World Hurdle

Much like with the Champion Hurdle, this market looks exactly how we might have expected. The defending Champion Big Buck's a very warm order to retain his crown and make it an historic, and unprecedented, 4 wins in a row. 

Big Buck's (4/7) - He is the best staying hurdler I have ever seen, of that I am sure, and he might well be the best that anybody has ever seen. His dominance in this division is absolute. Each year a new young pretender emerges to threaten his crown, and each time he dismisses them with contemptuous ease. He only does enough to win so wide margin victories are never going to happen but his superiority cannot be doubted. The impression one gets is that he always has any amount in hand at the finish. He stays exceptionally well and has more than enough pace to cover anything else he is likely to face. His jumping is now assured and the occasional flat spots that characterised his early efforts now seem thin on the ground too. It appears and impossible task to beat him because the stronger the pace the easier he wins, and he showed last season that he has the tactical versatility and the ability to deal with a slower pace that does not play to his strengths. He has shown himself to be better than ever this season with a facile success at Newbury before demolishing his field at Ascot. He actually looked in trouble (very) briefly that day but as soon as Ruby awoke him from his slumber, he picked up Dynaste with embarrassing ease and fairly stormed home to win unchallenged. There are very few horses in the history of the game who would have legitimate claims in a World Hurdle, a Champion Hurdle (both Ruby and AP are adamant he has the pace for it), a Cheltenham Gold Cup (poor jumping or not his ability is phenomenal) and an Ascot Gold Cup on the level (would anything be able to touch him on the flat over 2m4f?). He rates absolute banker material. At this stage it is a re-mortgage the house job and just lump it on. Keep it simple, keep it big and count the winnings afterwards.

I heard the other day that if you had put £100 on him from the start of his 14 race winning streak and continued to reinvest your winnings each time you would have now surpassed the £1million mark. I have been with him right from the start and wish that I had taken advantage of that opportunity! 

Oscar Whisky (6/1) - The Nicky Henderson trained Oscar Whisky is the obvious challenger. He is the dominant force over 2m4f but challengers are thin on the ground in that division. He was 3rd in the Champion Hurdle last season, before winning the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f. This season he fell on his first start when upsides Overturn at the last in the Ascot Hurdle. It remains open to debate whether he would have won that day but whatever the result it would have been close. He has since recorded two facile successes at Cheltenham, never coming of the bridle on New Year's Day to account for the promising Poungach. He has yet to try 3m but there appears every chance he will get the trip. However, for me he is a very very good horse but not a brilliant one. He is thoroughly likeable but my suspicion is that he will always come up just a little short against the very best. This view is backed up by his record in that the only times he has been beaten (excluding his fall) are at the Cheltenham Festival when 4th in the Supreme and 3rd in the Champion. As such he has an almighty task on his hands trying to dethrone the colossus that is Big Buck's. He is not just the very best around, he is arguable the very best there has ever been. It will take a monumental effort to beat him, and whilst he is a worthy challenger, I would be surprised if he were to be treated any differently to anything else that has taken on the same task.

Thousand Stars (10/1) - Filled 4th place in the Champion Hurdle, and then a close 2nd in the Aintree Hurdle, both times just one place behind Oscar Whisky. He then went on to France and won the French Champion Hurdle over 3m2f at Auteuil in June. He has proven stamina and is still a horse on the upgrade in my opinion. I have had a little on him EW for the Champion Hurdle at 33/1 and I suspect that will be his Cheltenham target. I get the impression that his main aims are the Aintree Hurdle and the French Champion again. Therefore, connections would rather take the easier 2m route at Cheltenham than bottom him out over 3m in this.

Voler La Vedette (16/1) - Remarkably now the highest rated mare in Ireland, surpassing the mighty Quevega after a facile success in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown over 3m. She has form over 2m, 2m4f and now 3m so her target at Cheltenham is difficult to determine. I would imagine the Champion Hurdle is highly unlikely and completely off the radar but both the Mares Hurdle (2m4f) and this race must be under consideration. However, there is some doubt about whether she will even make the trip at all. That doubt is reflected by her being a best priced 16/1 with Sporting Bet but only 7/1 with Ladbrokes who are NRNB.

So Young (20/1) - Yet another challenger for Willie Mullins and a very interesting one too. He was backed like defeat was out of the question when sent of favourite for the Neptune. The rumour I heard was that he had demolished Quevega (who had hacked up in the Mares hurdle the previous day) in a gallop giving her a stone. That is almost certainly utter rubbish, or at least an exaggeration and in the end he could only finish 3rd but would undoubtedly been a lot closer without a mistake at the last. He then disappointed at Punchestown but that can be forgiven. This season he has scored impressively in two weak events, however, the strength of the form is impossible to determine. On the bare figures he has 25lbs to find with Big Buck's but I am sure that he is better than his current mark. I was most impressed with him last time (even if he was 1/8), showing a smart turn of foot over 2m. He has yet to try 3m but Mullins appears confident that he can excel over any trip. He is clearly held in high regard but remains something of an unknown quantity and it will be interesting to see how Mullins campaigns him in the lead up to the race.

Mikael D'Haguenet (25/1) - He looked to have the racing world at his feet when he completed a brilliant novice season (unbeaten in 6) with victory in the Neptune (then the Ballymore Properties) and at Punchestown. His chasing career never really took off, however, such was the regard in which he was held that he was still sent of 15/2 for the RSA despite being a maiden over fences. He then took a while to regain his sparkle back over hurdles but has recorded two straightforward victories this term and looks to be back on the road to a certain extent. He has yet to fulfil his early potential and he still has questions to answer but he would undoubtedly be dangerous if returning to his very best.

Mourad (25/1) - Beaten twice this term by Voler La Vedette and it is hard to see him improving upon his 3rd place finish in this last year. He is almost certainly flattered by his proximity to Big Buck's that day and whilst the return to good ground will suit it is hard to see him putting down a serious challenge.

Zaidpour (25/1) - Hugely impressive when winning the Royal Bond last year and was installed as favourite for the Supreme afterwards. Things subsequently fell apart as he was twice beaten as favourite in Ireland and then trailed in 7th in the Supreme. Mullins is adamant that he wasn't quite right at the end of last season and he has bounced back with two easy successes. He is obviously talented and the way he won his Royal Bond was so striking that it is difficult to forget. One downside is that it might be that he needs soft ground to show his best.

Dynaste (33/1) - Most impressive when winning the Fixed Brush Hurdle in a canter but only 4th when pitched in against Big Buck's at Ascot last time. His finishing position does not do justice to his performance as he was quite obviously second best. He set a frantic pace and ultimately paid the price. He is another who would prefer a bit of cut.

Restless Harry (33/1) - Ran away with the West Yorkshire Hurdle on his first start this year but has since been beaten twice over fences and put in his place when 3rd behind Big Buck's at Ascot. He was 9th in the World Hurdle last season and the good ground will probably prevent him faring much better this time around.

Fiveforthree (33/1) - Yet another Mullins inmate who was quietly fancied for the race last year. He finished only 8th but suffered a recurrence of an old injury and might be out for the season. He is talented but fragile and he must be doubtful to make the line-up. At the age of 10 his injuries might be catching up with him.

Five Dream (40/1) - Has twice finished 2nd to Big Buck's this season but hard not to think that there might be a few more filling the gap between them come Cheltenham. He is an honourable performer but limited and seems sure to be exposed in this. 

Conclusion - Big Buck's stands very tall indeed over this field and defeat seems unimaginable. Oscar Whisky is the obvious danger but he has fallen just short at both Cheltenham Festivals and it is hard to see that trend being reversed against a horse of the calibre of Big Buck's. The rest of the contenders are dominated by the Mullins trained battalion (Thousand Stars, So Young, Mikael D'Haguenet, Mourad, Zaidpour and Fiveforthree). For all the strength in numbers it is hard to think that any of them could dethrone the reigning Champion. However, given the strength of his team it will surely be sensible to take note of whoever he decides to send into battle here. As far as betting goes there seems little point getting involved antepost in this race. It is hard to fancy anything against Big Buck's and at 4/7 he is already short. He actually drifted on the day last season and the same might happen again this year. Unless things change dramatically between now and then it is surely a case of gathering as much as you can afford and lumping it on. He is a money machine, and the more you put in the more you get out. Perhaps the best EW value at this stage is Dynaste who I think is far better than the Ascot result would suggest. He is perhaps overpriced at 33/1. But I think it just a case of waiting until the day and lumping on the unbeatable Big Buck's to retain his crown.