The Hennessy Gold Cup is one of the most prestigious races of the season. It usually attracts a strong field of established chasers and improving second season types making a thoroughly competitive race. This year's renewal looks no different and is sure to be as fascinating as ever. 27 are currently engaged, but a good few are expected to come out when the declarations are made early next week. However, with these big runner handicaps it pays to have a good handle on the race early so that you are ready to take advantage of any opportunities that may arise. I advise that you do the same, but I will not be getting involved until the declarations are known. You might miss out on some of the value but at least you can be fairly sure that you will get a run for your money.
The going is currently good, good to soft in places. The forecast for the week is dry with the chance of a light shower on Tuesday but the Clerk of the Course is not expecting the going to change.
The Field:
Neptune Collonges (33/1) - My fancy last year but was brought down early on. He heads the weights, and is likely to remain in the field, with young Harry Derham set to take the mount. He is now 10 and this looks a stiff ask off a mark of 168. Could run a decent race because he will jump and stay. Will handle good but would prefer softer.
Diamond Harry (20/1) - Will almost certainly miss the race after running in the Betfair Chase.
Weird Al (16/1) - Will almost certainly miss the race after running in the Betfair Chase.
Wishfull Thinking (28/1) - Must be a doubtful runner with a drop back to 2m, rather than a step up to 3m2f, on the cards.
Joncol (14/1) - Considered a proper mud lark and has yet to encounter anything better than soft in 12 starts and 2 Points. His participation might well be in doubt with the current forecast. A decent animal in Ireland but has yet to race over here. He has a big task on his hands off of 161 and there must be a few better handicapped down the bottom. Ground is a major concern.
Time For Rupert (20/1) - Will almost certainly miss the race after running in the Betfair Chase.
Planet Of Sound (20/1) - Winner of a (weak) Grade 1 at Punchestown in 2010 and thought of as a potential Gold Cup horse. Only ran twice last season when well beaten in both the Betfair Chase and King George. Runs here of 158 and won the Haldon Gold Cup off of 152 in 2009. This is a different kettle of fish but he will like the ground and if he retains his ability then he has a chance. Hobbs will need to have him cherry ripe on his first run since January.
Quinz (33/1) - Progressive last year and took the Racing Post Chase in good style. Connections then tried him in the National to take advantage of a favourable handicap mark but he broke a blood vessel and was pulled up. Ran poorly on his reappearance when never getting going at all and was pulled up again. Still on a mark of 153 and he might find it tough unless he can find his best form, and probably improve again.
Sarando (16/1) - Went down by a 1/4 length at Aintree to Quito De la Roque. That rival has since done the form no harm winning Grade 1s at Punchestown and Down Royal. He is now rated 169. Sarando runs here off of 153 (149 plus a 4lb penalty) and on the bare form he would have a decent chance. Furthermore, his reappearance at Carlisle was impressive as he put a couple of decent sorts to the sword and won as he liked. Clearly handles decent ground and is an improving sort.
Aiteen Thirtythree (8/1) - The big talking horse in the race with Nicholls putting this forward as a target virtually before he had jumped a fence. His trainer has already backed him for the race at 33/1 last year and confidence still appears to be strong. Wide margin winner of two novice events at the course before disappointing in the RSA when reportedly unsuited by the undulating track. His reappearance behind Somersby was pleasing enough over an inadequate trip and he is sure to improve for that. Has run well on good but just get the feeling he would prefer a bit of cut. Has performed best when allowed to dominate from the front and I just wonder whether he will be able to do that here. The services of Ruby Walsh will be a big help to his chances.
Blazing Bailey (50/1) - A former high class hurdler who finally made his mark over fences last season with wins at Cheltenham and Ffos Las. Since then his form has tailed off a little when well beaten at the Festival and pulled up in the Scottish National. Possibly has enough on his plate running of 151.
Great Endeavour (8/1) - Impressive winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and is officially 6lbs well in here. Connections have expressed concern over his ability to stay the trip and he has yet to win over 3m. He has shown his best form at Cheltenham but does enjoy good ground.
Hey Big Spender (40/1) - Slowly coming back down the weights and won off this mark at Wetherby in February. That was far less competitive than this and others are preferred. Fell in the race last year when well beaten.
Beshabar (14/1) - A dour stayer who finished 2nd in the National Hunt Chase and then won the Scottish Grand National, both over 4m. He has stamina in abundance and likes good ground. Up 4lbs in the weights since his win at Ayr which doesn't look insurmountable. This has been his target for a while and he will certainly be galloping at the death. Might just require a more extreme test than this.
Wayward Prince (12/1) - Stayed on powerfully up the Cheltenham hill to go down by just a length in the RSA. Then ran poorly when over the top at Aintree behind Quito De La Roque and Sarando. Runs well on good ground and has stamina in abundance. A smart horse for whom a mark of 150 does not look insurmountable.
Carruthers (25/1) - A game front runner who appreciates cut. Unlikely he will be able to dominate in this race and the ground is unlikely to be in his favour either. Jumps and stays well but others might just have more pace. Is falling down the handicap and is 10lbs lower than when a 20 length 6th last year.
Michel Le Bon (10/1) - One of the most interesting runners in the race and the subject of strong antepost support. Rated 140 over hurdles and has just one chase start to his name back in 2009, when running away with the Grade 2 3m Novice Chase at this meeting to win by 60 lengths. Immediately rated 146 and he runs off that here. He has clearly had his problems and his fitness must be taken on trust but if anybody can get him right for the day then Nicholls is the man. Reportedly was slow to learn when first introduced to fences and his lack of experience in such a competitive race is a concern. Could be smart though.
Muirhead (40/1) - Easily won the Munster National back in October off 132 but raised to 146 here. He was a smart hurdler (rated 158 at his peak) so that hefty rise might be within his reach. Disappointed at Ascot last time but never really got involved and others might just have his measure.
The Giant Bolster (20/1) - Well fancied and tipped by Pricewise for the Paddy Power Gold Cup but got no further than the 1st fence. Has now failed to complete in 4 of his 6 chase starts, but has won on both other occasions. Will be race fit after a hurdles spin before Cheltenham and if his jumping holds he definitely has a chance. The slower pace might help in that regard and he didn't appear short on stamina when staying on best over 2m5f at Cheltenham last January.
Wymott (8/1) - Won his first three chase starts well enough without ever setting the world alight but was pulled up in the RSA last time. He was found to have a small fracture and that run should be ignored. Handily weighted here off of 144 and it would be disappointing if he were not able to better that in time. This has been his target and he must be respected.
Fair Along (50/1) - A game little horse who finished 2nd when attempting a hatrick of West Yorkshire Hurdles at Wetherby last month. Since well beaten in a handicap chase at Cheltenham and the hurly burly of this race might be too much for him.
Balthazar King (40/1) - Progressive last year but pulled up in the Bet365 Gold Cup. Returned with a win at Cheltenham but well beaten the last twice. Will need to improve to figure here. His best form has come in small fields when he has been allowed to dominate from the front. Unlikely to enjoy that luxury in this.
Tullamore Dew (50/1) - 3rd behind Divers and Quantitativeeasing in the Centenary Novices Handicap Chase at the Festival over 2m5f. Decent return over hurdles but fell in the Paddy Power when in rear. Yet to prove his stamina for this trip.
Billie Magern (33/1) - A few pounds wrong at the weights as things stand but ran 5th in the Paddy Power, shaping as if a return to 3m would be in his favour. Will need a career best but not beyond the realms of possibility. Handles quick ground well.
Qhilimar (40/1) - A winner at Newton Abbot and 2nd at Carlisle already this season but this is much tougher. Up to a career high mark of 137 and 5lbs wrong at the weights makes this a big ask.
Vino Griego (66/1) - A 2nd season Novice who was 55 lengths behind Grand Crus at Cheltenham earlier in the month. Yet to try anything further than 2m5f but to will need to bring about significant improvement for him to figure here from 9lbs out of the handicap.
Neptune Equester (66/1) - A thorough stayer who has been on the go all summer. Trip and ground will not be a problem, but the big question is whether he is good enough. Nearly a stone out of the handicap and will have to improve out of all recognition to figure.
Shortlist:
Whilst it may not be original I think it is worryingly easy to cross out quite a few in the field. The horses that I am left with are generally those nearer the head of the market. The one I would be keen to oppose is Great Endeavour. This was clearly not the plan for him and the trip must be a major concern. The Pipe stable completed the Paddy Power/Hennessy double back in 2004 with Celestial Halo but I do not think it will happen again this year.
So off the 27 currently engaged my 8 for the shortlist are as follows:
Planet Of Sound
Sarando
Aiteen Thirtythree
Beshabar
Wayward Prince
Michel Le Bon
The Giant Bolster
Wymott
They are all no bigger than 20/1 so hardly any shocks predicted. I would be surprised if anything from lower down the market could challenge. My major concern is that it all seems far to obvious. There are bigger priced horses who might run into a place but nothing that looks like it might be able to win to me. When an outsider wins I will be made to look very foolish indeed. Historically, the race has fallen to a well fancied horse and since the turn of the century the SPs have been; 6/1, 11/4, 25/1 (Big Buck's 5/1 might well have won but unseated at the last), 5/1, 10/1, 13/2, 9/4, 5/1, 16/1, 14/1, 7/1. Rarely does the race fall to an unfancied horse so concentrating on the top of the market appears a sensible policy.
No comments:
Post a Comment