Monday, 2 January 2012

Cheltenham Conclusions

Some terrific racing but a largely frustrating day for the wallet. I felt the decisions were the correct ones but the obstacles definitely found themselves standing firmly in the way of the selections. Oscar Whisky was once again the saviour.

The first horse I backed was the Henderson newcomer Master Of The Game in the Novice Hurdle. This was based predominantly on his paddock appearance, and on the stable confidence behind the horse. I had intended not to have a bet but having studied the runners in the pre-parade ring it was impossible not to be impressed with this one. They were in general a decent bunch but he stood out head and shoulders above the remainder. In the race he ran very green, jumping big over his hurdles and a little clumsily in places, but was still there at the bottom of the hill. Ultimately he tired late on to finish a well beaten 11th of the 14 runners. That was in no way a reflection of his ability and I would be sure that he is far better than this. Barry Geraghty was notably easy on him once his chance had gone and let him come home in his own time. He should benefit from the experience and given the way he looks, fences will be the making of him. He remains a nice prospect.

The winner was Barbotos, who came readily clear up the hill to finish 7 lengths clear of his rivals. This was a massive boost to the Fingal Bay form. Barbotos had been a comfortable 3 and a half lengths behind the Hobbs star at Cheltenham and then 19 lengths behind him at Sandown. Fingal bay himself was only workmanlike when gaining his first Grade 1 success in the Challow but his form continues to have a strong look about it. Wherever he goes at the Festival he will demand the utmost respect, especially, in my opinion at least, he goes for the Albert Bartlett.

The Dipper was a frustrating race in that Sonofvic was never able to show what he was capable of. Solix ran well in defeat but ultimately Champion Court, a horse I put up last time, was too strong up the Cheltenham hill. His trainer, Martin Keighley, nominated the RSA (if Grands Crus runs in the Gold Cup) or a handicap as possible Festival targets for his charge but I am surprised that the Jewson is not at least under consideration. This was his best form and he seems to have no problem with the trip. His accurate jumping a front running style would be ideally suited to that race. The same tactics would be a big ask over 3 miles in the RSA.

Sonofvic is not one to write off just yet. His jumping was sloppy more than anything else. He looked like he was just going a shade quicker than he would have liked during the race and a return to 3m might be the answer. My impression was that Ruby was happy with both where he was and how he was going when he lost all chance at the top of the hill. He had closed noticeably on the leaders and I felt that he was still very much in with a shout. I must also mention Ruby's quite remarkable recovery. How he was able to retain the partnership I will never know. My immediate thought was that the 34 available that evening (now 27) on Betfair for the RSA was huge. He is clearly a better horse at home than the same stable's Join Together (12) by the fact that Nicholls originally nominated the 4 miler as a Festival target. However, the fact that he hasn't lost his novice status, the fact that he is still very raw and unfurnished, and the fact that it is January already, it would be no surprise if he was put away until next season. That decision might be made easier by the fact that Nicholls has Join Together and Silviniaco Conti to call upon for the RSA already. It will be interesting to see what Nicholls does with him now.

Invictus was a slight disappointment and it was later reported that he had lost a show. He could well be better than this but my suspicion (both before and after this race) was that he was flattered by his first two efforts. That might be unfair and I am sure time will provide the answer.

As expected Saint Are and Sybarite are likely to appreciate a stiffer test of stamina.

The 3m2f Handicap fell apart at the seams as Brendan Powell and Wayne Hutchinson fought out a fantastic duel before falling in a heap when meeting the rising ground. Mostly Bob stayed on well, as did Mon Mome, but it is hard to think the race will provide too many winners as the season progresses.

The Victor Chandler Handicap Chase was almost immediately marred by the tragic loss of Hidden Keel after the first fence. I know a few people connected to the Longsdon yard and they were all unanimous in their belief that this horse was one of real quality. It is devastating for the yard that their flagship horse will be unable to show everyone else what he was capable of. In the end I left Havingotascoobydo alone because the price had well and truly gone by the time I reached the rails. I was fortunate with him coming down at the 3rd. He is still worth backing next time if encountering similar conditions. The other horse I backed was Micheal Flips. He was travelling well in midfield when making a jolting error at the 10th. he lost his position as a result and could never recover. He did stay on and might be worth considering next time. The winner was Calgary bay who finally ended a string of placed efforts. He hasn't fallen in the handicap and conditions were not drastically different to anything he has encountered before. Therefore, the fact that he was able to win might mean the race wasn't the strongest. That would be my inclination, especially with the unfancied duo of Hector's Choice and Matuhi in 2nd and 3rd. Both Ghizao and Hell's Bay have increasingly large question marks by their names.

The 3m Handicap Hurdle lost much of it's allure when hot favourite Oscargo came down at the 6th. I am still uncertain quite why he blundered so badly but it was enough to unship Ruby Walsh, no mean feat given his heroics aboard Sonofvic. That left Houblon Des Obeaux and Kayf Aramis to fight out a wonderful duel up the hill. They were stuck right together until literally yards before the line when the Venetia Williams trained 5yo just got on top. Given Oscargo's previous form with Kayf Aramis it is hard not to think that the Nicholls charge would not have been in front if standing up. We will never know for certain but the result merely confirmed my belief that Oscargo was the best in the race. He is still one to keep in the notebook. Tidal Bay ran a decent race on his first start for Paul Nicholls, never really threatening the leading duo, but staying on well after briefly looking like he might drop away. He is entitled to improve for the run but may face a tough ask next time if heading to the Argento where he is likely to meet Grands Crus.

Oscar Whisky was a class apart in the Cheltenham and Three Counties Hurdle. How he was allowed to go off at 4/6 I will never know. It is easy to say in hindsight but that might just be the best value available all season. in my book he was a 1/5 shot. Poungach, his main rival, looks a staying chaser in the making. He is a lovely individual and is sure to make his mark when he is sent over fences. He faced an impossible task here but stayed on pleasingly even if he couldn't get the favourite off the bridle. 3m and fences will surely see him to best effect.

The Bumper was as open as it looked on paper for much of the race with any number holding chances approaching the final furlong. In the end it was the Twiston Davies trained The New One who triumphed under a penalty. The hot favourite, Trespasser, never threatened to get involved for Jack Quinlan and either his Taunton form is overrated or he was below par. At this stage it is impossible to draw any firm conclusion but perhaps it is more likely to be the former. The first newcomer home was Virginia Ash for Colin Tizzard and he should find a decent opportunity later in the season.


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