Why Peddlers Cross Can Win The Arkle.

Since my Arkle preview I have been asked a few times how I could possibly think that Peddlers Cross will be able to reverse his comprehensive defeat at the hands of Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. I was confident that he could in my own mind but the doubts of others prompted me to take a thorough look at the formbook to either confirm that belief or prove myself wrong. I must first apologise for the crude and easily criticised analysis. However, I hope you can appreciate the points that are being made. This is what I found.

First up Peddlers Cross. His first performance is worthless as far as a rating goes with a near 5 length beating of a horse rated 120 worth little more than 130 with a big '+'. His second effort offers a greater insight. Minella Class was rated 148 over hurdles. It was his first start over fences but he jumped very well so there is no reason to think that he recorded a figure much below that. Let us say that he ran to 140 which I think is entirely fair. Peddlers Cross was giving him 10lbs and won easily by 8 lengths. It is not hard to think he is worthy of a rating 20lbs superior to Minella Class leaving him on a figure of 160. I would, therefore, be in agreement with the official handicapper here.  

The easiest way to work out the other form is to use Al Ferof as the benchmark. On his first chase start he beat Astracad by an easy 7 lengths. Astracad has since gone on to win a good handicap at Cheltenham off a mark of 138 and is now rated 145. So Al Ferof would be worthy of a rating around 152 for that first performance at Cheltenham for an easy 7 length beating of a 138 rated horse who is now rated 145. There doesn't seem to be any obvious reason why he should have improved hugely between then and Sandown, indeed he might have recorded a lower figure given that the pace and ground did not suit. He had the 137 rated Lancetto back in 3rd beaten 13 lengths. That would leave the 2nd For Non Stop on around 150 (he's actually rated 151 by the official handicapper), and Al Ferof on 1lb more. This would fit in perfectly with the Sandown performance being a touch below his effort at Cheltenham given that conditions were less in his favour. The Cheltenham race was on good ground with a fast pace which suited ideally. Therefore, that leaves Al Ferof on a peak figure of 152. The handicapper has yet to give him a rating so I cannot see how we compare!

For Non Stop then went on to finish 2nd at Newbury behind Cue Card. But first I must assess the 3^rd that day, Walkon. On his first start at Exeter he had easily beaten the then 142 rated Zaynar by 6 lengths. I should think putting him 8lbs clear would be fair, and would leave him with a figure just 3lb shy of his hurdles mark of 153 on 150. Zaynar then went onto Ascot and showed undoubtedly improved form to beat the 141 rated Frascati Park by 10 lengths. Everything seemed to fall right for him that day and a figure of around 150 appears about right (the handicapper agrees). This once again puts him onto the same mark as he is over hurdles. Notus De La Tour is a little trickier to rate with the only viable handle coming from the 135 rated Lucky William who finished 4th in the Racing Post Novice Chase. He was beaten nearly 7 lengths so that gives Notus De La Tour a figure of around 142. At Exeter he was carrying an 8lb penalty when beaten by Walkon and was nearly 3 lengths behind Zaynar. That would put him on around 140 leaving his weight adjusted figure for that performance at 148. The handicapper has him on 146 and I think it is reasonable to downgrade this form slightly given the subsequent exploits of both Walkon and Notus De La Tour. If I use the handicappers figure of 146 for Notus De La Tour then Walkon drops to 148 and Zaynar to 140 for this effort. I still think his Ascot rating of 150 is fair.

We then come to the Cue Card race. Cue Card beat For Non Stop by 4 lengths giving him 7lbs which would suggest a bare rating of 162. My gut feeling is that is on the high side. Walkon was disappointing after two bad mistakes in the home straight. He lost his form a little last season after a promising start so his running to around 140 (8lbs below his first time out figure) seems fair enough, especially given that he was eased when beaten, and it is easy to see why the official handicapper has him on 150, and I think a 2lb drop would be sensible seeing as I have him only on 148 at Exeter. This all falls into place and lends validity to Cue Card's official figure of 155.

However, given my misgivings about the rating I think it sensible to looks at some of Cue Card's earlier form. On his first start Cue Card beat the 142 rated Micheal Flips by a comfortable 3 and 1/2 lengths. Let us give that performance a rating in the region of 149 (having him value for double the winning distance). I think it is safe to ignore Silviniaco Conti from this analysis because he was unfit. Cue Card then unseated at Cheltenham before just getting touched off by Bobs Worth, giving him 7lbs. They had the 135 rated Mad Moose 35 lengths back in 3rd but he is not a viable yardstick given that he was not ridden out. So here we must return to hurdles ratings. Bobs Worth was rated 152 and Cue Card 155. I think it is fair to say that neither horse ran to their peak with the trip short of Bobs Worth's best. I feel confident in awarding Cue Card a rating of 149, the same he recorded when winning first time, leaving Bobs Worth on 150. If this in then adjusted for the weights Bobs Worth is left on 143. This looks fair seeing as he was beaten just over 5 lengths by the 159 rated Grands Crus up in trip next time who was eased slightly close home. This would give him a figure of around 150 (handicapper has him on 151), meaning he showed 7lbs improvement for the run and the step up in trip.

Cue Card seems to have recorded a new best at Newbury next time when beating For Non Stop and Walkon. The bare form could warrant a big rating (possibly as high as 162 if you believe For Non Stop ran to his official mark of 151) but given the performance and his previous chase form I would be happier with a more conservative appraisal of the form. An improved rating is perfectly plausible given that the trip was more suitable on this occasion. Cue Card's current official mark is 155. If he ran to that level in this then that would push For Non Stop down to a mark of around 145. Given his mistakes a lower figure than his Sandown effort is believable but that does seems a big drop seeing as he looked to appreciate the step up in trip. Walkon was a further 11 lengths behind and I am sure that he was below his Exeter form. His performance here would warrant around 140 which is exactly as I would expect lending a sense of authority to the ratings. I have Minella Class running to a figure of 140 in defeat behind Peddlers Cross but given the way he travelled in this race it is possible he is worthy of more. I suspect this trip was ideal and he might well have gone close. However, he departed too early to be confident about assigning the performance a rating.

It is trickier trying to put a figure on Sprinter Sacre. My gut instinct is about 165. In his first start at Doncaster he beat a 135 rated horse that was eased by 24 lengths with ease. Given both horses were eased to a certain extent I think a figure of round about 155 is the right way to go (already a 6lb improvement on his hurdles peak of 149). This would be supported by the Wayward Lad market which made Peddlers Cross a slight favourite as they would have gone into that race with figures of 160 and 155. The Wayward Lad itself is virtually impossible to rate. If you believe Peddlers Cross ran to form (160) then Sprinter Sacre's easy 16 length beating warrants a huge rating. Both were eased near the finish, possibly Peddlers Cross more, but Sprinter Sacre was not extended either. I think it is therefore reasonable to suggest that the 16 length winning margin is a true reflection of Sprinter Sacre's superiority on the day. If Peddlers Cross ran to his mark of 160 then that makes Sprinter Sacre worthy of a figure of around 175. For all his brilliance, I find that very hard to believe. What is more likely (and this is my opinion now) is that Peddlers Cross was roughly 10lbs below form. That would leave him with a figure of 150, and give Sprinter Sacre a figure of 165, incidentally exactly my gut instinct mentioned earlier. This is open to interpretation but I think that is a fair reflection.

If we look back at past running of the Arkle a figure of 165 would have been sufficient to win 9 of the last 10 renewals. Recent winners were rated after the race; Captain Chris 160, Sizing Europe 160, Forpadydeplasterer 156, Tidal Bay 166, My Way De Solzen 159, Voy Por Ustedes 162, Contraband 153, Well Chief 146, Azertyuiop 161 and Moscow Flyer 159. Interestingly Peddlers Cross' figure of 160 means he has already recorded a figure good enough to win (or dead heat) 7 of the last 10 too. Just goes to prove that this year's novices are as exceptional as they look.

By this analysis I have the list for the Arkle as follows (some are unlikely to run):

Sprinter Sacre - 165
Peddlers Cross - 160 
Cue Card - 155
Al Ferof - 152
For Non Stop - 151
Zaynar - 150
Walkon - 148
Notus De La Tour - 146

As I suggested in my Arkle preview, If you look at the last 5 winners of the race it is apparent that the ability to stay further than 2m is essential:

Captain Chris 160 - Winner over 2m5f over fences.

Sizing Europe 160 - Winner over 2m4f on heavy ground over fences.

Forpadydeplasterer 156 - Only chase win was over 2m on heavy ground but had finished 2nd in two Grade 1s over 2m4f and 2m5f.

Tidal Bay 166 - Grade 2 hurdle winner over 2m4f. Chase winner over 2m4f (twice) and 2m5f. Only chase defeat before the Arkle came over 2m1f at Doncaster.

My Way De Solzen 159 - World Hurdle winner and chase winner over 2m4f and 2m5f on heavy ground. 

With this in mind, If I then factor this in to my ratings which I have derived from the formbook, with my own opinions about each horse’s suitability for the test that the Arkle presents, I arrive at the following figures (only potential Arkle candidates included this time):

Peddlers Cross - 160 (+5lbs for improvement for the track) - 165
Sprinter Sacre - 165 (-5lbs for question marks about the hill) - 160
Al Ferof - 152 (+5lbs for improvement for the track) - 157 
For Non Stop - 151 (Stays the same but doubtful runner) - 151
Cue Card - 155 (-5lbs for finding little off the bridle and the hill) - 150

It has been hyped up to be the best renewal in years and I think it is worthy of all the acclaim. Given the phenomenal strength of this season's novices, I fully expect the 10 year high rating of 166 to be broken in this year's renewal. By my reckoning Sprinter Sacre has already achieved a mark of around the 165 mark, good enough to win 9 of the past 10 renewals, and that was unextended. Furthermore, both Peddlers Cross and Al Ferof recorded their high ratings unextended too, giving an indication of just what might be to come. From the figures above I would think that improvement of 5lb all round would not be inconceivable. It would be no surprise to me if the winner broke the 170 barrier this time around, in fact, I would go so far as to say that I expect it to happen.

At this stage I would conclude that Peddlers Cross wins by 5 lengths (170) from a tiring Sprinter Sacre (165) and a fast finishing Al Ferof (162).

This analysis might be open to interpretation, criticism and even ridicule but one thing cannot be doubted. It does show just what an exceptional crop of 2m novice chasers we have to enjoy, with at least three horses who would have the ability to win most renewals of the race. 

Whatever you think, whichever side of the fence you sit, whoever you want to win, just one thing is of paramount importance. That is that we all enjoy what is a remarkable crop of novice chasers who promise so much for years to come. The three leading contenders all look well capable of recording a figure that would comfortably win virtually any previous renewal of the race. Whatever the outcome it is a race to savour. At this stage I can only hope that they all turn up ready to fight for their lives. Then we can look forward to one hell of a race.