Free Friday At Newbury

We have had to wait nearly a week for the rearranged Super Saturday fixture but it is well worth waiting for. The stars are out in force as trainers seek to put the finishing touches to Cheltenham preparations for some of their biggest names. It is a credit to all involved that such a quality card has been salvaged from disaster after the freezing weather last weekend. Let us hope that the sun shines and a big crowd can enjoy a fantastic card for free courtesy of Betfair. 


12.10 - Game Spirit Chase (Grade 2) 2m1f 


French Opera, winner of this race 12 months ago, heads the field and is forced to concede weight all round. He is a consistent performer but just below the top level and the fact that Barry Geraghty has chosen Henderson's other horse tells you all you need to know. 


Sprinter Sacre, the current Arkle favourite, will be the centre of attention in the opener. He has taken to fences really well in two starts, jumping flamboyantly on each occasion and coming home an easy winner. He took the notable scalp of Peddlers Cross at Kempton last time, and, even if that rival was obviously below par, the ease of success was most taking. He will take all the beating in this and 4/7 looks fair. 

Zaynar has shown something of a return to form in recent runs, not least when a really impressive winner of a good race at Ascot. Has since run slightly disappointingly in 4th in an Ascot handicap. The drop back to 2m looks unlikely to be in his favour. 


Hold Fast is second in the betting for Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls. He is taking the Master Minded route ahead of a possible tilt at the Champion Chase should he prove himself up to the task in this. He is progressive and not one to dismiss lightly but I suspect he is flattered by the Sandown result and he still needs to find a good deal more to figure here. 


I'm So Lucky is a regular in the big handicap races but tends to fall short when tried at the top level. It would be disappointing if he were to win but he has raced Sizing Europe, Somersby and Finian's Rainbow this season so might present a nice handle to see how the favourite compares to them. 


Kinkeel is rated just 71 and is well outclassed. 


12.40 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) 3m 


Long Run, the defending Gold Cup Champion, heads the field on the back of two defeats this season. I doubt many would have put money on Long Run being without a win by mid- February at the start of the season. However, a rejuvenated Kauto Star has proved an impossible nut to crack in both the Betfair Chase and the King George. Fortunately he meets nothing of that calibre in this but still must concede weight to decent animals. I doubt he will be suited to a small field race and might just be more vulnerable than many would think. I would be happy to take him on, even though I expect him to win, but the race lacks the type of horse I was after. It could be that he makes a price of 4/7 look very silly indeed for all that I have my doubts about his suitability for such a race.

The Giant Bolster is a horse I quite like and had been knocking on the door (or usually the floor) in big races until everything finally fell into place at Cheltenham last month. He was a most impressive winner that day but this is tougher still and I am yet to be convinced that he wants 3m. He is also penalised for that success which will not help. 


Burton Port has been on the sidelines since finishing a close second to Diamond Harry in the Hennessy back in 2010. He had previously enjoyed a fantastic novice campaign when he continually surprised his trainer and upstaged better fancied stablemates, Long Run included. He is without doubt a high class horse and if fit and well for his debut could go well. He might just be able to control the race and I fancy that he might be the one to give the favourite most to do. A pleasing effort here would put him nicely on track for the Cheltenham Gold Cup next month. 


Chapel House is totally out of his depth. 


Tidal Bay is talented but mercurial. His jumping can be deliberate at times and I can't help but feel that he is best chasing a strong gallop because he stays well and can often find himself further back than ideal in his races. If he runs to his best he is capable of going well but I'm not sure this is the race for him. 


What A Friend is similar to Tidal Bay in that he is seen to best effect chasing a strong pace, as seen when a fast finishing 4th in the Gold Cup last season. On official ratings he is entitled to give the favourite most to do in receipt of 10lbs for an 11 length beating there. It would be no great surprise if he were to give Long Run a race but he wouldn't be my choice at the prices.


A double on the Henderson duo in the first two races, Sprinter Sacre and Long Run, pays 2.65/1 which looks fair and worth taking. Burton Port might be worth an EW bet at 8/1 or bigger, however, I have a horrible feeling Pricewise will tip him up tomorrow and destroy the price. 


2pts Win Double Long Run (4/7) and Sprinter Sacre (4/7) with William Hill
1pt Win Burton Port at 9/1 with 888 Sport


1.15 - Betfair Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m

Brampour (33/1) - Possibly a slight disappointment last season when only 9th at Cheltenham and Aintree. Showed the benefit of a breathing operation with convincing handicap wins at Ascot and in the Greatwood at Cheltenham. A fair 3rd in the International Hurdle up to Graded company and then down the field just a week later in the Ladbroke when probably finding the run coming too soon. Has had a nice break and has to enter the reckoning but  it would be a big surprise if he can give weight and a beating to stablemate Zarkandar who had him 11 lengths behind in the Triumph.

Zarkandar (3/1) - The top juvenile last season having been unbeaten in 3 starts, including the Adonis, the Triumph and the Anniversary. Rated 154 after his Cheltenham win but received the good fortune of being dropped 3lbs for a below par effort at Aintree. That was more than excusable considering it was his 3rd run in 6 weeks and he had an abscess to contend with. Nicholls has consistently maintained that he is not only the best of his current batch of Champion Hurdle contenders (Rock On Ruby, Brampour, Celestial Halo) but that he is his best chance he has ever had in the race. If that is the case then he looks very well treated off a mark of 151. The Triumph Hurdle form has worked out really well and he was an impressive winner that day. A few have suggested that he looked outpaced at stages during the race but I totally disagree. To me he looked green and lacking experience because whenever Daryl Jacob asked him to pick up he did so readily. I think he was a comfortable winner of a race that is working out exceptionally well. I think he can improve greatly on what he has shown and with the added benefit of a breathing operation I expect him to go well. The second concern is whether he will be primed for the occasion. Quite obviously Nicholls will have left a little to work on because he wants to win the Champion Hurdle not a (admittedly valuable) handicap. However, I find it impossible to believe that he will not be ready to do himself justice. If this was just a stepping stone to the Champion Hurdle then surely it would make sense for Daryl Jacob, almost certainly his big race pilot, to keep the ride. The fact that Ruby Walsh takes over tells me that they are here to win. Nicholls has played down expectations which is understandable but talk of being happy with a first 6 finish seem misplaced. I would guess that connections will be mightily disappointed with anything other than a win given his apparently lenient handicap mark. He looks well treated, I think he will be ready, so everything looks in place for a big run.

Get Me Out Of Here (20/1) - Winner of this race back in 2009 before a fast finishing 2nd in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Could only finish 8th off a 1lb lower mark last year but was then a terrific 2nd in the County Hurdle to Final Approach. That came off a mark of 148 so 151 should be feasible. His form this season has been over further and he might just want more of a stamina test these days. You couldn't discount him but the fact that Tony McCoy has gone elsewhere suggests that he isn't the McManus first string.

Final Approach (12/1) - Just got up under an inspired Ruby Walsh in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last March. He was an eyecatching 4th behind Voler La Vedette in December over 2m4f when travelling well before tiring. He then won a weak race back at 2m in convincing fashion. He is 11lbs higher than his County win and, for all that he is entitled to still be improving, there might just be one or two better treated.

Soldatino (14/1) - The Triumph Hurdle winner back in 2010 when he was the only horse to run down the valiant front-running Barazan. Was beaten in three handicaps off this mark last year including a 5th in this race. He was one of the Pricewise selections for the race and would have a chance if he has learnt to settle better which would enable him to be ridden closer to the pace. Reported to have been working well, and settling well, and could well go close.

Darlan (10/1) - Unbeaten in 4 races but a mark of 146 looks stiff enough, especially since he has now been dropped to an official rating of 143 since the weights were published. Nicky Henderson was furious with his mark and I think it is easy to see why. He is allowed to take his chance despite being 3lb 'wrong' and is the choice of AP McCoy but makes little appeal at the prices.

Via Galilei (33/1) - A consistent sort who keeps running well in these races without getting his head in front. The downside of that is that the handicapper is given little opportunity to relent and he looks held at the weights. Not impossible that he could run well but I fancy that others are better treated. 


Sailors Warn (25/1) - Chased home smart sorts Steps To Freedom and Unaccompanied before finishing 7th in the Ladbroke. I fancied him that day and I can see him going well of a 2lb lower mark. Arguable overpriced on the best of his form.

Sire De Grugy (14/1) - The apparent Moore first string and the second antepost Pricewise selection. He was a well beaten 6th of 8 on his seasonal debut at Chepstow on heavy ground but that effort can be forgiven. He chased home Topolski at Aintree last season but that one has done little for the form since having failed to beat a single rival home in 3 starts (1 flat and two jumps). The second hasn't set the world alight either and a mark of 143 in this (official mark of 141) looks a tough ask on what he has shown so far. Formlines through Empire Levant would give him every chance but I think that horse has improved hugely this season and he will need to do likewise to figure.

Desert Cry (40/1) - All out to win a weakish handicap at Haydock early in the year and an 8lbs rise seems to have stopped him in his tracks. Was well beaten in the Ladbroke and then 5th at Musselburgh but this looks tougher again. Hard to see him getting involved off this mark.

Third Intention (12/1) - Well beaten behind Brampour twice this season but showed an improved effort to chase home Triumph fancy Ranjaan at Taunton last time. This is a step up and he appears to be coming to form at the right time. Will need to settle but entitled to go well.

Empire Levant (16/1) - A good juvenile but always looked a weak sort who would improve for another year. He was beaten by both Third Intention and Sire De Grugy last season but looks a different horse this time around. Absolutely destroyed a weak looking handicap field by 29 lengths over course and distance back in November and then chased home stablemate Rock On Ruby in the Gerry Fielden just 2 days later. Has since gone up 12lbs but that looks fair given that Rock On Ruby was arguably unfortunate to go down by a 1/4 length to Binocular in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle and is now rated 20lb higher on 165, the 3rd horse (beaten 4 and 1/2 lengths) was Raya Star who went on to win the Ladbroke (now rated 139), the 5th Alarazi was 3rd in the Ladbroke and so on. The form looks strong and a 12lb rise looks within his compass. The plan was originally to go chasing with him but the fact that he stays over hurdles suggests that connections still feel there is a big prize in him.

Alarazi (25/1) - An impressive winner of the Imperial Cup and has been knocking on the door ever since. A close up 3rd in the Ladbroke when just collared close home and could still go well off his current mark. Disappointed over course and distance in the Gerry Fielden when a well beaten 5th but has been targeted at this all season. Could go well but just think he might be more exposed than some.

Raya Star (10/1) - 3rd in the Gerry Fielden before winning the Ladbroke in what has already been a productive season. Up 5lbs for that success which looks reasonable with more improvement to come off a stronger pace. A progressive horse and it's not hard to see him going well.

Ciceron (28/1) - I tipped him up at a huge price for the Ladbroke Hurdle but I missed the boat by one race as he won at Sandown next time out having been tipped up by Pricewise and Paul Kealy and subsequently heavily backed. It was nice to know that I wasn't barking up completely the wrong tree. Beaten upped in trip at Ascot next time and you suspect that he might have done his winning for a little while.

Olofi (9/1) - A slightly unfortunate 2nd in the Greatwood Hurdle and was travelling well when seeking compensation over course and distance in December before falling 2 out. He looks to be on a winnable mark and must enter calculations.

Rigidity (40/1) - 2nd in the Ladbroke but only 6th next time in the race won by Celestial Halo. He was unfancied for the Ladbroke and it is possible that he benefited from being close to a steady pace. Gets in here on the minimum weight of 10-00 and he could go well but others look to have stronger claims.

Ericht (25/1) - Chased home Steps To Freedom and Prospect Wells in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham on his hurdling bow but has disappointed twice since at Newbury and Huntingdon, both times as a short priced favourite. Was clearly well regarded and if he bounced back to form then he could be nicely weighted. This looks a tough ask for a horse with question marks but he must be respected.

Abergavenny (25/1) - Unbeaten in 3 minor hurdles races before a cracking run in 3rd in the Greatwood. Then only 10th in the Ladbroke and it might be that he wants a touch further over hurdles (never competitive but "plugged on" in the Cesarewitch over 2m2f on the Flat). That might explain his poor showing in the Ladbroke because the steady pace would not have helped. A stronger gallop here might see him to better effect. 


Double Ross (66/1) - Has been keeping high company in novice hurdles this season, chasing home Fingal Bay, Cinders And Ashes and Broadbackbob. He is 6lbs wrong at the weights and it will be interesting to see how he figures given how he ties in a few of the novice formlines. 

Conclusion 

If Zarkandar is the Champion Hurdle contender that I think he is then he must go very close to winning this off a mark of 151. I think he could be a stone well in and even if he does improve for the run, as I'm sure he will, I think he has enough in hand to win. The booking of Ruby Walsh indicates that they are here to win, and not just give him a prep for the Champion Hurdle. That does not mean it is an easy task because he will be giving weight to a lot of progressive horses, not least his stablemate Empire Levant. His 12lb rise for his two Newbury efforts looks fair and he is entitled to go well for Daryl Jacob. Others for the shortlist include Raya Star, Olofi, Soldatino and Sailors Warn, and, as you would expect, there are plenty lurking at bigger prices who might be capable of springing a surprise if everything went their way. I have already backed Zarkandar at 9/2 antepost (if you haven't backed him already you have probably missed the boat) and Empire Levant at 18/1 (still looks fair value at 16/1) and am delighted with both bets. Raya Star would be my 3rd selection at 10/1 EW. I think the Gerry Fielden form is strong so I will go for a repeat performance with Zarkandar taking the place of Rock On Ruby this time around.


1. Zarkandar

2. Empire Levant
3. Raya Star
 
5pts Win Zarkandar at 9/2 with William Hill (Antepost)
1pt EW Empire Levant at 18/1 with Stan James (Antepost)
1pt EW Raya Star at 10/1 with Coral 


1.50 - Novices' Hurdle 2m 

All The Aces heads the field on the back of two really solid efforts over course and distance. He found only the much more experienced Prospect Wells too good on his hurdling bow before beating Champion Bumper 2nd Destroyer Deployed next time. Neither rival has done the form any favours since but he won easily the last time and is capable of improvement. He was a smart horse on the flat and it might be that he is seen to best effect on quicker ground at the Festival. This looks the ideal race as a stepping stone because if he wins then he is fully entitled to run in either the Supreme or Neptune and if he doesn't then he must be a major player in either the County or Coral of what looks a fair mark. 

Colour Squadron is the form horse having thrown away the Grade 1 Tolworth by hanging in the closing stages. He had previously found It's A Gimme too good first time before winning a good race with Montbazon in second. He is thoroughly likeable but I'm not convinced the form is that strong given that both Captain Conan and It's A Gimme have been disappointing since. 


Montbazon is highly regarded by trainer Alan King and it is easy to see why with high class Bumper form to his name plus two smart efforts over hurdles. He found Colour Squadron too good in testing ground over course and distance and is sure to improve for a firmer surface. He won't get that here but it will be very interesting to see how he fares. 


Vulcanite finished behind Tetlami at Kempton over Christmas before making amends in facile style at Southwell last month. Another well regarded horse who was useful on the flat. He is improving and jumps nicely and is entitled to plenty of respect given that the peerless Tom Segal has already nominated him for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Festival.


They are 4 really interesting horses and it would be a shock if none of them were able to win. I'm not convinced that any of their form is that strong as yet but I would hope that the winner here would go to the Festival with legitimate claims in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. It is not a race I intended to bet on, however, the 3/1 about Colour Squadron looks to be the best value on offer and looks worth a small interest.


1pt Win Colour Squadron at 3/1 with Victor Chandler


2.25 - Handicap Hurdle 3m 

Gullinbursti looks well weighted on his second to Rocky Creek at Doncaster in a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle. He clearly stays well and is firmly on the upgrade. He has been priced up accordingly as a strong 7/2 favourite but he rates by far the most likely winner. Stow won this race 12 months ago and despite recent uninspiring form figures must be respected in his bid for a repeat.


2pts Win Gullinbursti at 7/2 with Boylesports


2.55 - Scilly Isles Novices' Chase (Grade 1) 2m4f 


For Non Stop has yet to break his duck over fences but has run some smashing races in defeat. He chased home Al Ferof in a Grade 1 at Sandown, and Cue Card in a good race at Newbury with Walkon back in 3rd. The extra distance should help here and he must have every chance of getting off the mark. 

Lancetto is a decent novice chaser but has been beaten in handicaps off his current mark of 137 and will need to find a new level to figure in such exalted company. 


Micheal Flips was yet another horse tipped up here at a big price only to go and win next time out. He was a smart handicapper over hurdles and suspect that same might apply over fences meaning he will find a few too good in this.


Mossley jumped poorly on his chasing debut at Kempton and was then out-gunned by RSA fancy Join Together up the Cheltenham hill over an extended 3m trip. He drops back 6f in trip here and I fancy a few of these to have too much toe for him.


Our Mick won a competitive handicap at Kempton (2nd won well since) over Christmas in good style. He then went on to win a Grade 2 at Wetherby last time but made heavy weather of it before eventually winning in good style. He warrants respect but I fancy that he'll find a couple too good. 


Picture This is touted as a possible for the 4m National Hunt Chase and is likely to find this test much too sharp. He looks to be the Nicholls third strong and is readily opposed. The experience will stand him in good stead should he head to Cheltenham because he is currently a touch short of miles on the clock. 


Walkon created a great impression when readily accounting for Zaynar and Notus De La Tour at Exeter on his chasing debut. Both of those have since boosted the form but Walkon himself was a disappointment at Newbury behind Cue Card and For Non Stop at this track. Alan King thinks that was down to the trip and the extra 2f should help here. However, he regressed from a promising seasonal debut last season and it might be the same story this time too. If he bounced back to his Exeter form he would be entitled to go very close indeed. 


Cedre Bleu is the choice of Ruby Walsh after a pleasing debut when battling back to beat Bellvano over an inadequate 2m. It looks like the step up in trip will suit and he jumped well in the main, though did lose confidence when bumped down the back straight. He has been given plenty of time to fill his frame and it is notable that Nicholls pitches him straight into Grade 1 company. He has a good bit to find on form but must be respected. 


Pacha Du Polder is another Nicholls inmate who won well at Warwick last time. He was well beaten by Zaynar at Ascot the time before when finding things happening too quickly for him. He could go well but others are preferred.


On the formbook this looks a straight match between For Non Stop and Walkon with preference for the former who looks well capable of taking such a prize. However, I can't get away from the fact that Nicholls decides to pitch his youngster Cedre Bleu straight in at the highest level. I know he thinks a lot of this horse and must think he will go well to take such a risk. Odds of 6/1 with William Hill would make appeal as an EW bet in a decent contest. 


1pt Win For Non Stop at 10/3 with Ladbrokes
1pt Win Cedre Bleu at 6/1 with William Hill


3.30 - Bumper (Listed) 2m 

An intriguing contest featuring the well touted brother to Grands Crus, Gevrey Chambertin. Tom Scudamore suggested on the Morning Line recently that Grands Crus might not even be the best in his family this time next year. Whilst such talk is probably a little ahead of the game it is clear that the Pipe team hold him in high regard. He could hardly have been more impressive on his debut when winning by 30 lengths in heavy ground at Ffos Las. This will be entirely different with some good sorts in opposition, including well touted horses from all the big stables. It will be interesting to see how he fares.