The Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe is the premier middle distance championship in Europe. It sees the very best horses, trainers and riders from all over the world descend on Longchamp for the first Sunday in October. The competition is always fierce but the glory that awaits the winner is without equal. Both in prize money and prestige the Arc is Europe's richest race. The winner will receive a cheque for just shy of £2million and an almost guaranteed fortune at stud. The list of past winners features some of the very greatest names from years gone by: Sea Bird, Dancing Brave and more recently Zarkava and Sea The Stars. The question is who will add their name to this illustrious roll of honour this year?
Sarafina
3rd in last year's renewal, but suffered significant trouble in running when nearly brought down round the home turn. Many people were convinced she was an unlucky loser and connections are determined that she should get her chance to right that wrong. There is no doubt all that she did not have a clear run but whether she would have won without interference is less certain. She has a potent turn of foot which will stand her in good stead but her hold-up style of running will always mean she is at risk of encountering trouble in running. She has won 3 from 4 this season in a campaign geared entirely around this very race. She was beaten in her Arc Trial last season by none other than Midday in the Prix Vermeille. This time she went to the Prix Foy and a battle with the boys and was victorious under hands and heels riding. She once again showed her instant acceleration and came through a gap that was at best on the tight side, showing she still has all the necessary battling qualities and bravery required to triumph in what can be a rough contest. She is sure to be right at the top of her game and warrants the utmost respect.
So You Think
A controlling share in this antipodean monster was purchased by Coolmore at the end of last season after a remarkable Australian campaign. He won 4 straight Group 1s over 10f in a very short period of time before finding the 16f Melbourne Cup beyond his stamina when a gallant 3rd under a big weight. He was proclaimed as the best horse they had seen for 40 years down under. His transferral to the Irish base of Aidan O'Brien at Ballydoyle was the subject of much anticipation but he brought with him a reputation of truly colossal proportions, one that it was always likely to prove impossible to meet. Nevertheless he started in emphatic style in the Northern hemisphere with two routine victories in Ireland before he ventured onto British shores for the first time with a crack at the Prince Of Wales' Stakes at Royal Ascot. He met with defeat, which was a shock to many, myself included. There were possible mitigating circumstances but it was a big dent because the superhorse was not supposed to be beaten, that was not part of the script. He returned to winning ways when defeating the Derby and Arc hero of 2010 Workforce in the Eclipse and then accounted for Snow Fairy in the Irish Champion Stakes by a hard fought 1/2 length. His form is right out of the top drawer but his reputation demanded more than just victory, we wanted victory in style, and on that account he has failed to deliver. But let that not diminish his achievements. There have been very few (if any) horses capable of scoring 5 Group 1 wins in the Southern Hemisphere and 3 in the Northern Hemisphere. I think his handy style of running will suit this race and think he is a threat to all. People have voiced stamina concerns with his campaign this year yet to see him stretch beyond 10f. But he travelled strongly in the Melbourne Cup for well over 12f and i cannot believe that it will be a problem for this giant horse.
Workforce
The winner of the Derby and Arc in a mixed 2010 campaign which saw him throw and absolute stinker in the King George at Ascot, where stablemate Harbinger trounced the field. He went to Longchamp with something to prove after his record breaking Derby performance and subsequent disappointment. But on his favoured softer ground he scythed through the field under a strong ride from Ryan Moore to break Sir Michael Stoute's Arc duck. This season, he won well enough at Sandown on his reappearance after avoiding a potential clash with So You Think in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. But racing fans could to see that epic battle in the Eclipse in July. On that occasion it was So You Think who proved too strong, winning by a convincing 1/2 length. But with the prospect of more improvement to come on softer ground and the additional 2 furlongs his reputation remained intact. His next stop was Ascot for the King George, the race which he had flopped in 12 months previously. This time around his performance was decent if unspectacular as he was readily held by Nathaniel in a farcical affair. It was reported after the race that he had been struck into by the ill-fated Rewilding and would head straight to the Arc. He arrives in Paris fresh and well after a lengthy break but this time around he will face unfavourable, and unseasonal, quick ground. The very soft he won on last year will be replaced with genuine good ground, which must do his chances no favours at all. Indeed, his trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, has voiced significant concerns in that regard. He is clearly capable of a winning performance but i can't help but feel that conditions are not in his favour, as they were last year.
The winner of the Derby and Arc in a mixed 2010 campaign which saw him throw and absolute stinker in the King George at Ascot, where stablemate Harbinger trounced the field. He went to Longchamp with something to prove after his record breaking Derby performance and subsequent disappointment. But on his favoured softer ground he scythed through the field under a strong ride from Ryan Moore to break Sir Michael Stoute's Arc duck. This season, he won well enough at Sandown on his reappearance after avoiding a potential clash with So You Think in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. But racing fans could to see that epic battle in the Eclipse in July. On that occasion it was So You Think who proved too strong, winning by a convincing 1/2 length. But with the prospect of more improvement to come on softer ground and the additional 2 furlongs his reputation remained intact. His next stop was Ascot for the King George, the race which he had flopped in 12 months previously. This time around his performance was decent if unspectacular as he was readily held by Nathaniel in a farcical affair. It was reported after the race that he had been struck into by the ill-fated Rewilding and would head straight to the Arc. He arrives in Paris fresh and well after a lengthy break but this time around he will face unfavourable, and unseasonal, quick ground. The very soft he won on last year will be replaced with genuine good ground, which must do his chances no favours at all. Indeed, his trainer, Sir Michael Stoute, has voiced significant concerns in that regard. He is clearly capable of a winning performance but i can't help but feel that conditions are not in his favour, as they were last year.
Galikova
If racing wants a story then the two half sisters of Goldikova and Galikova could provide a brilliant narrative on France's biggest day. Goldikova contests the Group 1 Prix De la Foret as she continues her build up to her attempt at an unprecedented 4th Breeders' Cup Mile. Galikova, unlike her sister, is well capable of staying this 12f trip. She started the season well with 2 wins in lower grade races before finding just Pouliches winner Golden Lilac too good in the Prix De Diane. Trainer Freddie Head reported himself disappointed with her showing which emphasises the regard in which she is held. She made amends when reversing the form with Golden Lilac in emphatic fashion in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume D'Ornano. She then took the Group 1 Prix Vermeille in good style over course and distance, proving beyond reasonable doubt that she stays this 12f trip. She has been the subject of strong and sustained support throughout this past week and clearly confidence surrounding her chances is high. My question mark is that her performances have been characterised by a long finishing run, as opposed to the electric turn of foot we see from Sarafina. My concern would be whether she possesses the tactical speed to get herself out of trouble and whether she can quicken to catch the leaders if she finds herself too far back. There is also the doubt about how she will fare against the boys for the first time. She is a worthy contender and should things fall her way, i can definitely see her being on the premises, especially in receipt of so much weight from many of the principles.
Meandre
A horse who had an unspectacular juvenile career and then a quiet start to this season. He never even managed to break his maiden at 2 and was then beaten twice in minor contests at Saint Cloud to begin his 3yo campaign. Got off the mark in another minor race at Maissons Lafitte before taking a Listed race at Longchamp. But that was hardly a sign of things to come as his odds of 10/1 in the Grand Prix De Paris suggest. But improve he did and he ran out a ready winner from Seville in second, with Reliable Man and Treasure Beach, winners of the Irish and French Derbies back in 3rd and 4th. The form looks solid on paper but i have my doubts. Reliable Man and Treasure Beach both seemed to run below par and Seville has hardly done the form any favours since then. He was then beaten into 2nd behind his old adversary Reliable Man in the Prix Niel, the premier trial for the Arc itself. He is one who will appreciate the firmer ground he will encounter at the weekend. Connections feel confident enough to have stumped up the £87,000 fee to supplement him on Thursday. I'm not convinced that his form is up to the required level. In addition his trainer Andre Fabre, the Arc master, had Pour Moi as his main hope for this race. It seems inconceivable to me that he would have two 3yos capable of winning the Arc in his stable, and for that reason alone i am sceptical of his chances. He is still open to improvement and with the ground in his favour he could well give them something to think about.
Reliable Man
Did not meet the racetrack until his 3yo campaign which has included wins in the Prix Du Jockey Club and the Prix Niel. He ran on well in the French Derby over 11f to suggest that a step up to 12f would bring about improvement. His supporters were to be disappointed as he disappointed when favourite for the Grand Prix De Paris when trying the trip for the first time. That day Meandre was a comfortable winner but it was reported that Reliable Man was below par. He retuned to form when running out a convincing winner of the Prix Niel, the most significant Arc trial. He hails from the same stable as antepost favourite Sarafina and it is assumed that the mare is their best chance of success. One other factor against him is the likely ground conditions. He is well known to prefer a bit of cut, and the quicker ground was sighted as a reason for his disappointment in the Grand Prix De Paris. If the rain does not come, which seems very unlikely, then he may be rerouted to Ascot for Champions' Day instead. On softer ground i think he would have a big chance but in the absence of those conditions his participation must be a concern. In the last 24 hours his price on Betfair has drifted enormously, seemingly confirming the doubts.
Masked Marvel
He ran out a very impressive winner of the St Leger on his latest start, breaking the track record into a strong headwind thanks to a relentless gallop set by his stablemate Buthelezi. That form puts him right in the mix here with well regarded horses beaten far and square in behind. He is clearly a horse that is improving all the while and connections must feel that he has at least a decent chance to have stumped up £87,000 to supplement him into the race. The stable's original contender, Nathaniel, was ruled out on account of the fast ground but that should not inconvenience him. I think he still has a bit to find to challenge the very best and with the St Leger just 3 weeks ago i suspect that he might still be feeling the effects of that monumental effort here.
Snow Fairy
A top class mare who took the English and Irish Oaks last season before taking 2 competitive Group 1s in Japan and Hong Kong in a fabulous season. She won the English Oaks in battling fashion from the subsequently disqualified Meeznah, before running away with the Irish version on softer ground, despite a well voiced preference for firmer. After defeat behind Midday in the Yorkshire Oaks and failing to stay in the St Leger her focus was turned to foreign targets, and with great success. A Group 1 double in the far east earned connections a small fortune and marked her out as a horse of the highest calibre. She has yet to get off the mark this season in a somewhat interrupted campaign but has shown marked improvement on each occasion. An intended crack at the Dubai Sheema Classic on World Cup night was set aside after she suffered a setback. Her reappearance was delayed until June when she was s disappointing 4th in the Prince Of Wales' behind So You Think. That effort was followed by defeat in the Nassau at Goodwood behind her old rival Midday. She then pushed So You Think all the way in the Irish Champion Stakes before going down by 1/2 a length. She showed top class form in the Autumn last year and it appears that she is coming to the boil at just the right time once more. This year's campaign has been disrupted by ground concerns but in her case because it is too soft rather than too firm. However this does mean that she arrives here fresher than most and it might just be that that counts in her favour. A very good mare and one not to be underestimated, especially with the ground coming right, and her appearing to be coming to the boil at just the right moment.
Hiruno D'Amour
One of two Japanese raiders who come to France seeking a first success in Europe's premier race. Won a Group 1 over 2m on his last start in Japan and them finished a close second in the Prix Foy behind antepost favourite Sarafina. Before that he had won a Group 2 over 10f confirming that he has both the requisite speed and stamina combination to throw down a challenge in this competitive heat. The main hope for Japan ahead of Nakayama Festa who finished a close up second in the race 12 months ago. There is no doubt that he possesses each way claims but it is difficult to assess his chance with any certainty. My own impression is that he might find a few too good, and a win record of 2/10 seems to confirm this.
Danedream
An intriguing contender from Germany. She started the season in unspectacular style but has improved out of all recognition, running out a very impressive winner on her last two starts. On both occasions she was taking on older males. They may not have been the best of the best but the manner of victory was striking. One possible concern is that she was only 5th when tried in France in the Group 2 Prix De Malleret behind Testosterone. That rival reopposes here but was comfortable beaten by Galikova in the Prix Vermeille last time. Whilst there can be little doubt she has improved since then i think she still has a bit to find to challenge the very best here.
St Nicholas Abbey
A precocious juvenile with a very tall reputation he has so far failed to live up to. A ready win in the Racing Post Trophy saw him start as a very warm favourite for the 2000 Guineas. He could only finish 6th and that would be his only start at 3 as he was ruled out of the Derby, for which he was still favourite, after suffering a setback. He was only 3rd on his seasonal reappearance in a Listed race which did not hold out much hope for him recovering his dented reputation. Improved dramatically when taking the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in impressive fashion on his next start and then ran down Midday in the closing stages to take the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom. Has since finished 3rd in the King George behind Nathaniel and Workforce and in the Prix Foy behind Sarafina and Hiruno D'Amour. But on both occasions he was inconvenienced by the steady pace and an end to end gallop can see his stamina put to good effect. He might be one to bely his big price and run into a place.
Masked Marvel
He ran out a very impressive winner of the St Leger on his latest start, breaking the track record into a strong headwind thanks to a relentless gallop set by his stablemate Buthelezi. That form puts him right in the mix here with well regarded horses beaten far and square in behind. He is clearly a horse that is improving all the while and connections must feel that he has at least a decent chance to have stumped up £87,000 to supplement him into the race. The stable's original contender, Nathaniel, was ruled out on account of the fast ground but that should not inconvenience him. I think he still has a bit to find to challenge the very best and with the St Leger just 3 weeks ago i suspect that he might still be feeling the effects of that monumental effort here.
Snow Fairy
A top class mare who took the English and Irish Oaks last season before taking 2 competitive Group 1s in Japan and Hong Kong in a fabulous season. She won the English Oaks in battling fashion from the subsequently disqualified Meeznah, before running away with the Irish version on softer ground, despite a well voiced preference for firmer. After defeat behind Midday in the Yorkshire Oaks and failing to stay in the St Leger her focus was turned to foreign targets, and with great success. A Group 1 double in the far east earned connections a small fortune and marked her out as a horse of the highest calibre. She has yet to get off the mark this season in a somewhat interrupted campaign but has shown marked improvement on each occasion. An intended crack at the Dubai Sheema Classic on World Cup night was set aside after she suffered a setback. Her reappearance was delayed until June when she was s disappointing 4th in the Prince Of Wales' behind So You Think. That effort was followed by defeat in the Nassau at Goodwood behind her old rival Midday. She then pushed So You Think all the way in the Irish Champion Stakes before going down by 1/2 a length. She showed top class form in the Autumn last year and it appears that she is coming to the boil at just the right time once more. This year's campaign has been disrupted by ground concerns but in her case because it is too soft rather than too firm. However this does mean that she arrives here fresher than most and it might just be that that counts in her favour. A very good mare and one not to be underestimated, especially with the ground coming right, and her appearing to be coming to the boil at just the right moment.
Hiruno D'Amour
One of two Japanese raiders who come to France seeking a first success in Europe's premier race. Won a Group 1 over 2m on his last start in Japan and them finished a close second in the Prix Foy behind antepost favourite Sarafina. Before that he had won a Group 2 over 10f confirming that he has both the requisite speed and stamina combination to throw down a challenge in this competitive heat. The main hope for Japan ahead of Nakayama Festa who finished a close up second in the race 12 months ago. There is no doubt that he possesses each way claims but it is difficult to assess his chance with any certainty. My own impression is that he might find a few too good, and a win record of 2/10 seems to confirm this.
Danedream
An intriguing contender from Germany. She started the season in unspectacular style but has improved out of all recognition, running out a very impressive winner on her last two starts. On both occasions she was taking on older males. They may not have been the best of the best but the manner of victory was striking. One possible concern is that she was only 5th when tried in France in the Group 2 Prix De Malleret behind Testosterone. That rival reopposes here but was comfortable beaten by Galikova in the Prix Vermeille last time. Whilst there can be little doubt she has improved since then i think she still has a bit to find to challenge the very best here.
St Nicholas Abbey
A precocious juvenile with a very tall reputation he has so far failed to live up to. A ready win in the Racing Post Trophy saw him start as a very warm favourite for the 2000 Guineas. He could only finish 6th and that would be his only start at 3 as he was ruled out of the Derby, for which he was still favourite, after suffering a setback. He was only 3rd on his seasonal reappearance in a Listed race which did not hold out much hope for him recovering his dented reputation. Improved dramatically when taking the Ormonde Stakes at Chester in impressive fashion on his next start and then ran down Midday in the closing stages to take the Group 1 Coronation Cup at Epsom. Has since finished 3rd in the King George behind Nathaniel and Workforce and in the Prix Foy behind Sarafina and Hiruno D'Amour. But on both occasions he was inconvenienced by the steady pace and an end to end gallop can see his stamina put to good effect. He might be one to bely his big price and run into a place.
Nakayama Festa
Finished second in the race last year when just going down to Workforce in the closing stages. That form puts him in the mix but has only had the one start this season when last of 4 in the Prix Foy after suffering a setback in the Japan Cup at the back end of last year. This has been the target since then and he will no doubt strip fitter for his reappearance but he still has question marks to answer.
Treasure Beach
Winner of the Irish Derby after finishing a close second to the ill fated Pour Moi in the English version at Epsom. He was then only 4th in the Grand Prix De Paris but it is possible that it was one race too many. He then returned to form after a little break to take a Group 1 in America, although the opposition was nowhere near the calibre he will face here. I think he is decent but unspectacular and will need to improve a good deal to figure in this.
Testosterone
Winner of the Group 2 Prix De Malleret with Danedream back in 5th but then found Galikova too strong when tried in Group 1 company in the Prix Vermeille for the first time. She has shown a good level of ability but it takes an exceptional filly to beat the best of the boys and there is little to suggest that she is up to the task.
Shareta
Another who finished in behind Galikova in the Prix Vermeille and no reason to suggest that she can reverse the form with that rival. And that leaves her with plenty to find to figure in a race such as this.
Silver Pond
A decent animal but not up to the required level on what we have seen so far. He was only 1 and a 1/2 lengths behind Sarafina in the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud but in reality the winner was very comfortably on top at the finish. Will need a substantial career best to figure in this race.
Conclusion
If you had asked me who would win the Arc at the start of the year i would have confidently said So You Think, provided that he runs. He does run but now i am not so sure. I was convinced that he was the real deal after convincing and impressive wins in weak contests in Ireland. It was a shock and a disappointment when he was beaten at Royal Ascot and he has not quite lived up to my own lofty expectations, despite a hatrick of Group 1 victories. His form is right out of the top drawer, he is tough and has all the necessary attributes. His stamina at this trip is unproven but i do not anticipate it being a problem. Sarafina will be a big danger but i don't think her form is up to the level to make her a 7/2 favourite. Galikova is probably the best of the 3yos but it takes a very very good filly to beat the boys and i'm not convinced she is quite up to that level. Additionally, Freddie Head has suggested that the Vermeille was her primary target which must be a concern. Last years winner Workforce was possibly fortunate to triumph and a stronger renewal this time may prove beyond him. The French 3yo colts of Reliable Man and Meandre appear much of a muchness and i find it difficult to fancy either, though preference is for Reliable Man but the ground remains a concern and his participation is still in some doubt. Masked Marvel is a threat but the proximity of his huge St Leger effort is a worry. Snow Fairy is a very good mare but i feel will come up short against the very best. The Japanese challenge looks vulnerable and Danedream's form has an unsubstantial look to it.
And therefore, almost by process of elimination, i arrive at So You Think. His draw in 13 is far from ideal but i do not think it is disastrous either. There are no front runners in the field and i think this may prove crucial to his chance. He has more than enough pace to lay up handy despite his poor draw and with stablemates St Nicholas Abbey and Treasure Beach drawn in 7 and 12 he should not have any trouble taking a good position early in the race. I would not be at all surprised to see the Ballydoyle contingent try and boss the race from the front, and i feel it may be a tactic that pays dividends, provided they can get it right. St Nicholas Abbey and Treasure Beach can set a decent, but not ridiculous gallop, and So You Think can sit in behind that pair until the straight before kicking from the front. And in that scenario it will take a good one to give him ground and catch him up the relatively short Longchamp straight.
I was hoping that he would be a definite selection but i cannot have the necessary confidence anymore, after an excellent but still underwhelming season. The draw is not ideal, but the ground will be in his favour and i would be surprised if the trip was a problem. I think the Australian import possesses the strongest claims, in what is a very open renewal, and he is fancied to confirm his greatness alongside the very finest names in the sport.
If you had asked me who would win the Arc at the start of the year i would have confidently said So You Think, provided that he runs. He does run but now i am not so sure. I was convinced that he was the real deal after convincing and impressive wins in weak contests in Ireland. It was a shock and a disappointment when he was beaten at Royal Ascot and he has not quite lived up to my own lofty expectations, despite a hatrick of Group 1 victories. His form is right out of the top drawer, he is tough and has all the necessary attributes. His stamina at this trip is unproven but i do not anticipate it being a problem. Sarafina will be a big danger but i don't think her form is up to the level to make her a 7/2 favourite. Galikova is probably the best of the 3yos but it takes a very very good filly to beat the boys and i'm not convinced she is quite up to that level. Additionally, Freddie Head has suggested that the Vermeille was her primary target which must be a concern. Last years winner Workforce was possibly fortunate to triumph and a stronger renewal this time may prove beyond him. The French 3yo colts of Reliable Man and Meandre appear much of a muchness and i find it difficult to fancy either, though preference is for Reliable Man but the ground remains a concern and his participation is still in some doubt. Masked Marvel is a threat but the proximity of his huge St Leger effort is a worry. Snow Fairy is a very good mare but i feel will come up short against the very best. The Japanese challenge looks vulnerable and Danedream's form has an unsubstantial look to it.
And therefore, almost by process of elimination, i arrive at So You Think. His draw in 13 is far from ideal but i do not think it is disastrous either. There are no front runners in the field and i think this may prove crucial to his chance. He has more than enough pace to lay up handy despite his poor draw and with stablemates St Nicholas Abbey and Treasure Beach drawn in 7 and 12 he should not have any trouble taking a good position early in the race. I would not be at all surprised to see the Ballydoyle contingent try and boss the race from the front, and i feel it may be a tactic that pays dividends, provided they can get it right. St Nicholas Abbey and Treasure Beach can set a decent, but not ridiculous gallop, and So You Think can sit in behind that pair until the straight before kicking from the front. And in that scenario it will take a good one to give him ground and catch him up the relatively short Longchamp straight.
I was hoping that he would be a definite selection but i cannot have the necessary confidence anymore, after an excellent but still underwhelming season. The draw is not ideal, but the ground will be in his favour and i would be surprised if the trip was a problem. I think the Australian import possesses the strongest claims, in what is a very open renewal, and he is fancied to confirm his greatness alongside the very finest names in the sport.
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