The Arkle

One of my very favourite races and this season's renewal looks right out the top drawer. I was convinced that I knew who the winner was before any of them had even jumped a fence. The answer to the problem was surely Peddlers Cross. He looked the ideal candidate in every possible way, but, after his crushing defeat at the hands of Sprinter Sacre, I must admit to being a little less confident than I was. That is not to say that I think he is a lost cause. Far from it, and I still believe there are plenty of reasons to think that the form can be reversed in March.The Henderson horse looked exceptional that day and he will be a tough nut to crack but there is one potential weakness in particular that I think might count against him in this.

When assessing a race, I like to treat each horse on their merits, rather than being too tied up with 'stats' and 'trends'. I am very much from the 'they are there to be broken' camp. However, when looking back at past winners of the Arkle one crucial similarity immediately jumps out. The last 6 winners are Captain Chris, Sizing Europe, Forpadydeplasterer, Tidal Bay, My Way De Solzen and Voy Por Ustedes. The attribute that links these 6 is stamina. They are all effective at 2m but all of them stay further. Last season I am quite sure Finian's Rainbow was the best potential 2m chaser around, but he was not able to win the Arkle. Instead the stronger stayer Captain Chris was triumphant up the Cheltenham hill. This is maybe overlooked, but its importance cannot be doubted given the overwhelming evidence in support.

Sprinter Sacre (5/2) - Always held in the highest regard at Seven Barrows, and always seen as a chaser in the making. He travelled ominously well in the Supreme but tired late on, blundered at the last, to finish only 3rd. He has jumped extravagantly well on both chase starts, particularly at Kempton when he destroyed Peddlers Cross. He has pace and scope to burn and looks a hugely exciting prospect. In the main, his credentials are difficult to fault but, and I had this view even before he had jumped a fence, he potentially falls down in the one crucial area outlined above. He was a weak horse last season and has no doubt strengthened over the summer, but, nevertheless, his finishing effort in the Supreme and how he came up the hill, or rather how he didn't come up the hill, simply must be a concern to his supporters. It was inconceivable that he would finish a 7 length 3rd coming round the home turn. He went from travelling apparently strongly to treading water in a matter of strides. I have watched the replay many times and he loses in excess of 10 lengths on Al Ferof from the second last to the line. Al Ferof was outpaced in the race so it was not Al Ferof finishing quickly, it was Sprinter Sacre stopping in front. Another doubt is that he has yet to face a battle. He has either won on the bridle or been beaten and his stomach for a fight is at best untested. He found little off the bridle in the Supreme and, because of his free running nature, might always appear to have more in hand than he actually does. On the Kempton evidence he might be good enough to win this without coming off the bridle, but that question mark, plus the much more significant concern about the hill, mean he is opposable at a short price.

Peddlers Cross (6/1) -After his fantastic effort in defeat behind Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle I was utterly convinced that he would win the Arkle this season. The strongly run 2m, with an emphasis on stamina as well as speed, looked tailor made for him. I was also confident that his jumping would be good. And, on both starts at Bangor he looked very good too. He jumped quickly and efficiently, far less flamboyant than Sprinter Sacre, but very satisfactory indeed. That was no surprise because he strikes me as an intelligent horse who knows where his legs are. That all went to pot at Kempton when he belted the first and I think he lost the race there and then. He was always playing catch up as Sprinter Sacre blazed away in front and was never able to bridge the gap. That sharp speed test was never going to play to his strengths and he lost confidence after the first fence mistake. I am sure he jumped the first at Kempton exactly like he jumped at Bangor but was caught out by the stiffer fences. In hindsight it might be suggested that running twice at Bangor was a mistake. He was rattled by that mistake and a bit big and cautious at a few thereafter. He still jumped adequately when he was spot on, but lost ground when he was wrong. That does not concern me greatly because I am sure he will learn from the experience. With that behind him I see no reason  why he cannot jump as fluently as he did on both occasions at Bangor. His Festival form is exceptionally strong, winning the Neptune and finding only Hurricane Fly too good in the Champion Hurdle last season. He relishes the test that the Cheltenham hill provides. The Arkle should, therefore, suit ideally, which cannot be said for his main rival Sprinter Sacre. That one might simply be too good for him, but I find it hard to believe that he is even 10 lengths superior and the Cheltenham hill will give Peddlers Cross every chance of bridging the gap. Furthermore, Donald McCain has since reported that a few issues came to light after the Kempton race. Once those are dealt with I am sure we will see a different horse at Cheltenham.

Al Ferof (7/1) - He is another who fits the stayers profile after finishing strongest of all in the Supreme. He has taken well to fences, jumping with aplomb on both occasions at Cheltenham and Sandown, two of the most difficult tracks. Although he won the Grade 1 Henry VIII at Sandown it was not in impressive fashion. He was made to work hard by For Non Stop, but what was pleasing was the way he negotiated an infamously tricky course. Paul Nicholls originally suggested that the Jewson over 2m5f might be his target but it now appears that the Champion Chase is the main alternative. He is entered in the Victor Chandler at Ascot where he will face Finian's Rainbow. That will tell us more about both where he stands, and where the novices in general stand against the older horses. He, like Peddlers Cross, will be suited by the fast pace, good ground and stiff finish that Cheltenham will most likely provide. However, I think Peddlers Cross has a touch more pace, and will be staying on at least as well at the finish. If he jumps well then he can definitely be in the shake-up but I'm not sure he quite has enough pace for this. I can see him staying on strongly but all too late.

Cue Card (11/1) - Well fancied for the Jewson before a decent effort in a good race at Newbury persuaded connections to target this race. I think the 2m trip will suit him here but my I have one huge concern with him, and that is his jumping. He is awkward at his fences, and even when on a perfect stride, does not jump fluently. More worrying still is that both trainer and jockey appear happy with his current fencing. If they acknowledged that it was an area of weakness then at least you could have confidence that steps were being taken to remedy the quite obvious flaws. The Arkle is a race that puts pressure on jumping and I can see it letting him down in a big way. He also tends to find little for pressure and I am sure he is not good enough to win this without coming off the bridle. I see no reason why he can beat his Supreme conquerors (Sprinter Sacre and Al Ferof) when both of them jump far better.

Menorah (12/1) - Unseated at Exeter when sure to win with a clear round. He was then put back over hurdles but finished a disappointing 5th in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham. Regained the winning thread at  Taunton but again showed jumping frailties when attempting to take the last home with him. He did jump well in the main and has a decent engine. He came up just a little short against the very best over hurdles (5th in the Champion) and my suspicion is that he might find it tough against the very best over fences too. He is another who will relish this test and is worthy of great respect, and ranks above Cue Card for me, but others are preferred.

Blackstairmountain (16/1) - A good hurdler with a Grade 1 win at Punchestown as a novice but short of the very top level in open company thereafter. Has made a smooth transition to fences with two wins from two starts, the last in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase. He looks likely to improve for better ground but you would have to think that a few of these might have too much for him.

For Non Stop (25/1) - Still a maiden over fences but has put up two good efforts in defeat. The first of those was when pushing Al Ferof all the way in the Grade 1 Henry VIII at Sandown, the second behind Cue Card in a good race at Newbury. He is a lively contender but his best hurdles form was over 2m4f and the Jewson looks the obvious choice given the strength of this field. He is good but not exceptional (remarkably only 1 win in 13 starts under rules) and this will take a career best to go close.

Bog Warrior (25/1) - As his name would suggest he relishes the mud and was hugely impressive when running away with the Grade 1 Drinmore. He destroyed a good field that day. He then crashed out early back in trip in the race won by Blackstairmountain, but was travelling strongly at the head of affairs when departing. His form looks strong with Flemenstar (easily beaten into 2nd on his first start) winning twice since. Clearly very talented (unbeaten when completing and held in the highest regard by his trainer) and a really exciting prospect. However, his preference for soft ground is a concern. Indeed, his trainer has suggested that he may not travel if the ground is too quick. Reported to be under the weather after his latest fall and that puts a further doubt on his participation. Also has the option of the RSA if he comes over.

Flemenstar (25/1) - No match for Bog Warrior on his chasing bow but has scored twice since, once by a wide margin. A decent horse no doubt but not the quality of some of these. Trainer has said he will not run because he is a poor traveller.

Solwhit (25/1) - Spent much of last season looking at the back end of Hurricane Fly. He was no match for that one but that is no disgrace at all given The Hurricane is a warm order to retain his hurdling crown. He has yet to be seen over fences but certainly has the ability to excel. He suffered a setback in November which delayed his fencing debut until this month at the earliest. The Arkle might come soon enough for him with no experience over fences yet under his belt.

Walkon (33/1) - Really impressive first time up when smashing Zaynar and Notus De La Tour at Exeter. Those two rivals boosted the form in no uncertain terms by winning a good race at Ascot and finishing 2nd in an Irish Grade 1 respectively. However, the horse himself was a disappointing 3rd behind Cue Card and is now set to be upped in trip with the RSA as a possible aim. Even before that defeat the Jewson was more likely so hard to think this will be on the agenda now. He ran well first time up last year and then his form tailed off a little and it might be that he is best caught fresh.

Salden Licht (33/1) - Another yet to make his fencing debut but was a good hurdler without threatening the top rank. Looks the type to make up into a fair chaser but will need to find a bit to trouble this field.

Kumbeshwar (33/1) - A smashing horse who enjoyed an excellent, if frustrating, juvenile campaign finishing 2nd at all three major Festivals. Made a seamless transition to fences at Hereford and then got closest to Zaynar at Ascot before winning again at Plumpton. That puts him in line for a big bonus and a tilt at the Grand Annual was mooted. Seems unlikely to come here.

Conclusion - I was certain that Peddlers Cross was the ideal type for this race and nothing has happened to change my opinion. What has happened is that Sprinter Sacre has announced himself as a chaser of enormous potential. He looks by far the best prospective 2m chaser of these but this is not necessarily a race that falls to the best 2miler. We need only look back to last season when Finian's Rainbow was outstayed by Captain Chris for evidence of that. Sprinter Sacre has pace and scope, and a fair dash of brilliance too, on what we have seen this season. He will be tough to beat in this but that is by no means an impossible task with concerns over his ability to handle the hill and his stomach for a fight. He was undoubtedly weak up the hill in the Supreme and that is the biggest concern for me. The fact that he is a free running extravagant jumper means that Barry Geraghty does not have the option to sit in quietly to conserve energy. He will most likely pull or jump his way to the front and I can see him doing too much at the head of affairs. That will set the race up for a strong stayer when they hit the rising ground. It is not impossible that Sprinter Sacre will be so far in front that this will be irrelevant but he will need to be truly exceptional to string out a field as good as this. Both Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof will be staying on strongly at the death and preference remains for Peddlers Cross who has just a touch more pace. Cue Card does not jump well enough for me and Menorah might just find a few too good again, as he did over hurdles. The rest look either short of the required level, unlikely to run, or both. I have backed Peddlers Cross already at 9/1, and a bit more at 6/1. I am still happy with those bets but would perhaps suggest I would rather they were EW than win only! Sprinter Sacre is the one to beat but I remain to be convinced about his suitability for this test. I can see him setting this up for one of the others and I fancy Peddlers Cross can prove the Kempton form all wrong and take this. He was talked of as one of the most exciting chasers for many a year before his Kempton defeat. With excuses to explain that performance it is best forgiven and we know he will relish the track, I think he can jump well and he also goes well after a break, so, whilst not being ideal, the fact that he may go their without another run is no disaster. At 6/1 he looks good EW value because even if Sprinter Sacre proves too strong I struggle to see him out of the first three. Is it worth backing him now? A very good question. Since Donald McCain confirmed that this remained his target, his position in the market has strengthened a good deal but I'm not sure his price will contract too much more. Both he and Sprinter Sacre may go straight there, so the sticking point is Al Ferof. His performance in the Victor Chandler will determine possibly his target (with the Champion Chase an alternative) but certainly his price. If he runs poorly there then Peddlers Cross might shorten but with slight doubts about his well being he is probably best left alone for the time being especially if, like me, you already hold an extensive collection of antepost vouchers. I was convinced he was the right type for the race and still think that he is. He might yet again come up against an exceptional adversary, as he did with Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle last year, in the shape of the hugely exciting Sprinter Sacre. However, back at Cheltenham, I fancy he can prove the Kempton run all wrong and win the Arkle this season. I was very confident before Christmas, I am less confident now, but I still think he can do it.