The biggest race of them all and the market looks very different to what we might have expected a few months back. I am sure that most, myself included, did not expect Kauto Star to be sitting pretty as the 2nd favourite for the Gold Cup at the turn of the year. Perhaps even more surprising is the recent news that Grands Crus, the outstanding staying novice, is expected to take his chance in the race.
Long Run (11/4) - 2nd in both the Betfair Chase and the King George to the great Kauto Star. He is looking evermore the out and out stayer as he ages and the Gold Cup looks to be his race. I said after the Gold Cup in 2011 that I suspected he might be vulnerable in the King George, but that he would win the Gold Cup. I have been vindicated on the first part of that prediction and think there is every chance that the second will come true. He just lacks a bit of pace and he was never quite getting to Kauto Star round the flat 3m at Kempton. The extra 2 and a half furlongs and Cheltenham's uphill finish are just what he needs. That is no secret and he remains a solid favourite at a best priced 11/4 despite not getting his head in front this term. Some have suggested the Gold Cup is a formality for him but I would not go that far. He is the most likely winner but I can envisage circumstances that would favour Kauto Star. He drifted to as big as 3/1 after the King George and that price was snapped up. It is easy to think that the 11/4 might not last long either. The worry is that he is due to have a prep race at Newbury and I can easily envisage a less than impressive performance from him in that. That could lead to his price drifting a little. That said I think I would rather back him on the day.
Kauto Star (9/2) - Not many would have put him forward as a Gold Cup contender a few months back but it goes to show just how quickly things can change. He is a general 4/1 chance but Sportingbet and William Hill go 9/2, with Ladbrokes, already non-runner-no-bet, at 3/1. My initial impression when looking at the odds was that the 9/2 looks excellent value. He will not race again between now and the Festival, and provided he lines-up on the day there is simply no way he can be any bigger than 3/1. His adoring public will pile in once again, and for good reason. As his trainer Paul Nicholls said, if he were an 8 year old he would be favourite for the Gold Cup, and he has a point. It must be remembered that, whilst the stamina sapping contest that is the Gold Cup does not necessarily play to his strengths, he is a dual winner of the race. It is also easy to argue that he should have won more. He is one of the outstanding steeplechasers of all time and it would be ludicrous to write him off for anything. He has already made fools of many this season. I am his biggest fan and definitely think he can win the Gold Cup in March. A few factors will be more in Long Run's favour but there are a conditions which can redress that balance. For example, a small and weak field with no front runners on good ground will play right into Kauto Star's hands. That scenario looks entirely plausible at this stage and my final opinion will depend on conditions. Like many I have Long Run as the most likely winner, but only just.
Grands Crus (8/1) - The outstanding staying novice chaser this season with wins at Cheltenham, Newbury and Kempton. In particular his win on Boxing Day in the Grade 1 Feltham was most taking. He jumped to the front and readily put the race to bed some way out. It was then a case of maintaining the gallop which he did with ease. The one question mark for me is his stamina. This might seem surprising given he has a lot of form over 3m, including a 2nd in the World Hurdle, but he has so much pace that it must at least be a small worry. In the Feltham both Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth were closing at the finish but that may be misleading given that Grands Crus was being eased close home. I had my doubts about his jumping but he has proven me wrong on that front. My chief concern was his build but his physical development over the summer has been quite striking. He is clearly very good indeed and it is not impossible that he has found significant improvement over the summer. The current plan is to run in the Argento on Trials Day at Cheltenham and that might tell us more. The owner is favouring the Gold Cup and if allowed to take his chance is certainly worthy of consideration. He is a general 8/1 chance, but is available at 7/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes. If he wins the Argento well, and there is no reason why he shouldn't, then that might look a decent price.
Synchonised (14/1) - A good winner of the Lexus Chase but I can only think that had more to do with the weakness of the Irish Staying Chasers than his own ability. Rubi Light looked to stay but not relish the trip, whilst Quito De La Roque is slow. I though the same comment applied to Synchronised but he made them look pedestrian in behind. However, I have my doubts about whether he is a proper Gold Cup horse and the likely good ground will not be in his favour. Worthy of his place in the line-up but not one for me.
Time For Rupert (20/1) - Was all the rage at this time last year (very similar to Grands Crus) but I have always been of the opinion that he is hugely overrated. Nothing he has done this season has changed that. Finished 2nd in the Charlie Hall but well and truly put in his place by Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase. Won at weak race at Newbury last time but hardly in impressive fashion. He will need it to be soft if he is to have any chance. I have never seen him as a Gold Cup contender and nothing this season has persuaded me otherwise.
Weird Al (25/1) - Won the Charlie Hall and finished a fair 3rd in the Betfair Chase. He ran really poorly on both starts last season but if you take those two starts out of the equation then his record looks quite impressive. He likes Cheltenham, he has handled good ground, and he stays well but is not devoid of pace. I think he has a few things in his favour, especially as he is being targeted at the race by his excellent trainer Donald McCain. He goes well fresh so I think he is perhaps a little overpriced. Why Time For Rupert is shorter than him is beyond me.
Captain Chris (25/1) - I am a big fan of this horse and he ran much as I expected in the King George. He has always been best in the spring on proper good ground and after seeing him in the paddock at Kempton I am convinced the same will happen this season. It must be remembered that he failed to get off the mark over fences until February last year before taking Grade 1 prizes at Cheltenham and Punchestown. In that context his 3rd in the King George, albeit well adrift of the leading pair, is hugely creditable. I think he stayed OK but just tired in the closing stages. It is perhaps the case that his interrupted preparation told. He would still have finished 3rd but with one more race he might have been a bit closer. He looked to lack a bit of experience in places and his jumping was a little rusty. I think back on spring ground, round a big galloping track, with a touch more experience he can go well again.
Diamond Harry (25/1) - As has been the case before he missed the King George after being lame just before the race. He is fragile and his ability to make the race, let alone win it, must be doubtful. His best form has been first time out on flat galloping tracks. His one race at Cheltenham was in the RSA when he ran a real clunker. The fact that he was beaten in the Betfair Chase in ideal conditions tells me he's not quite up to this level. His supporters have said he will improve for the run but he has never done that in the past so I see no reason why that should be the case this time around. His next target is likely to be the Argento.
Quito De La Roque (33/1) - The main hope for Ireland but his bubble was burst when only 3rd in the Lexus Chase. He is slow and will need soft ground and a relentless pace for him to stand any chance in this. He is not one for me.
Rubi Light (33/1) - One place in front of Quito De La Roque in the Lexus but whilst he stayed OK I am of the opinion that a drop back in trip will help him out. The Lexus probably was not the strongest of races so the fact that he could not win that leaves him with a bit to find. Connections also suggested that the ground was plenty quick enough for him and that must be a concern whether he comes here or goes for the Ryanair. I did quite like him as a lively outsider but not any more.
Jessies Dream (33/1) - Yet to be seen this season but trainer Gordon Elliott thinks he can be a danger in the Gold Cup. I am less convinced. For one he was 2nd in the RSA and the form of that race is truly appalling. In his last two starts he finished a close second to Magnanimity (a 50l 8th in the Lexus) and Bostons Angel (who could only finish 3rd behind Golan Way at Sandown last time) in the RSA. That form looks incredibly weak and unless he shows otherwise he is very difficult to fancy.
Conclusion - At this stage it is hard to see beyond the established duo of Long Run and Kauto Star. I think Long Run a rightful favourite but, as at Kempton, I am uncertain whether there should be such a price discrepancy between the two. If you followed the advise to back Kauto Star for the King George then you could certainly do worse than reinvesting your stake for the Gold Cup. Grands Crus is interesting but novices have a poor record and I get the feeling that it is the owner who wants to run in the Gold Cup, and not David Pipe. Weird Al is perhaps a little overpriced, and the same comment applies to Captain Chris. I would have the race between those 5 at this early stage, with preference, as the betting would suggest, with the established duo. The only price that looks worth taking is the 9/2 about Kauto Star because I would be surprised if that lasted very long.
Grands Crus (8/1) - The outstanding staying novice chaser this season with wins at Cheltenham, Newbury and Kempton. In particular his win on Boxing Day in the Grade 1 Feltham was most taking. He jumped to the front and readily put the race to bed some way out. It was then a case of maintaining the gallop which he did with ease. The one question mark for me is his stamina. This might seem surprising given he has a lot of form over 3m, including a 2nd in the World Hurdle, but he has so much pace that it must at least be a small worry. In the Feltham both Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth were closing at the finish but that may be misleading given that Grands Crus was being eased close home. I had my doubts about his jumping but he has proven me wrong on that front. My chief concern was his build but his physical development over the summer has been quite striking. He is clearly very good indeed and it is not impossible that he has found significant improvement over the summer. The current plan is to run in the Argento on Trials Day at Cheltenham and that might tell us more. The owner is favouring the Gold Cup and if allowed to take his chance is certainly worthy of consideration. He is a general 8/1 chance, but is available at 7/1 NRNB with Ladbrokes. If he wins the Argento well, and there is no reason why he shouldn't, then that might look a decent price.
Synchonised (14/1) - A good winner of the Lexus Chase but I can only think that had more to do with the weakness of the Irish Staying Chasers than his own ability. Rubi Light looked to stay but not relish the trip, whilst Quito De La Roque is slow. I though the same comment applied to Synchronised but he made them look pedestrian in behind. However, I have my doubts about whether he is a proper Gold Cup horse and the likely good ground will not be in his favour. Worthy of his place in the line-up but not one for me.
Time For Rupert (20/1) - Was all the rage at this time last year (very similar to Grands Crus) but I have always been of the opinion that he is hugely overrated. Nothing he has done this season has changed that. Finished 2nd in the Charlie Hall but well and truly put in his place by Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase. Won at weak race at Newbury last time but hardly in impressive fashion. He will need it to be soft if he is to have any chance. I have never seen him as a Gold Cup contender and nothing this season has persuaded me otherwise.
Weird Al (25/1) - Won the Charlie Hall and finished a fair 3rd in the Betfair Chase. He ran really poorly on both starts last season but if you take those two starts out of the equation then his record looks quite impressive. He likes Cheltenham, he has handled good ground, and he stays well but is not devoid of pace. I think he has a few things in his favour, especially as he is being targeted at the race by his excellent trainer Donald McCain. He goes well fresh so I think he is perhaps a little overpriced. Why Time For Rupert is shorter than him is beyond me.
Captain Chris (25/1) - I am a big fan of this horse and he ran much as I expected in the King George. He has always been best in the spring on proper good ground and after seeing him in the paddock at Kempton I am convinced the same will happen this season. It must be remembered that he failed to get off the mark over fences until February last year before taking Grade 1 prizes at Cheltenham and Punchestown. In that context his 3rd in the King George, albeit well adrift of the leading pair, is hugely creditable. I think he stayed OK but just tired in the closing stages. It is perhaps the case that his interrupted preparation told. He would still have finished 3rd but with one more race he might have been a bit closer. He looked to lack a bit of experience in places and his jumping was a little rusty. I think back on spring ground, round a big galloping track, with a touch more experience he can go well again.
Diamond Harry (25/1) - As has been the case before he missed the King George after being lame just before the race. He is fragile and his ability to make the race, let alone win it, must be doubtful. His best form has been first time out on flat galloping tracks. His one race at Cheltenham was in the RSA when he ran a real clunker. The fact that he was beaten in the Betfair Chase in ideal conditions tells me he's not quite up to this level. His supporters have said he will improve for the run but he has never done that in the past so I see no reason why that should be the case this time around. His next target is likely to be the Argento.
Quito De La Roque (33/1) - The main hope for Ireland but his bubble was burst when only 3rd in the Lexus Chase. He is slow and will need soft ground and a relentless pace for him to stand any chance in this. He is not one for me.
Rubi Light (33/1) - One place in front of Quito De La Roque in the Lexus but whilst he stayed OK I am of the opinion that a drop back in trip will help him out. The Lexus probably was not the strongest of races so the fact that he could not win that leaves him with a bit to find. Connections also suggested that the ground was plenty quick enough for him and that must be a concern whether he comes here or goes for the Ryanair. I did quite like him as a lively outsider but not any more.
Jessies Dream (33/1) - Yet to be seen this season but trainer Gordon Elliott thinks he can be a danger in the Gold Cup. I am less convinced. For one he was 2nd in the RSA and the form of that race is truly appalling. In his last two starts he finished a close second to Magnanimity (a 50l 8th in the Lexus) and Bostons Angel (who could only finish 3rd behind Golan Way at Sandown last time) in the RSA. That form looks incredibly weak and unless he shows otherwise he is very difficult to fancy.
Conclusion - At this stage it is hard to see beyond the established duo of Long Run and Kauto Star. I think Long Run a rightful favourite but, as at Kempton, I am uncertain whether there should be such a price discrepancy between the two. If you followed the advise to back Kauto Star for the King George then you could certainly do worse than reinvesting your stake for the Gold Cup. Grands Crus is interesting but novices have a poor record and I get the feeling that it is the owner who wants to run in the Gold Cup, and not David Pipe. Weird Al is perhaps a little overpriced, and the same comment applies to Captain Chris. I would have the race between those 5 at this early stage, with preference, as the betting would suggest, with the established duo. The only price that looks worth taking is the 9/2 about Kauto Star because I would be surprised if that lasted very long.
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