The Arc - An In Depth Preview

The Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe is the premier middle distance championship in Europe. It sees the very best horses, trainers and riders from all over the world descend on Longchamp for the first Sunday in October. The competition is always fierce but the glory that awaits the winner is without equal. Both in prize money and prestige the Arc is Europe's richest race. The winner will receive a cheque for just shy of £2million and an almost guaranteed fortune at stud. The list of past winners features some of the very greatest names from years gone by: Sea Bird, Dancing Brave and more recently Zarkava and Sea The Stars. The question is who will add their name to this illustrious roll of honour this year?

Sarafina

3rd in last year's renewal, but suffered significant trouble in running when nearly brought down round the home turn. Many people were convinced she was an unlucky loser and connections are determined that she should get her chance to right that wrong. There is no doubt all that she did not have a clear run but whether she would have won without interference is less certain. She has a potent turn of foot which will stand her in good stead but her hold-up style of running will always mean she is at risk of encountering trouble in running. She has won 3 from 4 this season in a campaign geared entirely around this very race. She was beaten in her Arc Trial last season by none other than Midday in the Prix Vermeille. This time she went to the Prix Foy and a battle with the boys and was victorious under hands and heels riding. She once again showed her instant acceleration and came through a gap that was at best on the tight side, showing she still has all the necessary battling qualities and bravery required to triumph in what can be a rough contest. She is sure to be right at the top of her game and warrants the utmost respect. 

So You Think

A controlling share in this antipodean monster was purchased by Coolmore at the end of last season after a remarkable Australian campaign. He won 4 straight Group 1s over 10f in a very short period of time before finding the 16f Melbourne Cup beyond his stamina when a gallant 3rd under a big weight. He was proclaimed as the best horse they had seen for 40 years down under. His transferral to the Irish base of Aidan O'Brien at Ballydoyle was the subject of much anticipation but he brought with him a reputation of truly colossal proportions, one that it was always likely to prove impossible to meet. Nevertheless he started in emphatic style in the Northern hemisphere with two routine victories in Ireland before he ventured onto British shores for the first time with a crack at the Prince Of Wales' Stakes at Royal Ascot. He met with defeat, which was a shock to many, myself included. There were possible mitigating circumstances but it was a big dent because the superhorse was not supposed to be beaten, that was not part of the script. He returned to winning ways when defeating the Derby and Arc hero of 2010 Workforce in the Eclipse and then accounted for Snow Fairy in the Irish Champion Stakes by a hard fought 1/2 length. His form is right out of the top drawer but his reputation demanded more than just victory, we wanted victory in style, and on that account he has failed to deliver. But let that not diminish his achievements. There have been very few (if any) horses capable of scoring 5 Group 1 wins in the Southern Hemisphere and 3 in the Northern Hemisphere. I think his handy style of running will suit this race and think he is a threat to all. People have voiced stamina concerns with his campaign this year yet to see him stretch beyond 10f. But he travelled strongly in the Melbourne Cup for well over 12f and i cannot believe that it will be a problem for this giant horse. 

Workforce 

The winner of the Derby and Arc in a mixed 2010 campaign which saw him throw and absolute stinker in the King George at Ascot, where stablemate Harbinger trounced the field. He went to Longchamp with something to prove after his record breaking Derby performance and subsequent disappointment. But on his favoured softer ground he scythed through the field under a strong ride from Ryan Moore to break Sir Michael Stoute's Arc duck. This season, he won well enough at Sandown on his reappearance after avoiding a potential clash with So You Think in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. But racing fans could to see that epic battle in the Eclipse in July. On that occasion it was So You Think who proved too strong, winning by a convincing 1/2 length. But with the prospect of more improvement to come on softer ground and the additional 2 furlongs his reputation remained intact. His next stop was Ascot for the King George, the race which he had flopped in 12 months previously. This time around his performance was decent if unspectacular as he was readily held by Nathaniel in a farcical affair. It was reported after the race that he had been struck into by the ill-fated Rewilding and would head straight to the Arc. He arrives in Paris fresh and well after a lengthy break but this time around he will face unfavourable, and unseasonal, quick ground. The very soft he won on last year will be replaced with genuine good ground, which must do his chances no favours at all. Indeed, his trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, has voiced significant concerns in that regard. He is clearly capable of a winning performance but i can't help but feel that conditions are not in his favour, as they were last year.

Galikova

If racing wants a story then the two half sisters of Goldikova and Galikova could provide a brilliant narrative on France's biggest day. Goldikova contests the Group 1 Prix De la Foret as she continues her build up to her attempt at an unprecedented 4th Breeders' Cup Mile. Galikova, unlike her sister, is well capable of staying this 12f trip. She started the season well with 2 wins in lower grade races before finding just Pouliches winner Golden Lilac too good in the Prix De Diane. Trainer Freddie Head reported himself disappointed with her showing which emphasises the regard in which she is held. She made amends when reversing the form with Golden Lilac in emphatic fashion in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume D'Ornano. She then took the Group 1 Prix Vermeille in good style over course and distance, proving beyond reasonable doubt that she stays this 12f trip. She has been the subject of strong and sustained support throughout this past week and clearly confidence surrounding her chances is high. My question mark is that her performances have been characterised by a long finishing run, as opposed to the electric turn of foot we see from Sarafina. My concern would be whether she possesses the tactical speed to get herself out of trouble and whether she can quicken to catch the leaders if she finds herself too far back. There is also the doubt about how she will fare against the boys for the first time. She is a worthy contender and should things fall her way, i can definitely see her being on the premises, especially in receipt of so much weight from many of the principles. 

Meandre 

A horse who had an unspectacular juvenile career and then a quiet start to this season. He never even managed to break his maiden at 2 and was then beaten twice in minor contests at Saint Cloud to begin his 3yo campaign. Got off the mark in another minor race at Maissons Lafitte before taking a Listed race at Longchamp. But that was hardly a sign of things to come as his odds of 10/1 in the Grand Prix De Paris suggest. But improve he did and he ran out a ready winner from Seville in second, with Reliable Man and Treasure Beach, winners of the Irish and French Derbies back in 3rd and 4th. The form looks solid on paper but i have my doubts. Reliable Man and Treasure Beach both seemed to run below par and Seville has hardly done the form any favours since then. He was then beaten into 2nd behind his old adversary Reliable Man in the Prix Niel, the premier trial for the Arc itself. He is one who will appreciate the firmer ground he will encounter at the weekend. Connections feel confident enough to have stumped up the £87,000 fee to supplement him on Thursday. I'm not convinced that his form is up to the required level. In addition his trainer Andre Fabre, the Arc master, had Pour Moi as his main hope for this race. It seems inconceivable to me that he would have two 3yos capable of winning the Arc in his stable, and for that reason alone i am sceptical of his chances. He is still open to improvement and with the ground in his favour he could well give them something to think about.

Reliable Man

Did not meet the racetrack until his 3yo campaign which has included wins in the Prix Du Jockey Club and the Prix Niel. He ran on well in the French Derby over 11f to suggest that a step up to 12f would bring about improvement. His supporters were to be disappointed as he disappointed when favourite for the Grand Prix De Paris when trying the trip for the first time. That day Meandre was a comfortable winner but it was reported that Reliable Man was below par. He retuned to form when running out a convincing winner of the Prix Niel, the most significant Arc trial. He hails from the same stable as antepost favourite Sarafina and it is assumed that the mare is their best chance of success. One other factor against him is the likely ground conditions. He is well known to prefer a bit of cut, and the quicker ground was sighted as a reason for his disappointment in the Grand Prix De Paris. If the rain does not come, which seems very unlikely, then he may be rerouted to Ascot for Champions' Day instead. On softer ground i think he would have a big chance but in the absence of those conditions his participation must be a concern. In the last 24 hours his price on Betfair has drifted enormously, seemingly confirming the doubts. 

Masked Marvel 

He ran out a very impressive winner of the St Leger on his latest start, breaking the track record into a strong headwind thanks to a relentless gallop set by his stablemate Buthelezi. That form puts him right in the mix here with well regarded horses beaten far and square in behind. He is clearly a horse that is improving all the while and connections must feel that he has at least a decent chance to have stumped up £87,000 to supplement him into the race. The stable's original contender, Nathaniel, was ruled out on account of the fast ground but that should not inconvenience him. I think he still has a bit to find to challenge the very best and with the St Leger just 3 weeks ago i suspect that he might still be feeling the effects of that monumental effort here. 

Snow Fairy 

A top class mare who took the English and Irish Oaks last season before taking 2 competitive Group 1s in Japan and Hong Kong in a fabulous season. She won the English Oaks in battling fashion from the subsequently disqualified Meeznah, before running away with the Irish version on softer ground, despite a well voiced preference for firmer. After defeat behind Midday in the Yorkshire Oaks and failing to stay in the St Leger her focus was turned to foreign targets, and with great success. A Group 1 double in  the far east earned connections a small fortune and marked her out as a horse of the highest calibre. She has yet to get off the mark this season in a somewhat interrupted campaign but has shown marked improvement on each occasion. An intended crack at the Dubai Sheema Classic on World Cup night was set aside after she suffered a setback. Her reappearance was delayed until June when she was s disappointing 4th in the Prince Of Wales' behind So You Think. That effort was followed by defeat in the Nassau at Goodwood behind her old rival Midday. She then pushed So You Think all the way in the Irish Champion Stakes before going down by 1/2 a length. She showed top class form in the Autumn last year and it appears that she is coming to the boil at just the right time once more. This year's campaign has been disrupted by ground concerns but in her case because it is too soft rather than too firm. However this does mean that she arrives here fresher than most and it might just be that that counts in her favour. A very good mare and one not to be underestimated, especially with the ground coming right, and her appearing to be coming to the boil at just the right moment. 

Hiruno D'Amour 

One of two Japanese raiders who come to France seeking a first success in Europe's premier race. Won a Group 1 over 2m on his last start in Japan and them finished a close second in the Prix Foy behind antepost favourite Sarafina. Before that he had won a Group 2 over 10f confirming that he has both the requisite speed and stamina combination to throw down a challenge in this competitive heat. The main hope for Japan ahead of Nakayama Festa who finished a close up second in the race 12 months ago. There is no doubt that he possesses each way claims but it is difficult to assess his chance with any certainty. My own impression is that he might find a few too good, and a win record of 2/10 seems to confirm this. 

Danedream 

An intriguing contender from Germany. She started the season in unspectacular style but has improved out of all recognition, running out a very impressive winner on her last two starts. On both occasions she was taking on older males. They may not have been the best of the best but the manner of victory was striking. One possible concern is that she was only 5th when tried in France in the Group 2 Prix De Malleret behind Testosterone. That rival reopposes here but was comfortable beaten by Galikova in the Prix Vermeille last time. Whilst there can be little doubt she has improved since then i think she still has a bit to find to challenge the very best here. 

St Nicholas Abbey 

A precocious juvenile with a very tall reputation he has so far failed to live up to. A ready win in the Racing Post Trophy saw him start as a very warm favourite for the 2000 Guineas. He could only finish 6th and that would be his only start at 3 as he was ruled out of the Derby, for which he was still favourite, after suffering a setback. He was only 3rd on his seasonal reappearance in a Listed race which did not hold out much hope for him recovering his dented reputation. Improved dramatically when taking the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in impressive fashion on his next start and then ran down Midday in the closing stages to take the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom. Has since finished 3rd in the King George behind Nathaniel and Workforce and in the Prix Foy behind Sarafina and Hiruno D'Amour. But on both occasions he was inconvenienced by the steady pace and an end to end gallop can see his stamina put to good effect. He might be one to bely his big price and run into a place. 

Nakayama Festa 

Finished second in the race last year when just going down to Workforce in the closing stages. That form puts him in the mix but has only had the one start this season when last of 4 in the Prix Foy after suffering a setback in the Japan Cup at the back end of last year. This has been the target since then and he will no doubt strip fitter for his reappearance but he still has question marks to answer.  

Treasure Beach 

Winner of the Irish Derby after finishing a close second to the ill fated Pour Moi in the English version at Epsom. He was then only 4th in the Grand Prix De Paris but it is possible that it was one race too many. He then returned to form after a little break to take a Group 1 in America, although the opposition was nowhere near the calibre he will face here. I think he is decent but unspectacular and will need to improve a good deal to figure in this. 

Testosterone 

Winner of the Group 2 Prix De Malleret with Danedream back in 5th but then found Galikova too strong when tried in Group 1 company in the Prix Vermeille for the first time. She has shown a good level of ability but it takes an exceptional filly to beat the best of the boys and there is little to suggest that she is up to the task. 

Shareta 

Another who finished in behind Galikova in the Prix Vermeille and no reason to suggest that she can reverse the form with that rival. And that leaves her with plenty to find to figure in a race such as this. 

Silver Pond 

A decent animal but not up to the required level on what we have seen so far. He was only 1 and a 1/2 lengths behind Sarafina in the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud but in reality the winner was very comfortably on top at the finish. Will need a substantial career best to figure in this race.

Conclusion 

If you had asked me who would win the Arc at the start of the year i would have confidently said So You Think, provided that he runs. He does run but now i am not so sure. I was convinced that he was the real deal after convincing and impressive wins in weak contests in Ireland. It was a shock and a disappointment when he was beaten at Royal Ascot and he has not quite lived up to my own lofty expectations, despite a hatrick of Group 1 victories. His form is right out of the top drawer, he is tough and has all the necessary attributes. His stamina at this trip is unproven but i do not anticipate it being a problem. Sarafina will be a big danger but i don't think her form is up to the level to make her a 7/2 favourite. Galikova is probably the best of the 3yos but it takes a very very good filly to beat the boys and i'm not convinced she is quite up to that level. Additionally, Freddie Head has suggested that the Vermeille was her primary target which must be a concern. Last years winner Workforce was possibly fortunate to triumph and a stronger renewal this time may prove beyond him. The French 3yo colts of Reliable Man and Meandre appear much of a muchness and i find it difficult to fancy either, though preference is for Reliable Man but the ground remains a concern and his participation is still in some doubt. Masked Marvel is a threat but the proximity of his huge St Leger effort is a worry. Snow Fairy is a very good mare but i feel will come up short against the very best. The Japanese challenge looks vulnerable and Danedream's form has an unsubstantial look to it.


And therefore, almost by process of elimination, i arrive at So You Think. His draw in 13 is far from ideal but i do not think it is disastrous either. There are no front runners in the field and i think this may prove crucial to his chance. He has more than enough pace to lay up handy despite his poor draw and with stablemates St Nicholas Abbey and Treasure Beach drawn in 7 and 12 he should not have any trouble taking a good position early in the race. I would not be at all surprised to see the Ballydoyle contingent try and boss the race from the front, and i feel it may be a tactic that pays dividends, provided they can get it right. St Nicholas Abbey and Treasure Beach can set a decent, but not ridiculous gallop, and So You Think can sit in behind that pair until the straight before kicking from the front. And in that scenario it will take a good one to give him ground and catch him up the relatively short Longchamp straight.


I was hoping that he would be a definite selection but i cannot have the necessary confidence anymore, after an excellent but still underwhelming season. The draw is not ideal, but the ground will be in his favour and i would be surprised if the trip was a problem. I think the Australian import possesses the strongest claims, in what is a very open renewal, and he is fancied to confirm his greatness alongside the very finest names in the sport.

Favourite For The Arc

Who will start favourite for the Arc? If you knew the answer you could secure a nice profit before the race even began. And i think i have a pretty good bet to get things off to a winning start.

The long time antepost favourite is the French mare Sarafina. She has been at the head of the market since the retirement of Pour Moi through injury. Second on the list is the Aidan O'Brien trained So You Think. He has been right at the top of affairs since he was confirmed on target for the race. At the moment the bookies bet around 7/2 for Sarafina and 4/1 for So You Think. Both are likely to be well suited to the drying conditions, which cannot be said for their nearest market rivals, Galikova and Workforce at 7/1. So to my eye a bet on either Sarafina or So You Think being favourite come the off is looking pretty strong.

In the 'name the favourite' markets Victor Chandler bet 5/4 on Sarafina and 11/8 on So You Think with Paddy Power offering just 4/5 on Sarafina but a tasty 13/8 about So You Think. With that in mind i think the bet here is to take the 5/4 offered by Victor Chandler on Sarafina and the 13/8 for So You Think from Paddy Power to guarantee a nice profit. A £100 bet on both outcomes will yield a profit of £25 if Sarafina starts favourite and £62.50 should So You Think eclipse her at the head of the market. And you'll be looking at a £200 loss if they both lose their positions! But i think that is a very unlikely scenario given the current conditions. The one potential sticking point is if both are drawn exceptionally poorly. This would be particularly unfortunate but i still think they are likely to remain at the head of the bookies boards when the gates open on Sunday afternoon. You could obviously 'Dutch' them to equalise your profit whatever the outcome.

Name the Favourite Market:

5/4 Sarafina with Victor Chandler

13/8 So You Think with Paddy Power

Super Saturday

Today’s Jackpot effort was a bit of a mixed affair, with a non-runner, a couple of winners, a second, a third and the disappointing Tazahum. We definitely didn’t see the best of Sir Michael Stoute’s colt, and I hope they tuck him away now for what should be a promising four-year old campaign. I thought Lyric of Light was really impressive in the Fillies’ mile, travelling strongly and responding to pressure whilst still appearing green. She looks very classy and is a live contender for Classic glory next season. Firdaws also showed plenty of promise in third, and I have a feeling she will continue to improve with time. 

The ladies continue to take centre stage tomorrow, with the Group One Cheveley Park Stakes at 2:35 and the Group One Sun Chariot Stakes just over half an hour later. The latter sees the classy Saphresa bid for her third victory in the race, but with no obvious pace angle to the contest it could turn into a trappy affair and one which I want to stay well clear of. There should be no hanging about in the Cheveley Park, however, as the front running Best Terms goes in search of her fifth victory of the term. She was mightily impressive at York, breaking smartly and quickening the tempo at the two pole to leave the rest trailing in her wake. She deserves her place at the head of the market tomorrow, but the rattling fast ground and the stiff six of the Rowley Mile makes me want to take her on. And ANGELS WILL FALL is my weapon of choice. Charlie Hills’s filly made an impressive Windsor debut before seeing off Regal Realm at Ascot next time out. That form ties in closely with today’s Group Three second Questing, as well as Group One winning Lyric of Light and has strong look to it. Although Angels has run seventh on her last two outing, she pulled ferociously hard on both accounts and left nothing in the tank for a finishing kick. She may not settle tomorrow, and could face a similar fate, but the form of her sire Acclamation, who was best on fast ground over six furlongs, suggests she may just have conditions to suit. And at 20/1, she represents meaty each way value. 

The Betfred Cambridgeshire, the highlight of tomorrow’s card and one the most intriguing handicaps of the season, falls into a similar category as last week’s Ayr Gold Cup in terms of being a complete cavalry charge that often buries punters under the rattle of hooves. The race is often won by a pattern performer lurking in a handicap, and I have a feeling QUESTIONING could be just that. John Gosden’s colt ran a really promising race behind King Torus last time out over a mile, staying on with real purpose and leaving the impression that nine furlongs (tomorrow’s trip) would be ideal. That race had today’s winner Dark Promise back in third, and was run on the quick ground that will be experienced at HQ tomorrow. The shrewd Gosden has replaced the cheekpieces worn that day with a visor, a tool that the trainer has an exceptional record with first time out. I have a feeling the son of Elusive Quality has been laid out for this, and could be at least ten pounds well in racing off 99. The in form Circumvent and Albaqaa should be bang on the premises, whilst I would be surprised if Dare to Dance lines up with the ground as quick as it is. So get on William Buick’s mount at a tasty 11/1.

Another take on the Jackpot

I agree with Tom that not risking a mere £2 and having a go on tomorrow’s jackpot would be a cardinal sin. But I thought it would be rude not to take on the President with my selections for the potentially life-changing pot that goes up for grabs at HQ.

1:15

I think the key to this race is the Prestige form from Goodwood last month. Although Rakasa finished in front of Questing (only by a head), the former was forced to lead in a muddling race and was a tad keen up front. With a stronger pace on tomorrow, the highly thought of Gosden filly can reverse the form and claim the spoils. The once raced Albaspina, Alsindi and Minidress could be anything, but I think Carlisle maiden form is often to be taken with a pinch of salt; Clive Brittain has had a shocking season and is not a trainer who I follow with juveniles and Dettori prefers Rakasa for the boys in blue. So I’ll stick with QUESTING.

1:50

Haggas has a strong hand in this race with the rapidly improving Electra Star and the tough and durable Soorah. Both, however, might lack the class of one or two others and with Seta an in and out sort of character, I like the look of DARK PROMISE. I thought her run at Haydock last time out was particularly impressive as she maintained a strong gallop to line, despite taking a good tug in front. The galloping nature of Newmarket should suit her long stride, and this daughter of Sharmadal might not be finished improving yet if she can settle close to the lead.

2:25

The presence of Libranno should ensure a strong gallop here, and that will hopefully play into the hands of TAZAHUM. Although the Sir Michael Stoute inmate is favourite, and therefore not ideal jackpot material, I believe his second to the rapidly improving Green Destiny at York is an excellent piece of form. The more seasoned campaigners Premio Loco and Poet’s Voice bring strong claims to the table, but we now know the ceiling of their ability and consistency is not always their forte. The lightly race Tazahum can therefore make his presence felt.

3:00

On all known form, this should be between the May Hill winner Lyric of Light and runner up Fallen For You. Although both ran good races at Doncaster last time, and are clearly on the upgrade, I want to take them on with FIRDAWS. The American bred daughter of Mr Greeley confirmed her debut promise with a two length maiden win at Salisbury the next time out. Although she wasn’t overly impressive to watch that day, she did overcome a wide draw and an inadequate sharp seven furlong trip. I believe she has the scope to achieve much better, and I would love nothing more than to see her record a poignant success for trainer Roger Varian.

3:35

An absolute minefield and if you are still in contention at this stage, you could be about to fall flat on your face. I’ll take a chance with SPIRITUAL STAR, as Andrew Balding had a juvenile winner at Newmarket on Thursday and his debut third was filled with promise.

4:10

Going to agree with Tom for the Jackpot’s lucky last. A return to a quick surface should see DANGEROUS MIDGE put his first two runs this season behind him and if he’s anyway near his best, he’ll prove in a different stratosphere to this opposition.

These selections are not particularly original and if they did miraculously come up, the pot would be split between a hell of a lot of punters. But I wouldn’t say no to one hundredth of £2.5 million. Good luck to those having a bash tomorrow. I hope it’s a £2 stake that scuppers the big boys.

Jackpot Rollover - Newmarket

The Jackpot is one of those impossible bets. One that it is impossible to imagine winning. Generally the 'small' punters such as you and i just fill up the pot for the 'big' boys to take home. And when i say 'big' i mean very big. Messrs Findlay, Veitch and Nevison (and others) are sure to each put thousands into the pot tomorrow. They have the capital to put up the big money stakes to take the big money returns. For you and i, we must content ourself with the hope of improbable good fortune. Can our £2 line possibly beat the thousands held by the professional punters? It's very unlikely indeed, but it most certainly can be done. When there is a Jackpot rollover the big and the small punters swarm like vultures. They all want a piece of the action. The big boys want to make a living and the small players are hoping for that win which changes their life forever. 

At Newmarket tomorrow it is estimated that there will be a record £2.5m Jackpot pool, courtesy of the biggest ever rollover of £1,262,152 from today's card. The record payout currently stands at £1,445,671 which was scooped by one £2 punter at Exeter in March. It just goes to show that it can be done. Often with these pool bets it plays to go against the grain. If all the favourites win then there will be thousands of winning tickets and with such a large pool they will be worth a bit too. But if you want the big payday you need the ticket that nobody else has. And that means you need to think like nobody else. The intelligent and logical choices gain you little because there are lots of intelligent and logical people putting money into the pool. There will be a few crazy ones too and if you want the money it's likely that you will need to be one of them. If there is only one winning ticket you can bet it will be one of two things: An illogical single ticket holder with no idea about racing or one of the big players. They can afford to have all the bases covered; intelligent and logical, and crazy. As far as i am concerned, i would happily settle for a slice of the action. With that in mind my selections below hopefully have decent chances of taking the prize, even if i have to share it with a few similarly brilliant tipsters. The Jackpot is a bet that dreams are made of so we may as well dream the dream.

1.15 - Oh So Sharp Stakes (Group 3) (2yo Fillies) (7f)

Selection: Albaspina

The key race here is the Group 3 Prestige Stakes at Goodwood. Regal Realm was the winner but Rakasa, Questing and Nayarra filled the next three places, split by two heads. Ultimately Regal Realm was a comfortable winner even if the margin was small. She met trouble in running but was still able to get up on the line. She has since finished 4th in the May Hill and i think it may pay to take a chance on one of the lesser exposed types. One that fits that category is Albaspina. Sir Mark Prescott knows what he's doing in these races and i think she is worth a punt. She won in good style at Carlisle on her debut despite showing greeness. If she improves for the run then she may well be capable of troubling the principles.

Edit: Albaspina is a NR. With that in mind i am forced to turn to the other 'could be anything' type Alsindi. She won well on her debut on soft ground at Yarmouth and comes from a family that appreciate a sounder surface. Hopefully there will be a good deal of improvement to come.

1.50 - Rosemary Stakes (Listed) (3yo+ Fillies) (1m)

Selection: Seta

I will take a chance on Seta here. She has always been held in high regard by Cumani and Fallon but has never quite lived up to their expectations. However, this is only a Listed race and she has proven herself up to this level in the past. She will get the firm ground she needs and after some trip experimentation she is back to the mile, which seems to be her optimum. An obvious choice but i hope she can do the business.

2.25 - Joel Stakes (Group 2) (3yo+) (1m)

Selection: Premio Loco

Poet's Voice has shown his best form on soft ground so conditions will not be in his favour. He also has to put a very disappointing showing at Goodwood behind him. I think Ransom Note would appreciate an extra furlong. Tazahum looks smart but is the likely favourite and for that reason i will side with Premio Loco. He regained the winning thread at Doncaster over 7f. The step up to a mile should not be a problem and he will get the firm surface he likes here.

3.00 - Fillie's Mile (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (1m)

Selection: Albamara

This race centres on the May Hill at Doncaster where Lyric Of Light and Fallen For You fought out the finish, with Samitar back in 3rd. That form is leagues above anything else in the race and the front two are difficult to ignore. Firdaws seems overrated on what she has done thus far. Albamara looks interesting. Sir Mark Prescott pitches her in at the deep end here. She was very unlucky on her debut but made amends in impressive style at Epsom next time. I think the winner most likely comes from the May Hill first and second, and i think the form will be reversed. But, i need to think differently to make any money so i will take a chance on the unexposed filly Albamara. It is looking like a good day for the Prescott team.

3.35 - Maiden (2yo) (7f)

Selection: Cayuga

Not original but i am told by a reasonably reliable sources that this is expected to win first time up. He is fit and well and has shown promise on the gallops and comes from a family that traditionally do well on debut.

4.10 - Godolphin Stakes (Listed) (3yo+) (1m4f)

Selection: Dangerous Midge

A tricky heat with many either seemingly not good enough or out of form. Mike de Kock sends over Mahbooba and he may be one to find the necessary improvement. But if Dangerous Midge returns to something like his 122 rated best then the rest will be running for second place. His form has tailed off lately and he was very disappointing at Doncaster after a mid-season break. He looks to have found a good opportunity to regain the winning thread.

Good luck to anyone who plays. You will need it.

Combat those midweek blues

The way racing can conjure contrasting emotions was seen to no better effect this week, as the weekend’s thrilling action was marred by the loss of two legends of the sport, Donald ‘Ginger’ McCain and Michael Jarvis. Tom has already made a fitting tribute to the man most famously associated with Grand National, and I’m in no doubt that ‘Rummy’ will be pleased to see him after more than fifteen years, even if the racing world is mourning his loss. Jarvis could not have been cut from a more different cloth than McCain, offering a much less controversial, if equally entertaining, perspective on the game. I’m in no doubt that Roger Varian, the former assistant trainer to Jarvis who took over his license at the start of the season, will continue to do the man proud after making an impressive start to his career. Both men will be sorely missed. 

The preview blog got off to an interesting start on Saturday, with Green Destiny’s victory kicking things off in good style before Mac’s Power highlighted the volatile nature of this game less than an hour later, trailing in second last in the Ayr Gold Cup. I’m hoping to get back on track tomorrow with an each way punt on RED SEVENTY in the 3:55 at Newmarket. Midweek racing is usually the graveyard of the desperate and the daft, but we have been blessed this week with a decent meeting at Goodwood today and the three day Cambridgeshire meeting kicking off at HQ tomorrow. The Group Three in which the selection runs could potentially be a punting minefield, with many of the more fancied runners having impressed in maiden or condition company and are therefore filed in the ‘could be anything’ category. But I’m prepared to take on the market leaders with Richard Hannon’s colt, who won his first two races nicely before finishing seventh of seventh last time out. He definitely lacked luck in that run, being hampered at the furlong pole when steadily making progress without ever looking like winning. The form of his second start stands out most to me though, when the selection had the measure of Poetic Dancer who subsequently finished second in a warm Doncaster nursery. The form of that race was highlighted on Saturday, with fourth placed Roger Sez landing a Group Three ay Ayr, albeit on very testing ground. The main dangers to the son of Sakhee will most likely come from favourite Farraaj, whose Sandown win was franked by Tell Dad at the weekend, and the other Hannon runner, Crius. Many would argue he is the yard’s first string, being partnered by Richard Hughes, but Hannon rarely sends his horses for a parade ring day out. I landed one of my favourite punts when Dick Turpin, partnered by Ryan Moore, pipped his stablemate Canford Cliffs, partnered by Richard Hughes, in last year’s Greenham stakes. From then on in I’ve never been afraid to back the supposed lesser of the two Hannon horses. So with that in mind, Red Seventy makes definite appeal at 16/1.

The Best Horse Ever? - Part 2

A Name With Significance

 

Prince Khalid Abdulla handed Frankel a significant burden when he named him after the legendary American Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel. He won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Trainer on five occasions and set the record for the most Group/Grade 1 victories in a single season. A record which still stands today at 25. The man was a legend and it seemed impossible that the equine Frankel could live up to the achievements of his late human namesake.

  

Race 1 - European Breeders' Fund Maiden Stakes (1m)

No Ordinary Maiden - Result

 

The story began on one very wet Newmarket evening in August. At 6.25 a horse trained by Sir Henry Cecil and ridden by Tom Queally began his racing career. His potential was well known. Even Cecil himself, unpractised in the art of ‘hype’, commented that his charge "could be above average". The bookies were not taking any chances and he started as the well backed 7/4 favourite and won well. In atrocious conditions he travelled very strongly until the furlong marker before being asked to quicken. The half length margin did not do the performance justice for he was comfortably on top at the line. And little did we know that the horses in behind were far more than mere Maidens. In second was non other than Group 1 King George winner and Arc contender Nathaniel, and a further 5 lengths back in 3rd was Group 3 Sandown Classic Trial winner Genius Beast. It was undoubtedly a hot Maiden, but only with the benefit of hindsight is it possible to establish just how good. It has even been suggested that it was the best Maiden ever. In his customary understated style, Sir Henry confirmed himself pleased with his debut performance and stated "potentially he could be very nice". 

 

Race 2 - Frank Whittle Partnership Conditions Stakes (7f)

Demolition At Doncaster - Result

 

It was not until his performance on his second racecourse outing that he really began to show what he might be capable of. The gallop reports remained positive and the evidence on the track likewise. A conditions race at Doncaster resulted in a 13 length win in a canter and a very good speed figure. For those who had missed his debut, this exhibition firmly highlighted him as a future star. The opposition might not have been up to much but he absolutely destroyed them, and hard on the bridle too. It was a thrilling display and confirmed the whispers surrounding the horse that he could be something very special. Stewart Machin, the At The Races commentator, was moved to say "he might just have a touch of star quality about him". The one person who refused to be drawn into superlatives was Cecil, preferring to let his horse do the talking on the racetrack. 

 

Race 3 - Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes, Group 2 (1m)

Group Company - Result

His next stop was Ascot, and his first foray into Group company in the Group 2 Royal Lodge, sponsored by Juddmonte, the breeding operation of his owner Prince Khalid Abdulla. The opposition appeared decent on paper, and would prove to be much better than he made them look. He travelled sweetly in rear before being asked to quicken when leaving the back straight. His turn of foot round the home turn was scintillating. He left useful horses trailing in his wake in a matter of strides. Those left well behind included Epsom Derby runner up and Irish Derby winner Treasue Beach, and Klammer who had won a Listed race in France on his previous start and would go on to win the Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes next time out. Simon Holt stated in commentary that "this could be a very good horse" and, in typically modest fashion, the Racing Post comments in running described him as “very impressive”. Again the time was fast, but the manner of his victory was emphatic. The horse was beginning to live up to the hype. Even Sir Henry was beginning to be drawn on comparisons to his great 2yo from 1975 Wollow. It was confirmed the he would follow in Wollow's footsteps with his final juvenile start in the Dewhurst. 

 

 

The Opposition - Dream Ahead and Saamidd

Whilst Frankel had been showing everyone what he was capable of at Ascot, Dream Ahead was in the process of racking up a double of Group 1 wins to add to his impressive maiden success. He won the Prix Morny in France, but his performance in the Middle Park back at Newmarket confirmed himself a worthy challenger to the champion 2yo Crown that many had already placed on the head of Frankel. On official ratings the David Simcock trained Dream Ahead was rated superior to the mighty Frankel. Whilst the official handicappers had their own view on affairs, the racing public had already decided that Frankel was their 'chosen one'. Cecil's unusual confidence and his devastating displays meant many had already decided that he could not be beaten in the Dewhurst. Meanwhile, Saamidd had cruised to success on two occasions. The first in a decent Newbury Maiden in good style, and the second in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes, again showing an electric turn of foot. Frankie Dettori had revealed in his post race interview that he was nicknamed ‘Pegasus’ at Godolphin. It seemed inconceivable that there could be three such promising colts in the same year, and all heading to the same race, the Dewhurst at Newmarket. And  so the stage was set for the ‘2yo race of the century’. 

 

 

Race 4 - Dubai Dewhurst Stakes, Group 1 (7f)

Crowning Of A Champion - Result

The Dewhurst was not a race to be missed and I travelled to Newmarket with great excitement and anticipation. The supposed highlight, the Champions' Stakes, was lost in a blur of eagerness at the clash of three seemingly top class juveniles. On official ratings Dream Ahead was 5lbs clear on 128, to Frankel's 123, with Saamidd rated 115. Timeform rated Dream Ahead 1lb clear of Frankel on 130 and 129 respectively. But the bookmakers, the punters, and Frankel's growing army of supporters paid little heed to the views of the professional handicappers. There was no doubt who they thought was best and that was Sir Henry's charge. Once more he started at odds-on as he was backed into 4/6, with Dream Ahead a 5/2 chance and Saamidd at 7/1. With so much anticipation the race itself was an inevitable disappointment. Dream Ahead and Saamidd filled the second last and last respectively with the proximity of the Middle Park and Dewhurst blamed for Dream Ahead's flop, and the softening ground conditions for Saamidd's disappointment. But for Frankel, it was a triumph filled with promise and expectation. Circumstances did their best to conspire against him. A hefty bump on leaving the stalls had set the fiery colt alight, and he took a fierce hold throughout. As they approached the 2f pole Queally finally gave the long-striding colt his head. The response was instant as he bounded to the lead to a roar of approval from the expectant Grandstand. But as he surged to a comfortable victory there was more than a tinge of anticlimax. It was not the devastating performance we had been hoping for, as his hard pulling took its inevitable toll in the closing stages. Sir Henry also suggested that a break would benefit his magnificent colt. Nevertheless he had good horses well beaten in behind. Dream Ahead is now a 4 time Group 1 winner and Roderic O'Connor would go on to win the Irish 2000 Guineas. It was a performance that raised questions, as well as giving answers. But one answer was resounding, that Frankel was best. For his followers the dream lived on. The long winter months would be filled with anticipation for his reappearance in the spring. So often the 2yo Champions flatter at 2 to deceive at 3 but it was hoped that Frankel would buck that trend. But nobody would know what Frankel would produce until he reappeared in the spring. The Frankel dream lived on, but for Saamidd and Dream Ahead, their unbeaten records lay in tatters. For their connections it was a question of picking up the pieces. The winter would be spent rebuilding, and painfully lacking in the dreams that Frankel's fans would enjoy.

 

 

A Joint Champion?! 

 

To the surprise and astonishment of much of the racing public, Frankel and Dream Ahead were jointly awarded the title of Champion 2yo. Both ended the season rated 126, but the bookmakers odds for the first Classic of the year told a different story; Frankel was a very warm favourite, with Dream Ahead a 14/1 chance. Once again, the views of the official handicappers and the wider racing public were poles apart. It seemed clear to all that Frankel had confirmed his superiority in the Dewhurst but it was Dream Ahead's Middle Park success that was afforded the title of best performance by a 2yo. So, whilst everybody else discussed whether Frankel was the best 2yo ever, the official ratings didn't even have him as the outright best 2yo of the year. On Racing Post Ratings he was rated the best 2yo of the 21st Century, and 3rd of all time, behind only Arazi and Celtic Swing. But the ratings mattered little because it would be his achievements at 3 that would define whether he was a great horse or not. Nearly everybody hoped, and many believed that he was. It was now up to the horse to prove them right or wrong.

Ginger McCain - A Racing Legend

This morning it was reported that legendary trainer Ginger McCain had passed away in the night. It is a sad loss for racing because he was a wonderful ambassador for the sport. He was forthright to the point of bluntness, and had no time whatsoever for political correctness. He was never afraid to speak his mind. He always said exactly what he wanted to say, and never what he thought he ought to say. This made him something of a liability in the live television interviews which he regularly gave at Aintree. You could see the dread in the poor presenters' faces as they waited for Ginger to come up with something that should not be broadcast. He was not everybody's cup of tea but nobody can question his passion for the game, and his honesty.

He will forever be remembered or his association with the great Red Rum. Both Ginger and Red Rum did much to drag the great race back from the brink. I am quite sure that we will never again see a three time Grand National winner. There has been no dual winner of the race since he last triumphed in 1977. It is most unlikely that his achievements over those great fences will ever be equalled, let alone beaten. And it was not just his victories. It must not be forgotten that he was second on two occasions. 1st in 1973 and 1974, 2nd in 1975 and 1976 and 1st in 1977. In those days it was remarkable to complete the course on 5 consecutive occasions let alone be in the first two. No horse will ever come close. Enjoy his historic third triumph in full:

As well as the great Red Rum, he also won the big race in 2004 with Amberleigh House. Another fine advertisement for his training prowess. 

His son Donald has taken over the licence in great style. The yard continues to flourish, and with horses like Peddler's Cross it seems assured that his legacy will live on long after his passing.

Ginger McCain. A great man. R.I.P.

Saturday Preview

The William Hill Ayr Gold Cup, the highlight of tomorrow's racing, often resembles a scene out of Tennyson's poem 'The Charge of the Light Brigade', rather than a traditional horse race. The six furlong contest, run at the home of Scottish racing, is a blistering cavalry charge involving 27 jockeys and 108 thundering hooves. And punters can often face a similar fate to the six hundred who rode into the valley of death, as luck in running, or indeed a lack of it, often dictates the outcome. With favourites facing a similar fate - the last to collect was Coastal Bluff in 1996 - it's the sort of race I would normally avoid like the plague. But tomorrow is an exception, as I can't resist an each way punt on MAC'S POWER. I have James Fanshawe's gelding in the unlucky book this season after running some great races in smoking hot handicaps without managing to get his head in front. His third to Hoof It in the Stewards' Cup reads exceptionally well, especially after the winner has franked the form since with some excellent performances in Group One company.The son of Exceed and Excel appears to have been handed a good draw in stall 8, with the winners of Friday's two big handicaps coming out of low births. Pace should also be guaranteed, not only with the furious nature of the race itself but the presence of front running Croisultan in stall 7. I have the Irish raider down as one of the main dangers, alongside the improving Pepper Lane and the only Scottish runner Haweyethenoo. I'm sure the latter is more than capable of winning a handicap off 104, but I think the ground and draw might just be enough to quell his chance tomorrow. So at 12/1, with most firms paying a quarter the odds for the first five places, Mac’s Power is worth a punt to land the spoils.

Although the rest of Ayr’s card is a competitive affair, it doesn’t look particularly appealing from a punting perspective and is best left alone. A similar case could be made for the action at Newbury, apart from the Dubai Duty Free Arc Trial in which GREEN DESTINY looks very much the one to beat. William Haggas’s inmate has chequered form, with victories coming in between two poor efforts when sent off a short priced favourite. Excuses, however, can be made for those runs and I believe the best is yet to come from the gelded son of Marju. He saw off some good types in comfortable enough style at York, pricking his ears when hitting the front in the final furlong. The step up to 11 furlongs looks a supreme positive, as does some cut in the ground. Despite carrying a penalty for his latest success, Kieron Fallon can steer Green Destiny home in front of the improving Al Kazeem.

The Best Horse Ever? - Part 1

The question of who is the best horse ever is one that is frequently asked. The stars of each generation come and go, and the best of them inevitably generate comparisons with the greats of years gone by. In recent times we have been blessed with a select bunch who deserve this comparison. Horses such as Sea The Stars, Goldikova, Zarkava, Zenyatta and so on. This comparison is nearly always fruitless for it is nearly always impossible to draw anything but tentative conclusions. Was Sea The Stars as good as Dancing Brave? A question to which we will never know the answer. This does not mean that it is not worthy of discussion. There are many who will offer a definitive answer, but this is merely their own interpretation of the information available, and you can guarantee that somewhere there will be someone who has come to an alternative conclusion. One of the great beauties and frustrations of horse racing is the need for this interpretation. So often there are mitigating factors, reasons for success and, most importantly, reasons for defeat. It is how we interpret the information provided that enables us to form our own opinions. This ambiguity provides for rich discussion about the relative merits of the equine athletes in question, and the opportunity for the shrewdest to make a quick buck in the process. 

One horse about which this question has been asked is Frankel. There can be little doubt that he is worthy of such exalted discussion. There is almost unanimous agreement that he is deserving of a seat at the table of great racehorses. But whether he deserves to sit at the head of the table is still the cause of great debate. It is also a question which can never be answered. We can form our own opinions, whilst questioning those of others, but nobody can be proven right or wrong. Even the official ratings are just opinions. They are opinions based on rigorous and formulaic interpretation of the form, but opinions nevertheless. 

My own opinion on the matter is as follows. I think he is without doubt the most outrageously talented horse that i have ever seen. Whilst i would hesitate to label him the outright best horse ever, i am very hopeful that he will claim that crown outright during the races that are yet to come. I think i would conclude that he is the most talented horse ever, but perhaps not the most complete. His tendency to pull in his races, for example, means that he is unable to run to the full level of his ability. If these faults are remedied, and there is every chance that they will, then he will be a phenomenal horse. He is improving all the time and that is a scary thought to his potential opponents. The undisputed best horse in the world is still getting better. 

During the coming week i will offer readers an insight into the Frankel story, from his debut in August of last year right through to his truly brilliant victory in the Sussex Stakes, culminating in a preview of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on October 15th.