A Festive Feast At Kempton

Forget Christmas, Boxing Day is what the festive period is all about. The King George is the obvious highlight, but there is a terrific supporting card headed by the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle and the Grade 1 Feltham Novices' Chase; a trio of races that wouldn't look out of place at the Festival in March. 

2.00 - Williamhill.com Feltham Novices' Chase (3m) Grade 1

Bobs Worth - A banker at the Festival in the 3m Albert Bartlett Hurdle. He won as many expected, comfortably without being impressive. He is never a horse that is particularly pleasing on the eye and this means he might be underrated. However, whilst he won on his fencing debut I wasn't particularly taken with the performance. I might be falling into the trap I just mentioned but he seemed to lack a bit of size and scope that day. Also, not convinced the track will play to his strengths.He has won 6 on the bounce so it's hard to dismiss him.

Grands Crus - Only Big Buck's was his superior over hurdles last season and he has looked decent over the bigger obstacles this term. I had my doubts about him as a chaser because he was slightly on the small side and rather downhill in build last season. However, he looks a different horse this season and I have changed my position on him completely. He looked a little 'guessy' in places at Cheltenham, most notably at the ditch at the top of the hill, but was really impressive when holding of Sonofvic at Newbury last time. That rival might well be a very good horse in his own right but I was most taken by his fluent and clever jumping that day. Clearly has the engine and it will take a good one to stop him.

Mr Moonshine - A wide margin winner of two Novice races before a more than respectable 3rd in the Peterborough Chase behind Gauvain and Somersby. I suspect he might be slightly flattered by the result since he never looked like winning but the step up to 3m looks to be in his favour. He might not have the star quality of some of these but I thought 20/1 looked too big.

Silviniaco Conti - A horse that I am quite keen on. He was talked of as a potential Champion Hurdler at one time but a fair 3rd in the International put paid to those fanciful ambitions. He was always likely to prove better for a fence and a trip and I still think that is the case. He was beaten first time up but the slow pace would not have suited and he was unfit. Next time he showed what he was capable of when slamming a decent field in a Grade 2 at Wincanton. On both occasions his jumping was excellent. He has a bit of class and I think he will stay. 

Teaforthree - He got off the mark over fences at the 3rd time of asking at Chepstow a few weeks back. That win came on heavy ground and stamina appears to be his strong suit. I suspect a few of these might prove a touch too classy for him round this much sharper test.

Emmaslegend - Just the one chase start to her name when hacking up by 24 lengths at Folkestone. As a result she is already rated higher over fences than she was over hurdles but still has a fair bit to find with the principles. her weight allowance will come in handy but this is a tough ask. 

Conclusion - A really top quality renewal which will provide some invaluable pointers ahead of the Festival with many of the key contenders for the Jewson/RSA taking their chance. Grands Crus has looked good so far and is hard to oppose. I wasn't particularly impressed with Bobs Worth first time but he is game and consistent and always workmanlike. I am a big fan of Silviniaco Conti and the sharp 3m here might be just perfect. I think he will stay, but couldn't be certain, and he might be worth a chance. At 4/1 I think he only fair value because this is a tough ask. At the prices, the 11/8 about Grands Crus is perhaps the best on offer. The other of interest is Mister Moonshine who looks far too big at the 22/1 available with Victor Chandler. The question is whether you could actually fancy him to get in the first two, and that looks unlikely. 

2.35 - Williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (2m) Grade 1 

Binocular - The winner of the race last year but I have him down as just short of top class, despite an impressive win in the Champion Hurdle. I firmly believe he will never be a match for an on song Hurricane Fly but whether he faces anything of that calibre in this field is a different matter altogether. He's renowned for his inconsistency and it is hard to recommend him with any confidence. Connections were undoubtedly disappointed by his reappearance and I would avoid him in this.

Clerk's Choice - The dark horse in the International Hurdle a few weeks back but trailed in a disappointing 7th of 8 beaten 52 lengths. Hard to recommend him on the back of that poor effort.

Overturn - A cracking little horse who has given connections a brilliant time both on the flat and over the sticks. Already a winner of the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle, the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth and 2nd in the Grade 2 International this season. Was intended to have a nice break but the favourable ground has tempted them towards this prize. He was 2nd last year, but had Binocular, his conqueror that day, back in 2nd at Newcastle in November.

Rock On Ruby - Always thought of as more of a stayer and the 2m trip and sharp track might, therefore, be a disadvantage. However, since finishing 3rd on his bumper debut his form over 2m or 2m1f reads 11111, and over further reads 223. That might have more to do with the opposition than the trip but there can be little doubt that he is useful over 2m as well. Interestingly the Neptune (as it now is) has thrown up a few decent 2m hurdlers, none more so than triple winner Istabraq, but there is also Hardy Eustace and most recently Peddlers Cross. However, of most interest is that Rock On Ruby was just beaten in a manner that suggested that a drop to 2m might be beneficial. This race is the acid test and will show whether he is Champion Hurdle class and I think he might be up to it given how well the form of his Newbury Handicap win has worked out. Given that the opposition have more than their fair share of question marks I just think he might be worth the chance.

Sanctuaire - A bit of an enigma and I thought he might go well in the International. He looked to be travelling well into the home straight but found precisely nothing when asked. Might outrun his odds once again but hard to see him beating them all home. He has only ever won with Ruby on his back so the lack of his assistance is a big negative. 

Conclusion - A race that looks a tight three way battle between Binocular, Overturn and Rock On Ruby. The odds reflect that; 2/1, 2/1 and 5/2. Binocular is entitled to improve for his reappearance but I'm not convinced that will be enough to beat Overturn if he gets his favoured good ground. That said it looks very close between the two and it might be worth chancing Rock On Ruby. I'm not convinced that the track will suit entirely but he hasn't looked short of pace, and, with Overturn sure to set a good gallop in front, it shouldn't be a sprint. He might fall short but he might be better than them both too.

3.10 - William Hill King George VI Chase (3m) Grade 1 

Eight have been left in at the final forfeit stage and there are no surprises. The field may be select but the quality is exceptional. It will take a very good performance to take this year's crown and, on paper at least, it looks a race to savour. I think a performance of at least 180 will be required and with that in mind it looks a two (maybe three) horse race. I can't say my view on the race has changed a great deal since I posted my antepost thoughts but a few views have firmed up, a few altered slightly.

Tom Segal in this week's Weekender said that Master Minded has "absolutely zero chance of winning". I would be inclined to agree and will lay him for a place. On the bare form he is probably 3rd best of these (behind Long Run and Kauto Star) but I don't see him staying the trip, and there are others open to plenty of improvement. I don't think he has run to much more than 170 for the past two seasons, including his romp in the Melling Chase. Therefore, he will need to improve by 10lbs for the trip and I just don't see that happening. Far more likely is that he is 10lbs below his best and with that in mind I can't see him much better than 5th; I suspect Somersby, and possibly Diamond Harry, might be in front of him at the trip. He was a solid enough 5/1 but is already drifting like the proverbial barge and can see him hitting double figures on the day.

In contrast the confidence around Captain Chris is infectious. He is now shortening all the while and is now a best priced 7/1, although as short as 6/1 in places. If he had a smooth run into the race I would be bullish about his chances EW, but his price would most likely be shorter as a result. I think it is still very fair and I am happy with my 8/1 and 9/1 EW. Richard Johnson seems most positive about his chances and that is pleasing to see.

Paul Nicholls has issued positive bulletins about Kauto Star and I see no real reason why he can't run to the Betfair form. If he can it will take a good performance to lower his colours. With Ruby back in the plate this year, the stage is set for an historic 5th King George. I think he has an excellent chance brining the house down.

Somersby is perhaps the dark horse and whilst I would be astonished if he were to win he looks the most likely to pick up the pieces if any of Kauto Star, Long Run and Captain Chris disappoint. He falls into a similar category to Diamond Harry but my preference would be for the Knight runner.

The favourite Long Run heads the market entirely on merit and his claims are there for all to see. He will be many people's banker on the day and it is easy to see why. That said his lack of a gear is a concern and would be enough to put me off at the price. The way connections were rattled at the Betfair still rankles with me. There is no way they were expecting to be put in their place like that. He must surely improve for the run, but improve he must, and I don't think the form reversal is anything like as inevitable as the odds suggest.

I think the ground will be around good to soft and with that in mind I think the top 3 is as follows: 1. Kauto Star 2. Long Run 3. Captain Chris. I find it hard to see anything else getting in the three, barring mishaps, and would advise a few nice tricasts and forecasts involving the three of them to support any single bets.

Win, lose or draw, it is a fantastic race to look forward to.