A Supreme Bet

It is always nice to get the Festival off to a flyer in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, but this year's renewal looks a very very tricky race. However, at the current prices, the one that looks hugely overpriced is the Nicholls trained Hinterland. 

He was an impressive winner over course and distance back in November, showing a really high cruising speed and slick jumping. He was installed as favourite for the Triumph following that success. The 2nd that day, Hollow Tree, has done the form no harm since, winning the Grade 1 Finale, and chasing home Triumph favourite Grumeti (in receipt of 3lbs) and Pearl Swan at Cheltenham last time. The 3rd, Secret Edge, has also shown smart form since and is now rated 138.

Hinterland disappointed when beaten at odds-on by Baby Mix in a Triumph Trial in December, but that was no disaster as he was conceding that rival 7lbs, and didn't get the strong pace that he seems sure to relish. Furthermore, Baby Mix is as short as 5/1 for the Triumph following a smooth success in the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton. 

Hinterland was also beaten in a 2m handicap hurdle against older horses (experience that will stand him in good stead here) back at Cheltenham last time but again, things conspired against him. He was held up and travelled well throughout, but the gaps didn't come at the right time, and he was left with a lot of ground to make up, and very little time in which to do it. He still ran on pleasingly to take 3rd. Walsh has since admitted that he slightly overdid the hold up tactics on that occasion so I feel confident that he is capable of better.

He is by no means a certain runner in the Supreme (also a possible for the Triumph and the Fred Winter) but this is where the excellent NRNB concession comes into it's own. He is available at 40/1 at the moment and that looks far far too big. It is likely that he will get a far stronger pace in the Supreme which will make best use of his slick jumping and high cruising speed. Furthermore, neither Nicholls or Walsh have a strong contender for the race so I don't think it is totally ridiculous to think that Ruby might even take the ride. Assuming that Davy Russell rides Midnight Game for Willie Mullins and Gigginstown (not a given, but likely), then Walsh is left with Prospect Wells, Allure Of Illusion and Hinterland (if he runs). All three fall into the outsider category but it can be argued that Hinterland's form is at least as strong as Prospect Wells (rated 144), and stronger than Allure Of Illusion. He receives an 8lb weight allowance for being a 4yo and that added to his solid 141 rating brings him right into the mix with the favourite on the bare figures. I think he is capable of better than he has shown thus far meaning that if he were to run then 40/1 is a massive price. If he were to run and Walsh did take the ride, then his price would collapse. 

All things considered the 40/1 NRNB for the Supreme looks well worth taking at this stage. It is always nice to get the Festival off to a good start and this looks the best opportunity at the prices by a fair way. By the same argument, Hinterland also appears overpriced for the Triumph Hurdle at a best priced 25/1 NRNB but it is the Supreme in which he is most interesting.

1pt EW Hinterland at 40/1 NRNB Supreme Novices' Hurdle