Monday 21 November 2011

The Hennessy - 5 Day Declarations

19 of the original 46 stand their ground for the Hennessy Gold Cup. The 19 left in are:

Neptune Collonges (33/1)
Joncol (14/1)
Planet Of Sound (14/1)
Sarando (14/1)
Aiteen Thirtythree (13/2)
Blazing Bailey (40/1)
Great Endeavour (8/1)
Beshabar (14/1)
Wayward Prince (10/1)
Carruthers (25/1)
Muirhead (40/1)
Michel Le Bon (8/1)
The Giant Bolster (20/1)
Wymott (8/1)
Fair Along (40/1)
Balthazar King (40/1)
Tullamore Dew (40/1)
Billie Magern (33/1)
Qhilimar (40/1)

All 8 horse that made it onto my shortlist have been left in the field, so some more aggressive culling is now required to narrow it down further.

Planet Of Sound - If Phillip Hobbs has got him spot on for his reappearance then I can certainly see him going close. This has been his target for a while and he has had a breathing operation since choking in the King George. I think he could run a nice race but I'm not convinced he's good enough to win this off a mark of 158.

Sarando - Was something of a surprise package at Aintree but I was impressed with his return. He seems to be improving nicely but he finds himself 4th in the weights. You have to ask yourself whether he is up to that sort of level.

Aiteen Thirtythree - The big news is that Ruby Walsh is declared to ride. He has shortened up considerably as a result from a general 8/1 yesterday into around a 5/1 shot, and clear favourite. Coral are still going 13/2 and I think that is a fair price because I think Ruby riding is a massive boost for his chances. I still doubt whether he can dominate the race, and how he will fare if he isn't able to, but I was impressed with his reappearance and has been laid out for the race. Stable confidence is sky high and he must be one for the reduced list.

Beshabar - This has been his target for some time but he is being prepared for the Grand national in April. He looks a proper stayer and I think a few might be too quick for him in this. He also improves for racing and I suspect he might be a little rusty first time up.

Wayward Prince - Another dour stayer but with a little more class. He will appreciate the trip and the ground and I can see him running a big race. My concern is that he might get outpaced when the pace quickens. He was struggling from a fair way out in the RSA but just stayed on best of all. I also doubt whether he is 6lbs superior to Wymott, who beat him when they met over hurdles.

Michel Le Bon - The second Nicholls runner who will presumably have the assistance of Daryl Jacob. It seems clear that Aiteen Thirtythree is their primary hope and Ruby rarely chooses the wrong one, assuming that he had the choice in the first place. For that reason he is left out.

The Giant Bolster - Clearly has jumping frailties but I think he could run a huge race with a clear round. Has good form over shorter but has always shaped like the step up to 3m will suit. If he completes then I think he could be right in the mix. However, his jumping will be put under pressure in this and I just wonder whether it will stand up to the test.

Wymott - Similar in profile to Wayward Prince, except for disappointing in the RSA. He was struggling right from the off so I feel confident that the run can be ignored. The one concern is who will ride. Jason Maguire has ridden him in all 11 starts, but his lowest riding weight in the last 12 months is 10-5 and he will need to do 10-2 here. That aside I think he has an excellent chance.

The three for me at this stage are Aiteen Thirtythree, The Giant Bolster and Wymott, with an honourable mention to Wayward Prince. Both Aiteen Thirtythree and Wymott are best priced with Coral at 13/2 and 8/1 respectively. I would not expect those prices to last too long so it might be best to take them while they are around. The Giant Bolster is a general 20/1 shot.

1 comment:

  1. Ray Banといえば、ドラマ『月の恋人~Moon Lovers~』でキムタクがかけていた覚えがあります。そのモデルはレイバン ウェイファーラー(Wayfarer)でしょう。ドラマの中でキムタクがレイバン サングラスをかけて、レクサスSCを駆っていく姿がとてもキマッテいて、昨年の夏に私も買っちゃいました。

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