Irish English Scottish

Irish Grand National - 09/04/12

I must confess that I have never really taken any great interest in the Irish Grand National before. However, this year it looks a really decent race with plenty holding strong claims. The horse that I like is the Mouse Morris trained Four Commanders. This is hardly an original selection seeing as he is outright favourite with most bookies but there is good reason for that because he has plenty in his favour. He was my paddock pick for the NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last month and very nearly rewarded my support, leading at the last where a slow jump cost him valuable momentum. Whether he would have won (I doubt it to be honest) is neither here nor there, but he would certainly have been a lot closer. That effort proved he is a strong stayer, that he handles good ground, that he jumps well and that he can handle a big field. From watching his previous races there is also a strong chance that he might be seen to even better effect going right handed, which would mean Fairyhouse would be right up his street. Ever since that fine run in defeat this has looked the logical target. I was fearful that the handicapper might have his say but, remarkably, the opposite has been the case. He was beaten 2 lengths by the 146 rated Teaforthree, and a neck by the now 143 rated Harry The Viking. I expected him to be raised to either 143 or 142 on the back of that but he has been dropped 1lb to 136. Given that he has good form (although comfortably beaten) behind the likes of Sir Des Champs and Last Instalment, has proven his aptitude for such a test in the NH Chase, and looks to be well handicapped, the 10/1 available looks an excellent bet.

English Grand National - 14/04/12

I posted my initial Grand National thoughts in my Spring Double post which can be seen here. The four names I had on my shortlist has now dropped to three after the injury to favourite Prince De Beauchene. The remaining are Cappa Bleu, Sunnyhillboy and Becauseicouldntsee. The weather forecast suggests it will rain on Monday, and then be predominantly dry with a few showers thereafter. I would expect that to produce ground on the easy side of good, maybe good to soft. With that in mind I see no reason to start looking at the mudlarks yet. If the forecast changes then that might change too. 

I included Cappa Bleu as the National selection for the Spring Double at 16/1 but he has now shortened a couple of points. He is still a fair price but for this treble I am looking elsewhere. I do like Sunnyhillboy but I am concerned about his ability to negotiate the fences. I am in no doubt that he will go very well indeed if he finds his rhythm but is a risky proposition nevertheless. However, the one that is now tempting me at the prices is the 3rd selection Becauseicouldntsee. I have already addressed his claims in the previous piece. He looks overpriced and appears the ideal type for the race.

Scottish Grand National - 21/04/12

Last season Beshabar finished a gallant 2nd in the NH Chase when rated 138 before going on to win the Scottish National off his new mark of 146. I fancy that Harry The Viking can pull off the same trick this time around. He went into Cheltenham with a mark of 137 and emerges with 143. He already has good handicap form to his name when a narrow but ultimately convincing winner from Ikorodu Road at Doncaster off 129. The form of that race has been boosted since with the aforementioned Ikorodu Road going on to finish a 1/4 length second at Newbury, then win the Grimthorpe back at Doncaster from National fancy Junior, and then win again at Newbury. He is now up to a mark off 141 which gives an indication that 143 should not prove insurmountable for Harry The Viking who beat him giving 5lbs. He looks a thorough stayer who will relish the test that the Ayr marathon will provide. At 7/1 he is not outstanding value but he does look the outstanding candidate. What's more, we know that this is his target. Another of interest is the Jonjo O'Neill trained Galaxy Rock who looks sure to appreciate the marathon trip and good ground.

1pt EW Treble Four Commanders (9/1), Becauseicouldntsee (18/1), Harry The Viking (7/1) with Bet365 paying 5 places on the Irish and English Grand Nationals.