Champion Chase 2013

I mentioned a fancy for a horse in the Champion Chase at 50/1 when I wrote my Wednesday Review a couple of days ago. I see that others are looking along the same lines, and, with 66/1 now available in a place, the time looks right to take advantage. This does come with a health warning and is undoubtedly a bet fraught with risk. It is just as likely (if not more) to be down the drain before the start of the season than it is to be a winner. 66/1 shots without question marks don't exist and, all things considered, this one is worth a chance.

The 2m division is widely regarded as weak, but that could all change next season when potential superstar Sprinter Sacre steps into open company. He has already proven himself up to the task with facile wins in the Game Spirit and the Arkle, and is a warm order to follow up in the Champion Chase in 2013. However, odds of no bigger than 11/8 are hardly tempting at this stage, especially as so many things can go wrong and so quickly. The clear favourite aside, the division lacks strength in depth but an alternative that I like at this stage is Sanctuaire. He is the last name quoted with both Coral and Stan James, and can be backed at 66/1 with the latter. Of those above him in the market (the favourite aside), there are reasons to oppose them.

Finian's Rainbow - Reigning Champion but may step up in trip with yard preference for Sprinter Sacre. He'll be 10 next season too.

Sizing Europe - He will be 11 and whilst he can still go well, age might start catching up with him.

Peddlers Cross - He will be going back over hurdles according to trainer Donald McCain.

Flemenstar - He has shown his best form on soft ground and his future surely lies over further. He'll be 'Gold Cuppin' according to his infamous trainer Peter Casey.

Cue Card - No match for Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle and another who looks set to step up in trip.

Al Ferof - Same comments apply as for Cue Card with targets such as the King George looking more likely.

Somersby - A possible but appears tripless and tends to get outpaced down the hill at the minimum.

Big Zeb - Too old this year and will definitely be too old next year. Also unlikely to travel.

Wishfull Thinking - Form has deteriorated since a brilliant novice season. He might get back on track but has questions.

Menorah - Miles behind in the Arkle and needs to improve considerably.

Kauto Stone - Another possible but probably lacks a gear to win such a race, but may have place prospects. Possible that his future is over further as well.

Sanctuaire himself is hardly devoid of question marks but at 66/1 that is factored into his price. He was a high class hurdler (rated 150), he has Festival form (bolted up in the Fred Winter, albeit off a lenient mark), and, most importantly, looks to have taken to fences very well indeed. On his fencing debut at Taunton he went off like a scalded cat in front, never saw another rival, and stormed home in a fair time. It was the same story at Sandown next time where he had the 130 rated Gracchus a legless 41 lengths behind, with the 120 rated Prince Buster another 16 lengths in arrears. It is difficult and dangerous to read to much into the bare form but it would be impossible to argue with the manner of vicotry especially as, on both occasions, he has impressed greatly with his exuberant jumping. He is a good looking animal, very classy and very speedy. His downfall is his temperament which has posed Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls a number of headaches through his career. He has been very strong (and still is), has virtually refused to race, and so on. However, he has looked a happier horse since going chasing and it could be that fences are the making of him. 

He is due to contest the Maghull Novices' Chase at Aintree next month where he will likely face Sprinter Sacre. If he were to do the unthinkable and beat that one then his price would collapse. If that one didn't turn up and he won in his absence then his price would collapse. If that one did turn up and he ran him close then his price would collapse. You get the picture.

He isn't there yet but he just could be better than anything else that Sprinter Sacre will have to face next season. He might flop in the Maghull but he might line up at Cheltenham in March 2013 as the 5/1 second favourite as well. It is a risky proposition but one I am prepared to take a chance on at the price.

0.5pts EW Sanctuaire at 66/1 with Stan James