Antepost King George

With the Christmas spectacular just 12 days away the anticipation is building ahead of what looks an excellent renewal of the William Hill King George VI Chase. The race has long been established as the 2nd most prestigious chase race of the calendar, behind only the Cheltenham Gold Cup. In recent years the race has been dominated by the legendary Kauto Star, who emerged victorious 4 times from 2006-09, but last season it was the young challenger Long Run who emerged triumphant on January 15th, when the race was postponed from its usual Boxing Day slot. This season the race looks better than ever. Kauto Star is the headline act as he seeks to win the race for the 5th time but Long Run will bid to retain his crown. Further interest is added by the dual Champion Chaser Master Minded attempting the 3m trip for the very first time, plus exciting young chaser, and last season's Arkle winner, Captain Chris finally steps up to 3m, a trip which he has appeared to by crying out for. 

Long Run (6/4) - The winner last year and holds strong claims this time around too. He went on to win the Gold Cup, no mean feat at just 6 years of age, and might still be on the upgrade. That said he is a precocious type and he was put in his place behind Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last month. He is expected to improve for the run but there can be little doubt that connections were shocked at the manner of his defeat. He was off the bridle a long way from home and just kept plugging on. He has looked increasingly like an out and out stayer in his races and it might be that this speedier test will not play to his strengths. This is a stronger renewal than last year, and, whilst his claims are obvious, I fear he might get done for toe at a crucial stage of the race, especially with three horses with Grade 1 winning form at 2m in the race. It would be no surprise to see him record back to back victories but at the prices he is worth taking on.

Kauto Star (9/2) - Already a four time winner of this race but lost his crown in no uncertain terms last season when a 19 length 3rd to Long Run. He was then 3rd in the Gold Cup, before pulling up at Punchestown. The calls for retirement were louder than ever but he made such suggestions look positively silly when winning the Betfair Chase from a quality field. He was supposedly cherry-ripe for that engagement and the 2nd that day, Long Run, is expected to improve. Nevertheless, an 8 length deficit means that plenty of improvement is necessary for the gap to be bridged. There is no doubt in my mind that he was well below par in this race last season and, knowing that it suits his unique talents exceptionally well, it is no folly to suggest that history might be in the making come Boxing Day. So long as he is over his Betfair exertions then he has an outstanding chance in my book. Only Paddy Power quote 9/2 with 4/1 being the general offering elsewhere. He looks a certainty for a place baring disasters and that looks a very fair price for an EW bet to nothing. He has the support of Pricewise on this occasions and can only get shorter as the race approaches. Once the public gamble begins in earnest the bookies will be running scared. Everyone will be cheering him home come Boxing Day, myself included. I want him to do it, and I think he can too.

Master Minded (11/2) - A very classy performer on his day, never more so than when pulverising the Champion Chase field as a 5 year old back in 2008. That was an exceptional performance and he showed signs of his old self up in trip in the Melling Chase at Aintree last season. However, I think he might have been flattered that day because he had an easier time than most at Cheltenham, having been allowed to cruise home in his own time after a catastrophic blunder 2 out. His reappearance was poor, but I can forgive him that, and he was back to form at Ascot last time when accounting for Somersby. That rival did the form no favours in the Peterborough Chase but 3rd place Medermit ran a cracker in the Spinal Research Atlantic 4 Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last weekend. He has the ability to trouble the best but my massive concern with him is the trip. He was always considered a specialist 2 miler, and it is only since his stranglehold on that division has loosened that the step up in trip has been considered. To my eye he has looked to be running on fumes over 2m4f, and his stride was certainly shortening at Ascot last time. For me his a huge doubt to get the trip, and, even if he does, his form has been consistently around the low 170s mark for a couple of seasons now and that will not be good enough to win this. I am happy to rule him out, but would not be too disappointed to see him win because he would make a most exciting addition to the staying chase division if he does get the trip. However, in my opinion he is a definite non-stayer, so, until I see it, I will not believe it.

Captain Chrisattritional contest. Unlike Master Minded, this is a horse that has always looked to be certain to improve for the step up to 3m. Connections have always felt that this would be his best trip and conditions should be ideal for him in this race, provided the ground is not too soft. It is a testament to his raw ability that he was able to win the Arkle (2m) and a Punchestown G1 over the same trip. His reappearance left a little to be desired but he looked the winner before unseating Richard Johnson at the last. If he can find a fluent rhythm then I would be pretty sure that he will stay, he can definitely travel and he will battle, and that will make him go very close indeed. I think he is a horse with any amount of untapped potential and the step up to 3m should allow him to show his true colours. I would be bullish about his chances if his preparation had been less interrupted. The unseat at Exeter was hardly ideal, but of more concern is the fact that he has missed two subsequent engagements (Amlin Chase and Peterborough Chase) after reportedly scoping badly. I think he might be the type to benefit from a recent race to remove any lingering rustiness, but that opportunity has now been missed. It is no disaster, and, if he is there fit and well on the day, then I would expect an enormous run from him. However, my enthusiasm for his chance is slightly tempered by his interrupted build up.

Somersby (14/1) - He has been a consistent Grade 1 performer, knocking on the door, without ever getting his head in front. He was again beaten in the Peterborough Chase and my feeling is that he just a 165 horse. To win this he needs to improve considerably and I just don't see it. The step up in trip might help but I find it hard to see him fighting out the finish. He might just stay on into a place but I think there are others who present more attractive EW prospects given that I cannot see him winning.

Diamond Harry (16/1) - He has always been best when fresh and has never run right handed. Those two obstacles stand in his way in this. I have heard in some quarters that he is entitled to improve for the run after finishing 4th in the Betfair Chase but I don't buy it. I cannot have it that a horse who has always shown his best form first time up will suddenly improve for the run. He is a classy animal on his day but I felt he was exposed at the very top level in the Betfair Chase and it is hard to see him any closer in this.

Riverside Theatre (25/1) - 2nd last year but an unlikely runner this time around. If he took his chance then he is sure to shorten dramatically in the betting and, at this stage, his price reflects the fact that he is not expected to be in the line up come Boxing Day.

Noble Prince (25/1) - Another who is unlikely to take his chance and his price reflects that. He would be a good deal shorter if he did make the field. His trainer reported him as on target for the Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase on 27th December at Leopardstown.

Weird Al (25/1) - All but certain to miss the race with Donald McCain suggesting he will be saved for a spring campaign.

Planet Of Sound (50/1) - He was a good 2nd in the Hennessy but, aside from winning a weak Grade 1 at Punchestown in 2010, has always been exposed at the top level. I see no reason why that should change but it is not entirely impossible that he might be staying on into a place if things fall in his plate.

Noland (50/1) - After the retirement of his stablemate Denman he is expected to take his chance in the Grade 1 Lexus Chase on the 28th December instead.

Nacarat (50/1) - His trainer has suggested that he might take his chance but it is hard to see him getting involved at the business end. He is a consistent performer at around 160 but far more is needed in this and the necessary improvement seems unlikely at the age of 10.

Golan Way (66/1) - A lively outsider after winning the Future Stars Chase at Sandown earlier in the month. He still has a lot to find and he seemingly lacks the ability of some of these.

Medermit (Not Quoted) - Trainer has said that he will not run.

Tartak (66/1) - Will not run. 

Conclusion - I think, as the betting suggests, this race revolves around the 4 at the top of the market; Long Run, Kauto Star, Master Minded and Captain Chris. They have no fewer than 30 Grade 1 wins between them, a quite remarkable statistic. Each represents an entirely different group with Long Run at the head of the young staying chasers, Kauto Star atop the older guard, Master Minded as the older horse stepping up in trip, and Captain Chris the young pretender trying 3m for the first time. For me, this is what makes this year's renewal such a fascinating race. My own opinion is that Master Minded will definitely not stay the trip, and for that reason I am happy to eliminate him from my calculations. That leaves Long Run, Kauto Star and Captain Chris as the three that I expect to fill the places. Deciding in what order is a little trickier. At the prices, and with my own doubts about him, I am happy to pass over Long Run for betting purposes. I think the prospect of improvement is possibly being slightly overplayed, and Nicky Henderson's reaction after the Betfair told its own story. It is clear to me that his connections were a little shell shocked at that result. As a consequence I think Kauto's terrific victory is being underplayed. He was comfortably the best horse on the day and his official rating of 174 is lower than I would give him. The handicapper rated the race through Weird Al, but he was ridden to get a place, so therefore gives a misleading rating for those ahead of him in my view. I think if Kauto Star can reproduce his Betfair form then he has an outstanding chance of adding a 5th King George to his unprecedented roll of honour. At 9/2 I wouldn't put anyone off a little EW bet. I think he will place and I think he might win, and at that price, I think it is worth the chance. The unknown quantity is Captain Chris. He hasn't shown anything like the level of form required but he has always looked a staying chaser in the making. His wins at shorter trips owe more to his natural ability than the fact that 2m suited him. He seems sure to improve for the extra mile and I would be confident of a big run from him if his preparation had been smoother. All is not lost, and I was heartened to read the positive bulletin from connections this afternoon. I have heard that he was consistently destroying Wishfull Thinking on the gallops last season, and whilst that one hasn't done a great deal for the form this season, he was a very good animal last term. I think he is at least a 175+ rated horse in the making over this trip and that puts him right in the mix. He might well win, but, as with Kauto, I think he will place. Therefore, he is a good EW bet at 8/1. However, unlike Kauto, I would advise people to wait until the day before investing. He looks like he will line up but it is not yet 100% certain. He has nothing like the public following that Kauto Star commands and his price is unlikely to collapse like Kauto's might. He might shorten a little but an EW bet on the day seems the best policy.

My own position on the race is Kauto Star EW at 9/2 and Captain Chris EW at 9/1. I am very happy with that, so long as both make it to the race in good order!

Whatever the outcome it looks a race to savour, with so many different angles all coming together in one Christmas spectacular. I cannot wait for the Christmas Day festivities to be over so the real Winter highlight can begin. All I want for Christmas is King Kauto to light up Kempton on Boxing Day one final time. An historic 5th King George would be quite something to behold, right up there with the very finest moments in our great sport. My ticket is booked and I cannot wait. Bring on Boxing Day.

While you are waiting for the big day to arrive, take the time to enjoy Kauto Star's display of utter perfection back in 2009 - video. Absolutely magnificent.