Champion Chase

I think that most would agree that the Champion Chase currently lacks the fierce interest that the other Championship events have generated. Arguably that owes more to the strength of the other races rather than any weakness in this. After all there is set to be two previous Champion Chasers lining up come March. However, just looking at those quoted indicates that genuine contenders are thin on the ground with a whole heap of them intended starters in the Ryanair, which, incidentally, is looking like one hell of a race.

Sizing Europe (11/4) - The reigning Champion and it is easy to see why he sits at the head of the market as he attempts to retain his crown. He has an excellent Cheltenham record (also a winner of the Arkle), likes spring ground, and has already won the premier trial for the race (Tingle Creek in December at Sandown). His credentials are there for all to see and now connections have shelved plans to turn him into a 3 miler for the immediate future he will surely hold every chance in March. My one doubt about him is that at 10 years of age he isn't getting any younger. However the next in the betting are Big Zeb (11) and Finian's Rainbow (9) so the race seems to be dominated by the older generation at this stage. It is nevertheless a small worry but given he is proven at the track and has the form in the book he is a worthy market leader.

Big Zeb (5/1) - He lost his crown last season and it will be a big ask to regain it at 11 years of age. It might not be an impossible task though as he has looked as good as ever in two straightforward wins this season. There were originally doubts about whether he would take his chance in this but those seem to have been tempered in the aftermath of his latest win. He has not been out of the first two since running a clunker in the 2009 Tingle Creek behind the ill fated Twist Magic, and that disappointing effort is the only time he has finished unplaced when completing. That is not a record to be sniffed at but there appears no obvious reason why the form of last season's renewal should be reversed, especially as Sizing Europe heads here in better form this time around.

Finian's Rainbow (8/1) - He was due to take on the big guns in the Tingle Creek but missed that engagement after a small setback. His long awaited reappearance came in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton when he eventually won in convincing style, despite a less than ideal trip in an eventful race. He was clearly the best horse on the day and entitled to improve for the run. He is set to step up to Open Grade 1 company in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot on the 21st January and that will tell us more about his chances. He has only been beaten by one horse since turning his hand to chasing and that was Captain Chris in the Arkle last season. He jumped fantastically well out in front before tiring up the hill and being collared by the stronger stayer and he will need to reign in his obvious enthusiasm to enable him to come up the hill stronger this time. I am convinced that Captain Chris is not a 2 miler and the fact that he was beaten by that rival in the Arkle must leave question marks about his own ability at the trip. However, he is still relatively unexposed and demands respect.

Captain Chris (14/1) - There is virtually zero chance of him running in this. He looks far more likely to take his chance in either the Gold Cup or the Ryanair. And even if he did line up here he would lack the necessary pace to threaten the principals. He got away with it in the Arkle but it is hard to see him pulling off the same trick in Open company. I would be most disappointed if he were to line up in this when, in my opinion, he should be taking his chance in the Gold Cup.

Noble Prince (16/1) - Trainer Paul Nolan has said that "the Ryanair Chase will be his target - that will be his only entry at Cheltenham". That makes perfect sense seeing as he is clearly behind Big Zeb (beaten twice this season) in the 2 mile pecking order.

Kauto Stone (25/1) - He ran well in defeat in the Tingle Creek proving that he was a Grade 1 performer even if not quite the second coming of his illustrious brother. However, Ruby Walsh said immediately after the race that he wanted further and Paul Nicholls has stated that the Ryanair will be his target.

Realt Dubh (25/1) - Third to Captain Chris in the Arkle and 2nd at Punchestown behind the same horse but a good winner of the Powers Gold Cup over 2m4f in between. He is another who looks headed for the Ryanair if he makes the Festival at all.

Wishfull Thinking (33/1) - Finally a horse that looks all set to run in this race. Trainer Philip Hobbs said in a recent interview that Captain Chris wouldn't be targeted at this race for the very reason that the owners already had Wishfull Thinking for it. He was most disappointing in his first two efforts when well beaten on both occasions. He showed a return to form of sorts behind Finian's Rainbow last time, for all that that effort was still a long way shy of his best form. He still has question marks to answer, especially in regard t his breathing, but he showed his best form in the spring last year, and if returning to the same form would certainly be worth his place in the line up.

Flat Out (33/1) - I had a small bet on him for the Arkle last season after he unseated when looking to be travelling well at Leopardstown in January in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle. He is clearly well regarded (also ran in the Supreme on just his 2nd hurdles start and finished 5th). The huge doubt is that he has not been seen since that unseating. He remains an unknown quantity and could be one to pop up with a big chance. He was entered for the Paddy Power, and that might suggest that 2m4f will be his trip but I have heard nothing as to his well being since. A definite dark horse, and when I say dark I mean black as night.

Ghizao (33/1) - Has been well beaten on all three starts this season in handicaps and looks to have massive questions to answer. He showed good form early last season, and gave Finian's Rainbow a race at Aintree, but he has shown nothing this term to suggest he could win this. Nicholls thought he would be a proper contender so it might be that something comes to light to explain his poor performances. Impossible to fancy at this stage.

Gauvain (33/1) - A winner at Cheltenham and at Huntingdon in the Peterborough Chase this season. His form tailed off last season but he looks to be holding it better this time. However, the Ryanair is a more likely target, a race he ran in last season. If he took his chance here he would have a fair bit to find judging by his form with Master Minded.

Captain Cee Bee (33/1) - A backed him for last season's Champion Chase in March of the preceding year (2010) after he was a beaten favourite for the Arkle and again on the day, both EW. I got a return for my investment as he finished 3rd but it is hard to see him improving upon that effort. He is very talented on his day but that day has surely passed at the age of 11. He has a bit to find with the principals and no reason to think he can do it.

Somersby (33/1) - After running a decent 4th in the King George Henrietta Knight originally nominated the Gold Cup as his target but that has subsequently been revised to the Ryanair. Not impossible that she might change her mind again but unlikely that he will end up in this and even if he does he is not good enough. 

Medermit (33/1) - I am surprised that he is widely quoted because he is another headed for the Ryanair, but unlike with the others already mentioned, there is no reason whatsoever to think that this race has ever been under consideration.

Conclusion - If you eliminate all the horse that are almost certain not to run and all the horses that are almost certain to not be good enough you arrive at a very select list. On my list would be Sizing Europe, Big Zeb, Finian's Rainbow, Wishfull Thinking and Flat Out. Sizing Europe looks to be a worthy favourite given that he is the reigning Champion and has looked as good as ever this season. Big Zeb's form ties in closely with him, and they are closely matched, but given that he is a year older and was beaten (with no obvious excuses) last year he can be eliminated too. Finian's Rainbow is a horse that I like and I am not sure why. Captain Chris has never been a 2 miler for me and he was only getting away with it at the trip rather than relishing it. How, therefore, can I possibly think that a horse that was comfortably beaten by him over this course and distance can win the Champion Chase against the elite in that division? It is a very good question and one that I am struggling to answer. It is hardly like he is open to bundles of improvement as he is already aged 9. I would have to nominate the weak and feeble justification of gut instinct. I just think he is dangerous, but I find it hard to justify why. Wishfull Thinking has been below par this season so far but he would definitely be dangerous if he returned to his best form. However, I am still uncertain whether even his very best form would be good enough to take this. Flat Out is the complete unknown quantity. I know nothing about his well being and cannot find anything on the internet either. I am not sure whether the fact that he was entered in the Paddy Power is a positive or not. It must mean he is in training but does the fact that he is still yet to reappear (the Paddy Power was back in November) mean that he has suffered another setback. One definite positive is that he is a sensible price on Betfair which would suggest that all is well. Therefore, my three for the race at this stage would be Sizing Europe, Finian's Rainbow and Flat Out. It is impossible to know what the situation is with Flat Out and as a result difficult to recommend him. Sizing Europe is a worthy favourite and looks a fair price at 11/4. However the horse that looks most likely to shorten is Finian's Rainbow. If he were to win the Victor Chandler on the 21st then his price is sure to collapse. Is it worth taking your chance now? I'm not sure. There was 9/1 available a couple of days to go so his price is definitely shortening all the while. 8/1 might look a big price is he wins, but it might look pretty poor if he doesn't. However, if he doesn't win that would make Sizing Europe look like banker material. It is hard to see Sizing Europe getting any bigger (indeed 11/4 looks more than fair and unlikely to last long) and Finian's Rainbow will either shorten or be a write off after the Victor Chandler. Therefore, a dutching win bet would be the best advice. Whatever the outcome in the Victor Chandler a strong position will be guaranteed. If Finian's Rainbow wins he will shorten and Sizing Europe will remain steady. If he loses then he will drift and Sizing Europe will remain steady. If there were any positive noises about Flat Out he might be worth considering, but until that point he looks best left alone.

It might also be advisable to consider the possibility that a novice might take their chance in this. I would rate it as unlikely but given the strength of the Arkle and the relative weakness of this race I am sure that the thought has crossed a few trainers' minds. The obvious candidate is Sprinter Sacre but Nicky Henderson already has Finian's Rainbow so I would be very surprised if he were to choose to be double handed in this. Peddlers Cross seems an unlikely option, as does Cue Card, and Menorah, and pretty much anything else. You will notice that there is one glaring omission from that list and that is Al Ferof. Paul Nicholls appears to have nothing of note for the Champion Chase. Kauto Stone goes for the Ryanair, Tataniano is injured, Ghizao and Woolcombe Folly are out of form. But he does not have an obvious alternative Arkle candidate either. He is entered for the Victor Chandler Chase (an Open Grade 1) where he will meet Finian's Rainbow. If he were to take his chance that would give us a fair idea about where he stands, and just how good the novices might be. If he were to win that well, then the idea of running in the Champion Chase to avoid Sprinter Sacre et al in the Arkle must at least cross connections' minds. It would seem unlikely but perhaps worthy of consideration, perhaps not. I do not think it is ludicrous to suggest that the Arkle might take more winning than the Champion Chase this season. Sizing Europe apart, it looks a weak field, whereas the Arkle looks anything but with fantastic strength in depth. I would be surprised if it did happen but do think it worthy of a thought.