Champion Hurdle

Three of the first four in the betting have yet to show their faces this campaign. Two definitely by design, but the reigning Champion Hurricane Fly has missed a couple of engagements with trainer Willie Mullins reportedly not happy with his charge. Those that have appeared have yet to deliver anything that suggests the Hurricane's crown is in danger come March, so long as he is able to defend it. That must be a small worry but I get the impression that this season is all about Cheltenham. Last season they did not know how good he could be so were happy mopping up the Irish Grade 1s. Now he has shown what a brilliant horse he is, and with the Champion Hurdle looking at his mercy, Mullins will be doing everything he can to get him there on the day that matters most. Nothing else matters, it is all about Cheltenham. The main challenge looks to come from those that we have yet to see.

Hurricane Fly (13/5) - A brilliant winner of this race last year when he quashed the notion that the hill would hold any fears for him with authority. After a spate of average looking Champion Hurdlers he finally looked a horse worthy of the illustrious crown. He went on to destroy the opposition at Punchestown and, given his versatility in pretty much every regard, it is very hard to see him getting beaten if he turns up in good order in March. He seems happy on good or bottomless ground or anything in between, off a fast pace or a slow pace, he jumps well, has more pace than any of his rivals and stays very well. In short he looks the complete package. The one minor concern is that he could get lit up by the preliminaries. He coped well last year and the way he was so keen through his race suggests there might be more to come. The one major concern is whether he will be able to line-up, especially considering he has missed two of the last three Festivals. If he does I find it hard to see him being defeated, unless one of Spirit Son or Zarkandar can do something exceptional. Everything we have seen so far look a level below what the Hurricane is capable of.

Grandouet (6/1) - A very smart juvenile last year and has really progressed pleasingly this year, the highlight being a taking win in the International Hurdle. That day he had Overturn and Brampour in 2nd and 3rd and despite the fact that he won easily he was hardly flying away from them up the hill. I think both of those rivals are short of the top level (and he was receiving weight from Overturn) so would liked to have seen him dismiss them more readily. He is well worthy of his place in the field for certain but he makes no appeal whatsoever at 6/1. 

Spirit Son (10/1) - Only 2nd in the Supreme but absolutely demolished a good field at Aintree the last time we saw him. Barry Geraghty reported that Cheltenham just came a year too soon for him and he is expected to be a different proposition this term. He has yet to make his seasonal reappearance but that is slightly by design, though there were reports of a minor hold-up earlier in the season. He will need to progress but that looks likely, and the rumours suggest that he is the best of Nicky Henderson's trio (Grandouet and Binocular being the other two). That alone means he warrants great respect. Is he worth backing now? Possibly. The 10/1 looks vulnerable and he is unlikely to face much opposition when he does see a racecourse. I would expect him to win impressively and then he could easily be a 5/1 chance. My inclination would be to refrain at least until where he will be reappearing and what he will be facing. In my opinion he looks one of the more likely challengers to the reigning Champion.

Zarkandar (10/1) - Almost exactly the same comments apply to Zarkandar as to Spirit Son. The Triumph that he won looks exceptionally strong form with the 2nd that day Unaccompanied winning the Grade 1 Istabraq Hurdle this week, the 3rd Grandouet winning the International, the 9th Brampour winning two good handicaps (including the Greatwood) and running well in 3rd in the International and the 14th Molotof looking a really smart novice hurdler. The form could hardly be working out any better and if Zarkandar can find the same improvement as the horses that he beat, and there is no reason to think he cannot, then he will be a force to be reckoned with. The exploits of stablemates Rock On Ruby and Brampour have further strengthened his claims with Champion Trainer Paul Nicholls adamant that he is his best ever chance of winning that elusive Champion Hurdle. The other factor to consider is he has had the benefit of a breathing operation which should enable him to find yet more improvement. I backed him for the Triumph and would be disappointed if he were not in the shake-up come March. As for backing him, the same comments apply as for Spirit Son.

Binocular (12/1) - Hailed as a brilliant Champion back in 2008 but in hindsight the form looks very poor indeed with Khyber Kim in 2nd and Zaynar and Celestial Halo filling 3rd and 4th. He did win it well but has done little since to suggest that he is capable of mixing it with the very best around, being comprehensively thumped by Hurricane Fly at the Punchestown Festival. The strong pace and the hill play to his strengths but he is far too inconsistent to recommend at this stage. He has his fans but I am not one of them. He is nearly always deeply unimpressive in his prep races so there appears no reason to back him now.

Rock On Ruby (12/1) - Never considered as a Champion Hurdle prospect until he demolished a very competitive handicap field in the Gerry Fielden at Newbury off top-weight. Stablemate Empire Levant was unpenalised for a 29 length win just two days previously and, whilst he was comfortably clear of the rest, he was no match for Rock On Ruby. The form of that race looks very strong indeed with the 3rd and 5th, Raya Star and Alarazi going on to fight out the finish (1st and 3rd) in the valuable Ladbroke Hurdle. His credentials were tested at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle and I think he ran with great credit. If he had jumped the last well I fancy he would have won and considering conditions were hardly in his favour that must entitle him to respect. I doubt whether he can challenge Hurricane Fly (especially as Nicholls considers him his second string) but he must have place prospects back at a stiffer track. He went down by just a short-head in the Neptune. His run at Aintree behind Spirit Son can be forgiven as he was most likely over the top by then.

Unaccompanied (14/1) - A good 2nd in the Triumph after being hampered round the home turn but ultimately she was no match for the winner who was well on top at the line. She has shown good form this year including a defeat of Thousand Stars in the Istabraq Hurdle last week. Her hurdles form reads 112411, mostly at Grade 1 level. She came to Cheltenham with an apparent preference for soft ground, and yet Dermot Weld suggested that the rain at Leopardstown was against her given she has so much speed. She certainly handled good well enough in the Triumph but for whatever reason I can't see her winning the Champion. No real reasoning behind it, just a gut feeling.

Thousand Stars (20/1) - 4th in the race last year and seems to be improving all the while. That tend was arrested somewhat when he was beaten last weak at Evens behind Unaccompanied. However, I think there were valid reasons for that, including an unusually poor ride from the master himself, Ruby Walsh. He allowed the race to turn into a speed test, then got boxed in, and despite his mount rallying close home was never quite getting there. I think he's better than that and actually quite like him for place prospects in the Champion Hurdle. I have had a very small EW bet at 33/1 on him and provided he takes his chance, which I think he will, I can certainly see him getting involved. He is tough and consistent, stays further, and you know he'll give you a run for your money.

Oscars Well (25/1) - A possibly unlucky 3rd in the Neptune but I'm not convinced he would have won, regardless of whether he slipped at the last or not. This season he has yet to get on the scoresheet, finishing 3rd, 2nd and 3rd, and behind Thousand Stars on two occasions. The Champion test should suit more but he doesn't look a Champion Hurdler to me. 

Oscar Whisky (25/1) - 3rd in the race last year but I'm not so sure he would confirm placings with Thousand Stars 12 months on. Anyway, that is likely to be irrelevant with connections setting their sights on the towering colossus that is Big Buck's in the World Hurdle.

Overturn (33/1) - I keep saying but he is the very definition of a 'cracking little horse'. He is game, consistent and tough, but just short of the very top level. He will give his running once again, and good spring ground will suit him well, but once again he'll find a few too good.

Brampour (40/1) - Won two competitive handicaps, including the Greatwood, early in the season and then finished a creditable 3rd in the International. The fact that he ran just a week later to take advantage of a favourable handicap mark tells you all you need to know about his Champion Hurdle aspirations. If he was a genuine contender then you can be damn sure that Nicholls wouldn't have been running him there. 

Conclusion - Hurricane Fly is a formidable opponent to all his potential challengers and if he returns to defend his crown then it will take an almighty performance to lower his colours. I have yet to be convinced by any of the horses that have run yet this season (Thousand Stars and Rock On Ruby are perhaps the best of them) so would therefore look towards the unraced duo of Spirit Son and Zarkandar to present the biggest threats. They rank very similar in profile, ratings and so on, and it is no surprise to see the bookmakers pricing them up identically as well. Both trainers think they are their best hopes and that must put them near the top of the tree given the exploits of their less vaunted stablemates. If pushed to choose between the pair I would side with Zarkandar. He is open to any amount of improvement, has had a breathing operation, will relish the strong pace and the hill, and Nicholls appears bullish about his chances. A late start was always the plan so that is of no concern at all. The pair appear closely matched on all known evidence but both will need to produce something special to defeat the reigning Champion, who looks right out of the very top drawer. I have backed Hurricane Fly at 3/1 (Boylesports 12 Days of Christmas special offer) and am happy with that. If he misses the race then it suddenly looks very open but from what I have seen I would be siding with the potential rather than the proven, purely for the fact that the proven does not look good enough.