Saturday, 12 November 2011

Greatwood Hurdle

Two excellent days action at Cheltenham already and a terrific card on Sunday to finish the feast of nicely.

The undoubted highlight is the 2m Greatwood Handicap Hurdle. This race often throws up a Champion Hurdle contender and this year looks no different with some decent types lurking near the top of the weights. 

Sanctuaire - The services of Ruby Walsh appear crucial as he is 0/5 without and 3/5 with the Irishman on top. And after a truly masterful ride on Join Together in the last today it is easy to see why. He is talented but something of an enigma. If he's on a going day he could run a nice race.

Topolski - Won the 2m Novice Hurdle at the Aintree Festival but lost his unbeaten record in fairly dismal style at Ascot first time up this year. I thought the form of the Aintree race was probably not the best and i think he is probably in above his level on 150. That said he was fancied to turn into a Champion contender by the stable so might bounce back.

Brampour - A decent juvenile last year and improved again to win at Ascot on his seasonal reappearance. Harry Derham keeps the ride and takes off 7lbs here. But he has a 10lb hike in the weights to deal with and whilst he is improving i fancy that might prove beyond him in a race such as this.

Nearby - Was in terrific form last summer but has failed to fire since. Tried over fences last year but returns to hurdles this season having failed to win over the bigger obstacles. Handicapper still has him and would prefer quicker ground.

Jack Cool - Makes the trip from Ireland and  comes here in good form having finished in the first two in three consecutive handicap hurdles. Then finished 3rd behind Steps To Freedom (who won on Friday) last time and that should put him spot on. Climbing the weights but progressing and has the services of Champion Jockey AP McCoy.

Moon Dice - Ultra progressive and took the competitive Galway Hurdle in good style, with Champion Hurdle fancy The Real Article back in 4th. Up a stone in the weights courtesy of that success but stable think he might make up into a Champion contender. 

Son Of Flicka - Has been running over much further, including when 9th of 17 over 3m on his seasonal debut. Ran a cracker to be beaten a 1/2 length in the Martin Pipe by the unbeaten Sir Des Champs. Would probably prefer further than the 2m he faces here.

Third Intention - A smart juvenile last year and was well fancied in the Ascot race won by Brampour. Ultimately finished a disappointing 6th beaten 18 lengths and he will need to improve considerably for the run to figure here.

Kumbeshwar - A terrific warrior last year, finishing 2nd at all three major Festivals. His consistency might make life tough for him but still entitled to be on the upgrade. 8th at Ascot earlier in the season and he will need an awful lot more to take this. Reported to take a few races to hit his stride so he should strip fitter for the run.

Via Galilei - Consistent horse who has been well placed in a few of the top handicaps. Beat Pateese in the Imperial Cup behind Alarazi and that form seems to be working out well. Good run at Ascot last time and comes from a stable that know how to win this.

The Betchworth Kid - Well fancied for a few of these competitive 2m hurdles last season but never found himself in the firing line. He was perpetually unlucky, or unsuited by conditions, but i think it might just be that he isn't good enough. Big ask and need to return to form.

Inspector Clouseau - From the stable of Willie Mullins and his runners must be respected. He has been in good form of late but seems to have suffered with the British handicapper allotting him 9lbs above his Irish rating, quite a bit more than the other Irish challengers. 

Viva Colonia - Has been progressive but a disappointing run last time to overcome. Also up in the weights now and it might just be that the handicapper has caught up with him.

Palawi - Another decent juvenile last year but found out when falling in the Triumph. Is better weighted than many of his contemparies here and a big show not out of the question after a decent enough performance last time. The form of that race has worked out exceptionally well but he needs to improve to take this.

Oldrik - Hasn't run over hurdles for over a year but dropped a few lbs to compensate. This is a tough assignment after such a long absence.Good return on the flat when 2nd in September.

A Media Luz - A very smart flat performer and a decent juvenile but there appears a lot more to come when she learns to settle. She travelled strongly at Ascot before fading to finish 3rd. She would hold every chance if she settles well. However, i'm not sure the hill will play to her strengths (not sure she stays 2m well) though a win wouldn't surprise me in the slightest because i am sure she is capable of far better than her mark.

Pateese - 3rd in the Imperial Cup before disappointing at Aintree but returned in style when hacking up at Sandown last weekend. This comes plenty soon enough but he is 10lbs well in carrying only a penalty here. Connections have an excellent record in the race.

Abergavenny - Unbeaten in 3 hurdles starts but this is a whole lot tougher.  A decent performer on the flat and this mark might be within his reach. Trainer had Bothy run 2nd in this 12 months ago with a similar profile. Respected but will need to improve.

Olofi - 5th in this race 12 months ago and races here from 2lbs lower. Had a warm up run in France and he might be one to go well. A career best required though.

Andhaar - Well beaten since stepping up to handicap company and looks to face a stiff task here.

Eightybarackstreet - Going in the right direction but will need to step up on anything he has sown to figure here. Ran in a good race last time but more needed.

Ultimate - Won his Novice Chase, beating subsequent winner Australia Day. That may have been a little fortunate but there was nothing lucky about a recent 7 length flat romp. He seems to be improving and it is interesting that Brian Ellison reverts to hurdles for this good prize.

Harry Tricker - Poor reappearance to put behind him and reported to have lost a little confidence since being tried over fences last season. Was 2nd to Khyber Kim in this race two years ago off of 1lb lower and if returning to that form would hold every chance.

Alazan - Been running well, including when a pleasing 3rd in a handicap at the course in October. Would probably prefer a sounder surface since much of his form is on good or faster.

Conclusion

Another competitive race with any number holding claims to this big prize. Moon Dice is well thought of and he is entitled to go close. At a bigger price Ultimate could be one to run a big race. Backing both EW will hopefully get you a run for your money.


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