Grand National

4.15 John Smith's Grand National Chase (4m4f) Grade 3

1. Synchronised 11-10: Labelled a mudlark courtesy of wins in the Welsh and Midlands Nationals but has dropped that tag in no uncertain terms this season. He won the Lexus Chase on good ground over Christmas and then added the most prestigious prize of them all, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, last month. Officially 7lbs well in but I am happy to oppose him in this. He has never been a fluent jumper and that must be a concern over the big fences, and he had a hard race in the Gold Cup and has tended to show his best form when fresh. He might win but offers little value.

2. Ballabriggs 11-09: Winner of the race last year but must defy a 10lb higher mark this season. Has been prepared with this in mind all year but suspicion is that he will run well but find at least a couple too good. Jumped the fences very well last year and has place prospects.

3. Weird Al 11-08: Quietly fancied by many for the Gold Cup but was pulled up after breaking a blood vessel. That is not the first time he has done that and whilst his mark looks fair this test might be too much for him.

4. Neptune Collonges 11-06: Formerly top class (174 rated) and has slipped down the weights to a mark of 157. Ran a cracker in the Haydock Grand National Trial and not impossible for him to run well if things fell his way. However, he tends to jump low and might find the early pace too hot to handle.

5. Calgary Bay 11-06: Fell in the race last year but has shown improved form this season. The downside is that his handicap mark has rocketed from 145 to 157 here. Others look better treated and also has stamina questions to answer.

6. Alfa Beat 11-05: Winner of the Kerry National for a 2nd time this season but a mark of 156 looks a tough ask considering he was no match for Chicago Grey in the NH Chase last season.

7. Planet Of Sound 11-05: A good second in the Hennessy earlier in the season but that didn't look the strongest renewal beforehand and looks even weaker now. The winner Carruthers has done little since and nothing in behind has given the form any strength either with the notable exception of Gold Cup 2nd The Giant Bolster. Well beaten in the Racing Post Chase since and others look to have stronger claims.

8. Black Apalachi 11-03: 2nd behind Don't Push It in this race back in 2010 and has only been seen once since when a staying on 2nd behind Prince De Beauchene. Now 13 and that form still suggests that 147 is only fair. Have to think his chance has been and gone though he could run into a place.

9. Deep Purple 11-03: Much of his early form is over less than 3m but won the London National over 3m6f in December under a fine ride from Paul Moloney. Stamina still a question mark however because the pace was steady that day, and Moloney passes him over.

10. Junior 11-02: Well fancied for this since a 24 length romp in the Kim Muir last season. His mark has rocketed to 153 (from 134 at Cheltenham) but showed that he was up to the task when a close 2nd to the improving Ikorodu Road in the Grimthorpe who has won again since. However, his low jumping style is a concern over the fences and his mark looks stiff enough. 

11. Chicago Grey 10-13: A leading fancy who showed his best form when a ready winner of the NH Chase last season. He has done little since but this has been the aim. Jumping is a concern and his hold up stalking style could land him in trouble if he gets too far back.

12. Tatenen 10-13: Something of an Ascot specialist and has yet to show any form over further than 2m6f. A mark of 150 over this trip looks a big ask.

13. Seabass 10-12: Super progressive with 7 straight wins starting from a mark of 95 and culminating in a cosy Grade 2 success to push his rating up to 155. Races off 149 here and is one of the more interesting contenders but majority of his form is over much shorter and on softer ground.  

14. Shakalakaboomboom 10-12: Improved this season but behind Calgary Bay in the Skybet Chase and has to defy another 5lb rise. A little disappointing in a novice hurdle last time but that is no great concern. Not without a chance but trainer has a poor record in long distance chases.

15. West End Rocker 10-12: Impressive winner of the Becher Chase on heavy ground but my fear is that he left the Grand National behind because he has to defy a 12lb higher mark. That, together with a preference for softer ground are causes for concern. Also not been seen since 3rd December, a major trend negative. Should jump and stay so has place claims.

16. According To Pete 10-12: Winner of two big handicaps this season, the Rowland Meyrick and the Peter Marsh but both on soft ground. 4lb badly in on official ratings. Might find a few too classy but not completely out of it.

17. On His Own 10-11: The choice of Ruby Walsh and his price has collapsed as a result. He was an impressive winner of the Thyestes Chase, a good Grand National trial, but now has to defy a 23lb higher mark here. Suspicion, confirmed by Walsh, that he might be better going right handed. Also short on experience and jumping is a question mark for me.

18. Always Right 10-10: Progressive but the wheels have fallen off in his past two starts when pulled up on both occasions. He has had a breathing operation since and that might help him recapture his form. He would require a career best to win but you couldn't completely discount him.

19. Cappa Bleu 10-10: Very promising young horse when a convincing winner of the Cheltenham Foxhunters. Things haven't fallen his way since but returned to form this season with 3 good efforts in handicaps. Stays and jumps well and choice of Paul Moloney. Big chance.

20. Rare Bob 10-09: Recent form leaves a little to be desired but an improved effort in the Leinster National last time. Still needs to find more. High scorer on trends.

21. Organisedconfusion 10-08: An impressive winner of the Irish National last season but at 7 is much younger than your typical winner. Remains unexposed at the trip and an interesting contender.

22. Treacle 10-08: Pricewise selection after a close 2nd in the Paddy Power Chase (off 128) and a staying on 3rd in the Irish Hennessy. However, probably flattered by the Hennessy effort, and it wasn't the strongest race either, and this looks a tough ask.

23. The Midnight Club 10-08: Favourite for the race last season when a 27 length 6th. Rejected by Ruby Walsh this time (said to be a bit careful at the fences) and last year was probably his chance. Not shown the same form yet this campaign.

24. Mon Mome 10-08: Grand National winner in 2009 at 100/1 but has shown little since. 2nd in a Cheltenham Handicap in January but that looked a poor race beforehand and even worse afterwards. Others look to have stronger claims, but the same could be said when he won.

25. Arbor Supreme 10-07: Fell last year and unseated the year before that. Little to recommend him on form this season and needs a career best to win. Trainer voiced stamina concerns.

26. Sunnyhillboy 10-05: One who had been threatening to win a big one for some time and finally put it together to run out an impressive winner of the Kim Muir. A small horse and the fences would be a concern but very well handicapped (10lbs well in) and stayed strongly into 3rd in the Irish National after being hampered. If he finds his rhythm early on he has a big chance.

27. Killyglen 10-04: Fell when still in contention last season and races off 5lbs lower this year. Suggestions that he would have been involved in the finish may be a little premature because there was still a way to travel. I'm not sure he's an out and out stayer.

28. Quiscover Fontaine 10-04: 4th in the Irish National last season and has raced exclusively over hurdles since. This has clearly been his target but AP, Ruby and Paul Townend have passed him over. Could go well but others preferred. 

29. Tharawaat 10-04: A winner at Galway in October but well beaten in both the Troytown and Thyestes since. Looks the stable second string and needs to find more.

30. Becauseicouldntsee 10-03: A solid 2nd to Sunnyhillboy in the Kim Muir when ultimately no match for the winner but he was still nicely clear of the remainder. Fell at the 2nd last year when reportedly too fresh after an interrupted preparation and that Cheltenham spin should put him spot on this time around. Stamina is proven but the fences are a slight concern given that he has fallen three times but he actually jumps well in the main. Nice weight and another with a solid chance.

31. State Of Play 10-03: 4th, 3rd and 4th in the last 3 renewals and no impossibility that he could run into the money again. However, he has never looked like winning and suspect he will find at least a few in front of him again. 

32. Swing Bill 10-03: Easy winner at Cheltenham in the Spring but has found life tougher since and was well beaten behind Sunnyhillboy last time. Others have more compelling claims.

33. Postmaster 10-02: A solid handicapper around the mid 130 mark but needs to find a different level to win this from 139. 

34. Giles Cross 10-01: A confirmed mudlark who has twice finished 2nd in the Welsh National but finally won the big one he deserved in the Haydock Grand National Trial in February. A bold jumping front runner but my concern is just how strongly he stays. That seems a strange concern but has been outstayed twice in the Welsh National, and found less than expected at Haydock last time. Could see him treading water up the run in.

35. Midnight Haze 10-00: Generally upward profile but seemed to find the 3m7f of the XC Chase at the Festival last month too much and this is further still. 

36. Vic Venturi 10-00: Plummeted down the weights (now off 137 and ran in this race off 156 last year) but was disappointing in a Hunter Chase last time. Has form over the fences (Becher Chase winner in 2009) but needs to recapture some sort of form, even from this mark.

37. In Compliance 10-00: A distant 13th last year  (beaten 98 lengths) and only 4lbs lower. At 12 he isn't getting any younger and difficult to fancy.

38. Viking Blond 10-00: Just 7 and a novice which immediately makes him hard to fancy given their poor record in the race. Pulled up in the Welsh National and a distant 5th beaten 49 lengths in an Ascot Handicap last time. Needs to find more. 

39. Hello Bud 10-00: 14 years old now but has form in the race (5th in 2010) and over the fences (winner of the Becher Chase in 2010). Hard to see him furthering his Aintree record this time around.

40. Neptune Equester 10-00: 5lb out of the handicap which he can ill afford. Also been dropped a 1lb since the weights were published after being well beaten behind Ikorodu Road and Junior in the Grimthorpe. 

Conclusion:

From a personal perspective this looks a fantastic race to have a good go at. I think there are solid reasons to oppose many of those at the top of the market, and some with excellent chances are trading at much bigger prices as a result: 

• I am concerned about the fences and his hard race in the Gold Cup for Synchronised and couldn't touch him at the price as a result. 
• I am unconvinced that Junior will relish the test and think the fences might catch him out. 
• On His Own has a huge handicap rise to defy and looks to be better going right handed. 
• Chicago Grey can take chances with his fences and his stalking style is not ideal in this race with the prospect of trouble in running.
• It is tough for a horse to win this race twice and Ballabriggs has a 10lb rise to defy to become the first back to back winner since Red Rum.
• West End Rocker prefers softer and races off a career high mark after winning the Becher Chase by a wide margin. Long break to overcome as well.
• Killyglen is possibly a doubtful stayer in my book but a wind operation may help in that regard.
• Seabass has shown his form on softer ground and has yet to win over further than 2m6f (Points excluded).
• Treacle has a big rise against him and is probably flattered by the Hennessy result.

The three I like are Cappa Bleu, Sunnyhillboy and Becauseicouldntsee.

Cappa Bleu looks really solid. He has yet to face the fences but is a fine jumper and does not want for size and scope. He stayed on well in unsuitable ground in the Welsh National and fairly stormed up the Cheltenham hill to win the Foxhunters as a 7yo. He has proven his liking for good ground and it looks as if things are finally falling into place so that he might be able to confirm his early promise.

Sunnyhillboy is the best handicapped horse in the field and yet trades at around 16/1. He wouldn't be the biggest but is a less awkward jumper than Synchronised. He stayed really well in the Irish National after being hampered and handles good ground well. He won the Kim Muir impressively and looks right at the top of his game. He has a lovely weight and, with a clear round, looks sure to go close.

Becauseicouldntsee has always looked an Aintree horse in the making. He was a good second in the 4m NH Chase in 2010 proving his stamina for marathon trips. He was well fancied last year but fell at the 2nd having been too fresh after an interrupted preparation. A fine run in defeat behind Sunnyhillboy last month should have put him spot on for this year's race and he generally jumps well. His front running style should stand him in good stead too. 

The best time to back is early on the Saturday morning when the bookies will be competing for business. Most firms are paying 5 places, with a couple going 6 places. It might be that more follow suit as the race nears but be sure to take advantage of the best EW terms.

1pt EW Cappa Bleu at best morning price with 5 places or more.

1pt EW Sunnyhillboy at best morning price with 5 places or more

1pt EW Becausicouldntsee at best morning price with 5 places or more..