Jewson Novices' Chase

This race was run for the first time last year with Noble Prince getting the better of Wishfull Thinking. The intermediate trip and its current Grade 2 status can lead to it being considered a bit of a consolation race but I think that is a little unfair, even if there is an element of truth in it. If it gets upgraded to Grade 1 status then I can see it becoming a prestigious heat with the demands of the RSA very taxing on young and inexperienced horses. There are plenty currently quoted who look set to miss the race, especially those at the head of the market, which hopefully leaves the race ripe for some antepost value.

Peddlers Cross (6/1) - I have covered him in depth in the Arkle preview and that is his target. I'd be surprised and disappointed if he came here.

Grands Crus (7/1) - Connections are considering running in either the Gold Cup (70%) or the RSA (30%). A run in this seems unlikely.

Al Ferof (8/1) - He is another with the Arkle as his primary target, and the Champion Chase looks a more likely alternative than this.

Silviniaco Conti (8/1) -  He is shorter in the betting for this than for the Arkle or the RSA. I have backed him for the latter heat at 20/1 so am hoping that he goes there. Trainer Paul Nicholls suggested in the aftermath of his 2nd place in the Feltham that he might even miss the Festival this year. At that time Grands Crus looked to be headed for the RSA Chase, and Nicholls was keen to avoid a rematch. However, with Grands Crus seemingly more likely to run in the Gold Cup, and Sonofvic disappointing in the Dipper, I am very hopeful that Silviniaco Conti will be allowed to take his chance in the RSA. Would have a strong chance in this but I think he will bypass it.

Cue Card (10/1) - Was favourite for this race for a time but after his win at Newbury he looks set for the Arkle. He has always promised to be better for a step up in trip but I am not so sure. He was weak at the finish in the Supreme, weak when beaten by Bobs Worth at Newbury over 2m4f, and being closed down all the while when winning last time over 2m3f. He does not find a lot off the bridle in my view, he jumps poorly and I would be keen to oppose him wherever he goes.

Sir Des Champs (12/1) - Unbeaten since switching to jumps. That run has included two hurdle races, a handicap hurdle win at the Festival and two chases, jumping well on both starts. However, he looks sure to benefit from a step up in trip. He was a long way back in the Martin Pipe before staying on really strongly. I don't think that was a strong race and I suspect he got away with it at the trip. The RSA looks the more obvious target but Gigginstown do have other contenders for that race so he might come here instead. Worthy of respect but think the 2m5f on good ground will be a quick enough test for him.

Solix (12/1) - A smart hurdler last season but was just biding time until he went chasing. Made an adequate start at Ascot but his jumping left a little to be desired and it was the same story back at Cheltenham next time. However, he jumped much better in defeat behind Champion Court last time and looks to be getting his act together. This looks the ideal race for him, a comment which applies to very few of the others.

Bog Warrior (12/1) - Also a possible for the Arkle and the RSA and I should think one of those will be his target if he comes across from Ireland. Very talented but suffered a fall last time and reportedly took a bit of time to get over that. Back on the go now but a doubt for the Irish Arkle which may come too soon. Trainer thinks he needs soft ground.

Walkon (14/1) - Really good first time at Exeter but disappointing last time at Newbury behind Cue Card. Questions to answer now and likely to be stepped up in trip for a tilt at the RSA. If that doesn't come off then he might come back in trip for this. However, his form tailed off last season and it might be the same story this time around.

For Non Stop (14/1) - Yet to win over fences but has twice run well in defeat, finishing 2nd to Al Ferof and filling the same spot behind Cue Card last time. This looks the ideal test for him as he has been staying on strongly on both occasions over shorter trips, plus he showed his best hurdles form over 2m5f too. He seems to jump well enough (though did make mistakes in the home straight at Newbury), and he already looks a better chaser than he was hurdler. One worrying statistic is that he has won just once in 13 starts. Not certain to run at Cheltenham.

Hidden Cyclone (14/1) - Always held in high regard and his only defeat remains a very close 3rd behind First Lieutenant in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle. He made a pleasing start to his chasing career with a comfortable victory at Leopardstown. The RSA is a more likely target but he is by no means certain to travel.

Mossley (14/1) -  Beat Champion Court but behind Join Together at Cheltenham and I must say he was a little disappointing. His jumping has been nothing better than adequate on both starts and he might just fall a little short of the top level over fences. He did find only stablemate Bobs Worth too good in the Albert Bartlett last season and the staying test of the RSA looks more likely.

Champion Court (16/1) - Only 3rd behind Join Together but seemed to relish the drop back in trip and a return to forcing tactics when a good winner of the Dipper. Trainer stated that the RSA will be his target if Grands Crus does not run but if he does then he will go down the handicap route. That seems a perplexing choice with this race, the obvious target in my opinion, not even mentioned. I would like his chances in this and 16/1 is a very good EW price if he were to run. Trainer apparently has other ideas.

Zaynar (16/1) - A one time top class hurdler and he was favourite for the Champion Hurdle at one stage before that infamous defeat at odds of 1/14. Made a fair start to his chasing career and signs that he was returning to something like his best. Those signs were confirmed with an impressive all the way win at Ascot. This trip will suit and if returning to his best (rated 168 over hurdles) then he could go well.

Invictus (20/1) - Started his chasing career with two impressive wins, most notably at Plumpton when he quickened impressively to leave his rivals for dead round the home turn. Slightly disappointing when only 3rd in the Dipper but he was found to have lost a show after the race which might explain that effort. It was no disgrace and that might be as good as he is. He was only rated 122 over hurdles so he has already found significant improvement for the step up to fences.

Minella Class (20/1) - Second to Peddlers Cross at Bangor which was a pleasing effort and was then travelling well when an unlucky slip on landing unshipped David Bass at Newbury. I fancy he would have gone close in that race won by Cue Card. A Grade 1 winner over hurdles and not disgraced when 6th in the Neptune at the Festival. Just suspicion that he might be trip-less with him lacking the toe for 2m but not quite seeing out the 2m5f round Cheltenham.

Notus De La Tour (20/1) - Won two minor races before finishing only 3rd to Walkon at Exeter. A good second to Blackstairmountain in an Irish Grade 1 subsequently but looks to appreciate soft ground. Eligible for the big bonus having won at Plumpton and a handicap may be the chosen route. His current mark of 146 looks fair enough given that he looks set to make a better chaser than he was a hurdler.

Poungach (20/1) - Stays over hurdles for the rest of this season with chasing the aim next term. He is a lovely individual and will make a cracking chaser next season.

First Lieutenant (20/1) -Winner of the Neptune and looked sure to take high rank in the staying chasers this season. Things have not gone entirely to plan with only two wins from five starts. Still shown some very decent form and set to go straight to the RSA when the good ground will suit him better. An unlikely runner here.

Lambro (25/1) - Second to Flemenstar last time over 2m and this 2m5f trip would be more to his liking. A decent horse without looking exceptional and no idea what Mullins' plan is for him. Suspect he might find a few too good here.

Call The Police (25/1) - Very strongly fancied for the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival and was sent off the 7/2 favourite. In the end he trailed in 11th, beaten 25 lengths and was then pulled up at Punchestown. Got back on track with an easy win at Gowran on his fencing debut and looks capable of better. He looks more the type for a handicap.

Kumbeshwar (25/1) - Winner of two from 3 over fences and another eligible for the big Plumpton bonus. Trainer has suggested that the Grand Annual will be his target.

Solwhit (25/1) - Yet to be seen over fences but was very near the top level over hurdles, with only Hurricane Fly too good in Ireland. Also has the Arkle as a possible target but will need experience.

Conclusion - An open looking race and one that is difficult to assess with so many doubts about who will run. I would be keen on Champion Court at 16/1 EW if he were a likely runner but his trainer Martin Keighley has said it will be either the RSA or a handicap for him. Therefore, I think the best bet lies with the horse that was second to him in the Dipper, and came off best at the weights anyway. That horse is Solix. He looks the one ideally suited by the likely conditions and remains open to improvement with his jumping getting better with each start. He has course experience which will stand him in good stead for this. At 12/1 he looks a good EW price seeing as he looks a certain runner barring mishaps. The same cannot be said for many of the others (if any, remarkably) and he seems certain to go off a far shorter price on the day, if not favourite. There is still time for other candidates to emerge, either stepping up in trip from the Arkle or down in trip from the RSA but he looks to hold a strong form chance on current evidence. At the price the risk looks worth taking.