Friday 18 November 2011

The King Returns - Betfair Chase

Flat racing has its great champions who star for one or two short seasons, but rarely can the summer game produce a horse that is adopted into the very hearts of the racing public. Frankel may be an exception to this rule, but it is more often the hurdlers and steeplechasers, who light up the long dark winter months, who gradually find their way into our affections. Arkle, Red Rum, Desert Orchid are all legends of the sport, and in recent seasons there is another horse worthy of joining that illustrious list. That horse is Kauto Star. 

Kauto Star made his British debut in December 2004, and in 7 subsequent seasons has won pretty much every major prize going. More importantly, he has also won the adoration of the racing public that is reserved for only the very best. Kauto Star is the first horse to win 4 straight King Georges, the first horse to regain the Gold Cup, a 3 time winner of the Betfair Chase and a dual winner of the Tingle Creek over 2m. He has 14 Grade 1 victories to his name. The opposition this weekend have just 6 between them. There can be no doubt that this is one of the very best. His longevity (Long Run was not even born when Kauto Star made his British debut) and his consistency allied to a phenomenal talent make him the undisputed horse of the century.

As is so often the case in sport, his career has been defined by a great rivalry. It is the rare occasions when two fine athletes grace one era that the greatest heights are reached. Ali/Frazier and more recently Federer/Nadal would be examples. In our sport, and in this era, we have Kauto Star and Denman. Their names are set to go down in history as two of the finest to have ever graced the turf. Without one another, each would have an extra Gold Cup to their name, but their rivalry, fought out from neighbouring stables at Ditcheat, ensures that they will endure forever more.

The Betfair Chase at Haydock tomorrow looks a stellar race on paper. As well as the return of Kauto Star, the reigning Gold Cup and King George champion Long Run, the reigning Hennessy Gold Cup winner Diamond Harry and the 1st and 2nd from the Charlie Hall Weird Al and Time For Rupert are all set to go to post in a fascinating renewal. 

Diamond Harry - Unbeaten in 5 seasonal reappearances and undoubtedly best when fresh. Took the Hennessy Gold Cup nearly 12 months ago and has not been seen since. He missed the Charlie Hall after getting cast in his box but that might be a blessing in disguise here. Would possibly prefer a little more cut than he is likely to enjoy.

Kauto Star - A legend of the game, but on something of a retrieval mission after disappointing at Punchestown last May. That poor display followed an heroic effort behind Long Run in the Gold Cup, and a brave display when off colour in the King George. The easier track here might just play to his strengths (he travelled much the best in the Gold Cup) and he will appreciate the good ground more than anything else. This might be his last race so all fingers crossed for a bold display.

Long Run - The new kid on the block after winning both the King George and the Gold Cup last season. Still only 6 and it is perfectly plausible for there to be more improvement to come. Reported to have grown over the summer and he will be a tough nut to crack if fit enough for his seasonal reappearance. This is a trial for the major targets ahead but he is sure to be ready to do himself justice.

Pure Faith - Ran Albertas Run close in the Old Roan with Master Minded back in 3rd but faces an even tougher assignment here. Looks outclassed.

Time For Rupert - A hot favourite for the RSA Chase at the Festival but could only finish 5th after breaking a blood vessel. Showed he might be up to this level with a good effort in 2nd in the Charlie Hall last month and expected to improve for the run. Doubtful that the good ground and sharper track will bring his stamina into play.

Weird Al - A promising novice for Ian Williams a couple of seasons back, but subsequently disappointed in the Hennessy and the Gold Cup last season. Has since joined Donald McCain and won the Charlie Hall in good style. Has always promised to be smart but this is another step up and a career best is required.

Conclusion - A top class renewal, and, with just the 6 runners going to post, I think the betting opportunities are limited. Before Rubi Light and Nacarat were taken out, the prospect of three places made the race an extremely attractive betting proposition. I would be happy to take Long Run on in that scenario, but as the race has shaped up I think it is best left alone from a betting point of view. I think the Charlie Hall form might prove to be a little suspect, and, I would therefore be inclined to side with Diamond Harry. I put him up for the Charlie Hall but he suffered a knock in the racecourse stables. That should not be a concern here and he would probably be my selection against the favourite. I also think that Kauto Star has a decent chance of running a big race and it would be no surprise at all to see him put in a bold show. That said it would be disappointing if Long Run was unable to start the season with a win. He looked very good last year and would expect him to take this before going on to more glory in the big prizes later in the year. If he drifted to much bigger than even money then I might be tempted to get involved. Anything odds on and I think he is best left alone. 

As the race stands, it is one to enjoy but not one to bet on. I will be cheering Kauto Star home, hoping that he can justify continuing his quite brilliant career, or at least bow out in respectable fashion. Conditions are in his favour, and it is by no means beyond the realms of possibility that the fairytale victory might just come true. What a great moment it would be if he could roll back the clock for one final time. Here's hoping.

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