He's a risky proposition but he has looked exciting in his first two starts over fences. I will consider a little at 50/1 before he runs at Aintree depending on the opposition. 

Champion Bumper

New Year's Eve looked the real deal in the paddock and he probably is. He came there to win the race rounding the home turn but could never quite get there before weakening close home. He is only 4 so this was a brave and promising effort. It will be interesting to see what John Ferguson has in mind for him. The other two to come clear with him were the Mullins duo of Champagne Fever and Pique Sous. The word beforehand had been that Mullins' bumper crop wasn't up to his usual standards and both were relatively friendless in the market. How wrong everybody was. The winner was Champagne Fever who looked a big raw soft ground chaser in the making which made his fantastic front running effort all the more creditable. He has huge potential once he fills his frame and faces a fence in time. Willie Mullins has even suggested that he might go chasing next season, missing out on novice hurdles, because that is where his future lies. Pique Sous travelled well but never looked like getting on terms with the winner.

Cheltenham Review - Tuesday

Supreme

Cinders And Ashes ran out a ready winner of the Supreme, despite a blunder at the last. I couldn't have had him on the form he had shown this season. He had done little to persuade me he was better than the horse that was exposed at the top level in Bumpers last season. However, he was the clear paddock pick to my eye, and I considered him worthy of an EW investment as a result. I had no strong opinion on who would win from a form angle so was happy to back who looked like they could after a paddock inspection. It was very tight in behind for the next 4 places, with Darlan staying on strongly up the hill. I promise you he was but I wouldn't have believed it myself. Perhaps the bridle horse label has been attached prematurely. My initial impression was that the winner was definitely the horse to take out of the race. That might seem obvious but it isn't always the case. Those in behind finished in a bit of a heap, something I never like to see in such a contest. It usually means that none of them are very good, rather than they all are. I didn't think it was the best renewal before the race and would be inclined to stick to that view for the time being. However, the winner was nicely clear, despite his last flight mistake, and I would give him a chance in open company. He has a bit to find to be challenging for top honours against the established stars but a Champion Hurdle campaign appears entirely reasonable. He should improve again and is another one for the McCain/Maguire team to go to war with next season.

Arkle

Sprinter Sacre was exceptional in the Arkle, treating his opposition with contempt. With the established 2m division looking threadbare at the top the time is ripe for a new young superstar to fill the void. He looks well up to the job. However, it is impossible to look upon quotes of no bigger than 11/8 with anything but incredulity. He might look brilliant but the very fact that Big Buck's can be backed at 2/1 for the 2013 World Hurdle tells its own story. A horse that just might be great at 11/8 or a horse that undoubtedly is at 2/1. Cue Card was no match for the winner and I just think he might become hard to place. I'm unconvinced he is a Grade 1 animal, especially whilst his conqueror is around. It might be that he finds a niche up in trip because he wasn't stopping up the hill but opportunities would appear limited unless he can find the necessary improvement for the top tier 2m races. That seems unlikely. Al Ferof was running a fair race before making a bad blunder at the top of the hill. That cost him all chance which was a shame because it would have been interesting to see whether he could have given the winner any sort of race. He will be seen to better effect over further even if he still seems to lack that little something. He's very good but I don't think he's brilliant. The X factor he has not, something that the winner has in spades.

Champion Hurdle

Rock On Ruby can hardly be described as a fortunate winner of the Champion Hurdle in that he looked well in command from some way out under a fine ride from the excellent Noel Fehily. However, the fact that both he and Overturn (2nd), were the leading duo throughout sits a little uncomfortably. Overturn had previously appeared exposed at the very highest level, and it could be that he improved for coming here fresh (a deliberate ploy). Even if he hasn't, the winner was a convincing one and quite possibly underrated. There was some 10/1 lurking for a repeat in the immediate aftermath which looked big given the manner of success. The current 6/1 best price looks nearer the mark. I somehow suspect the chasing idea might now be put on hold and this progressive horse is worthy of strong consideration should he return to defend his crown next season. The overriding impression was that the test that the Champion Hurdle represents was absolutely ideal for him. 

Hurricane Fly, the hot favourite, was backed into 4/6 but never looked like rewarding that faith. His billing as the 'best since Istabraq' might now seem a little premature. He is a very good animal and will no doubt clean up many more Irish Grade 1s before he is done, but whether he had an off day, or whether he was found out by the Championship pace (slowly run last year) must be open to question. I wouldn't rule him out but neither would I be in any rush to back him to regain his title as a 9yo in 2013. 

My immediate impression was that the other jockeys had allowed Noel Fehily and Jason Maguire too much rope at the head of affairs. I think it is true to a certain extent but I don't think it can be an explanation for their defeat. They had every chance to win the race if they were good enough. In this regard, comments put forward in the BHA Handicapper's Blog are of interest. It was suggested that the softer ground down the back straight played into the hands of the front runners who were able to quicken turning down the hill, leaving those in behind trying to quicken with them on the softer going. In truth I think it is a small point but, with both (ground and riding) taken together it is possible that the distance of defeat might have been exaggerated. However, I think it is very hard to argue anything other than Rock On Ruby being a worthy winner. To my eye it was a convincing success.

Of the rest, Overturn ran yet another splendid race in 2nd. I keep saying it, but what a horse he would be to own. Binocular followed Hurricane Fly throughout and never looked like getting past him, let along the ones in front. Zarkandar fairly finished like the proverbial train close home having been caught flat footed when the pace quickened down the hill. I was surprised to see him positioned so far back because his two key attributes are stamina and the ability to produce a gradual but powerful finishing kick. He was ridden for a turn off foot and was predictably found wanting. His effort still deserves credit considering he was affected by the Ditcheat cough, and ran in the Betfair Hurdle whilst under its cloud. He is still only 5, has only the 5 hurdle starts to his name, and, with another year on his back, a bit more experience, he could be one to watch. The downside is that it would appear a flat out gallop is an essential for this thoroughly likeable horse. Should he get his conditions then he could be a big player in 12 months time.

I wrote the above (with the exception of the BHA Handicapper's Blog comments) on Sunday, and that includes the comments about how Zarkandar was ridden. It was, therefore, pleasing to see Nicholls himself comment "In hindsight, Zarkandar could have been ridden closer to the pace in the Champion Hurdle but he finished strongly into fifth, probably running a career-best, and a longer trip will suit him" in his Betfair Blog. I would agree, however, I don't think a longer trip is essential. I am sure that he can be fully effective at the minimum, on the proviso that the pace is quick. And this might be the sticking point because he is liable to be caught out in a dawdling gallop. I hope that he is given his chance in next year's race because I believe he is capable of better than he showed and seems sure to benefit from another year for both experience and physical development. 

And, on that subject, what a race it promises to be. Rock On Ruby returning to defend his crown, Hurricane Fly and Binocular to regain theirs, Zarkandar having another try, plus the absentees (Spirit Son and Grandouet), plus some old faces returning (Peddlers Cross) and the inevitable batch of up and comers (Cinders And Ashes et al) and it has all the ingredients for a riveting race.

Mares' Hurdle

After the disappointment of Hurricane Fly, and a disaster in the XC, it was left to Quevega to get the Mullins bandwagon rolling. She proved more than up to the task, running out a predictably easy winner in a slowly run affair. She was 4 lengths clear at the finish and the fact that the distances between the next 10 in behind her were a neck, a neck, a neck, a 1/2 length, a 3/4 length, a head, a short head, a 1/2 length and a 1/2 length emphasises her dominance. It really was a case of Quevega 1st and daylight 2nd. Provided that Willie Mullins is able to get her back in peak form in 12 months time a 5th win looks a certainty. She is a long way clear of the rest.

Novice Handicap Chase

I don't intend to review the handicaps but no reflection on the 2012 Festival would be complete without at least a mention of Hunt Ball. This horse started the season back on 28th November when winning off a mark of 69. He has since won another 6 races and, most astonishingly of all, was beaten off a mark of 102 on 2nd January! The fact that he was able to run out such an impressive winner of a Cheltenham handicap off of 142 is a remarkable story. His rating will rise to 154 but you can be quite sure that his equally likeable owner, Anthony Knott, doesn't see the story finishing just yet. He is quoted as short as 20/1 for the 2013 Gold Cup and, whilst he still has a good bit to find to trouble the judge in such a race, he doesn't need to find very much at all to make his mark in graded races this or next season. I hope he can make the jump.

Cheltenham Festival - Tuesday

It has been a long wait but at last the biggest 4 days in jump racing are upon us. It is the stuff of dreams for owners, trainers, jockeys, punters and spectators alike. This year, like all those that have gone before, will see many more dreams broken than realised. However, for all concerned, the inevitable prospect of defeat is but a small price to pay for the brilliant euphoria of victory. Nothing comes close to a winner at Cheltenham.

1.30 - William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle (2m) Grade 1

Darlan (11/2) - Travelling well when coming down 2 out in the Betfair Hurdle but I get the impression that he wasn't going as well as it looked. He found very little at Cheltenham back in December and there is still a question mark over how much he will find.

Steps To Freedom (7/1) - Has been near the head of the market since winning a Grade 2 at the course in November from Prospect Wells and Ericht. Neither rival has done much for the form since then but it was reported that he was a little over the top after a summer campaign, and didn't appreciate the tacky ground. He has had a long break since but going straight to Cheltenham without a run since November must be a negative, even if it was intentional, especially as the form looks weak.

Montbazon (15/2) - Has long been the apple of trainer Alan King's eye and is starting to fulfil that promise. Beaten by Colour Squadron on his hurdling bow and then won as he liked at Plumpton. He then won a good race at Newbury when Colour Squadron fell but I suspect the result might have been different had the Hobbs runner stood up.

Galileo's Choice (8/1) - Very smart on the flat and has shown a fair level of form over hurdles too. Just got up to win his maiden and then found only Sous Les Cieux too good in the Grade 1 Royal Bond. However, that rival has looked decidedly one-paced since and there must be question marks over just what he has achieved.

Cinders And Ashes (10/1) - A smart bumper performer last season but exposed at the very top level at both Cheltenham and Aintree. Reportedly strengthened considerably since then and has shown smart, if unspectacular, hurdles form. Has been beating up inferior opposition on soft ground and this will be a different test altogether. Both trainer and jockey seem to like him.

Trifolium (12/1) - Plenty of experience under his belt, but all on soft ground. Came right away to win a Grade 2 on heavy ground last time and if he can transfer that form to good then he must have a chance. Appeared to be the Gigginstown 2nd string behind Midnight Game but is the unexpected choice of Davy Russell after reports of a poor gallop from the Mullins horse.

Tetlami (14/1) - A Listed Bumper winner but then had a year off before making a successful hurdling debut at Sandown. He then beat the well regarded Vulcanite at Kempton and won a jumper's bumper back at the track on the all weather during the cold spell. Decent but likely that he might find a couple too good.

Prospect Wells (16/1) - Chased home Steps To Freedom at the course in November but has proved largely disappointing since. The pace and the ground were not in his favour in the Ladbroke and then he flopped when a late addition to the Tolworth. He suffered a breathing problem that day and not impossible that he will leave his form behind back on better ground off a strong pace. The choice of Ruby Walsh.

Colour Squadron (16/1) - Wide margin bumper winner and has shown decent hurdles form in all four starts but only won the once. I think he would have confirmed form with Montbazon had he not fallen last time but more concerning is his form behind Captain Conan. No doubt he should have won that day but that rival has done precious little for the form subsequently.

Midnight Game (16/1) - The first Pricewise selection and has shown improved form on each occasion. A smart horse on the flat and it might be that he is starting to put it together over hurdles too. However, reports emerged in an Irish Preview that Mullins had been unhappy with his work. Passed over by both Davy Russell and Ruby Walsh which must put a question mark over his chances.

Vulcanite (22/1) - The second Pricewise selection and well regarded at home but has come up short on both occasions when he has faced a decent rival (Tetlami and Montbazon). Won a weak race at Southwell in between but he needs to find a good deal more to figure. Another for whom a decent pace might bring about improvement.

Agent Archie (33/1) - Another for McCain but preference is for Cinders And Ashes. Winner of two average novice hurdles but both in facile fashion. Hard to weigh him up but given the vibes from connections he looks to be the second string.

Dylan Ross (40/1) - Has already gained the bridesmaid reputation after four consecutive second place finishes. Midnight Game comfortably had his measure last time and hard to see a form reversal. That is not to say that he couldn't outrun his odds.

Allure Of Illusion (40/1) - Rumoured that he was the Mullins Bumper horse last season but missed the cut for the Cheltenham race and could only finish 3rd at Aintree (behind Steps To Freedom and Montbazon). Has yet to show anything like the required level over hurdles but looks sure to find a good deal more on good ground. A lively outsider.

Distant Memories (50/1) - Another smart flat recruit but has done little over hurdles to suggest he can take a hand in a race such as this. Still an intriguing outsider because he could go well if transferring his flat form.

Hazy Tom (66/1) - Looked to be a smart prospect when racking up a four-timer in bumpers and hurdles. Upped in class the next twice and well beaten on both occasions. Will appreciate the better ground but has a good bit to find to take a hand.

Simenon (66/1) - A distant second behind easy winner Trifolium last time and a form reversal is hard to envisage. Not completely without a chance but will need to improve on what he has shown so far.

Jimbill (150/1) - Smashed by Barbatos at Cheltenham in January and that leaves him with a lot to find to trouble the principles. Hard to fancy.

Catch Tammy (300/1) - Yet to win a race and very unlikely to lose his maiden in this.

Conclusion - A very open renewal with reasons to oppose all of those at the head of the market. I'm not convinced by the form of any of the obvious choices and therefore am looking for one of the outsiders to spring a surprise. I was keen on the chances of Hinterland but he misses out after failing to sparkle recently. In his absence I have no strong fancy for anything in particular. At the prices, Colour Squadron looks overpriced at 16/1 considering he already holds a verdict over Montbazon who is half the price. There was no fluke about that victory and I am of the opinion that he would have beaten him for a second time at Newbury last time but for coming down at the 2nd last. Whilst that is a small concern it wasn't a heavy fall and at the price he is worth the chance. A strong pace will suit him well and he should find plenty of cover until late in the day and is sure to stay strongly.

The 14/1 offered by Skybet with 5 places EW up for grabs looks well worth an investment to get the Festival started in the best possible fashion.

1pt EW Colour Squadron at 14/1 with Skybet (5 places)

2.05 - Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (2m) Grade 1

Sprinter Sacre (10/11) - Has looked very good indeed in his three chase starts, winning hard held, and in a fast time, on each occasion with his jumping notably slick and quick too. He folded up the hill in last year's Supreme but has had a year to strengthen and a breathing operation which might see that ghost laid to rest this year. However, that is a small question mark and he could run keenly.

Al Ferof (10/3) - A thorough stayer who looks sure to improve for a step up in trip. He has nothing like the pace of Sprinter Sacre and found himself in top gear for the duration in the Grade 1 Victor Chandler. That was a fair effort in open company but seemed to confirm that he wasn't a Grade 1 2 mile chaser. He'll run well but I think he could be staying on too late.

Cue Card (15/2) - Brilliant winner of the bumper at the Festival but flopped when a short priced favourite for the Supreme last season. Has decent chase form in the book but his jumping has been unconvincing and I doubt his heart for a fight too.

Menorah (11/1) - Well fancied for the Champion Hurdle last year but could only finish 5th. His chasing career has been blighted by mistakes and will need to iron out those if he is to threaten the favourite. However, even with a perfect round of jumping, I'm not sure he's good enough.

Blackstairmountain (20/1) - A Grade 1 winner over hurdles and fences but flopped the last twice on soft ground. Sure to be seen to better effect on his favoured good ground but likely to be playing for a place at best.

Foildubh (125/1) - A decent animal with Graded form but hard to think he is good enough to take a hand in such a hot contest.

Conclusion - A small but very select field with the notable absences of Champion Hurdle second Peddlers Cross an obvious disappointment. Sprinter Sacre sets a very high standard and after the defection of Peddlers Cross to the Jewson I find it very hard to see him losing his unbeaten chasing record here. However, there are still small question marks about his suitability to the undulating Cheltenham track and his free-going nature might make him vulnerable to a stronger stayer up the hill. Al Ferof looks the most likely alternative but found things happening too quickly in the Victor Chandler and I expect the same to happen here. Not a betting race now except for the Paddy Power offer which must be done. Al Ferof, for all that I don't really fancy him, looks the most likely to take advantage should the favourite disappoint.

2.40 - JLT Speciality Handicap Chase (3m) Grade 3

I have had Quantitativeeasing in mind for this race since his win in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham. However, I suspect he will go well without winning because it will be some ask to defy his welter burden. 

Hold On Julio is the obvious choice and it is not hard to see why. He won a Sandown handicap with any amount in hand last time with some indifferent jumping to boot. He has also had an interrupted preparation which is another question mark. They may be slight concerns but he could still well be ahead of the handicapper and might be worth the risk. I wouldn't wish to put you off.

One I like at the prices is Baile Anrai, another slightly risky proposition. He was still mixing it with the best in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown at Ascot last month when coming down 3 out. His jumping had been satisfactory up until that point but he also came down behind Silviniaco Conti at Wincanton earlier in the season. Those two effort bookend two wins and he looks to be on a fair mark. He also showed good form over hurdles when chasing home Fingal Bay in the Persian War in October.

The second selection is Fruity O'Rooney, a progressive animal who has shown marked improvement since moving up to 3m. He also handles good ground well and a mark of 140 doesn't look beyond him. He looks overpriced considering he would have finished much closer in the Skybet Chase but for his saddle slipping close home. He might well have won that day but gets in here of the same mark. Gary Moore has put him away since then and knows how to lay one out for a big race. 20/1 looks a nice price. 

Betfred and Totesport are offering 5 places and that offers an extra place insurance. However, at the prices I'd rather take a bigger price and settle for the 4 places.

1pt EW Baile Anrai at 14/1 with various

1pt EW Fruity O'Rooney at 20/1 with various

3.20 - Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (2m) Grade 1

Hurricane Fly (10/11) - Arguably the best 2m hurdler since Istabraq and his record speaks for itself. Silenced the doubters in emphatic fashion last year and then destroyed the opposition at Punchestown. His seasonal return was delayed after he was reported as failing to please his trainer Willie Mullins before Christmas. He bounced back in no uncertain terms with a facile win in the Irish Champion back in January. He ticks all the boxes and there will be more than a few long faces if he tastes defeat, mine included.

Binocular (5/1) - Winner of this race in 2010 but wasn't able to defend his crown last year. He has looked a shadow of himself for much of the spell since his Champion win but showed signs of coming back to form at Wincanton last time. It wasn't what he beat but how he did it that impressed. He travelled well and jumped slickly to score easily from Celestial Halo. A threat to the favourite if he shows his best.

Zarkandar (7/1) - Hugely likeable and a personal favourite after landing the odds on all four hurdles starts, carrying my money on each occasion. His Betfair win was hardly impressive but everything went against him that day and it is to his credit that he emerged victorious at all. He needs to show more but that looks likely. He will need a strong gallop to bring his stamina into play but with Overturn and Celestial Halo in the field that is probable. Few will be staying on stronger.

Rock On Ruby (10/1) - Never seen as a Champion Hurdle prospect but has improved enormously this season. An easy winner of the Gerry Fielden at Newbury off a mark of 145 and then improved again to push Binocular close in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Cheltenham promises to suit him far better and he is not without a chance.

Oscars Well (14/1) - Travelled notably well in the Neptune last year before losing all chance at the last. Has yet to get his head in front this season but fancied by many, including Mr Segal, to run a good race in this. Good ground and a strong pace will be to his liking but needs to show a good deal more.

Overturn (28/1) - A fantastic little horse who gives his all from the front. The good ground will suit him well and he could take some catching if he's in tip top shape. However, there are plenty of strong stayers in this race and it's likely that he will set it up for the others.

Zaidpour (33/1) - A no show in the Supreme but Mullins is certain that he lost him physically after his scintillating win in the Royal Bond. Has won 4 easy races this season and it wouldn't be a massive surprise if he outran his odds. A preference for softer going would be the concern. 

Brampour (66/1) - Racked up a quickfire double in two competitive handicaps early in the season, including the Greatwood. Then chased home Grandouet and Overturn in the International. Has since been a touch disappointing and it is hard to think he has the requisite class to trouble the market leaders.

Celestial Halo (80/1) - Very close to breaking Nicholls' Champion Hurdle duck back in 2009 when finishing 2nd to Punjabi with Binocular close behind in 3rd. Only 4th the following year and he just falls short of the very top level. He might benefit from the presence of Overturn because he won't have to make his own running. Could go well but likely to find at least a few too good.

Kalann (200/1) - A winner at the course in November but that was in a completely different league to this contest. His form since suggests he's likely to struggle.

Conclusion - Anything but a comprehensive victory for the reigning Champion Hurricane Fly will be a disappointment. In Binocular, Zarkandar, Rock On Ruby and Oscars Well he faces 4 excellent opponents but defeat his hard to envisage. He should win to confirm his status amongst the best 2m hurdlers.

Corals are going Evens tomorrow morning and that is a price worth taking.

5pts Win Hurricane Fly at 5/4 Antepost

2pts Win Hurricane Fly at 3/1 Antepost

1pt EW Zarkandar at 8/1 Antepost

1pt EW Binocular at 8/1 Antepost

4.00 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (3m7f) 

Not a race I usually get involved in but the Irish look to have a stranglehold once again with Scotsirish, Uncle Junior, Sizing Australia and Garde Champetre heading the market. Willie Mullins looks to hold the aces in the pack and there can be no doubt that Scotsirish is the class act. Stamina over the extended trip must be a slight concern but he is adapted to the unique test remarkably well and his form at 2m (6 1/2 lengths behind Big Zeb in a Grade 1 this season) will stand him in good stead in the usual sprint finish. He won with plenty in hand at Punchestown and will take the beating again. He could easily make a mockery of his price of 7/2. 

1pt Win Scotsirish at 7/2 with various

4.40 - OLBG Maress Hurdle (2m4f) Grade 2

Quevega is impossible to oppose for win purposes. She has stones in hand over the rest and provided she retains her ability, a small question mark but a question mark nevertheless, she will win with her head in her chest once again. 

I am a big fan of Swincombe Flame but I suspect this is tougher than Nick Williams expected. She is a really game mare and is sure to run a big race but might find this test sharp enough on the good ground. I am tempted to give her a chance because she's on the upgrade but will leave her alone under conditions.

At a bigger price the one for a small EW interest is Shop DJ. She showed smart form over hurdles last season and has not been disgraced over fences this season either. She needs to find ton to trouble the favourite but has nothing to find with the rest, including those ahead of her in the market. Davy Russell gave her a glowing report in the Boylesports Preview and at 20/1 she is worth an EW investment against the favourite.

1pt EW Shop DJ at 20/1 with various

5.15 - Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase (2m4f) Listed

A very competitive renewal with many runners sporting a decent selection of '1s' by their names. Bottom weight is only 11-4 indicating how tight this handicap is. Hunt Ball heads the weights and it would be a fairytale if he could win at Cheltenham for his eccentric owner Anthony Knott. He started the season off a mark of 69 back in November at Folkestone and now bids to defy 142 at the Cheltenham Festival. It's by no means an impossibility given the way he won at Kempton last month. I'd love to see him win but am happy to oppose him.

Bless The Wings was a convincing winner over course and distance back in January. An 8lbs rise doesn't look insurmountable and he is worth plenty of respect. Triolo D'Alene has been the talking horse since his win at Ascot. He could be the handicap blot but I'm not convinced give his Ascot performance that he's lobbed in and am happy to oppose him at the prices. Charminster was 4th behind Bless The Wings and could go well if putting in a better round of jumping. Donald McCain did say that he found everything happening a bit faster than usual that day and if that experience has done him good then he's not to be discounted. A Venetia Williams handicapper under a penalty is always worthy of respect and Carrickboy fits the bill. 

The one I like at the prices is Going Wrong. Ferdy Murphy has a remarkable record in Cheltenham handicaps and it is surprising that this one is not significantly shorter. Divers won the race last year and he looks to have laid this one out for a repeat bid. He has been well touted at a few Preview Evenings and looks worthy of support at 12/1.

Another, and one who is a bit of a cliff horse for me, is Vino Griego. Thankfully I haven't backed him this season but he finished 4th in this last year off a 2lb higher mark and has shown signs that he could go well in this again. He travelled well before tiring late on over 3m at Ascot and at Taunton. He has had a hurdles spin to put him spot on for this and he might just put in a bold bid. At 25/1 he is worth a small chance.

1pt EW Going Wrong at 12/1 with various

0.5pts EW Vino Griego at 25/1 with various

Other Bets

2pts Win Treble Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly and Quevega at 4.24/1 with Paddy Power

And, as it's Cheltenham, Steve Palmer's now famous 'face-spitter' has to come into play.

EW Accumulator: Colour Squadron, Sprinter Sacre, Fruity O'Rooney, Hurricane Fly, Scotirish, Quevega, Going Wrong


And various multiples with the above selections to boot.


Best of luck to everyone. At least the waiting is nearly over.