Supreme Novices' Hurdle

After the running of the Tolworth Hurdle today the market for the Supreme has changed a good deal but still no stand-out contender has emerged from the chaos that currently persists. The current formlines suggest that there are any number of horses that are all very similar in ability and that is reflected in the market with the current favourite, Steps To Freedom, a best priced 10/1. That makes this race one of the most open antepost race, apart from the handicaps. Trying to come to any firm conclusions is a tricky business but I think a worthwhile one because if the winner can be unearthed then a handsome price will be the reward.

Steps To Freedom (10/1) - In my opinion he is a very shaky favourite indeed because his form looks none too strong now. I thought he was a little fortunate to beat Prospect Wells at Cheltenham back in November but the subsequent exploits of that horse have done little to enhance his claims. Ericht was back in 3rd and he has since been well beaten behind Colour Squadron and Montbazon at Newbury. He has not been seen since and the last I heard was that he was going straight to Cheltenham. Unless he has improved significantly I think he looks very vulnerable at the top of the market.

Waaheb (12/1) - A very promising individual indeed with 3 facile Bumper success before losing his unbeaten tag at the hands of the ill fated Lovethehigherlaw in the Punchestown Champion Bumper. He has not been seen since and if he takes to hurdling then he must surely hold every chance. However, given he has yet to be seen over hurdles in public he is impossible to recommend at 12/1. His return is something to look forward to because he could well add the star quality that this race currently lacks.

Simonsig (16/1) - Hacked up in two Points in Ireland before running away with the Champion Point-to-Point Bumper at Punchestown. He was then transferred to Nicky Henderson and was well touted for the staying novice races. He absolutely hacked up at odds of 1/5 on his first start, literally pulling Barry Geraghty's arms out the whole way up the straight. He then travelled all over the unbeaten Fingal Bay before tiring close home on testing ground at Sandown. Geraghty said he would improve for a sounder surface and it is impossible to think that a stronger pace will not be in his favour given how strongly he travels. Although he comes from a pointing background he looks to have abundant speed and to my eye this race looks there for the taking. Henderson has ruled out the 3m race (sponsored by his owner) and has said it will be between the Supreme and the Neptune, with preference for the Neptune. I think that is madness because he will meet Fingal Bay there. Depending on conditions I might fancy him to overturn the form but I think he would hold a favourites chance in this contest, with nothing of any great note yet to throw down a challenge. He looks really fast, is clearly very very good indeed and the Supreme test looks ideal. I hope he runs and as soon as connections (if they ever do) give any indication that they are aiming him at the race I will be on in a flash.

Galileo's Choice (16/1) - Ran most pleasingly when finishing best of all to be 2nd to Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal bond Novices' Hurdle. The winner did little for the form when beaten at odds on next time but that should not detract from his chance. He was held up that day and the winner got first run on him. The fact that he was able to get as close as he did, with 16 lengths back to the rest, is a testament to his ability. He seems to hurdle well, and considering he is rated 110 and is a Group 3 winner on the flat, he must command respect. He looks to be improving all the time and it will be interesting to see where he goes next. He seems sure to appreciate a sounder surface and rates an interesting contender.

Colour Squadron (16/1) - Threw away the Tolworth by hanging violently left handed near the finish. He is a decent horse having hacked up in a bumper and beaten the well regarded Montbazon on his second hurdle start. The first time he was beaten by It's A Gimme, who had just been beaten by Hazy Tom the time before at Aintree. His talent is there for all to see but I would be surprised if this test is what he wants. He appears more of a grinder than anything else and would surely appreciate a tougher test than he is likely to encounter in this.

Oscar Nominee (16/1) - Only quoted by Ladbrokes on the back of a ridiculously easy success at Southwell a few days ago. The form probably doesn't amount to much (the 2nd had previously been beaten further by both Prospect Wells and Molotof but it was certainly visually impressive. He was easily beaten on both Bumper starts and unless he has improve dramatically, which is not impossible, then he should have a bit to find with the principals. He remains one to watch for the time being.

Captain Conan (16/1) - Yet another for Nicky Henderson and this one the winner of the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle on his first start for the trainer. He has winning (albeit weak) form in France and kept on pleasingly at Sandown

Montbazon (20/1) - The apple of Alan King's eye and fancied by a few for this. He was a good bumper horse, winning the valuable Doncaster Sales race, and finishing 2nd behind subsequent Champion Bumper scorer Cheltenian and in the Aintree race behind Steps To Freedom. However, he was then beaten at Cheltenham first time this season, and then found Colour Squadron too good at Newbury on his hurdling bow. He is a talented horse but he just seems to be one for whom there is always an excuse. The test will suit him with good ground and a fast pace right up his street but he has not always looked the toughest and there might be a few too good.

Cinders And Ashes (20/1) - Just beaten by Broadbackbob on his hurdling bow after a costly mistake. Has since recorded two easy wins on soft ground but looks sure to be suited by better. He was a decent bumper a horse and will be a decent hurdler too but maybe a few too good.

Cash And Go (20/1) - Winner of the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas, beating the well touted Sous Les Cieux in the process. However, that was not a particularly taking performance and I suspect that another big step is required.

Darlan (20/1) - Still unbeaten after a bumper and two hurdles but hugely unimpressive at odds on when winning at Cheltenham. AP suggested that he is perhaps not as good as they had hoped and that looks the harsh truth.

Tetlami (20/1) - A winner at Sandown and Kempton in two starts over hurdles and the form has worked out fairly well with Knight Pass winning a handicap, albeit over 2m5f and off a mark of 125. He is thoroughly likeable but just appears to lack a touch of class. I may be wrong but he does not grab me at this stage.

Prospect Wells (25/1) - Easy winner at Chepstow when he really impressed me and then enhanced his reputation in defeat at Cheltenham. I thought he was possibly the best horse in the race that day and it is significant that his conqueror still heads the market, not a position he deserves in my opinion. He then won easily from subsequent scorer All The Aces at Newbury. However, I thought he looked a bit light that day and he has disappointed twice, running fairly in The Ladbroke, but very poorly in the Tolworth. That was an afterthought and I think it can be forgiven. I am not sure he is good enough to win a Supreme but he strikes me as the type to run well at a big price. His Tolworth effort has not put me off him at all but it has enhanced his price no end. In my book he remains one to consider, but probably on the day. 

Sous Les Cieux (25/1) - A Grade 1 winner when beating Galileo's Choice but put in his place at odds on last time behind Cash And Go. He looks like he wants a step up in trip and he is more interesting for the Neptune.

Distant Memories (25/1) - A very smart performer on the flat (Group 3 winner) and made a smooth transition to hurdles when winning easily at Limerick on heavy ground. The form is not worth a great deal but he is a horse with the potential to excel in this sphere. He is difficult to assess until we see him take on better horses.

Dylan Ross (25/1) - Winner of a maiden hurdle but beaten into 2nd on three subsequent starts upped in class. Not sure he is quite up to winning this.

Samain (25/1) - Racked up a hat-trick in bumpers and looked a really smart prospect last season. Has yet to be seen this season and his trainer Willie Mullins has suggested that he might be more of a Neptune type. The potential is there but it remains to be seen how he tackles the hurdles.

All The Aces (25/1) - No match for Prospect Wells on his hurdling bow at Newbury but easily scored next time at the same course. Would need to improve on that evidence and is another who might be headed to the Neptune.

Molotof (25/1) - A decent campaign as a juvenile last year, the highlight being a fair 2nd to Triumph winner Zarkandar at Kempton. Has scored three times this season, including a Grade 2 but just looks a little short of the top level. Barry Geraghty also suggested he would appreciate a step up in trip.

Mono Man (33/1) - Another for Nicky Henderson and an interesting one. I backed him on his first start at Newbury and he looked all over the winner before making a hash of the last. He took a while to pick up but was coming right back at the front two, It's A Gimme and Colour Squadron at the line. Has not been seen since but has the potential to improve.

Allure Of Illusion (33/1) - Another unknown quantity for Willie Mullins. Good bumper form (3rd at Aintree behind Steps To Freedom and Montbazon) but yet to be seen over hurdles.

Hazy Tom (40/1) - Unbeaten in 4 before finishing 3rd behind Molotof on ground softer than ideal. Back on good will see him to better effect but not sure he's quite good enough and might appreciate further.

It's A Gimme (Unquoted) - He is not quoted by any bookmakers and I'm not sure why. He has not been seen since November and can only assume he has suffered a setback. Horses that he has beaten are short in the market (Colour Squadron) so he deserves a quote at the very least, for all that I think he's not quite up to the task. 

Conclusion - A very open looking race and this fact is reflected in the prices with the bookies betting 10/1 the field. However, I cannot help but think that this is a race where there is scope for unearthing the winner if the right conclusions can be drawn. A lot of the form ties in together and I do not like any of it. Either this is a very weak renewal of the Supreme, which is entirely possible, or we have not seen the winner yet either at all or over the trip. I fancy it is the latter because I think Simonsig has an outstanding chance in this if he is allowed to take his chance. He is a 3m Point winner in Ireland but has looked all about pace since arriving on these shores. He stays 2m5f but looks to have pace to burn so I cannot see the drop in trip posing any problem at all. He travels really strongly meaning the strong pace is likely to suit and he will certainly get the trip well. He also looks a really classy prospect and on the current evidence looks a cut above the rest. The 16/1 available with Coral looks outstanding EW value if he runs, but that is the problem. In a recent At The Races interview trainer Nicky Henderson ruled out the 3m race and stated a preference for the Neptune over the Supreme. Fingal Bay has been pointed towards the Neptune since then so I am hoping that might lead to a change in course. I am not saying that Simonsig cannot win the Neptune because I'm sure he could, but the Supreme looks a very winnable race. The Fingal Bay form looks rock solid and he was cantering all over him before being outstayed on testing ground at Sandown. The better ground and fast run 2m of the Supreme look ideal. I am not sure he is a betting proposition until Henderson gives some indication of where he might be headed. If anything does suggest he is coming here then the advice is to get on and get on quickly. I think he will take all the beating. Prospect Wells has doubled in price since his Tolworth defeat but I think that is an overreaction. back on good ground after a break he is entitled to go well again and might reward EW support. Montbazon is well regarded but needs too many excuses for my liking but the race should suit him well. But perhaps the main danger will come from one we have yet to see over hurdles. There are a few lurking in the stable of Willie Mullins (Samain and Allure Of Illusion) and he could well have the Supreme winner sitting in his yard ready to be unleashed in the coming months. The same comment might apply to Dermot Weld's Waaheb. However, it is impossible to judge their merits until we have seen them over hurdles and from the current evidence available Simonsig rates a strong fancy. If he were a definite runner then I would be most bullish about his chances. As it is, I await with great eagerness for the news that Henderson has finally seen the light and will run him in the Supreme. It might be that he has a better candidate amongst his string of contenders but I find that hard to believe on what we have seen so far. Of his others I think Mono Man is the most interesting at 33/1. He should have won first time up in a good race and remains open to improvement. He looks sure to have this as his target and is the EW value at this stage. However, it is advisable to wait until he is entered again before committing any cash. Simonsig does not run then a rethink is required because I cannot fancy anything else at this stage. If he does then he rates a strong selection.