An absolutely terrific card to start the 3 day Grand National meeting at Aintree featuring 4 Grade 1 races and a whole host of top names. It just goes to show that Aintree is about so much more than the Grand National now. Of particular interest is the ongoing Trainers' Championship battle between Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson. Both send powerful teams to the meeting in search of the knock-out blow. Each has their trump cards but numerous other contenders who could prove decisive.
2.00 BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle (3m) Grade 1
Big Buck's is an absolute certainty to stretch his unbeaten sequence to a record breaking seventeen. There is nothing standing in his way that can prevent him adding a 4th Liverpool Hurdle to his burgeoning collection of Grade 1 prizes. He was available at 1/4 initially but has now been trimmed to 2/9. That still represents excellent value. In percentage terms that puts his chance of winning at just over 80%. Does anybody think that Big Buck's would lose twice if the race was run ten times? I doubt it. A 20% return for watching Big Buck's hack up doesn't seem to bad either.
However, despite saying that I would not back against him again after Cheltenham, I feel compelled to do just that with a dead eight lining up. That ensures an overbroke place market meaning there is excellent EW value to be had. Smad Place is the obvious (and safest) contender after his fine 3rd in the World Hurdle but he was never really put into the race proper and it is possible (though not definite) he was flattered by that result. He is also only 5 and although the softer ground should be in his favour it might be that his Cheltenham exertions take their toll.
A case could be made for Tidal Bay but he is unreliable and I would rather side with the progressive Poungach who is a horse I have a lot of time for. I saw him in the paddock when he won at Sandown in December and he is a stunning individual. He will make a lovely chaser next season but before then he looks to have every chance of picking up some place money behind his illustrious stablemate. He hasn't been seen since chasing home Oscar Whisky in vain on New Year's Day. This is a horse for the future so I am sure Nicholls wouldn't risk him unnecessarily and the step up to 3m and easier ground seem sure to suit. He has little to find on the figures with all except Big Buck's and he is one still going in the right direction. At 18/1 he is worth an EW bet.
1pt EW Poungach at 18/1 with Stan James
Or just lump on Big Buck's at 2/9 . . . .
2.30 Matalan Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle (2m) Grade 1
The Triumph winner Countrywide Flame heads the field here after storming up the hill for a convincing success last month, and the 3rd Grumeti and 4th Dodging Bullets, as well as last flight faller Pearl Swan, re-oppose. Countrywide Flame appreciated every yard of the trip and the return to a sharper track might not be ideal. However, he is the Triumph winner and if he were trained by Nicholls or Henderson you could be quite sure that he'd be shorter than the 5/1 available.
Grumeti jumped the last in front but made a mistake and weakened up the hill. It could be that this speedier track will suit better but at 7/2 he looks short enough considering I don't think he is any certainty to reverse the form with Countrywide Flame (5/1) or confirm the form with Dodging Bullets (5/1). Dodging Bullets travelled like the best horse in the race at Cheltenham before getting run out of it close home. He has yet to break his maiden but comes here with a strong chance. I just get the feeling that he is a horse for novice hurdles next season. Ruby Walsh prefers Pearl Swan who was staying on powerfully in the Triumph when tipping up at the last. He looked to lack a yard of pace throughout and this slower ground might allow him to hold his position better but the sharper track would not look ideal. Sadler's Risk was well touted before the Adonis, but flopped there and in the Triumph itself, and now has questions to answer.
However, there is a horse who comes here fresh that is of interest. Hinterland showed very smart form early in the season but things haven't fallen his way since. He missed Cheltenham with Nicholls not entirely happy with him. That means he comes here fresh and it must be an indication that he is back on track. The slower ground shouldn't be a problem and he has the benefit of the excellent Noel Fehily in the saddle. At 11/1 he looks the EW bet.
1pt EW Hinterland at 11/1 with Paddy Power
3.05 Betfred Bowl Chase (3m1f) Grade 1
A superb renewal of this Grade 1 event with some horses coming from the Gold Cup, the Ryanair and those saved for the meeting. Riverside Theatre heads the market and it is easy to see why. Before his return in the Ascot Chase I had decided to oppose him in the Ryanair on the basis that he tended to look a little outpaced before finishing strongly. It is possible that is what happened in the Ryanair where he never looked the winner at any stage but the finish line. I am sure that the return to 3m will suit and that connections will head down the King George/Gold Cup route next season. With that in mind I have had a small investment at 75/1 for the double. He would be my idea of the King George winner at this stage and that would put him right in the mix for the Gold Cup. Therefore, I am hoping for a big performance here to confirm that idea.
The concern would be the hard race at Cheltenham but his main market rivals Burton Port and Medermit also endured tough races at the Festival. Burton Port is passed over by Barry Geraghty and Medermit has finished behind Riverside Theatre the last twice. He promises to appreciate the extra distance but I think his conqueror will too.
I am happy to leave Hunt Ball unbacked. He has to find another level to figure which is not out of the question at all but at the price he can be left alone. Furthermore, I would be delighted were he to win regardless of where my money has gone.
Of those at bigger prices, What A Friend looks the most interesting. He won this race a couple of years ago when fresh and again arrives here fresher than most this year after departing at the 2nd in the Gold Cup. At around the 10/1 mark he makes far more appeal than the likes of Nacarat at similar prices.
2pts Win Riverside Theatre at 7/2 with Ladbrokes
0.5pts EW What A Friend at 10/1 with Ladbrokes
3.40 John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase (2m5f)
It is hard to know what to make of some of the Point form on offer but one horse is a clear stand out and that is My Way De Solzen. He was top class for Alan King, winning the World Hurdle and the Arkle before losing his way. He has been carefully nurtured back by Gabe Mahon and is pitched into this contest after a confidence boosting success in the Pointing field. He was a super jumper as a Novice which means the fences should hold no fears. He had the pace to win an Arkle and the stamina for a World Hurdle which suggests that this intermediate trip will be ideal. Provided that he retains even some of his old ability it is easy to see him jumping his rivals silly at the head of affairs.
1pt EW My Way De Solzen at 7/1 with Paddy Power paying 4 places
4.15 Matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap Chase (2m) Grade 3
Tanks For That ran a cracker at Cheltenham when finding only Bellvano too good but does tend to show his best when fresh. Both Oiseau De Nuit and Kumbeshwar are solid but look in the handicapper's grip. Edgardo Sol is progressive but has another weights rise to defy. Silk Drum won this race last year when 9lbs wrong but races of a 5lbs lower mark this year and showed something of a return to form last time. Free World was still travelling OK when coming down at the top of the hill in the Grand Annual. The favourite for that race was Kid Cassidy but he never got into contention and was given an easy time once beaten. It is likely that a return to a flatter track will see him to better effect and he still looks on a fair mark given that he easily accounted for Kumbeshwar at Doncaster the time before last who is rated the same. At 7/1 he is worth another chance.
1pt EW Kid Cassidy at 15/2 with Bet Victor
4.50 Betfred Manifesto Novices' Chase (2m4f) Grade 1
The Nicholls trained Al Ferof is a warm order to make up for his Arkle disappointment. He was going well enough before clouting 3 out and losing all chance in the process. He looks for all the world like a step up to this 2m4f trip will suit and is a worthy favourite but the easier ground might be a slight concern with Nicholls always maintaining that he's better on good. Pepite Rose was super impressive when winning the Mares' Novices' Chase Final at Newbury on her last start but this is another big step up. She has made significant progress in a short time and might be capable of yet more. Menorah ran a respectable race without setting the world alight in the Arkle and will need to improve. Alasi is the outsider and has plenty on her plate. One who didn't run a respectable race at Cheltenham was Cristal Bonus. He was never travelling a yard, however, a valid reason (abscess on his wither) was found for that exceptionally poor performance and at 7/1 he looks a big price. He will like the trip and looks sure to appreciate the softer underfoot conditions more than his stablemate. One advantage of both running relatively poorly at Cheltenham is that neither had hard races.
1pt Win Al Ferof at 6/5 with Coral
1pt Win Cristal Bonus at 7/1 with Skybet
5.25 Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle (3m) Grade 3
Gullinbursti is going the right way and looks the most likely winner as he bids to make amends for his close defeat at Newbury last time. He has conditions to suit and should go well. However, he is priced up accordingly and one that makes more appeal is Timesawastin for Evan Williams. He is a quirky sort who has tended to hang left, jump poorly and take a grip. Not ideal material for a bet then you would think. However, he could not have jumped any worse at Haydock last time and was still able to win. He looks like he will handle a step up to 3m. The big attraction is a price of 20/1 which looks too big for a progressive horse with plenty of room for improvement. Whether he will improve or not is anyone's guess but it is worth taking the chance at the price.
1pt EW Timesawastin at 20/1 with Bet365 paying 5 places
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