Trials And Tribulations

Trials Day looked to hold Festival clues aplenty, with the 2nd tier Gold Cup contenders doing battle in the Argento to see if anything could throw down a serious challenge to Long Run and Kauto Star, Big Buck's attempting to see off all-comers for the 15th successive time, a terrific Triumph Hurdle trial, a few promising prospects in the Neptune Trial, plus three competitive handicaps.

The Triumph Hurdle Trial provided a thrilling finish, with Pearl Swan just getting the better of Grumeti at the line, only for the result to be reversed in the Stewards' Room. Whether he should have lost the race and whether Ruby Walsh should have got a three day ban are issues for another debate, though Walsh did indicate that he would appeal the ban which rules him out of Betfair Hurdle day at Newbury and the Irish Hennessy.  What is for certain is that he improved hugely on his previous form, a novice hurdle win just nine days ago. Nicholls also appears confident that there is more to come, with this very much a fact finding mission, and he will go straight to the Triumph now. Grumeti was bidding to atone for his mishap at Newbury ten days previously and looked to be travelling the best until Pearl Swan came to challenge. He battled well and connections suggested that a sounder surface would suit him better. He will have one more run before re-opposing in the Triumph. Hollow Tree ran an honourable race and he is likely to give another good account of himself in March, if falling just a little short of the very top level. The disappointment was Baby Mix, so impressive at the course back in December, who trailed in last of the six runners. It is possible that he is flattered by that performance and he has questions to answer now. Both the front two remain open to improvement but my suspicion is that both might find a couple too good in March. Dildar makes his long awaited debut at Taunton on Tuesday, and there is still the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton, the key trial in recent years, to come. It is entirely plausible that we have yet to see the Triumph winner on the track. Given that Pearl Swan is now favourite in places, and that Nicholls appears to regard Dildar as the best of his, the last named might be the one to 'do a Zarkandar' this year.

In the 2m5f Novices' Handicap Chase Bless The Wings ran out a convincing winner. In the process he gave a big boost to the form of Our Mick, who had him well beaten at Kempton over Christmas last time. Our Mick has since gone on to claim a Grade 2 at Haydock so the form was there for all to see. The only surprise was that he was allowed to start as big as 13/2. Favourite was the Nicholls trained That'lldoboy, who came to grief three out when making progress on the outside. He had fallen at Kempton behind Our Mick last time too. It was a race marred by jumping errors with two other fallers, and three unseated riders. It is possible that a few of these will have a say at the Festival in the 2m5f Novices' Handicap Chase but very hard to come to any firm conclusions with so many unknown quantities.

The Giant Bolster won the preceding race 12 months ago and provided something of a demolition job in the 2m5f Grade 3 Handicap Chase this season. His chasing career has been blighted by fencing mishaps but he jumped adequately at the head of affairs for an impressive success. He had always promised to win a handicap of this nature, and I had backed him to do so in the past, but, needless to say, he was free from the weight of my money this time and fairly bolted up! This win was off a mark of 145 and a significant rise in the weights will be in the offing. His likely mark will put him in the picture for graded races given that he must go up at least 10lbs (quite possibly more). He was given quotes of 66/1 for the Gold Cup but I would be more interested for the Ryanair for which he was currently unquoted. If he could find a nice rhythm in front, and so long as his jumping held up, he could well run a nice race. It is worth remembering that Great Endeavour won the Paddy Power off a 2lb higher mark of 147 by 7 lengths and is no bigger than 14/1 for the Ryanair. I have no idea what the plan would be, and no idea whether he was hugely flattered by the result, but the manner of victory was hugely impressive, and his jumping was still only adequate, meaning there might yet be more improvement to come. The honourable Poquelin ran another brave race in defeat at his favourite track, showing he is still no back number but the rest were largely disappointing (mainly due to the hugely impressive winner). Aerial, as I suspected, looks a bit high in the weights.

The Argento Chase promised to throw up a potential rival to Kauto Star and Long Run's vice-like grip on the Gold Cup. The defection of Grands Crus was a disappointment and one I was struggling to explain. By far the best reason I have heard is that a convincing success would have forced Pipe's hand into running him in the Gold Cup. I have always maintained that the Gold Cup idea appears more to do with the owners than the trainer. This would fit in nicely with the explanation above. In his absence I was fairly confident that Captain Chris could beat the remainder. In the end that proved about as wide of the mark as it is possible to be, with the Hobbs horse putting in possibly the strangest performance I have ever seen. He jumped big at the first, but thereafter hurled himself right handed at his fences in the manner of a horse that had completely lost the plot. He was pulled up as if something was amiss, but later reported to be fine. I find that very hard to believe because that was surely the performance of a horse with problems, whether they be physical or mental, and I will need to see a much improved effort before I could back him again. It was a little concerning that connections were eyeing up the Ascot Chase, just 3 weeks away, for his next start because if he were mine a thorough investigation would be of paramount importance. And by thorough I mean bone scans/x-rays and anything else the vets could throw at him. His Arkle success promised so much because I felt certain he would be seen to better effect over further. His King George run was adequate, if a little disappointing, but his performance here was alarming and worrying in equal measure. I can only hope that he gets back on track to fulfil the potential that I am sure he has. With Captain Chris out of the race it turned into a race between those who had already proven themselves not up to the task (in my opinion of course because plenty of others would argue that Captain Chris had done the same in the King George). Diamond Harry looked light in the paddock and the argument that he would improve for the run looked as fanciful as I suggested. I suspect he will always be seen best when fresh given that he doesn't hold his condition well. If he were mine I would be priming him for a repeat bid in the Hennessy in November first time out. Time For Rupert has always been overrated on the back of chasing home Big Buck's in the World Hurdle back in 2010 and his bubble was finally burst good and proper in this. Connections even suggested that they might give up on the Gold Cup idea with the horse clearly some way below the required level. He is slow and soft ground and a proper test of stamina will see him to best effect. Knockara Beau ran his usual honest race in 3rd, staying on strongly past beaten horses. He seems to stay all day, and handle good ground. His mark of  140 (assuming he doesn't get raised but he might well do) would make him attractive in the 3m Festival handicap and in the Scottish National. Tidal Bay briefly looked threatening but two awkward jumps at the last two fences put paid to his chances. A bid at the Bowl at Aintree was suggested with connections certain he is not good enough for the Gold Cup. Any Currency and The Sawyer were outclassed. That leaves us with just two more to discuss, the winner Midnight Chase, and Little Josh. Midnight Chase is an honourable horse but is at best a 160 (or thereabouts) performer which leaves him with a good deal (20lbs on official ratings) to find to challenge the market leaders in the Gold Cup. He is worth his chance in the field but 16/1 or even 20/1 makes little appeal for me. I can see him filling 4th or 5th as he did last year. The eyecatcher in the race was undoubtedly Little Josh. He travelled best of all until his stamina blatantly gave way rounding the home turn. He is one to consider for the 2m5f Handicap at the Festival, or even the Ryanair (33/1). With any luck the Gold Cup and Grand National ambitions voiced by his trainer will be long forgotten by now given he was as blatant a non-stayer as your are ever likely to see. This race is supposed to be a Gold Cup Trial and I suppose it was to a certain extent. In my opinion it just proved that none of these are up to the required level for chasing's Blue Riband. However, it did provide plenty of clues for other, lesser, Festival targets. 

Broadbackbob was a warm order for the Neptune Novices' Hurdle but had to give best to the Alan King trained maiden Batonnier. This success completed a treble on the card for the King/Hutchinson combo and no doubt Choc Thornton is cursing his luck on the sidelines. He is fast improving but had been no match for the sidelined Barbatos on New Year's Day, who in turn had been no match for Fingal Bay and Simonsig at Sandown (admittedly on unsuitable soft ground). This race did more to strengthen the appearance of that form than anything else. Secret Edge ran a pleasing race in 3rd as a juvenile and might be one to consider for the Fred Winter at the Festival. The winner is on an upward curve but I suspect he still has a bit to find with the market principles in the Neptune at the Festival. That fact is reflected in his odds, with him a best priced 20/1 for that race. Hard To Swallow ran another pleasing race in 4th but lost a few lengths on the winner from the New Year form behind Barbatos. I still think that the Sandown form with Fingal Bay and Simonsig is the best on offer and fancy that the 2nd that day might give the favourite something to think about on better ground. He looks a fantastic EW price at 14/1. This is still his intended target, even if I would fancy him strongly for the Supreme as well. I'll be backing wherever he goes.

Next up the Cleeve Hurdle. I can add very little to what has already been said about the unbeatable Big Buck's. He is astonishing, brilliant, clinical, delightful, extraordinary, fantastic and so on. I could easily complete the alphabet but I am sure you get the idea. I am quite sure we will not see his like for a very long time. He idles along until Ruby actually asks him to go and win his race, then proceeds to pick them of with consummate ease to win going away and full of running. It is to his and our advantage that he takes little more than necessary out of himself meaning his career should be prolonged for a season or two yet. It will be one almighty upset if he loses his World Hurdle crown in March. In all the well deserved hysteria as the Big Buck's bandwagon rolls on, the performance of the runner-up has been largely forgotten. However, be in no mistake that Dynaste ran an absolute cracker in defeat. Tom Scudamore adopted more patient tactics than had been employed at Ascot and gave his mount every possible chance. He came well clear of the rest but was ultimately no match for the winner. You take Big Buck's out of the race and he would have been a hugely impressive winner. He remains a really smart prospect and will likely be in the shake-up in the big one in March. But he is one to watch when he goes novice chasing next season.

In the concluding 2m Handicap Hurdle I thought High Storm was overpriced at 25/1 and invested a few pennies EW. He made a bold bid (traded as low as around 5,0 in running) but faded close home to finish 7th. He looks on a fair mark and a similar prize could well be within his grasp. The winner Module did it well and looks a smart recruit for Tom George. It will be interesting to see where they go next. Hinterland travelled well but didn't pick up as expected and stayed on at the one pace into 3rd. He looks like he would appreciate a step up in trip already given that he seems to lack a change of gear but remains a useful chasing prospect for the seasons ahead. He is worth his place in the Triumph (or Supreme, as Nicholls said he was considering that option) when it would not be the biggest surprise to see him run on into a place off a strong pace. The huge eyecatcher was Sivola De Sivola who ran on powerfully from the rear to take 4th. This was a big step back in trip after an extended 3m handicap win at Newbury and he looks primed for a bid at the Pertemps Final in March. His current mark of 132 (assuming he remains unchanged for this effort, though he may not) would have had him on 10-2 last year but missing the cut by 1lb. He might need to go up a couple to ensure a run but is one to keep an eye on and it was no surprise to see him shortened into 10/1 favourite for the race.

Plenty of clues on offer but my immediate impression was that any winners would come in the handicaps at the Festival, Big Buck's aside. Did I see a Gold Cup winner? Definitely not (unless Big Buck's is switched to fences that is). Did I see a Neptune winner? Probably not. Did I see a Triumph winner? Possibly, but probably not. A very competitive card and a few conclusions to be drawn with the Festival drawing ever nearer.