Spring Double

The Spring Double is one of the oldest wagers and one of the most difficult. Trying to find the winner of the Lincoln or the Grand National on their own is hard enough, but trying to find both of them together is a near impossibility. However, I always view the Spring Double with a good deal more confidence than the Autumn Double (Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch). I suspect this is because I am primarily a National Hunt fan, meaning the Grand National feels like a 'home fixture'. That does not make the task any easier but it has to be worth a go.

Lincoln

My selection in this race comes with a good deal of risk attached. This is a horse that could win, but could finish last as well. His name is Fury (7/1). It might seem madness to be tipping up a horse that has failed to beat a single rival in his last three starts, but the advantage is that he has slipped to an attractive mark of 98, provided that he can recapture his best form. He was a smart juvenile, winning his maiden and the valuable Tattersalls Millions 2yo Trophy (beating Pisco Sour now rated 115, Formosina 112,  Measuring Time 102, Questioning 107, Auld Burns 102, and so on) in his only two starts. He then headed to Newmarket for the 2000 Guineas after an interrupted preparation. He was no match for Frankel (but neither was anything else) but kept on well enough to finish 5th. He then went to Sandown for the Heron Stakes and was just caught by Tazahum. That rival is now rated 115, and he had Neebras (now 117) and Pausanias (now 110) in behind. Then things took a turn for the worse as he was twice beaten at odds on (last on each occasion), and then was again last of 7 at Newmarket in October. However, his form both as a juvenile and early last season indicate that he is much better than 98. If he can recapture his best form then he will take all the beating.

There are a few reasons why he could do just that. He has been gelded since last season and it was reported that a twisted testicle was discovered which could explain why his form tailed off. Another is the very fact that the excellent William Haggas has kept him in training. He has no room for dead wood so must think that there are races to be won with him. He has (supposedly) been working well this spring ahead of this assignment, one in which his trainer has a fine record. And, finally, my own observations at the Guineas last year mean that I have to give him a chance. I wrote the following:

"The other to take from the race is Fury. I am in little doubt that he will be a very smart animal but he is still in need of more time to develop fully. He was unbalanced, being much higher behind than in front, suggesting that he has quite a bit of growing to do. He also looked like the run would bring him on. Indeed William Haggas did make it apparent that his preparation has been less than ideal, missing his intended prep race and ultimately that lack of experience and fitness told. In the race itself, he ran like he was lacking in experience. He seemed unbalanced and very green under pressure, particularly coming into the dip, and it was to his credit that he ran into 5th, albeit a long way behind the winner. I am by no means suggesting that he will ever scale the heights of the brilliant winner but he is certainly a horse who I am sure will find some nice races in the future, either later this season or as a 4yo and beyond. He would be the horse I would pick out as the most likely improver from what he looked like in the paddock"

I might be wrong of course but a horse of his ability, off a mark of 98, in a race that Haggas does well in, is a tempting proposition. I can well understand the people who think he is a mad selection (and he probably is) but in an open race with few obvious improvers he is one that could be far better than his mark and is worth chancing.

Grand National

I have narrowed this contest down to four (though a late change of mind is not beyond the realms of possibility). They are: Cappa Bleu, Prince De Beauchene, Sunnyhillboy and Becauseicouldntsee. I would not normally make a selection this early, preferring to wait until ground, riding arrangements and so on are known. However, I am not afforded that luxury on this occasion. 

Cappa Bleu (16/1) was a budding star on the Point-to-Point circuit back in 2009 and confirmed that promise when staying on strongly to land the Christies Foxhunters at the Cheltenham Festival. It is fair to say that his subsequent switch to Evan Williams for a rules career has not been plain sailing. He disappointed when beaten in a novice chase at Aintree first time up, then fell when beaten in the Hennessy. He then switched back to hurdles but was beaten at Taunton before being pulled up in the Albert Bartlett back at the Festival. That effort was in March 2010 and he then wasn't seen again until November 2011. He made light of the absence to win a decent handicap chase at Haydock. He then went to the Welsh National where he was a creditable 3rd behind two renowned mud larks in Le Beau Bai and Giles Cross. That ground wouldn't have suited at all and he was seen to much better effect at Ascot next time when giving a notably quiet ride by Paul Moloney. He was settled in rear but travelled strongly and made smooth progress to challenge nearing the last. He met the last wrong and could never quite get on terms but it was a pleasing effort nevertheless and will have set him up nicely for a tilt at the big one. Although he is a 10yo he is relatively lightly raced compared to most in the field but he has had plenty of experience in competitive big field handicap chases so I would not be concerned about that. He has had a nice break since Ascot and looks to have been trained with this day in mind all season. He jumps and stays well, handles good ground and he could finally fulfil his abundant promise from his early career.

Prince De Beauchene (9/1) has been the antepost favourite since winning the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse last month. He jumped and travelled well, and stayed on strongly for a comfortable success. He might not have beaten much (a lot were out of form) but it was the way in which he did it that impressed. He has since been raised to a mark of 155 but races off of 143 here. I am not sure he is as well in as that would suggest but definitely think that he is handicapped to win. He won the 3m handicap chase at the meeting last season when in the care of Howard Johnson off of 138 and there can be little doubt that he is a better horse now. Willie Mullins has laid him out for this and it was telling that the impressive Bobbyjo effort came 10 days after the weights were announced. His win at the meeting last year also proved that he can handle the likely good ground well making his credentials look rock solid. He has yet to tackle the fences but is a big horse so would look to have every chance of taking them in his stride. Similarly he has yet to try a marathon trip but has not been stopping at the end of his races over 3m and stayed on resolutely to win the 3m handicap last year. They are small question marks but he looks capable of providing the answer. It is likely that he will be the mount of Ruby Walsh who has an excellent record over the fences.

Sunnyhillboy (16/1) caught my eye when the weights were released on 15th February. He was trading at around 40/1 at the time and I very nearly asked for him to be added to the 'Grand National Favourite' market. Regrettably I backed him in neither. My reasoning was that he could win at the Festival before coming here and AP McCoy would ride because Synchronised would not run. Those two factors combined meant he would be far shorter than the 40/1 available at the time. I was right on the first account but it looks like the Gold Cup winner might be allowed to take his chance. Whether he does or not is neither here nor there because I much prefer the chances of Sunnyhillboy anyway. He proved in the Irish National and at Cheltenham this year that he is a strong stayer which would give him every chance of seeing out the extended trip. The two question marks he has are the fences and the hard race at Cheltenham. He isn't the biggest horse around and has been liable to make the odd blunder during his career. That could mean that the Aintree fences present a problem for him. He did have a hard enough race at Cheltenham but stayed on really strongly after the last to go right away. If he can overcome those two doubts then he is a very well handicapped horse who can go close. 

Becauseicouldntsee (22/1) finished 2nd behind Sunnyhillboy in the Kim Muir at the Festival and in many ways his credentials are similar. He is a proven stayer (good 2nd in the 4m National Hunt Chase in 2010), handles good ground, and looks to be on an attractive mark. The question he has to answer are again the fences and whether he is over that Cheltenham race. He has fallen 3 times in his chasing career, including at the 2nd in the National last year when well fancied. However, in the main he is a good jumper so I think he will have every chance of negotiating the course so long as things go his way. He has run well on the back of similar breaks in the past so that would not be a big worry. He looks the right type for the race and I think he has a great chance of making up for last year's mishap.

That is the shortlist of 4 but narrowing it down to one selection is difficult. I think Sunnyhillboy and Becauseicouldntsee are riskier propositions because of their potential jumping frailties (most notably the former), Prince De Beauchene has solid claims, but the same comment applies to Cappa Bleu and, at best prices of 9/1 and 16/1 respectively, preference is for the last named. I will add the other Grand National fancies nearer the race once the bookies start competing on offers should they still appeal.

1pt EW Double Fury (7/1) and Cappa Bleu (16/1) with Paddy Power paying 5 places on both races.