Cheltenham Review - Tuesday

Supreme

Cinders And Ashes ran out a ready winner of the Supreme, despite a blunder at the last. I couldn't have had him on the form he had shown this season. He had done little to persuade me he was better than the horse that was exposed at the top level in Bumpers last season. However, he was the clear paddock pick to my eye, and I considered him worthy of an EW investment as a result. I had no strong opinion on who would win from a form angle so was happy to back who looked like they could after a paddock inspection. It was very tight in behind for the next 4 places, with Darlan staying on strongly up the hill. I promise you he was but I wouldn't have believed it myself. Perhaps the bridle horse label has been attached prematurely. My initial impression was that the winner was definitely the horse to take out of the race. That might seem obvious but it isn't always the case. Those in behind finished in a bit of a heap, something I never like to see in such a contest. It usually means that none of them are very good, rather than they all are. I didn't think it was the best renewal before the race and would be inclined to stick to that view for the time being. However, the winner was nicely clear, despite his last flight mistake, and I would give him a chance in open company. He has a bit to find to be challenging for top honours against the established stars but a Champion Hurdle campaign appears entirely reasonable. He should improve again and is another one for the McCain/Maguire team to go to war with next season.

Arkle

Sprinter Sacre was exceptional in the Arkle, treating his opposition with contempt. With the established 2m division looking threadbare at the top the time is ripe for a new young superstar to fill the void. He looks well up to the job. However, it is impossible to look upon quotes of no bigger than 11/8 with anything but incredulity. He might look brilliant but the very fact that Big Buck's can be backed at 2/1 for the 2013 World Hurdle tells its own story. A horse that just might be great at 11/8 or a horse that undoubtedly is at 2/1. Cue Card was no match for the winner and I just think he might become hard to place. I'm unconvinced he is a Grade 1 animal, especially whilst his conqueror is around. It might be that he finds a niche up in trip because he wasn't stopping up the hill but opportunities would appear limited unless he can find the necessary improvement for the top tier 2m races. That seems unlikely. Al Ferof was running a fair race before making a bad blunder at the top of the hill. That cost him all chance which was a shame because it would have been interesting to see whether he could have given the winner any sort of race. He will be seen to better effect over further even if he still seems to lack that little something. He's very good but I don't think he's brilliant. The X factor he has not, something that the winner has in spades.

Champion Hurdle

Rock On Ruby can hardly be described as a fortunate winner of the Champion Hurdle in that he looked well in command from some way out under a fine ride from the excellent Noel Fehily. However, the fact that both he and Overturn (2nd), were the leading duo throughout sits a little uncomfortably. Overturn had previously appeared exposed at the very highest level, and it could be that he improved for coming here fresh (a deliberate ploy). Even if he hasn't, the winner was a convincing one and quite possibly underrated. There was some 10/1 lurking for a repeat in the immediate aftermath which looked big given the manner of success. The current 6/1 best price looks nearer the mark. I somehow suspect the chasing idea might now be put on hold and this progressive horse is worthy of strong consideration should he return to defend his crown next season. The overriding impression was that the test that the Champion Hurdle represents was absolutely ideal for him. 

Hurricane Fly, the hot favourite, was backed into 4/6 but never looked like rewarding that faith. His billing as the 'best since Istabraq' might now seem a little premature. He is a very good animal and will no doubt clean up many more Irish Grade 1s before he is done, but whether he had an off day, or whether he was found out by the Championship pace (slowly run last year) must be open to question. I wouldn't rule him out but neither would I be in any rush to back him to regain his title as a 9yo in 2013. 

My immediate impression was that the other jockeys had allowed Noel Fehily and Jason Maguire too much rope at the head of affairs. I think it is true to a certain extent but I don't think it can be an explanation for their defeat. They had every chance to win the race if they were good enough. In this regard, comments put forward in the BHA Handicapper's Blog are of interest. It was suggested that the softer ground down the back straight played into the hands of the front runners who were able to quicken turning down the hill, leaving those in behind trying to quicken with them on the softer going. In truth I think it is a small point but, with both (ground and riding) taken together it is possible that the distance of defeat might have been exaggerated. However, I think it is very hard to argue anything other than Rock On Ruby being a worthy winner. To my eye it was a convincing success.

Of the rest, Overturn ran yet another splendid race in 2nd. I keep saying it, but what a horse he would be to own. Binocular followed Hurricane Fly throughout and never looked like getting past him, let along the ones in front. Zarkandar fairly finished like the proverbial train close home having been caught flat footed when the pace quickened down the hill. I was surprised to see him positioned so far back because his two key attributes are stamina and the ability to produce a gradual but powerful finishing kick. He was ridden for a turn off foot and was predictably found wanting. His effort still deserves credit considering he was affected by the Ditcheat cough, and ran in the Betfair Hurdle whilst under its cloud. He is still only 5, has only the 5 hurdle starts to his name, and, with another year on his back, a bit more experience, he could be one to watch. The downside is that it would appear a flat out gallop is an essential for this thoroughly likeable horse. Should he get his conditions then he could be a big player in 12 months time.

I wrote the above (with the exception of the BHA Handicapper's Blog comments) on Sunday, and that includes the comments about how Zarkandar was ridden. It was, therefore, pleasing to see Nicholls himself comment "In hindsight, Zarkandar could have been ridden closer to the pace in the Champion Hurdle but he finished strongly into fifth, probably running a career-best, and a longer trip will suit him" in his Betfair Blog. I would agree, however, I don't think a longer trip is essential. I am sure that he can be fully effective at the minimum, on the proviso that the pace is quick. And this might be the sticking point because he is liable to be caught out in a dawdling gallop. I hope that he is given his chance in next year's race because I believe he is capable of better than he showed and seems sure to benefit from another year for both experience and physical development. 

And, on that subject, what a race it promises to be. Rock On Ruby returning to defend his crown, Hurricane Fly and Binocular to regain theirs, Zarkandar having another try, plus the absentees (Spirit Son and Grandouet), plus some old faces returning (Peddlers Cross) and the inevitable batch of up and comers (Cinders And Ashes et al) and it has all the ingredients for a riveting race.

Mares' Hurdle

After the disappointment of Hurricane Fly, and a disaster in the XC, it was left to Quevega to get the Mullins bandwagon rolling. She proved more than up to the task, running out a predictably easy winner in a slowly run affair. She was 4 lengths clear at the finish and the fact that the distances between the next 10 in behind her were a neck, a neck, a neck, a 1/2 length, a 3/4 length, a head, a short head, a 1/2 length and a 1/2 length emphasises her dominance. It really was a case of Quevega 1st and daylight 2nd. Provided that Willie Mullins is able to get her back in peak form in 12 months time a 5th win looks a certainty. She is a long way clear of the rest.

Novice Handicap Chase

I don't intend to review the handicaps but no reflection on the 2012 Festival would be complete without at least a mention of Hunt Ball. This horse started the season back on 28th November when winning off a mark of 69. He has since won another 6 races and, most astonishingly of all, was beaten off a mark of 102 on 2nd January! The fact that he was able to run out such an impressive winner of a Cheltenham handicap off of 142 is a remarkable story. His rating will rise to 154 but you can be quite sure that his equally likeable owner, Anthony Knott, doesn't see the story finishing just yet. He is quoted as short as 20/1 for the 2013 Gold Cup and, whilst he still has a good bit to find to trouble the judge in such a race, he doesn't need to find very much at all to make his mark in graded races this or next season. I hope he can make the jump.