A Champions Day Preview

A week of turmoil in the (British) racing world will culminate in a spectacular card at Ascot on Saturday; British Champions Day. This new development has not been without opposition but the end result must be applauded. There remain small things which would benefit from a little tinkering, but the overall picture is exactly what was required. A day of top class racing will genuinely crown the Champions in their category, with perhaps the sprint king, Dream Ahead, the one notable absentee. It is hoped that the recent, and ongoing, furore over the new whip rules does not detract from an excellent card. I will never understand why it was felt necessary to introduce such regulation in the week leading up to Britain's premier flat card. Surely it would have been more sensible to wait until the major racing had passed to allow the new rules a trial run on the all weather. Instead we have a days racing overshadowed by the whip and the absence of the supreme stylist Richard Hughes, who has handed in his licence in protest at the new rules. It is hoped that a quick and successful solution is found.

1.50 - Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup, Group 3 (2m)

The premier staying race in the British calendar is the 2m4f Ascot Gold Cup. The first and second from that race, Fame And Glory and Opinion Poll re-oppose here. Fame And Glory is the undoubted class horse in the race. He was rated 129 in a brilliant 2009 campaign when he consistently found the super Sea The Stars just too strong despite starting favourite for the Derby. He comes into this race on the back of two sub-par performances and it is difficult to recommend backing him with any confidence, but he may easily make 11/4 look like excellent value. If he returns to form he wins, the question mark is whether he is able to recapture his best. Opinion Poll looks the most likely to take advantage but has had a long season and may be worth opposing, especially at 9/4. Times Up is the progressive horse and comes here on the back of an impressive Listed success at Newmarket. He is clearly on the upgrade but will need to find a little more to take this. That is not beyond the realms of possibility and he rates the best bet at 7/2. 

2.25 - Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes, Group 2 (6f)

A strong field of 16 assemble for this 6f dash. The James Fanshawe pair of Deacon Blues and Society Rock both feature prominently in the betting. They were both triumphant at the Royal Meeting in June over course and distance, Society Rock taking the Group 1 Golden Jubilee and Deacon Blues winning the Wokingham Handicap. But it is Deacon Blues who heads the market here on the back of 3 subsequent Group 3 wins, all achieved in convincing fashion. Meanwhile, Society Rock has found Moonlight Cloud too strong when a clear second in the Group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest, and finished only 6th behind Dream Ahead in the Sprint Cup when starting slowly. Deacon Blues is the horse on the upgrade but Society Rock is a renowned Ascot specialist meaning it is easy to make a case for both of them. However, they all might have to play second fiddle to the Freddie Head French filly Moonlight Cloud. She was targeted at a Classic campaign, including when starting favourite for the 1000 Guineas. She failed to see out the 8f trip and has been second, behind 3 time Sun Chariot winner Saphresa, and won twice since dropped to 7f since. The last of thos victories came in the Group 1 Prix Maurice De Gheest when she was an emphatic winner. But that victory was achieved on soft ground, and the combination of faster ground and the drop to 6f, the first of her career, is a cause for concern. At bigger prices it is possible to make a case for Dafeef. He beat Deacon Blues in a handicap last season and has always been a horse held in high regard by the Haggas team. He has not progressed to the same level as Deacon Blues but his ability is not in doubt. If he puts it all together he may just ruffle a few feathers at big odds. I'd be surprised if the winner didn't come from those four, but Group sprint races and shock results seem to go hand in hand. If you asked me to nail my colours to one horse i would probably side with Deacon Blues, but the faster ground is a negative. 

3.00 - Qipco British Champions Fillies' And Mares' Stakes, Group 2 (1m4f)

An open heat which is somewhat weakened by the defection of top class fillies Midday and Snow Fairy to the Group 1 Champion Stakes on the same card. Either would have been a warm favourite here but their absence creates a far more interesting race, with a few holding strong claims. At the head of the market is the Roger Varian trained Ferdoos. Her only start this season saw her run down Vita Nova in a Listed race in May. Her long absence must be a cause for concern, and, with only 4 runs under her belt, a lack of experience may be a concern. Vita Nova has since gone one to advertise the form well with seconds in both the Lancashire Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks. In the former race she was an incredibly unlucky loser because her saddle slipped meaning it was impossibly for Tom Queally to ride her out. She ran well in defeat behind Blue Bunting in the Yorkshire version showing further improvement. I think she has a great chance of breaking her Group race duck provided injury concerns have not left their mark. Dancing Rain won the English and German Oaks and brings forward strong credentials. She got an easy lead in the Epsom version but to say she was flattered may be unfair. This has been the target since and she is not easily dismissed. Crystal Capella has won this race twice in its former guise (the Pride Stakes) but this looks a tougher renewal. Gertrude Bell was the beneficiary of Vita Nova's tack malfunction at Haydock and it is hard to see her confirming the form. Banimpire is an admirably tough and consistent filly but may just find a few too good in this class after a long hard season. Meeznah has been running over further and may just lack a change of gear over this trip at this level. I think i am happy to ignore Ferdoos because i think she may be a little overrated on the back of her defeat of Vita Nova because that filly has since stepped up considerably. There is no doubt that she has the potential to improve once more but she will need to. Dancing Rain is feared but i think that Vita Nova can take this for Sir Henry Cecil and Tom Queally, to give them both a nice confidence boost before Frankel. An EW saver on Dancing Rain is advised.

3.35 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (British Champions Mile), Group 1 (1m) 

Frankel. Need i say more? Devastating in the 2000 Guineas and in the Sussex Stakes last time. Sir Henry believes that he has improved since then which will make him unbeatable here. The one minor concern is that he was disappointing in victory in the St James' Palace Stakes at the course. That was on the round mile and this is on the straight course, and even so the narrow margin was more down to the 'interesting' race tactics than any dislike of the course. To those who think otherwise might i refer you to his demolition job in the Royal Lodge. Frankel dominance in the market should not detract from the opposition, who themselves are top class, but unfortunately not in the same league as the mighty Frankel. Best of them looks to be Immortal Verse and Exclebration. They have both won Group 1s in France this year, with Immortal Verse taking the Marois and Excelebration victorious in the Moulin. All of Immortal Verse's form has come on soft ground and she will encounter a much faster surface here. For that reason preference is for Excelebration to chase the unbeaten Frankel home. It is difficult to see anything else getting involved. At 6/1 Excelbration rates a decent EW bet. He looks sure to place and, in the horrific eventuality that Frankel disappoints, looks most likely to take advantage. It will be an enormous blow for racing if Frankel is unable to win on this landmark day. I hope he wins and i hope he wins well.

4.10 - Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance), Group 1 (1m2f)

A race that has far exceeded my own expectations. The quality and depth of the field is remarkable and this must surely rate as the best 10f race run in Europe for many a year. The one challenger for the title of the 10f championship is the Breeders Cup Classic, but this year, the prospective field for that race looks far inferior to what we have on offer tomorrow. So You Think, the monster Australian import, heads the market. He has proven himself the best 10f horse around this year and was arguably unlucky not to at least get closer to winning the Arc. In the end he finished 4th from an unfavourable draw with his run coming too late. In front of him in 3rd that day was Snow Fairy. She has shown she is a top class filly capable of beating the colts but she is up against a very strong selection here. Back to 10f she might just find one or two with a few more gears than her. It is interesting that she comes here rather than heading on her travels once more. Second in the market is King George winner Nathaniel. I fancied him strongly for the Arc but am concerned that this drop to 10f will not play to his strengths. Trainer John Gosden stated that the King George turned into a 10f race but crucially he was only facing 12f horses. Here he faces the cream of the crop over 10f, and whilst an admirable run seems assured, there may be a few with a change of gear he cannot match. Further negatives are the draw and the ground. Next up is Midday who has won 2 from 5 this season but has claims to have been unlucky in all three defeats. She was sent to the front when travelling all over St Nicholas Abbey in the Coronation and was collared in the final 100yds, she then ran second to Misty For Me in an inexplicable Pretty Polly Stakes, and then found just stablemate Twice Over too strong in the Juddmonte International when again travelling powerfully into the lead sooner than ideal. This is a stronger race but i think it may play to her strengths. She can quicken and i think she rates the main danger to the favourite under ideal conditions. Twice Over was in front of her last time and has won this very race the past two years in its previous guise at Newmarket. But at Ascot, on firmer ground i fancy him to fail to complete his hatrick. He has yet to win at the course and has developed a preference for slight ease underfoot (Cecil suggested that he has had trouble with his feet) neither of which will suit him here. I fancy Midday to prove best of the Cecil duo on this occasion. The French challenger is Cirrus Des Aigles. He has proven a model of consistency during an excellent campaign. He is a gelding so was unable to take his chance in the Arc. He has yet to win a Group 1 and seems to just get caught out when meeting the very best. He is also said to prefer cut with the best of his form on softer ground so for that reason alone he is opposed.The unbeaten Dubai Prince falls into the 'could be anything' category. He is still unbeaten and rated a leading fancy for both the 2000 Guineas and Derby before injury. His return was decent, and found favour with pilot Kieren Fallon. Dettori takes over here and he could well be one to shake up the main players. He still has a fair bit to find but he might just be the type to be able to do it. My concern is his lack of experience in a race full of big and battle hardened individuals. He is a horse for the future but i think this will be a step too far too soon. Another improver is Green Destiny who won in really taking style at the Guineas meeting. I was put off backing him again on course because he looked like he would improve for the run but he still won in impresive fashion. He has since taken the John Smiths Cup and two Group 3s. But he has run disappointingly twice but i am prepared to forgive him both efforts. He is progressing quickly and he could well be a bigger threat than his odds imply. I fancy So You Think to take this with Midday rated the main danger and a good EW bet. Green Destiny is the one at a price who might just spoil the party but i think his lazy style of racing might just count against him in this calibre of race.

4.45 - Qipco Future Stars Apprentice Handicap (7f)

I won't be having a look at this one. Why could we not have another top class race here instead? Or at the very list one of the big money heritage handicaps to get stuck into? I appreciate that it is an excellent opportunity for the apprentice riders but i am unconvinced that this is the right time or the right place.