The Jackpot is one of those impossible bets. One that it is impossible to imagine winning. Generally the 'small' punters such as you and i just fill up the pot for the 'big' boys to take home. And when i say 'big' i mean very big. Messrs Findlay, Veitch and Nevison (and others) are sure to each put thousands into the pot tomorrow. They have the capital to put up the big money stakes to take the big money returns. For you and i, we must content ourself with the hope of improbable good fortune. Can our £2 line possibly beat the thousands held by the professional punters? It's very unlikely indeed, but it most certainly can be done. When there is a Jackpot rollover the big and the small punters swarm like vultures. They all want a piece of the action. The big boys want to make a living and the small players are hoping for that win which changes their life forever.
At Newmarket tomorrow it is estimated that there will be a record £2.5m Jackpot pool, courtesy of the biggest ever rollover of £1,262,152 from today's card. The record payout currently stands at £1,445,671 which was scooped by one £2 punter at Exeter in March. It just goes to show that it can be done. Often with these pool bets it plays to go against the grain. If all the favourites win then there will be thousands of winning tickets and with such a large pool they will be worth a bit too. But if you want the big payday you need the ticket that nobody else has. And that means you need to think like nobody else. The intelligent and logical choices gain you little because there are lots of intelligent and logical people putting money into the pool. There will be a few crazy ones too and if you want the money it's likely that you will need to be one of them. If there is only one winning ticket you can bet it will be one of two things: An illogical single ticket holder with no idea about racing or one of the big players. They can afford to have all the bases covered; intelligent and logical, and crazy. As far as i am concerned, i would happily settle for a slice of the action. With that in mind my selections below hopefully have decent chances of taking the prize, even if i have to share it with a few similarly brilliant tipsters. The Jackpot is a bet that dreams are made of so we may as well dream the dream.
1.15 - Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (2yo Fillies) (7f)
Selection: Albaspina
The key race here is the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood. Regal Realm was the winner but Rakasa, Questing and Nayarra filled the next three places, split by two heads. Ultimately Regal Realm was a comfortable winner even if the margin was small. She met trouble in running but was still able to get up on the line. She has since finished 4th in the May Hill and i think it may pay to take a chance on one of the lesser exposed types. One that fits that category is Albaspina. Sir Mark Prescott knows what he's doing in these races and i think she is worth a punt. She won in good style at Carlisle on her debut despite showing greeness. If she improves for the run then she may well be capable of troubling the principles.
Edit: Albaspina is a NR. With that in mind i am forced to turn to the other 'could be anything' type Alsindi. She won well on her debut on soft ground at Yarmouth and comes from a family that appreciate a sounder surface. Hopefully there will be a good deal of improvement to come.
1.50 - Rosemary Stakes (Listed) (3yo+ Fillies) (1m)
Selection: Seta
I will take a chance on Seta here. She has always been held in high regard by Cumani and Fallon but has never quite lived up to their expectations. However, this is only a Listed race and she has proven herself up to this level in the past. She will get the firm ground she needs and after some trip experimentation she is back to the mile, which seems to be her optimum. An obvious choice but i hope she can do the business.
2.25 - Joel Stakes (Group 2) (3yo+) (1m)
Selection: Premio Loco
Poet's Voice has shown his best form on soft ground so conditions will not be in his favour. He also has to put a very disappointing showing at Goodwood behind him. I think Ransom Note would appreciate an extra furlong. Tazahum looks smart but is the likely favourite and for that reason i will side with Premio Loco. He regained the winning thread at Doncaster over 7f. The step up to a mile should not be a problem and he will get the firm surface he likes here.
3.00 - Fillie's Mile (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (1m)
Selection: Albamara
This race centres on the May Hill at Doncaster where Lyric Of Light and Fallen For You fought out the finish, with Samitar back in 3rd. That form is leagues above anything else in the race and the front two are difficult to ignore. Firdaws seems overrated on what she has done thus far. Albamara looks interesting. Sir Mark Prescott pitches her in at the deep end here. She was very unlucky on her debut but made amends in impressive style at Epsom next time. I think the winner most likely comes from the May Hill first and second, and i think the form will be reversed. But, i need to think differently to make any money so i will take a chance on the unexposed filly Albamara. It is looking like a good day for the Prescott team.
3.35 - Maiden (2yo) (7f)
Selection: Cayuga
Not original but i am told by a reasonably reliable sources that this is expected to win first time up. He is fit and well and has shown promise on the gallops and comes from a family that traditionally do well on debut.
4.10 - Godolphin Stakes (Listed) (3yo+) (1m4f)
Selection: Dangerous Midge
A tricky heat with many either seemingly not good enough or out of form. Mike de Kock sends over Mahbooba and he may be one to find the necessary improvement. But if Dangerous Midge returns to something like his 122 rated best then the rest will be running for second place. His form has tailed off lately and he was very disappointing at Doncaster after a mid-season break. He looks to have found a good opportunity to regain the winning thread.
Good luck to anyone who plays. You will need it.
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