From The Flat To The Jumps

From The Flat

Tomorrow afternoon sees the last Group 1 of the 2011 British flat racing season with the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster. Camelot, from the stable of Aidan O'Brien, heads the market. He has been well supported since the ante-post markets opened and he is now a solid 11/8 favourite. Ladbrokes, often quoted as having the inside track on the Ballydoyle yard, go even shorter, a shade of odds-on at 10/11. He has been backed like defeat is out of the question but his form hardly justifies such a short price. A ready Maiden winner the form of the race has hardly worked out well with nothing in behind yet managing to win since. Nevertheless he must be respected because this is a race that O'Brien targets with his best 2yos. His previous winners include Derby winner High Chaparral and Champion Juvenile St Nicholas Abbey. However, his price is prohibitive, and would suggest that there are value alternatives elsewhere. He will need to win and win well to justify favouritism and quotes of 10/1 for the Derby next year.

The obvious alternative is the John Gosden trained Fencing. This colt has also been well supported in the market after he bypassed the Dewhurst after the ground was deemed too fast. He made a pleasing introduction in a 7f Maiden at Newmarket before taking a Listed race at Newbury in taking style. This is another step up in class but he is clearly smart and may well cope with this higher grade.

Encke was second first time up behind Perennial, who has since finished 2nd in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Headquarters. He left that form well behind when an easy winner of a mile Maiden and he looks one worthy of this step up in grade. He has a little to find on the book but is open to improvement. 

Zip Top won on his debut but has since been beaten twice in Group 3 company. Jim Bolger is renowned for his shrewd placing of 2yos, as shown when Parish Hall won the Dewhurst at 25/1 earlier this year. He needs to improve but he rates no back number though others are preferred.

Learn is the second Ballydoyle representative. He won his Maiden at the 3rd time of asking but strong preference appears to be for his highly regarded stablemate.

Talwar arguably brings the best form to the race, when running out a ready winner of the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown in August. He has disappointed twice since then but he could be one to shake up the principles if he returns to form. You just get the feeling that a few might now be improving past him.

It is not a race that i have a particularly strong opinion about. My one hope is that a high calibre colt emerges. The colt Classics for 2012 look wide open at this stage and it would be great to see a high class contender emerge. Any of Camelot, Fencing or Encke could fulfil that desire. However, the one that looks a very big price is Talwar. He officially has the best form in the race and, whilst there may be others with more potential for improvement, he might have been worth chucking a few quid at EW. As there are only 6 runners that slightly limits the value of the EW bet so it is probably best left alone.

To The Jumps

The Racing Post Trophy is the last Group 1 flat race of the season but tomorrow also sees the first National Hunt big names roll into action. They are headed by the clash of dual Champion Chaser Master Minded and dual Ryanair Chase winner Albertas Run, in receipt of 10lbs. The Old Roan might have only attracted 3 runners but it will be great to see these two warriors back in action. Master Minded is touted as a possible King George contender and i think he will need to take this if those ambitions are to be realised. However a watching brief is strongly advised because this is a race notorious for throwing up shock results. Even the great Kauto Star went down to Aintree favourite Monet's Garden in 2007. 

There is also a whole heap of potentially exciting animals on show in the Aintree supporting card and at Chepstow, which sees the return of Woolcombe Folly and Tataniano in the 4.50 as well as the Grade 2 Persian War Novices Hurdle and Grade 3 Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle. 

The flat season has been lit up by the fabulous Frankel with a very strong supporting cast. But there can be no doubt that it is brilliant to have the proper jumps season underway. As the build up to Cheltenham begins, we can but dream of those 4 days in March when the champions will be decided in the finest 4 days sport anywhere in the world.