Solving A Problem Like Sanctuaire

Sprinter Sacre has looked nothing short of exceptional this season with 5 wins from 5 starts and has barely been off the bridle doing so. He is rightly rated as one of the best (if not the best) novice chaser for a very long time. From the impression he has created it is very hard to argue with that. I, therefore, find the very suggestion that another novice could possibly be rated higher tricky to accept but that is the dilemma that Sanctuaire's scintillating win on Saturday poses.


For all his apparent brilliance, Sprinter Sacre's reputation relies to a large extent on the impression he has created and the manner in which he has beaten his rivals rather than who those rivals were. Sanctuaire had beaten nothing in his first two starts but had done it in breathtaking fashion. I can honestly say that his three starts this season would rank very highly in my list of favourite races for the campaign. However, in the Celebration he went from being an exciting novice chaser to a potential champion and in no uncertain terms.

I have backed him at 66/1 EW for the Champion Chase and I am the first to admit that it was a speculative wager that was far more likely to be written off before the end of the season than it was to have any realistic chance of being a winner. My main reason was that the other challengers looked so weak and so few and far between that a speculative bet on a 66/1 shot who just might make up into a contender was worth a stab.

I backed him in the Celebration as well at 11/2 but was concerned by the ground and the absence of Ruby from the saddle who, until Saturday, was the only person to have won on him. I was hopeful of a return but not in my wildest dreams did expect him to pull out a performance of that quality. His jumping was absolutely superb, he travelled strongly without pulling as he has done in the past, and he never stopped in front and galloped right to the line. The thing which impressed me most was the way that the others just could not make significant inroads into his lead. Whether they cut him too much slack I do not know. However, I watched the replay and Richard Johnson (and others) are niggling along down the back straight long before the railway fences suggesting they were fully aware of the situation. When their urgings became more serious they still failed to close him down at anything other than a steady rate. They had got his lead down to about 15 lengths at the last but when Daryl Jacob asked him to put the race to bed after the last he drew away from them again by a couple of lengths. This was what really struck me as being quite remarkable: to jump, travel and finish as well as he did on ground as bad as that was deeply impressive.

I will admit to having a soft spot for the horse. Even over hurdles he has always been one that I have kept a close eye on. For some reason I seem to be drawn to flawed brilliance. I have always thought he had the talent but his temperament was that (significant) flaw in his make-up. It is pleasing that fences (and/or front-running tactics) have (touch wood) put those problems to bed. He had looked sulky over hurdles but has appeared to relish every yard of his three starts over fences. 

It is also important to establish some perspective here as well. He did not make his chasing debut until 31st January this year. In those two starts he had beaten only 7 rivals none of whom were rated higher than 130. On just his third start, three months after his chasing debut, he tackles the Celebration. Of the 7 opponents, only Dan Breen (148) was rated lower than 153, and Somersby, Wishfull Thinking and French Opera were all rated 160+. It was a very good solid field but with nothing that was tip-top class. I hoped Sanctuaire might be which was why I was prepared to give him a chance. He fairly destroyed them from the front.

He was impressive but that is of little benefit if the value of the form is not known. Sanctuaire's Celebration performance is hard to rate because there were no horses anywhere near him for most of the race. It is difficult but not impossible. If we crudely assume 1lb per length (roughly correct and good enough for this purpose) then his rating would come out as follows:

Somersby (166) beaten 17 lengths conceding 4lbs - 179

Dan Breen (148) beaten 19 (to the nearest length) lengths - 167

French Opera (162) beaten 23 lengths - 185

Wishfull Thinking (164) beaten 28 lengths - 192

West With The Wind (154) beaten 31 lengths - 185

Woolcombe Folly (155) beaten 36 lengths - 191

Ignored Cornas (203 for anybody interested!)

A literal interpretation of the form means that he can only be rated lower than Sprinter Sacre by assuming that Dan Breen has run to his mark of 148 and that everything else has run well below form. 

This is the view taken by the BHA Handicappers who have allotted him a revised mark of 167 by using the hellishly inconsistent Dan Breen as their yardstick. That might be the case but it does seem a little convenient in that it drops him nicely 2lbs below Sprinter Sacre. That is understandable because I can imagine there would be a few astonished faces if Sprinter Sacre were to be superceded at the top of the novice chase division. However, I am  far from comfortable with the use of Dan Breen as the marker in this race. In fact, I would go so far as to say that it is laughable. If Dan Breen has run to his mark of 148 then that would have the rest of the field running to:

Somersby (166) - Beat him 2 lengths giving 4lbs which puts him on 154 - 12lbs below form.

French Opera (162) - Beaten 4 lengths puts him on 144 - 18lbs below form.

Wishfull Thinking (164) - Beaten 9 lengths puts him on 139 - 25lbs below form.
West With The Wind (154) - Beaten 12 lengths puts him on 136 - 18lbs below form.

Woolcombe Folly (155) - Beaten 17 lengths puts him on 131 - 24lbs below form.

Cornas ignored.

I think both Somersby and French Opera could be regarded as 'solid yardsticks' but the last named was beaten at an early stage in the Celebration. The same cannot be said of many of the others, Dan Breen included. If Somersby and French Opera have run to form then they should finish level with Somersby conceding 4lbs. Somersby beat French Opera by nearly 6 lengths. For Somersby to have run below form, French Opera would have had to be a lot below his mark which is not impossible.

If Somersby has run to his mark of 166 (previous best performances have been at Ascot, another stiff right handed track) then French Opera has run to 156. Both of those figures put Sanctuaire onto 179. Dan Breen is the anomaly in the race and the above interpretation of Somersby and French Opera's performances would put him up 12lbs to 160. Is Dan Breen a 160 horse? I do not think so on what we have seen so far. He is rated 148 and I would find a mark of 155 believable but no more than that. Dropping them all 5lbs to put Dan Breen on 155 puts Somersby to 161 (I have long held the view that he is a consistent 160ish horse anyway) and French Opera to 151 (well below form, but he was beaten a long way out). Those ratings put Sanctuaire onto 174. That compares to the Arkle winner Sprinter Sacre on 169  and the Champion Chase winner Finian's Rainbow on 173. That rating is arrived at using a fairly pessimistic view of the form (which I am not totally convinced is justified). That gives him 5lbs in hand over Sprinter Sacre and you need to keep chipping away to bring Sanctuaire back down below him, unless, of course, you feel confident that the use of Dan Breen as a marker is justifiable. 

I find 174 as hard to believe as you do, not least because of my apparent shrewdness in taking the 66/1 for the Champion Chase a month or so ago. The above is only my view and my interpretation of what appears the most likely scenario. I could be wrong, I could be very wrong but there is a small chance I could be right. The last time I did this exercise was with the Arkle and I consistently found that Cue Card was 2nd best in the race. I could not have him at all for numerous reasons but, needless to say, he finished a clear 2nd. 

I am sure some will argue that he was given too much slack on the front end but his jumping was so quick and slick that I am not sure the rest had much choice. I am positive that the other jockeys were aware of what was going on early in the race in that Richard Johnson (and others) are noticeably niggling their mounts along after the water jump (if not earlier). They knew what was going on and could do nothing about it. Going down the back it is noticeable how much faster Sanctuaire is at his fences compared to anything else.

There you have it, Sprinter Sacre, unbeaten in 5, the best winner of the Arkle and the best novice chaser for decades, and then up pops the mercurial Sanctuaire from out of the blue to beat him to the title of champion novice (in my opinion at least). I should qualify that by saying that I have not looked at Sprinter Sacre and have assumed that his official rating is correct. It might easily be the case that his rating does not reflect his achievements and it is almost certainly the case that his rating does not reflect his ability.

Now the prices: Sprinter Sacre is 5/4 and Sanctuaire is 12/1 for the 2013 Champion Chase. Which do I prefer? I think the 5/4 is horrific compared to the 12/1 you can get on Sanctuaire. I am certain that Sprinter Sacre has more in the locker but I think Sanctuaire does too. I also think it can at least be argued that his Celebration form is stronger than anything Sprinter Sacre has achieved. Both are unbeaten over fences, both have been immensely impressive in all their starts and I for one cannot wait for the Tingle Creek 2013 when we will find out where they stand. I was finding it very hard to resist taking a bit of the 12/1 and having done this analysis it is even harder. The one thing stopping me is that I already have him at 66/1. If I did not have that tasty ticket I would certainly be 'investing' a little. His performance has come from so far out of the blue that it could be being underrated. I think he is at least a serious challenger to Sprinter Sacre and I do not think it is anything like the formality that the odds suggest that the Henderson superstar will come out on top when they do meet. What is a certainty is that clash will be something to savour.