Cheltenham Review - Wednesday

National Hunt Chase

Another open looking race on paper to start the card, and another in which I relied on paddock appearance to point me in the direction of the winner. The trick had worked a treat with Cinder And Ashes in the Supreme the previous day and I thought I was going to strike again with Four Commanders leading at the last. In the end, a slight blunder cost him valuable momentum and he was to finish 3rd to reward the EW support at 12/1. In front of him were Teaforthree, the favourite, and Harry The Viking, my long term fancy for the race. Only 10 of the 19 to face the starter managed to complete the course, with both of the well fancied Willie Mullins contenders notable departures. Allee Garde fell at the 12th, bringing down stablemate Soll in the process. However, that aside, the result looked fair and there can be little doubt that three promising stayers came to the fore. I do like Harry The Viking and feel sure he can win a big staying race in the future. Something like the Scottish National would look ideal and, although a rise in the weights from 137 to 143 will make things tougher, that should be within his compass. Any marathon on good ground and he will be worthy of support. And the same comment applies to the 3rd Four Commanders too. I see that the Irish National is his intended target and I would certainly be looking to support him there should the ground be near good.

Neptune Novices' Hurdle

After the late injury to Fingal Bay and the defection of Boston Bob to the Albert Bartlett Simonsig was a warm order to finally give trainer Nicky Henderson a first winner in the race. Truth be told, there was never a moment's worry for his backers during the race, although the same cannot be said of the bumpy ride to Cheltenham! 

I had backed him antepost at 14/1 after a visit to Seven Barrows in January. I was already a fan of his (admittedly favouring the Supreme) and I was pleased to find that they held him in the highest regard too. I was, however, assured that the Neptune was his intended target so felt compelled to invest at what looked a sensational price. A facile win in the Morebattle Hurdle, and a growing consensus that the Supreme was the easier race, put his target into some doubt. In the immediate aftermath of the Kelso race it seemed inevitable that he would run in the Supreme but it later emerged that Geraghty favoured the Neptune and from there on in, the longer race appeared favourite. 

If the build-up had been an emotional roller-coaster, the race itself was anything but. He travelled with all his usual zest, absolutely hacked down the hill as everything else started to feel the pinch, was then left in front (far too early) by the departure of Cotton Mill, but from there on was always in complete command. Foolishly (in hindsight) at least, I had put in an in-running lay at 2.0 to recover my stake (some were doubting his ability to stay and battle, if required) so was cheering him home without a worry from a long way out. He made smooth and effortless progress through the field down the back straight and it was noticeable that as everything else was starting to be niggled along, Barry Geraghty was still taking a pull on the winner. It was an exceptional performance, leaving good horses trailing in his wake, in a very fast time, and all unextended. 

Whilst the race was diminished by the absence of Fingal Bay and Boston Bob, I find it hard to believe that the result would have been any different. It was after all the best novice hurdling performance (162 RPR) since the brilliant but ill-fated Monsignor (164 RPR) had won the same race back in 2000. 

Some have suggested the Champion Hurdle but I find it very hard to believe that Nicky Henderson will waste another year over hurdles with him. He looks like his jumping will improve for a fence (hurdles seem to get in his way) and I cannot wait to see him try. Assuming he will adjust to the bigger obstacles, and I think he will, he will take some stopping in the Arkle next season. He has a potent blend of speed and stamina and one hell of an engine to go with it. His trainer has already christened the brilliant Sprinter Sacre as the 'black aeroplane' and did suggest that this one might be the 'grey aeroplane'. Their free-going brilliance is certainly comparable and I can only hope that the grey follows in the footsteps of the 'black' next season. He is already a far superior hurdler (OR 157 for Simonsig and OR 149 for Sprinter Sacre), so he has every chance of being something a bit special in whichever direction they choose to go. Henderson did even suggest that he has the pace for the flat and he'd be a tough nut to crack in the Ascot Gold Cup. Rite Of Passage could only finish 3rd in the Neptune (OR 144) before winning the Royal Ascot showpiece so you would think that Simonsig has the ability. However, I somehow suspect connections will be dreaming of Cheltenham in 12 months time rather than Ascot this summer.

The one disappointment is how no bookmaker is prepared to offer anything bigger than 4/1 for a horse that has yet to fun over fences (Points excluded) and has yet to run over 2m. As you can no doubt tell, I am his biggest supporter, and have been for some time, but even I can't be tempted at that price. Hopefully somebody will offer something a little more tempting at some stage.

It was a performance of such dominance that it is hard to see anything in behind getting close to him in the future. Cotton Mill was probably the paddock pick and I would have been tempted with an EW wager at 14/1. But, by that late stage, the money had already come and he was no bigger than his 8/1 SP. He was in the process of running a fine race before unshipping Denis O'Regan at the 2nd last but the winner was travelling far better on his outside at the time. Felix Yonger proved best of the Mullins trio, not particularly surprising in itself. Monksland was in the process of closing when hampered by Cotton Mill but Carberry was niggling away so you fancy he would have been playing for place money regardless. Yet again Sous Les Cieux ran a curious race, appearing outpaced before plugging on. I am surprised that connections have persevered with the hold up tactics as he seems to lack any change of gear. I know he flopped when asked to make all in the Future Champions over Christmas but I would have thought that settling him handy would have seen him finish closer. There are no doubt a number of smart prospects lurking in behind but the winner looks a cut above and could be very very good indeed.

RSA Chase

I couldn't have got this one more wrong if I'd tried. The stats were heavily against Grands Crus, but stats are there to be broken, right? Wrong, as it happens. Grands Crus flops in 5th, and the slow boat, poor jumper, but trends horse Bobs Worth puts in an immaculate round of jumping to win convincingly. I backed Grands Crus to win (in a double with Sizing Europe) but am now glad he ran because I would have laid Bobs Worth all day long at a short price in his absence. I couldn't have had him at all after some moderate jumping throughout his fencing career. For the paddock pick I would have just sided with First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris again to add to Four Commanders). He looked primed to the minute and improved greatly on anything he had previously shown over fences, probably as a result of the good ground he relishes. He travelled very keenly through the race and I wonder whether a return to 2m5f (Neptune winner last year) for the Ryanair might be his aim next season. I think he stays alright but he travelled too strongly in this and the extra quarter mile might be too much. The winner is now no bigger than 8/1 for the Gold Cup next season but I can't see any value in taking that price because, like this season, it might be that he arrives at Cheltenham on the back of a string of defeats in unsuitable circumstances. This was an impressive win but I still doubt whether he is genuine Gold Cup material. He might be entering a weak division but there are others that I prefer at this stage. One who was no bigger than 8/1 for this year's Gold Cup was Grands Crus. He came with the exact opposite profile to Bobs Worth, with a string of impressive wins to his name. Whether he failed to fire, whether he failed to stay (as some had suggested before the race) or whatever, he must now have questions to answer. I find it hard to believe that this was his true running given that he beat Bobs Worth in convincing fashion in the Feltham on Boxing Day. It might be that he was suited by that test, and it seems certain that Bobs Worth was unsuited at the very least. He still has huge potential but it will be interesting to see where connections go with him now.

Champion Chase

The Champion Chase was the easiest race to sort out of the entire week. Big Zeb was too old and had lost his form, Finian's Rainbow was always exposed by a strong gallop and finished weakly, Wishfull Thinking was out of form, and I'm So Lucky, Gauvain and Realt Dubh were not good enough. That left the first two from the Tingle Creek in December to fight out the finish once again. Wrong again. Kauto Stone was a first fence faller, disappointing in itself but made significantly worse by the gaping distance between the front two and Big Zeb back in 3rd. I still think he would have had a decent chance of filling it. 

I must confess that I found it impossible to envisage defeat for Sizing Europe, however, after burning half my fingers on Hurricane Fly the previous day, decided against 'lumping on'. That was a good decision. I was hurt much less financially than might have been the case but I was still absolutely amazed at the result, and I still am in all honesty. 

The final fence fiasco (FFF) quite clearly didn't help but Finian's Rainbow was ultimately well on top at the line and I find it difficult to accept that Sizing Europe was an unlucky loser. I'd be much happier if I thought he was because that would at least give me some consolation that 'I was right' but was robbed by pure rotten misfortune. I don't think I was though. The FFF did cost Sizing Europe ground but I am not convinced it was the difference between victory and defeat. 

For followers of my antepost advice it was a bit of a result. I said the following on the 4th January "8/1 [about Finian's Rainbow] might look a big price if he wins [the Victor Chandler], but it might look pretty poor if he doesn't. However, if he doesn't win that would make Sizing Europe look like banker material. It is hard to see Sizing Europe getting any bigger (indeed 11/4 looks more than fair and unlikely to last long) and Finian's Rainbow will either shorten or be a write off after the Victor Chandler. Therefore, a dutching win bet would be the best advice. Whatever the outcome in the Victor Chandler a strong position will be guaranteed". Did I follow my own advice? No. Should I have done? Yes. I hope you were more sensible.

The race was unsatisfactory, the division looks weak, and the time is ripe for a new superstar to emerge. Finian's Rainbow will be 10 next season, Sizing Europe 11, so it is some good fortune that Sprinter Sacre is waiting in the wings. He might be just the standard bearer that the 2m chasers need. The only danger I can see in any antepost lists is Sanctuaire. He's a risky proposition but he has looked exciting in his first two starts over fences. I will consider a little at 50/1 before he runs at Aintree depending on the opposition. 

Champion Bumper

New Year's Eve looked the real deal in the paddock and he probably is. He came there to win the race rounding the home turn but could never quite get there before weakening close home. He is only 4 so this was a brave and promising effort. It will be interesting to see what John Ferguson has in mind for him. The other two to come clear with him were the Mullins duo of Champagne Fever and Pique Sous. The word beforehand had been that Mullins' bumper crop wasn't up to his usual standards and both were relatively friendless in the market. How wrong everybody was. The winner was Champagne Fever who looked a big raw soft ground chaser in the making which made his fantastic front running effort all the more creditable. He has huge potential once he fills his frame and faces a fence in time. Willie Mullins has even suggested that he might go chasing next season, missing out on novice hurdles, because that is where his future lies. Pique Sous travelled well but never looked like getting on terms with the winner.