It has been a long wait but at last the biggest 4 days in jump racing are upon us. It is the stuff of dreams for owners, trainers, jockeys, punters and spectators alike. This year, like all those that have gone before, will see many more dreams broken than realised. However, for all concerned, the inevitable prospect of defeat is but a small price to pay for the brilliant euphoria of victory. Nothing comes close to a winner at Cheltenham.
1.30 - William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle (2m) Grade 1
Darlan (11/2) - Travelling well when coming down 2 out in the Betfair Hurdle but I get the impression that he wasn't going as well as it looked. He found very little at Cheltenham back in December and there is still a question mark over how much he will find.
Steps To Freedom (7/1) - Has been near the head of the market since winning a Grade 2 at the course in November from Prospect Wells and Ericht. Neither rival has done much for the form since then but it was reported that he was a little over the top after a summer campaign, and didn't appreciate the tacky ground. He has had a long break since but going straight to Cheltenham without a run since November must be a negative, even if it was intentional, especially as the form looks weak.
Montbazon (15/2) - Has long been the apple of trainer Alan King's eye and is starting to fulfil that promise. Beaten by Colour Squadron on his hurdling bow and then won as he liked at Plumpton. He then won a good race at Newbury when Colour Squadron fell but I suspect the result might have been different had the Hobbs runner stood up.
Galileo's Choice (8/1) - Very smart on the flat and has shown a fair level of form over hurdles too. Just got up to win his maiden and then found only Sous Les Cieux too good in the Grade 1 Royal Bond. However, that rival has looked decidedly one-paced since and there must be question marks over just what he has achieved.
Cinders And Ashes (10/1) - A smart bumper performer last season but exposed at the very top level at both Cheltenham and Aintree. Reportedly strengthened considerably since then and has shown smart, if unspectacular, hurdles form. Has been beating up inferior opposition on soft ground and this will be a different test altogether. Both trainer and jockey seem to like him.
Trifolium (12/1) - Plenty of experience under his belt, but all on soft ground. Came right away to win a Grade 2 on heavy ground last time and if he can transfer that form to good then he must have a chance. Appeared to be the Gigginstown 2nd string behind Midnight Game but is the unexpected choice of Davy Russell after reports of a poor gallop from the Mullins horse.
Tetlami (14/1) - A Listed Bumper winner but then had a year off before making a successful hurdling debut at Sandown. He then beat the well regarded Vulcanite at Kempton and won a jumper's bumper back at the track on the all weather during the cold spell. Decent but likely that he might find a couple too good.
Prospect Wells (16/1) - Chased home Steps To Freedom at the course in November but has proved largely disappointing since. The pace and the ground were not in his favour in the Ladbroke and then he flopped when a late addition to the Tolworth. He suffered a breathing problem that day and not impossible that he will leave his form behind back on better ground off a strong pace. The choice of Ruby Walsh.
Colour Squadron (16/1) - Wide margin bumper winner and has shown decent hurdles form in all four starts but only won the once. I think he would have confirmed form with Montbazon had he not fallen last time but more concerning is his form behind Captain Conan. No doubt he should have won that day but that rival has done precious little for the form subsequently.
Midnight Game (16/1) - The first Pricewise selection and has shown improved form on each occasion. A smart horse on the flat and it might be that he is starting to put it together over hurdles too. However, reports emerged in an Irish Preview that Mullins had been unhappy with his work. Passed over by both Davy Russell and Ruby Walsh which must put a question mark over his chances.
Vulcanite (22/1) - The second Pricewise selection and well regarded at home but has come up short on both occasions when he has faced a decent rival (Tetlami and Montbazon). Won a weak race at Southwell in between but he needs to find a good deal more to figure. Another for whom a decent pace might bring about improvement.
Agent Archie (33/1) - Another for McCain but preference is for Cinders And Ashes. Winner of two average novice hurdles but both in facile fashion. Hard to weigh him up but given the vibes from connections he looks to be the second string.
Dylan Ross (40/1) - Has already gained the bridesmaid reputation after four consecutive second place finishes. Midnight Game comfortably had his measure last time and hard to see a form reversal. That is not to say that he couldn't outrun his odds.
Allure Of Illusion (40/1) - Rumoured that he was the Mullins Bumper horse last season but missed the cut for the Cheltenham race and could only finish 3rd at Aintree (behind Steps To Freedom and Montbazon). Has yet to show anything like the required level over hurdles but looks sure to find a good deal more on good ground. A lively outsider.
Distant Memories (50/1) - Another smart flat recruit but has done little over hurdles to suggest he can take a hand in a race such as this. Still an intriguing outsider because he could go well if transferring his flat form.
Hazy Tom (66/1) - Looked to be a smart prospect when racking up a four-timer in bumpers and hurdles. Upped in class the next twice and well beaten on both occasions. Will appreciate the better ground but has a good bit to find to take a hand.
Simenon (66/1) - A distant second behind easy winner Trifolium last time and a form reversal is hard to envisage. Not completely without a chance but will need to improve on what he has shown so far.
Jimbill (150/1) - Smashed by Barbatos at Cheltenham in January and that leaves him with a lot to find to trouble the principles. Hard to fancy.
Catch Tammy (300/1) - Yet to win a race and very unlikely to lose his maiden in this.
Conclusion - A very open renewal with reasons to oppose all of those at the head of the market. I'm not convinced by the form of any of the obvious choices and therefore am looking for one of the outsiders to spring a surprise. I was keen on the chances of Hinterland but he misses out after failing to sparkle recently. In his absence I have no strong fancy for anything in particular. At the prices, Colour Squadron looks overpriced at 16/1 considering he already holds a verdict over Montbazon who is half the price. There was no fluke about that victory and I am of the opinion that he would have beaten him for a second time at Newbury last time but for coming down at the 2nd last. Whilst that is a small concern it wasn't a heavy fall and at the price he is worth the chance. A strong pace will suit him well and he should find plenty of cover until late in the day and is sure to stay strongly.
The 14/1 offered by Skybet with 5 places EW up for grabs looks well worth an investment to get the Festival started in the best possible fashion.
1pt EW Colour Squadron at 14/1 with Skybet (5 places)
2.05 - Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (2m) Grade 1
Sprinter Sacre (10/11) - Has looked very good indeed in his three chase starts, winning hard held, and in a fast time, on each occasion with his jumping notably slick and quick too. He folded up the hill in last year's Supreme but has had a year to strengthen and a breathing operation which might see that ghost laid to rest this year. However, that is a small question mark and he could run keenly.
Al Ferof (10/3) - A thorough stayer who looks sure to improve for a step up in trip. He has nothing like the pace of Sprinter Sacre and found himself in top gear for the duration in the Grade 1 Victor Chandler. That was a fair effort in open company but seemed to confirm that he wasn't a Grade 1 2 mile chaser. He'll run well but I think he could be staying on too late.
Cue Card (15/2) - Brilliant winner of the bumper at the Festival but flopped when a short priced favourite for the Supreme last season. Has decent chase form in the book but his jumping has been unconvincing and I doubt his heart for a fight too.
Menorah (11/1) - Well fancied for the Champion Hurdle last year but could only finish 5th. His chasing career has been blighted by mistakes and will need to iron out those if he is to threaten the favourite. However, even with a perfect round of jumping, I'm not sure he's good enough.
Blackstairmountain (20/1) - A Grade 1 winner over hurdles and fences but flopped the last twice on soft ground. Sure to be seen to better effect on his favoured good ground but likely to be playing for a place at best.
Foildubh (125/1) - A decent animal with Graded form but hard to think he is good enough to take a hand in such a hot contest.
Conclusion - A small but very select field with the notable absences of Champion Hurdle second Peddlers Cross an obvious disappointment. Sprinter Sacre sets a very high standard and after the defection of Peddlers Cross to the Jewson I find it very hard to see him losing his unbeaten chasing record here. However, there are still small question marks about his suitability to the undulating Cheltenham track and his free-going nature might make him vulnerable to a stronger stayer up the hill. Al Ferof looks the most likely alternative but found things happening too quickly in the Victor Chandler and I expect the same to happen here. Not a betting race now except for the Paddy Power offer which must be done. Al Ferof, for all that I don't really fancy him, looks the most likely to take advantage should the favourite disappoint.
2.40 - JLT Speciality Handicap Chase (3m) Grade 3
I have had Quantitativeeasing in mind for this race since his win in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham. However, I suspect he will go well without winning because it will be some ask to defy his welter burden.
Hold On Julio is the obvious choice and it is not hard to see why. He won a Sandown handicap with any amount in hand last time with some indifferent jumping to boot. He has also had an interrupted preparation which is another question mark. They may be slight concerns but he could still well be ahead of the handicapper and might be worth the risk. I wouldn't wish to put you off.
One I like at the prices is Baile Anrai, another slightly risky proposition. He was still mixing it with the best in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown at Ascot last month when coming down 3 out. His jumping had been satisfactory up until that point but he also came down behind Silviniaco Conti at Wincanton earlier in the season. Those two effort bookend two wins and he looks to be on a fair mark. He also showed good form over hurdles when chasing home Fingal Bay in the Persian War in October.
The second selection is Fruity O'Rooney, a progressive animal who has shown marked improvement since moving up to 3m. He also handles good ground well and a mark of 140 doesn't look beyond him. He looks overpriced considering he would have finished much closer in the Skybet Chase but for his saddle slipping close home. He might well have won that day but gets in here of the same mark. Gary Moore has put him away since then and knows how to lay one out for a big race. 20/1 looks a nice price.
Betfred and Totesport are offering 5 places and that offers an extra place insurance. However, at the prices I'd rather take a bigger price and settle for the 4 places.
1pt EW Baile Anrai at 14/1 with various
1pt EW Fruity O'Rooney at 20/1 with various
3.20 - Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (2m) Grade 1
Hurricane Fly (10/11) - Arguably the best 2m hurdler since Istabraq and his record speaks for itself. Silenced the doubters in emphatic fashion last year and then destroyed the opposition at Punchestown. His seasonal return was delayed after he was reported as failing to please his trainer Willie Mullins before Christmas. He bounced back in no uncertain terms with a facile win in the Irish Champion back in January. He ticks all the boxes and there will be more than a few long faces if he tastes defeat, mine included.
Binocular (5/1) - Winner of this race in 2010 but wasn't able to defend his crown last year. He has looked a shadow of himself for much of the spell since his Champion win but showed signs of coming back to form at Wincanton last time. It wasn't what he beat but how he did it that impressed. He travelled well and jumped slickly to score easily from Celestial Halo. A threat to the favourite if he shows his best.
Zarkandar (7/1) - Hugely likeable and a personal favourite after landing the odds on all four hurdles starts, carrying my money on each occasion. His Betfair win was hardly impressive but everything went against him that day and it is to his credit that he emerged victorious at all. He needs to show more but that looks likely. He will need a strong gallop to bring his stamina into play but with Overturn and Celestial Halo in the field that is probable. Few will be staying on stronger.
Rock On Ruby (10/1) - Never seen as a Champion Hurdle prospect but has improved enormously this season. An easy winner of the Gerry Fielden at Newbury off a mark of 145 and then improved again to push Binocular close in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. Cheltenham promises to suit him far better and he is not without a chance.
Oscars Well (14/1) - Travelled notably well in the Neptune last year before losing all chance at the last. Has yet to get his head in front this season but fancied by many, including Mr Segal, to run a good race in this. Good ground and a strong pace will be to his liking but needs to show a good deal more.
Overturn (28/1) - A fantastic little horse who gives his all from the front. The good ground will suit him well and he could take some catching if he's in tip top shape. However, there are plenty of strong stayers in this race and it's likely that he will set it up for the others.
Zaidpour (33/1) - A no show in the Supreme but Mullins is certain that he lost him physically after his scintillating win in the Royal Bond. Has won 4 easy races this season and it wouldn't be a massive surprise if he outran his odds. A preference for softer going would be the concern.
Brampour (66/1) - Racked up a quickfire double in two competitive handicaps early in the season, including the Greatwood. Then chased home Grandouet and Overturn in the International. Has since been a touch disappointing and it is hard to think he has the requisite class to trouble the market leaders.
Celestial Halo (80/1) - Very close to breaking Nicholls' Champion Hurdle duck back in 2009 when finishing 2nd to Punjabi with Binocular close behind in 3rd. Only 4th the following year and he just falls short of the very top level. He might benefit from the presence of Overturn because he won't have to make his own running. Could go well but likely to find at least a few too good.
Kalann (200/1) - A winner at the course in November but that was in a completely different league to this contest. His form since suggests he's likely to struggle.
Conclusion - Anything but a comprehensive victory for the reigning Champion Hurricane Fly will be a disappointment. In Binocular, Zarkandar, Rock On Ruby and Oscars Well he faces 4 excellent opponents but defeat his hard to envisage. He should win to confirm his status amongst the best 2m hurdlers.
Corals are going Evens tomorrow morning and that is a price worth taking.
5pts Win Hurricane Fly at 5/4 Antepost
2pts Win Hurricane Fly at 3/1 Antepost
1pt EW Zarkandar at 8/1 Antepost
1pt EW Binocular at 8/1 Antepost
4.00 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase (3m7f)
Not a race I usually get involved in but the Irish look to have a stranglehold once again with Scotsirish, Uncle Junior, Sizing Australia and Garde Champetre heading the market. Willie Mullins looks to hold the aces in the pack and there can be no doubt that Scotsirish is the class act. Stamina over the extended trip must be a slight concern but he is adapted to the unique test remarkably well and his form at 2m (6 1/2 lengths behind Big Zeb in a Grade 1 this season) will stand him in good stead in the usual sprint finish. He won with plenty in hand at Punchestown and will take the beating again. He could easily make a mockery of his price of 7/2.
1pt Win Scotsirish at 7/2 with various
4.40 - OLBG Maress Hurdle (2m4f) Grade 2
Quevega is impossible to oppose for win purposes. She has stones in hand over the rest and provided she retains her ability, a small question mark but a question mark nevertheless, she will win with her head in her chest once again.
I am a big fan of Swincombe Flame but I suspect this is tougher than Nick Williams expected. She is a really game mare and is sure to run a big race but might find this test sharp enough on the good ground. I am tempted to give her a chance because she's on the upgrade but will leave her alone under conditions.
At a bigger price the one for a small EW interest is Shop DJ. She showed smart form over hurdles last season and has not been disgraced over fences this season either. She needs to find ton to trouble the favourite but has nothing to find with the rest, including those ahead of her in the market. Davy Russell gave her a glowing report in the Boylesports Preview and at 20/1 she is worth an EW investment against the favourite.
1pt EW Shop DJ at 20/1 with various
5.15 - Pulteney Land Investments Novices' Handicap Chase (2m4f) Listed
A very competitive renewal with many runners sporting a decent selection of '1s' by their names. Bottom weight is only 11-4 indicating how tight this handicap is. Hunt Ball heads the weights and it would be a fairytale if he could win at Cheltenham for his eccentric owner Anthony Knott. He started the season off a mark of 69 back in November at Folkestone and now bids to defy 142 at the Cheltenham Festival. It's by no means an impossibility given the way he won at Kempton last month. I'd love to see him win but am happy to oppose him.
Bless The Wings was a convincing winner over course and distance back in January. An 8lbs rise doesn't look insurmountable and he is worth plenty of respect. Triolo D'Alene has been the talking horse since his win at Ascot. He could be the handicap blot but I'm not convinced give his Ascot performance that he's lobbed in and am happy to oppose him at the prices. Charminster was 4th behind Bless The Wings and could go well if putting in a better round of jumping. Donald McCain did say that he found everything happening a bit faster than usual that day and if that experience has done him good then he's not to be discounted. A Venetia Williams handicapper under a penalty is always worthy of respect and Carrickboy fits the bill.
The one I like at the prices is Going Wrong. Ferdy Murphy has a remarkable record in Cheltenham handicaps and it is surprising that this one is not significantly shorter. Divers won the race last year and he looks to have laid this one out for a repeat bid. He has been well touted at a few Preview Evenings and looks worthy of support at 12/1.
Another, and one who is a bit of a cliff horse for me, is Vino Griego. Thankfully I haven't backed him this season but he finished 4th in this last year off a 2lb higher mark and has shown signs that he could go well in this again. He travelled well before tiring late on over 3m at Ascot and at Taunton. He has had a hurdles spin to put him spot on for this and he might just put in a bold bid. At 25/1 he is worth a small chance.
1pt EW Going Wrong at 12/1 with various
0.5pts EW Vino Griego at 25/1 with various
Other Bets
2pts Win Treble Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly and Quevega at 4.24/1 with Paddy Power
And, as it's Cheltenham, Steve Palmer's now famous 'face-spitter' has to come into play.
EW Accumulator: Colour Squadron, Sprinter Sacre, Fruity O'Rooney, Hurricane Fly, Scotirish, Quevega, Going Wrong
And various multiples with the above selections to boot.
Best of luck to everyone. At least the waiting is nearly over.
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