The Victor Chandler Chase promised to hold any number of clues about the 2m Championships at the Festival with Finian's Rainbow representing the more established division (though himself only a second season chaser) and Al Ferof the much vaunted crop of novices. Nicky Henderson's charge was the favourite on the back of 5 wins over fences, with his only defeat coming in the Arkle at last year's Festival. Al Ferof was next best for the young pretenders. However, this was no two horse race with established Grade 1 performers in Somersby, Gauvain, Wishfull Thinking and Forpadydeplasterer all taking their chance. However, I hoped that one of the favourites would win because the rest had an 'exposed at the top level' look to them. In contrast Finian's Rainbow was a potential threat to Sizing Europe's Champion Chase crown, and Al Ferof fancied to upset Arkle market leaders Sprinter Sacre and Peddlers Cross. In the end the result was something of a disappointment in my opinion, with Somersby, so often the bridesmaid, finally able to win his first Grade 1.
Somersby has been consistently exposed at the top level before and I cannot believe that he has improved to win this. I have him down as a 160 rated horse (or thereabouts). I definitely think that his 166 Official Rating is too high anyway. That was largely achieved on the back of his defeats to Master Minded, another who has been consistently overrated for a couple of seasons. However, he seems to like Ascot so I think it is fair to say that he has run up to around this level.
Finian's Rainbow is rated 157 and, with him being beaten by 1 1/4 lengths, it would appear that he has run to a fairly similar level to take 2nd in this. I suspect that he was a little below his mark at Kempton (for obvious reasons) and he has probably improved a few lbs here but certainly not enough improvement for him to be a Champion Chase contender.
I had Al Ferof rated 152 (in my Arkle piece) for his first win at Cheltenham, and similar at Sandown. He was a further 3 and 3/4 lengths behind so it seems that he has run to a broadly similar level too, maybe a few lbs improvement. He was outpaced virtually from the word go and looks for all the world like a step up in trip is what he wants. He won the Supreme with his stamina last year and he will need a similarly fast pace to have any chance in the Arkle.
You could easily rate the race around some of those in behind and push all these ratings up but I don't think that is justified. It is relatively easy to argue that contrary view, and I'm sure some people will, but it's not for me. In my opinion the ratings fall in very nicely using the logic I have applied above.
Festival Clues
First and foremost, Sizing Europe is starting to look a banker for the Champion Chase. I think his Tingle Creek win his head and shoulders above any other 2m form seen this season and he seems sure to be seen to better effect back on good ground round Cheltenham, his ideal conditions.
First and foremost, Sizing Europe is starting to look a banker for the Champion Chase. I think his Tingle Creek win his head and shoulders above any other 2m form seen this season and he seems sure to be seen to better effect back on good ground round Cheltenham, his ideal conditions.
Big Zeb has been beating Forpadydeplasterer by less than he was beaten today and the impression I have got is that Big Zeb isn't the horse he was in his prime. He was beaten in the Champion Chase by Sizing Europe last year by a comfortable 5 lengths and I see no reason why that form should be reversed, especially when Sizing Europe is a year younger. His defeat of Sizing Europe at Punchestown should be largely ignored because it is a track where Sizing Europe has been consistently below his best . This view is confirmed by connections, in particular Andrew Lynch who has said that the track doesn't suit his style of running.
Finian's Rainbow was the only danger I could see purely because of his scope to improve significantly on what he had previously shown. He had every opportunity to put himself firmly into the picture today but failed to do so and couldn't even win the race. This was certainly not the performance of a potential Champion Chaser and his weakness at the finish, both in the Arkle and today (though strangely not at Kempton last time) remains a concern, especially when encountering the Cheltenham hill. He has a lot to prove now and the quotes of 6/1 look far far too short. He has 20lbs to find with Sizing Europe on official ratings and I think that is about right.
I couldn't fancy Somersby for the Champion Chase because he still has a mountain to find with Sizing Europe and I see no reason why he should improve on his 12 1/2 length beating in the race last year. I also think that he will be vulnerable in the Ryanair which will surely be his intended target. He did not need to improve today to win so there is no reason why he should have shortened up in my opinion. He has just run to his usual (admirably consistent) level and that will always leave him vulnerable at the very top, regardless of the trip. Whether there is anything to beat him in the Ryanair is a different matter but I will be keen to find something to take him on with.
Wishfull Thinking was hugely disappointing again and he looks a shadow of the horse that was so impressive at the back end of last season. Connections find themselves between a rock and a hard place in that he will not settle in front and yet his relentless galloping and slick jumping from the front were what won him races last season. It is back to the drawing board after this.
The race obviously had an impact on the Arkle market and I must say that I was surprised to see Al Ferof shorten up into 5/1 in places after this result. Coral were the standouts who pushed him out to 8/1. To my eye he was never travelling and showed that he needs further than 2m. He looked outpaced right from the off. To be fair his jumping held together well until the home straight when it started looking just a little ragged. I have seen comments in quite a few places that he did his Arkle hopes big favours with this performance but I would disagree. I don't for a minute think that he did his chances any harm but I don't think that he improved greatly on anything he has previously shown. I had him rated 152 and he might have improved a few lbs but nothing significant. I just think he will be seen to much better effect over further. Indeed, his trainer Paul Nicholls has tweeted "Dont usually like getting beat but delighted with Al Ferof. Great prep for Arke. Will appreciate further nxt season". I actually thought it was a little disappointing that he couldn't put up more of a race to the leading duo (who are not up to the very top level on what we have seen) but would agree on the second point but I think he would appreciate further this season, let alone next. I know I keep saying that the Arkle is a race that suits stayers and it is. However, the problem that Al Ferof has is that I think Peddlers Cross has more pace than him and will stay just as strongly. Sprinter Sacre has the most pace but after his Supreme effort, the hill remains a concern for me. If Sprinter Sacre does get up the hill then he will be mighty hard to beat, and he might be so far in front that it is irrelevant too. However, I remain of the opinion that if Peddlers Cross runs his race then I think he will win. Provided that he jumps like he did at Bangor, I think it will take a huge performance to beat him in the Arkle. Sprinter Sacre might be capable of that huge performance, but I now don't think that Al Ferof is at 2m.
Finian's Rainbow was the only danger I could see purely because of his scope to improve significantly on what he had previously shown. He had every opportunity to put himself firmly into the picture today but failed to do so and couldn't even win the race. This was certainly not the performance of a potential Champion Chaser and his weakness at the finish, both in the Arkle and today (though strangely not at Kempton last time) remains a concern, especially when encountering the Cheltenham hill. He has a lot to prove now and the quotes of 6/1 look far far too short. He has 20lbs to find with Sizing Europe on official ratings and I think that is about right.
I couldn't fancy Somersby for the Champion Chase because he still has a mountain to find with Sizing Europe and I see no reason why he should improve on his 12 1/2 length beating in the race last year. I also think that he will be vulnerable in the Ryanair which will surely be his intended target. He did not need to improve today to win so there is no reason why he should have shortened up in my opinion. He has just run to his usual (admirably consistent) level and that will always leave him vulnerable at the very top, regardless of the trip. Whether there is anything to beat him in the Ryanair is a different matter but I will be keen to find something to take him on with.
Wishfull Thinking was hugely disappointing again and he looks a shadow of the horse that was so impressive at the back end of last season. Connections find themselves between a rock and a hard place in that he will not settle in front and yet his relentless galloping and slick jumping from the front were what won him races last season. It is back to the drawing board after this.
The race obviously had an impact on the Arkle market and I must say that I was surprised to see Al Ferof shorten up into 5/1 in places after this result. Coral were the standouts who pushed him out to 8/1. To my eye he was never travelling and showed that he needs further than 2m. He looked outpaced right from the off. To be fair his jumping held together well until the home straight when it started looking just a little ragged. I have seen comments in quite a few places that he did his Arkle hopes big favours with this performance but I would disagree. I don't for a minute think that he did his chances any harm but I don't think that he improved greatly on anything he has previously shown. I had him rated 152 and he might have improved a few lbs but nothing significant. I just think he will be seen to much better effect over further. Indeed, his trainer Paul Nicholls has tweeted "Dont usually like getting beat but delighted with Al Ferof. Great prep for Arke. Will appreciate further nxt season". I actually thought it was a little disappointing that he couldn't put up more of a race to the leading duo (who are not up to the very top level on what we have seen) but would agree on the second point but I think he would appreciate further this season, let alone next. I know I keep saying that the Arkle is a race that suits stayers and it is. However, the problem that Al Ferof has is that I think Peddlers Cross has more pace than him and will stay just as strongly. Sprinter Sacre has the most pace but after his Supreme effort, the hill remains a concern for me. If Sprinter Sacre does get up the hill then he will be mighty hard to beat, and he might be so far in front that it is irrelevant too. However, I remain of the opinion that if Peddlers Cross runs his race then I think he will win. Provided that he jumps like he did at Bangor, I think it will take a huge performance to beat him in the Arkle. Sprinter Sacre might be capable of that huge performance, but I now don't think that Al Ferof is at 2m.
Conclusion
I would be delighted if the form was rated highly by the majority because I don't like it at all. I was disappointed with both Finian's Rainbow and Al Ferof, and, consequently, could not fancy them for their respective Cheltenham targets. Similarly Somersby has been shortened up but without showing any improved form and he will surely be worth opposing in the Ryanair too. Both Finian's Rainbow and Al Ferof had the opportunity to stamp their mark on their Festival targets but both failed to do so. The very fact that Somersby was finally able to win his first Grade 1 at the 8th time of asking, or that this was just his 2nd Graded success in his career (only other in December 2009) tells you all you need to know. Somersby has always been exposed at the very top level so there is no reason to think that the same fate will not befall the horses he has beaten today. His success is thoroughly deserved but I am sure that there are no 2012 Festival winners to take from the race unless there are significant target changes. As for the future, Al Ferof remains a horse of potential when he is upped in trip.
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