Celebrate At Cheltenham

What better way to bring in the New Year than a terrific day's action at Cheltenham. It promises to be just the first of many brilliant cards throughout the year, a year that promises oh so very much. We have Kauto Star v Long Run to look forward to in the Gold Cup, an historic attempt at an unprecedented 4th World Hurdle by Big Buck's, and on the flat the prospect of Frankel tackling 10f for the first time in a bid to enhance his standing in the list of the finest to have graced the turf.

12.30 - Novice Hurdle (2m4f)

A really decent looking novice hurdle with an unusually big field., and with plenty of runners full of promise. Barbatos was 2nd and 3rd behind Fingal Bay with Jump City filling 4th behind the same rival  last time. Jimbill won a weak race at Fakenham last time but in very easy fashion, and was a good 2nd in a Listed bumper the time before that. One Term won that bumper but was beaten first time up over hurdles but is entitled to improve. Hard To Swallow was in the process of running a decent race in the Persian War (again won by Fingal Bay) and has had a long time to get over that fall. It must be assumed that he suffered some sort of setback as a result given the time he has had off. If he's over that then he looks capable of going well. Down the bottom is the Henderson newcomer Master Of The Game. The fact that he is pitched straight into decent company is significant and he was also the subject of a favourable report from jockey Barry Geraghty in his At The Races blog ("he’s a horse that I like a lot"). Very hard to come to any conclusion and this is very much a race that falls into the watch but not bet category.

1.05 - Dipper Novices' Chase (2m5f) Grade 2

Traditionally a strong race and this year looks no exception with a number of exciting horses set to line-up. Solix heads the field under a double penalty after wins at Kempton and Cheltenham. He clearly has some engine but his jumping has left a little to be desired. It will take a good performance to give weight all round to these rivals. Champion Court is dropped back in trip and that should suit after tiring up the hill over 3m last time. Invictus won in really taking style at Plumpton last time. This is a whole lot tougher but he quickened really smartly that day and is well worth the rise in class. Sonofvic pushed Grands Crus all the way on his chase debut at Newbury, jumping well and keeping on well. He drops back in trip which might not suit him all that well but he has no penalty and that must give him a chance with the Grands Crus form boosted in no uncertain manner in the Feltham at Kempton. I am confused as to why Saint Are and Sybarite are running at this trip. Both look out and out stayers and are likely to find some of these having too much pace. This looks a top quality race and I would be prepared to give Sonofvic as a tentative selection at the trip. The run at Newbury might have been over 3m but Grands Crus, a horse with bundles of pace, didn't make him look slow and, therefore, the step back in trip, whilst not ideal, shouldn't inconvenience him too much. He is well regarded and in receipt of weight from his main rivals can take this. I was expecting him to be favourite but had hoped for better than 11/8 but he rates the most likely winner in my book. Solix is the one best suited by conditions and if his jumping improves then he is capable of a big performance. He is worth a saver at 4/1.

1.35 - Handicap Chase (3m2f)

Not a veteran's race but remarkably nothing younger than 9 lines-up, with 10 of the 15 already hitting double figures. My first thought was that this should be an easy race to sort 'the wheat from the chaff'. After a look I have arrived at the conclusion that there is no 'wheat'. If pushed I would probably side with Minella Theatre. He showed some sparkle last time when a close enough 5th behind Hey Big Spender and he wouldn't be the first horse that Lawney Hill has rejuvenated. The extra 2 furlongs will help and so will the hill, plus he has the benefit of a first time tongue-tie.

2.10 - Handicap Chase (2m5f) Grade 3

A far more competitive handicap with a few holding solid claims. The presence of The Nightingale at the head of the handicap gives the race a slightly skewed look with a few down the bottom just out of the weights. His stablemate Ghizao will be popular but he is becoming disappointing and I think he would prefer softer ground. Hidden Keel is held in high regard by upcoming trainer Charlie Longsdon. He's been beaten both starts this season but could go well on his handicap bow. Two novices making their handicap debuts are Duke Of Lucca and Micheal Flips. Both have been given marks lower than their hurdles ratings which gives them chances. In particular Duke Of Lucca looks to have solid claims with him really looking like he was at home over the bigger obstacles last time. However, despite the fact that he is a few pounds wrong at the weights I thought Micheal Flips was a big price. Another from down the bottom is Havingotascoobydo. He has shown decent form over 2m this season but looks sure to improve for the step up in trip. I would have Havingotascoobydo (7/1) and Micheal Flips (16/1) as my two against the field.

 

2.45 - Handicap Hurdle (3m)

Tidal Bay heads the weights in his first start for Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls. Ruby Walsh rides his other runner Oscargo who will be a warm order to repeat his course and distance success of last month. A 12lb rise, whilst hardly generous, looks within his compass. Get Me Out Of Here tries 3m for the first time. He ran very well in defeat behind Oscar Whisky last time and if staying the extra distance will be the major threat. Whether 6/4 'value' about the favourite is a different matter altogether. Given the fact that his profile is most progressive and that most of his rivals fall into the exposed category it is probably fair but no better.

3.20 - Cheltenham And Three Counties Club Hurdle (2m4f)

Oscar Whisky was 3rd in the Champion Hurdle and winner of the Aintree Hurdle last season and is the premier 2m4f hurdler around at the moment. He is expected to take this en route to challenging Big Buck's in the World Hurdle in March. Even giving away weight all round he should prove a class apart from these rivals. Best of the rest is Poungach, a most striking individual, who is definitely one to keep on the right side of, particularly when he is faced with a fence. His win at Sandown, whilst impressive, was won with stamina and I would be surprised if the drop in trip on better ground will suit. 8/15 looks a good price about the favourite.

3.50 - Bumper (1m6f) Listed

A whole heap of winners/placed horses that could be anything. The best of the lot looks to be Trespasser for the all conquering Ferguson/Quinlan team. He bolted up on his debut at Taunton and it will take a good one to beat him here. The drop in trip should not inconvenience him because he looked to have pace in abundance last time. 

Best of luck to one and all for a happy and prosperous 2012.