Poquelin - Big weight but for good reason. He has placed 2nd, 1st, 5th, 1st in the last two runnings of the Paddy Power and the December Gold Cup. These 2m5f handicaps seem to play to his strengths and he is dangerous to rule out with David Prichard taking 7lbs off his back. Might be massive EW value.
Wishfull Thinking - One of the top novices of last season running 2nd in the Jewson at the Festival before going on to record impressive victories at Aintree and Punchestown. Big weight but he might well be up to the task. Conditions should suit and trainer appears bullish.
Oiseau De Nuit - Good handicapper who won the Grand Annual at the Festival. Steps up in trip and possibly faces a big ask from high in the weights. Not a total no hoper after a decent reappearance and Brendan Powell claiming 10lbs.
Loosen My Load - The big hope for Ireland and a worthy challenger. 3rd behind Wishfull Thinking in the Jewson but gets a 11lb pull in the weights for a 5 length beating. Form at the course is strong and the trip and ground should be in his favour. Big chance but my concern is that he doesn't seem to find a lot off the bridle.
Mon Parrain - Probably one of the most talked about horses over the summer months and his reappearance is eagerly anticipated. He has a tall reputation to live up to but his jumping was exquisite in both starts last season, including over the national fences at Aintree. Paul Nicholls seeks to break his duck in this race and he must hold every chance. One concern is the way he stopped at Aintree when seeming certain to score. Plenty of help from on top with Ruby Walsh doing the steering.
Great Endeavour - Second favourite to Long Run in this race 12 months ago but finished a disappointing 6th. Improved when 2nd to Poquelin next time and was in the process of running a decent race when falling 2 out at the Festival over 3m. Sure to be primed to try and continue the Pipe tradition in this race and folly to rule him out.
Dave's Dream - A terrific record when fresh and he comes straight here for his seasonal reappearance. He won at this meeting 12 months ago over 2m and then disappointed over 2m5f next time. The trip is a small query but he is a danger to all with his stable firing on all cylinders at the moment.
Holmwood Legend - Remarkably progressive for a 10yo last season and finished the season 2nd behind Poquelin in a valuable handicap at the course after winning at the Festival. Big hike in the weights to overcome and you just get the feeling that there might be a few handicapped to beat him in this.
The Giant Bolster - Pricewise selection antepost and it is not hard to see why. Is unbeaten in chases when completing but has failed to do so on 3/5 occasions. Has received tuition from jumping guru Yogi Breisner and he is dangerous with a clear round. Suspicion he might want further.
Finger OnThe Pulse - Largely disappointing but he did manange to take the Galway Plate in 2010. Since then he has run poorly in the main, but did win first time up this year. Others look to hold stronger claims.
Calgary Bay - 2nd over course and distance to Wishfull Thinking in January and weighted to exact revenge. However that rival is improving quickly and i suspect that the form will be confirmed. Looks like he might want further nowadays but a consistent performer who could easily run into a place.
Araldur - Choc Thornton has got down to 10 stone to ride him and that must be a tip in itself. Ran well first time up when chasing home Fistral Beach. May have finished closer because he was hampered there. Sure to improve for the run and looks to hold a decent chance.
Noble Alan - Has promised to win one of these handicaps a number of times but has met with trouble on each occasion. Fell when looking a certain winner at Market Rasen and tipped up 3 out when still travelling strongly in the December version last year. I am sure that he has one of these races in him and this could be the one with conditions in his favour. With a clear round he is entitled to go close.
Quantitiveeasing - 2nd in the Centenary Novices Handicap at the Festival bit i question the strength of that form. Trainer is in hot form and he is one capable of improvement but might prefer it a little softer.
Swincombe Rock - Trainer has won this twice in the last three years and quietly fancies this one. Out of the handicap here and possibly wants a little further.
Aerial - Another for the Champion Trainer and right at the bottom of the weights (4lbs out of the handicap proper). Won impressively on his first start in this country and that blew his handicap mark. Tough ask in this and others from the stable are preferred.
Tullamore Dew - 3rd in the Festival race won by Divers. He is out of the handicap but one open to progression. Might prefer a little more juice underfoot.
Divers - Festival winner and has followed the same path the stable took with L'Antartique who took this race a few years back. Diabolical reappearance when reportedly failing to handle the soft ground at Carlisle. He will have conditions more to suit here and his trainer is a renowned shrewd operator. Not without a chance but his seasonal debut was too bad to be true and there are sure to be questions asked if he wins this.
Billie Magern - The ride of Sam Twiston Davies, triumphant last year, and a good winner of a handicap here last month. Tends to be seen to best effect when allowed to dominate and he won't get that luxury in this. From out of the handicap others are preferred.
Fine Parchment - Second at Aintree first time up this season but off a career high mark, and from 6lbs wrong at the weights, i'm not convinced he has the necessary progression to take a hand in this competitive heat.
Conclusion
As competitive as ever and it is difficult to rule anything out with real confidence. This tends to go to a second season chaser with Grade 1 potential and both Wishfull Thinking and Loosen My Load fit into that category. Mon Parrain sits in the 'could be anything' category and, if he is as well handicapped as the reports suggest, he could turn this into a procession. However, he is priced accordingly. There are any number with chances but if forced to take a chance i think i would side with Noble Alan to finally take a hand in one of these races. he is available at 20/1 and i think that is a more than fair price. Mon Parrain is available at 5/1 in places having touched 3/1 this morning. If anyone fancies him then i would recommend a back-to-lay bet. Take the 5/1 because i can easily see him coming swinging down the hill with Ruby sitting motionless and consequently trading at a very short price. The question is what he will find up the hill and you can sit and find out safe in the knowledge that you win whatever the outcome. I hope he can do it because he could be very exciting but he is a short price for a race of this nature.
For those fancying a bet on the race i should draw your attention to the following offer from Ladbrokes - http://www.ladbrokes.com/ppgc/. A terrific deal and well worth taking advantage of.
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